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Morgan Stanley is pumped over the Model X

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AnOutsider

S532 # XS27
Moderator
Apr 3, 2009
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http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Teslas+%28TSLA%29+Model+X+Will+Make+Model+S+Look+Like+Chopped+Liver,+Morgan+Stanley+Says/9726688.html

Some choice quotes:

the Model X has the potential to be far more successful and a much better value than the Model S. The Model X, according to Jonas, will put to rest comments that Tesla is a 'one hit wonder' with the Model S.

"We’d be disappointed if the Model X did not sweep every major Car of the Year award on offer by the automotive media,"


While Tesla is trying very hard to contain its excitement ahead of the Model X launch, it is increasingly difficult to do ... Additionally, many key suppliers who refused to work with Tesla at the time of the Model S will participate in commercializing the Model X. It is in Tesla’s interest to under-sell expectations of the Model X’s capabilities while it is still in the early stages of the global roll-out of the Model S

We expect the Model X to have a starting MSRP between 5 and 10% higher than the Model S, but will include far greater levels of equipment and features as standard, offering a ‘content-adjusted’ price that is noticeably more favorable to the customer

Hoping the sig value is there this time, though I'm sure it'll be around 125-130k out the door.

Any idea what this car learning is?

augmented by first-to-market safety features in the area of autonomous driving and 'car learning'.
 
Any idea what this car learning is?
Given the recent hires and emphasis on autonomous driving that Tesla has been working on, my guess is that they're going to put lots of secret hardware in the X to support future software for self-driving. They probably aren't there yet to announce that much immediately, but how they handled supercharging (putting the hardware in every Model S before the feature was announced), I hope they'll do the same with autonomous driving.
 
I think they are right.

If the Model X achieves a 0-60 time faster than 4.3 seconds (Porsche Cayenne Turbo S) then it will be the quickest SUV. If it will have more than 30 cubic feet of cargo space (all seats in place) then it will be one of the largest cargo carrier SUV (Subarban and the like don't count). Supposedly, the AWD and the low center of gravity will allow it to have a turning radius as tight as the Mini Cooper (per Elon Musk in the Model X introduction video), this also means the Model X will handle like a dream. Also the Model X will probably be a huge status symbol (especially in Asia) thanks to the Falcon wing doors.

Edit: Forgot to add that it will be the safest car on the road!
 
Given the recent hires and emphasis on autonomous driving that Tesla has been working on, my guess is that they're going to put lots of secret hardware in the X to support future software for self-driving. They probably aren't there yet to announce that much immediately, but how they handled supercharging (putting the hardware in every Model S before the feature was announced), I hope they'll do the same with autonomous driving.

Frankly, I hope they put zero effort into self-driving autonomous systems at the moment.
 
Here's why I'm pumped:
CURRENT U.S. MONTHLY CROSSOVER SALES
Vehicle
Monthly Sales Rate
Porsche Panamera400-500
Porsche Cayenne1200-1800
BMW 7-Series600-700
BMW X52800-4400
AUDI A8350-480
AUDI Q71200-1600
Notice that in each case the Crossover outsells its Sedan counterpart by at least a 3:1 ratio? I believe much the same will happen between Model S and Model X. No, the Model X will not 'steal' sales from the Model S... It will just have a larger market of eager Customers.
 
The are more than one reason why Q7 outsells the A8, but I can imagine that fact that the price tag of the A8 starts at 77.000 USD and the Q7 starts at 47.000 USD. So if the X will be 20-30.000 USD cheaper than the S, I can imagine it, will outsell the S with the same margin. But I can not imagine such a big difference in price for an S vs the X.
 
Frankly I hope they put all resources to make sure that damn fancy falcon doors work flawlessly.

If not they have shot themselves in the foot.

I really worry about that too. It feels eerily like a rerun of DeLorean.

Years ago, I remember Ed Zander, then COO of Sun Microsystems, telling employees at an all-hands meeting that his goal was to be the first computer company not to go bankrupt doing gallium arsenide. (In the mid-1990s, everything was silicon, but it had limitations that GaAs would solve -- if only it weren't so problematic. Company after company tried and failed to make a general-purpose CPU out of GaAs.) Fifteen years later, Sun Microsystems sold itself to Oracle for pennies on the dollar.

Some technologies just seem to kill everyone who attempts to use them. Of course, you could say the exact same thing about electric cars in general. Tesla is 1-0 by that count.

But falcon wing doors just seem really problematic. I hope they have all kinds of sensors to make sure they don't open themselves into things. It's hard enough with normal doors.
 
I really worry about that too. It feels eerily like a rerun of DeLorean.

Years ago, I remember Ed Zander, then COO of Sun Microsystems, telling employees at an all-hands meeting that his goal was to be the first computer company not to go bankrupt doing gallium arsenide. (In the mid-1990s, everything was silicon, but it had limitations that GaAs would solve -- if only it weren't so problematic. Company after company tried and failed to make a general-purpose CPU out of GaAs.) Fifteen years later, Sun Microsystems sold itself to Oracle for pennies on the dollar.

Some technologies just seem to kill everyone who attempts to use them. Of course, you could say the exact same thing about electric cars in general. Tesla is 1-0 by that count.

But falcon wing doors just seem really problematic. I hope they have all kinds of sensors to make sure they don't open themselves into things. It's hard enough with normal doors.

I agree the falcon doors are an unnecessary risk.

I own a Model S and I really think the moving door handles have plenty of issues. It is a bad idea to second guess when the owner want to open the door and particular you need to touch the front door handle to get the rear door handle to appear. Pure gimmick with plenty of downside. I doubt is anyone bought the car for this feature.

The Falcon doors have several issues:

1) No roof rack on an SUV when there is one on the sedan.

2) Snow and ice will fall into the car when you open the door. Assuming the door is strong enough to break the ice.

3) Lots of sensors will be needed to prevent accidents closing the doors. They will probably have occasional false positives since the risk of injury is high.

4) Not clear how a manual override will work in the case of failure or accident.
 
I really worry about that too. It feels eerily like a rerun of DeLorean.

Years ago, I remember Ed Zander, then COO of Sun Microsystems, telling employees at an all-hands meeting that his goal was to be the first computer company not to go bankrupt doing gallium arsenide. (In the mid-1990s, everything was silicon, but it had limitations that GaAs would solve -- if only it weren't so problematic. Company after company tried and failed to make a general-purpose CPU out of GaAs.) Fifteen years later, Sun Microsystems sold itself to Oracle for pennies on the dollar.

Some technologies just seem to kill everyone who attempts to use them. Of course, you could say the exact same thing about electric cars in general. Tesla is 1-0 by that count.

But falcon wing doors just seem really problematic. I hope they have all kinds of sensors to make sure they don't open themselves into things. It's hard enough with normal doors.

Mercedes has used them successfully twice and they are still in business.

The safety issues are not hard to solve. The SLS used explosive latches for rollover. Not sure you'd even need that if the window is big enough.

As for sensors, I don't see why they'd be any different in implementation than the rear hatch on the Model S.

I had the same kind of worries about snow and rain, but again the hatch on the Model S shows how you do it. Big drain channels are about all you need.
 
Mercedes has used them successfully twice and they are still in business.

The safety issues are not hard to solve. The SLS used explosive latches for rollover. Not sure you'd even need that if the window is big enough.

As for sensors, I don't see why they'd be any different in implementation than the rear hatch on the Model S.

I had the same kind of worries about snow and rain, but again the hatch on the Model S shows how you do it. Big drain channels are about all you need.

Any snow on the rear hatch will move forward onto the flat part of the roof.

The flacon wings expose two edges of the flat roof full of snow. The snow will pour in from the front and rear flat part of the roof onto the rear passenger seats.
 
The flacon wings expose two edges of the flat roof full of snow. The snow will pour in from the front and rear flat part of the roof onto the rear passenger seats.
What about you DON'T open the doors until you've cleared off the snow?

It is beyond me how anyone can live with sunroof or cabriolet. All that rain comming into cabin? They must all get wet and cold.
I don't get how people manage to close the hood/bonnet before they drive. What if I tried to drive off without closing it? I'd run into things.
I can't imagine anyone turning that big circular thing in the middle of the cabin to tell the car where to go. What if I turned it wrong, the car would not go in the right direction.

One is considered to be grown-up person when he can predict the consequences of his actions. When consequences don't look good, you don't take the action.
Bee-jezus!