What are Tesla's other 'Cards'?

Cattledog · Aug 9, 2014

Probably the most intriguing part of the recent earnings call was Elon's reference to 'there are things you don't know about' and 'we're not showing you all our cards'. So given that the cards are likely either 1. long-term things being accelerated, or 2. new things, here are some speculations:

1. Tesla Factory in China more imminent than we expect. Lots of govt. incentives.
2. Tesla Gigafactory in China more imminent due to #1. Ditto.
3. Model 3 coming out more quickly (reveal 2015, PR late deliveries in 2016, massive deliveries in 2017).
4. Compact SUV '3X' coming out at the same time as Model 3.
5. In order to satisfy US appetite, Tesla Pick-up truck coming in next 3-4 years.
6. Auto-Pilot comes out with X, immediately available for S.
7. AWD with S concurrent with X.
8. Bigger battery for S (at least 100kWh) and X.
9. Rear view cameras available with X & S, integrated with autopilot (yes, they provide a picture you can see, but they also make the car smart for lane changes, etc.)
10. Rear touch screen in Model X, for infotainment, backseat arguments, etc.
11. Swivel seats in 2nd row of X.
12. New Roadster on Model 3 platform.
13. Deal with someone who has land and $$ to provide 1000s of superchargers across the country/world.
14. Fixed storage contracts with utilities/big institutional clients in the range of 100s of mWhs or even gWhs.
15. Free service for 8 years, 125k miles for all cars, retroactive to every Tesla.
16. Megadeal with BMW. (Gigadeal?)
17. New Service Centers and Stores to cover South America and Africa.
18. Secret deal with California to locate Gigafactory in California in exchange for exclusive rights for Tesla to develop the Hyperloop between LA and SF (hyper cool!).
19. TSLA shareholders allowed insider access to buy SPCX shares.
20. Optional 'Spouse/Partner Swap' at all battery swap stations.

OK, off to see if anyone showed up for the San Antonio drive event today - please add!

DaveT · Aug 9, 2014

A couple ideas that people aren't mentioning:
- Tesla has recently purchased 1-2 battery startups and is working on some promising next generation battery tech
- Tesla has been working on inverter technology and will be releasing an inverter for the residential solar market

Chickenlittle · Aug 9, 2014

DaveT said:
A couple ideas that people aren't mentioning:
- Tesla has recently purchased 1-2 battery startups and is working on some promising next generation battery tech
- Tesla has been working on inverter technology and will be releasing an inverter for the residential solar market

purchases of other companies would require disclosure since they are public listed company

- - - Updated - - -

Cattledog said:
Probably the most intriguing part of the recent earnings call was Elon's reference to 'there are things you don't know about' and 'we're not showing you all our cards'. So given that the cards are likely either 1. long-term things being accelerated, or 2. new things, here are some speculations:

1. Tesla Factory in China more imminent than we expect. Lots of govt. incentives.
2. Tesla Gigafactory in China more imminent due to #1. Ditto.
3. Model 3 coming out more quickly (reveal 2015, PR late deliveries in 2016, massive deliveries in 2017).
4. Compact SUV '3X' coming out at the same time as Model 3.
5. In order to satisfy US appetite, Tesla Pick-up truck coming in next 3-4 years.
6. Auto-Pilot comes out with X, immediately available for S.
7. AWD with S concurrent with X.
8. Bigger battery for S (at least 100kWh) and X.
9. Rear view cameras available with X & S, integrated with autopilot (yes, they provide a picture you can see, but they also make the car smart for lane changes, etc.)
10. Rear touch screen in Model X, for infotainment, backseat arguments, etc.
11. Swivel seats in 2nd row of X.
12. New Roadster on Model 3 platform.
13. Deal with someone who has land and $$ to provide 1000s of superchargers across the country/world.
14. Fixed storage contracts with utilities/big institutional clients in the range of 100s of mWhs or even gWhs.
15. Free service for 8 years, 125k miles for all cars, retroactive to every Tesla.
16. Megadeal with BMW. (Gigadeal?)
17. New Service Centers and Stores to cover South America and Africa.
18. Secret deal with California to locate Gigafactory in California in exchange for exclusive rights for Tesla to develop the Hyperloop between LA and SF (hyper cool!).
19. TSLA shareholders allowed insider access to buy SPCX shares.
20. Optional 'Spouse/Partner Swap' at all battery swap stations.

OK, off to see if anyone showed up for the San Antonio drive event today - please add!

before posting it would be wise to read the transcript. he referred to things you dont know about in reference to increased R and D spending. many items on your list do not fall into that category

DaveT · Aug 9, 2014

Chickenlittle said:
purchases of other companies would require disclosure since they are public listed company

Not necessarily, especially if the startup acquired is small. Apple acquires a lot of small startups very secretively.
For a public company, when does the size of an acquisition have to be disclosed publicly? - Quora

Doug_G · Aug 9, 2014

They're doing a lot of stuff in grid storage that you don't hear much about. That's one possible area for big developments.

Perfectlogic · Aug 9, 2014

"19. TSLA shareholders allowed insider access to buy SPCX shares."
This please, too bad it won't happen. Something not mentioned is Tesla working on an electric plane, I seem to stand alone on thinking this is a possibility but I am pretty sure it at least is more likely than us getting in on Space X, Elon has talked so much about the electric plane, so why not. I don't think the secret project (cards not being shown) is on grid storage as that is about as secret as the model X.

Cattledog · Aug 9, 2014

Chickenlittle said:
purchases of other companies would require disclosure since they are public listed company

- - - Updated - - -

before posting it would be wise to read the transcript. he referred to things you don't know about in reference to increased R and D spending. many items on your list do not fall into that category

I did, and listened to the call live, and listened again a couple nights later. I prefaced my post by saying that I though not showing all the cards might be them accelerating some things we do know about so that we'd see them faster. I threw a few things that I have not heard or read anywhere, that range from plausible (rear screen option in Model X, free service) to ridiculous (California cutting a battery deal that included an inside lane on a hyperloop type project). I'm an architect, so out of my league on what Tesla does, and am hoping the thread will catalyze some of those with engineering and technology backgrounds to venture deeper guesses. I certainly welcome any you might have, and any others might as well.

Raffy.Roma · Aug 9, 2014

Cattledog said:
Probably the most intriguing part of the recent earnings call was Elon's reference to 'there are things you don't know about' and 'we're not showing you all our cards'. So given that the cards are likely either 1. long-term things being accelerated, or 2. new things, here are some speculations:

1. Tesla Factory in China more imminent than we expect. Lots of govt. incentives.
2. Tesla Gigafactory in China more imminent due to #1. Ditto.
3. Model 3 coming out more quickly (reveal 2015, PR late deliveries in 2016, massive deliveries in 2017).
4. Compact SUV '3X' coming out at the same time as Model 3.
5. In order to satisfy US appetite, Tesla Pick-up truck coming in next 3-4 years.
6. Auto-Pilot comes out with X, immediately available for S.
7. AWD with S concurrent with X.
8. Bigger battery for S (at least 100kWh) and X.
9. Rear view cameras available with X & S, integrated with autopilot (yes, they provide a picture you can see, but they also make the car smart for lane changes, etc.)
10. Rear touch screen in Model X, for infotainment, backseat arguments, etc.
11. Swivel seats in 2nd row of X.
12. New Roadster on Model 3 platform.
13. Deal with someone who has land and $$ to provide 1000s of superchargers across the country/world.
14. Fixed storage contracts with utilities/big institutional clients in the range of 100s of mWhs or even gWhs.
15. Free service for 8 years, 125k miles for all cars, retroactive to every Tesla.
16. Megadeal with BMW. (Gigadeal?)
17. New Service Centers and Stores to cover South America and Africa.
18. Secret deal with California to locate Gigafactory in California in exchange for exclusive rights for Tesla to develop the Hyperloop between LA and SF (hyper cool!).
19. TSLA shareholders allowed insider access to buy SPCX shares.
20. Optional 'Spouse/Partner Swap' at all battery swap stations.

OK, off to see if anyone showed up for the San Antonio drive event today - please add!

21. Driving Assistant Package optional for all Tesla cars (X, S, GenIII and so on).
22. Ventilated/cooled seats also as an option.

GSP · Aug 9, 2014

Doug_G said:
They're doing a lot of stuff in grid storage that you don't hear much about. That's one possible area for big developments.

This is likely one of the big "cards." Similar to item #14, expect Tesla to build their own merchant generation plants. Instead of natural gas fueled gas turbines, they will have banks of batteries, like the ones already installed at Tesla's Fremont factory. Tesla will buy and sell wholesale electric power from these plants.

Exciting times.

GSP

Jack6591 · Aug 9, 2014

Mercedes Mega-Deal, to compete with BMW.

aronth5 · Aug 9, 2014

Doug_G said:
They're doing a lot of stuff in grid storage that you don't hear much about. That's one possible area for big developments.

Dead on. We already know from JB they are using grid storage at the factory. This is an area that could produce significant revenue for Tesla and doesn't get the attention it deserves. You can be sure the Gigafactory will take grid storage to a much higher level.

JB has confirmed that since last year, a 2 megawatt-hour battery pack is being used to manage loads at the Fremont Tesla factory. "It's still a small pack," said Straubel. "The scale we need to operate on is so much bigger than that." The installation will be expanded in the near future to 4 megawatt-hours.

ecarfan · Aug 9, 2014

@cattledog wrote: "4. Compact SUV '3X' coming out at the same time as Model 3."

I think that is quite possible. By next year Tesla will have extensive experience in producing the S and X on the same assembly line. They share a common platform. The X may well outsell the S at least in North America. It would make a lot of sense to develop the Model 3 sedan and SUV simultaneously and start producing them simultaneously because the demand will be huge.

As to grid storage products, I have long believed that Tesla is an energy storage management company that happens to sell cars. The grid storage market is potentially bigger than the car market. But until the gigafactory comes fully online Tesla will not have enough battery supplies to launch a mass market grid storage product for either commercial or residential use. Unfortunately, as I really want a back up battery system paired with a home PV system on my roof. I know SolarCity has done a very limited install of such systems in California but they stopped offering it last year. I'm sure it will resurface but not any time soon...

clmason · Aug 9, 2014

More Tesla Skunkworks projects:
Tesla Mars Rover

Custom driver seats option, molded to the owner (a la dragon 2.0 seats)
Tesla Nanofactory exhibition at the new Nikola Tesla Museum

And on the serious side, I think we may find out significantly more progress has been made on:

Development of the new battery format and pack for Gen III
Designing of the Gigafactory (the machine that builds the machine)
Model III's sooner than later

and a lot more cool features on Model X than people realize.

wcalvin · Aug 9, 2014

I seem to recall that Elon was speaking in the context of spending capital on projects in addition to MS, MX, M3, and gigafactory.

A logical project would be recycling battery packs for grid storage. Within a few years, there will be lots of 60 and 85kWh batteries that are no longer in style for vehicles because of weight. Stationary uses would make sense.

Model 3 · Aug 10, 2014

Cattledog said:
I did, and listened to the call live, and listened again a couple nights later. I prefaced my post by saying that I though not showing all the cards might be them accelerating some things we do know about so that we'd see them faster. I threw a few things that I have not heard or read anywhere, that range from plausible (rear screen option in Model X, free service) to ridiculous (California cutting a battery deal that included an inside lane on a hyperloop type project). I'm an architect, so out of my league on what Tesla does, and am hoping the thread will catalyze some of those with engineering and technology backgrounds to venture deeper guesses. I certainly welcome any you might have, and any others might as well.

Nice list

But he talked about this to not show all the cards in conjunction with R & D expenditure was unexpectedly high. As for the "little things" they have never played with very open briefly before, besides, this is about something that requires high R & D expenses. So you can remove all the "low hanging fruit" and everything we already know. No "rear screen option in Model X" etc

Here is an revisted list with what is most likely:

Cattledog said:
1. Tesla Factory in China more imminent than we expect. Lots of govt. incentives.
2. Tesla Gigafactory in China more imminent due to #1. Ditto.
We know they will build a factory in China, and a Gigafactroy to supply it with batteries is logical. But I don't think they can do that in a shorter time then the time line given.

3. Model 3 coming out more quickly (reveal 2015, PR late deliveries in 2016, massive deliveries in 2017).
4. Compact SUV '3X' coming out at the same time as Model 3.
12. New Roadster on Model 3 platform.
One (or more) off this is my best guess, and what I hope! '3X' is Model Y i guess?

8. Bigger battery for S (at least 100kWh) and X.
Sooner or later it will be a bigger battery for this cars. Earlier Elon talked about "at the time of GIII", but at that time GIII was expected in 2015...

14. Fixed storage contracts with utilities/big institutional clients in the range of 100s of mWhs or even gWhs.
Probably not until the GF is online...

16. Megadeal with BMW. (Gigadeal?)
Or with Daimler, Toyota, Nissan or someone else....

Maybe he thinks that we don't know that they are building a factory to build the production equipment for the GF/Fremont factories?
Maybe he has found out that production equipments are to expensive so they are building a sub-brand "Tesla Robotic"?
Or maybe they started the sub-brand "Tesla aerospace" and/or "Tesla marine"

EldestOyster · Aug 10, 2014

I had floated the idea of inductive charging in one of the other threads. Sure, there are reasons that this wouldn't be interesting or worth pursuing. Except that this is the mark of Tesla--they get some R&D money and some really brilliant people, and out comes a compelling use of something no one previously gave a second thought. Anyway, I had to say it just in case...if they do it, I want credit

dalalsid · Aug 11, 2014

Cattledog said:
4. Compact SUV '3X' coming out at the same time as Model 3.

This would excite me the most. Then I can go 3X + Leaf instead of Gen III + keep gas SUV. But I highly doubt this is happening as orders would go through the roof and we would be in for multi-year wait times instead of multi-months. Unless there is the chance of multiple gigafactories coming at one a year starting 2017, much faster than expected.

Cattledog · Aug 11, 2014

Another real longshot would be the development of an electric bike (not motorcycle). Steve Jurvetson showed a great slide at TMC Connect that indicated there are something like 200M electric bikes in China after the SARS outbreak 12+ years ago. Good way to introduce the brand to aspiring owners.

TSLAROX · Aug 11, 2014

Former Tesla engineer confirms they are currently working on AWD Supercar and truck. These aren't things we didn't know, but they are cards that Tesla hasn't shown yet. Other cards include expansion to Russia and India. I'm assuming this means some kind of factory will be coming to China sooner rather than later to serve these markets.

I mentioned in a previous post that I know of at least one engineer who left Tesla because he would've been required to move to China, so I think there's much more going on there than we know about, which also explains some the favor that the Chinese government has shown to Tesla thus far.

Cosmacelf · Aug 11, 2014

Link?

What are Tesla's other 'Cards'?

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