Marketing the Electric Car / Crossing the Chasm

[doug]

A fairly comprehensive article on the marketing of electric cars:
Selling the Electric Car - AdWeek

...with rollouts just around the corner, automakers concede that they and their agencies face a substantial hurdle: changing the consumer perception that electric cars are more trouble than they're worth. Issues include "range" anxiety -- the fear batteries will run out before drivers reach home due to a virtually nonexistent charging infrastructure -- to higher price points and the need to learn about the various options in the new category.

"The threat to any new technology is that 'c' word: 'compromise,'" says Mark Turner, chief strategy officer of Saatchi & Saatchi in Torrance, Calif., which handles advertising for Toyota, which plans to roll out a plug-in Prius next year. "The U.S. consumer is especially loathe to compromise," he adds. "It's not in our DNA. ... If I look at the electric vehicles offered in the near future, my gut tells me many consumers may [indeed] view them as a compromise. It's a functionality and price issue. At the moment, it's easy to own a car with a conventional gas engine."

...

[Mark Perry, director of product planning at Nissan North America] predicts, however, that the early adopters, at least, will come fairly easily. "They're waiting for this and are saying, 'What took you so long?'" he says. (He estimates that Nissan has 20,000 initial orders for the car.)

Reading this article reminded me of this graph:

[edo]

Reading this article reminded me of this graph:

And looking at that graph makes me think that the "Chasm" seems to be approaching fast with the Tesla backlog waning. I hope they survive the jump!

[vfx]

Great find Doug.


The article is riddled with little mistakes but how about this:

(Mazda reportedly has plans to debut an electric vehicle in 2010.)

Found nothing on the PIA Tracker but there is this:
Mazda Building a Volt of Its Own | Autopia | Wired.com

[Alfred]

Thanks a lot Doug! I ordered the original reference and will read it. On the possible impact of electric vehicles as disruptive technology a very well made study has just been published by Deutsche Bank (in English). The study should be read in full and not just commentaries based on snippets from the executive summary, copied from other journalists. It is titled: "The Peak Oil Markets". Their scenario is a very favourable backdrop for marketing electric vehicles. With a bit of luck Tesla has fair chances of bridging "the gap".

[vfx]

Jack Rickard crunches the numbers on the acceptance chasm (bold is mine):

...
If we take ALL the electric cars manufactured in the past twenty years, including the 37,000 GEM's and EVERYTHING ELSE, we don't have 75,000 cars on the planet. And I don't count 99% of those as even being an electric car capable of being a solution to anything.

If we count only LiFePo4 cars, the numbers get to be pretty miniscule. IF Leaf sells 12,000 cars in 2011, AND GM sells that many Volts, which it won't and which isn't even an electric car, and we count the 2400 Tesla's, all the iMiev's every prototype built by all manufacturers, we are at less than 30,000 cars.

EVALBUM lists 378 vehicles currently as Lithium Ion driven vehicles. Two thirds of those are actually bicycles and lawn mowers. But if we say half, we have 185 Lithium ion powered cars. If we assume that EVALBUM is one out of 10 in existance, that is still less than 2000 home built Lithium cars.

32,000 cars TOPS.

Now let's look at Rodgers curve. He indicates that the first 2.5% of the market is the tinkerers and innovators. Let's assume the United States is the only market that matters, a dubious concept as gasoline is $8 a gallon over all of Eaurope. We have $255 million active automobiles currently registered.

To be 2.5% of that would require 6.3 million Lithium Ion powered vehicles. That's the point at which tinkerer innovator development is mature enough to appeal to EARLY ADOPTERS. Do we HAVE 6.3 million such vehicles? Are we close?

This is a world changing, game changing, totally disruptive techology - the Lithium ion electric car. It is TRULY different from previous electric cars in that it actually can be used as practical personal mobility - transportation. Not that it can be used heroically. It can be used easily. I do it every day.

But we aren't at the real START of the innovator level. And we won't be for another 6.27 million vehicles....

He does not opine when 6.3M will happen as many have but you really have to have faith to build a new EV and EV related business around that future number. Though a 5M customer base is not a bad niche for some.

[Norbert]

He does not opine when 6.3M will happen as many have but you really have to have faith to build a new EV and EV related business around that future number. Though a 5M customer base is not a bad niche for some.

I'm sure Nissan is operating with numbers like that, and so is Tesla in its preparations for its third generation car.

[vfx]

Mod note: moved from Fisker Karma & A123 fail

:

I believe EVS are in the chasm now.

[W.Petefish]

I believe EVS are in the chasm now.

... and are quickly moving along to the Early Majority.

[vfx]

... and are quickly moving along to the Early Majority.

Areas that still have not been offered EVs are still buying but sales are stagnating where EVs are plentiful. Tesla's S will certainly bring a lot of interest but the chasm is wide.

[Tommy]

I believe EVS are in the chasm now.

Based on the percentage the adoption curve is using, are we not still in the 2.5% Innovators portion? With the issues surrounding the Fisker, A123 and Volt, I can understand the perception that the curve has entered the "Chasm" i.e. "the make or break" of a product. I am pretty sure 16% of the public has not adopted the EV.