If we take ALL the electric cars manufactured in the past twenty years, including the 37,000 GEM's and EVERYTHING ELSE, we don't have 75,000 cars on the planet. And I don't count 99% of those as even being an electric car capable of being a solution to anything.
If we count only LiFePo4 cars, the numbers get to be pretty miniscule. IF Leaf sells 12,000 cars in 2011, AND GM sells that many Volts, which it won't and which isn't even an electric car, and we count the 2400 Tesla's, all the iMiev's every prototype built by all manufacturers, we are at less than 30,000 cars.
EVALBUM lists 378 vehicles currently as Lithium Ion driven vehicles. Two thirds of those are actually bicycles and lawn mowers. But if we say half, we have 185 Lithium ion powered cars. If we assume that EVALBUM is one out of 10 in existance, that is still less than 2000 home built Lithium cars.
32,000 cars TOPS.
Now let's look at Rodgers curve. He indicates that the first 2.5% of the market is the tinkerers and innovators. Let's assume the United States is the only market that matters, a dubious concept as gasoline is $8 a gallon over all of Eaurope. We have $255 million active automobiles currently registered.
To be 2.5% of that would require 6.3 million Lithium Ion powered vehicles
. That's the point at which tinkerer innovator development is mature enough to appeal to EARLY ADOPTERS. Do we HAVE 6.3 million such vehicles? Are we close?
This is a world changing, game changing, totally disruptive techology - the Lithium ion electric car. It is TRULY different from previous electric cars in that it actually can be used as practical personal mobility - transportation. Not that it can be used heroically. It can be used easily. I do it every day.
But we aren't at the real START of the innovator level. And we won't be for another 6.27 million vehicles....