Knowing what we know about Giga-factories, Model X delays, 3 year quoted timelines - When do you think the first Gen 3 deliveries will actually start? Seems that we have been talking 3 years timeline for over a year now and would I not be surprised if we will still be 3 years away by next year. Would like to hear everyones thoughts/predictions. Thanks in advance.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
green1
Active Member
I believe that Elon knows that the success of Tesla and of EVs in general rides on the Gen III model being a success and the sooner the better. My bet is on sometime in 2017 because the gigafactory being up and running is required for volume productin of the Gen III.
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
They are 100% focused on Model X. From start to delivery that took 5 years (assuming they deliver first half of next year which I am increasingly doubtful).
So 2019 at the earliest for Gen 3
So 2019 at the earliest for Gen 3
2017 seems optimistic unless the G3 development team has been making progress during the last phase of X developments......doesn't seem likely.
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
Elon was recently quoted as saying Gen3 will debut in "about 2 1/2 years".
Stuff meets Elon Musk | Stuff
This confirms the late 2016-early 2017 timeframe he's been talking about since mid-last year.
Production will probably start out small and ramp into volume production in 2018, IMO.
Stuff meets Elon Musk | Stuff
This confirms the late 2016-early 2017 timeframe he's been talking about since mid-last year.
Production will probably start out small and ramp into volume production in 2018, IMO.
green1
Active Member
And you honestly think the gigafactory, with no site selected to date, will be up and running before 2017? That's HIGHLY unlikely.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Yeah that's a pretty significant change in the projections. It's the first time I've seen him quoted on anything sooner than 3 years. This must mean good things for 2015 reveal, gigafactory time lines and a whole bunch of other things. Good news!
We can agree to disagree. As I said, Elon has stated many times that the reason for starting construction on the gigafactory this year is so that Gen III mass production can start in or around 2017. Obviously he believes that the gigafactory can be up and running in less than three years. I figure he knows a heck of a lot more about it than I do, so I'll go with his estimates.
Panasonic has built battery factories before. They know how to do it. It's not rocket science.
igotzzoom
Active Member
I think a late-stage prototype or "concept" will be shown at the 2015 L.A. Show or the 2016 Detroit Show. Production model shown at 2017 Detroit Show, limited sales/deliveries starting in spring 2017, large-scale production rollout fall 2017, early calendar 2018. Fine by me. Will give me 4 years of payment-free car ownership until I take the plunge into the EV world.
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
" confirms "?
Elon also " confirmed " firmware 6.0 for January 2014 and the CHAdeMO adapter for winter 2013.
I'll be happy to bet that we will not see delivery if the Gen 3 in 2017.
Anyone?
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
As for longshot bets...
I would be interesting to see Elon take a risk with design resources by sharding off a small advance team to start speccing out Next-Gen Roadster with the intent of Signature Next-Gen Roadsters (<= 200) delivering in tandem with, say, 2000ish VIN Gen3.
I don't think it will happen but boy would that be exciting. If it did happen though, I would expect the build quality and, um, "refinement level" to be similar to Model S founders vehicles (and first dozen or so Sigs).
I would be interesting to see Elon take a risk with design resources by sharding off a small advance team to start speccing out Next-Gen Roadster with the intent of Signature Next-Gen Roadsters (<= 200) delivering in tandem with, say, 2000ish VIN Gen3.
I don't think it will happen but boy would that be exciting. If it did happen though, I would expect the build quality and, um, "refinement level" to be similar to Model S founders vehicles (and first dozen or so Sigs).
igotzzoom
Active Member
The biggest factor with Gen-III will be ramp up to production of 100,000+ units. I think the learning curve with the Model S and Model X will shorten the gestation time for Gen-III. A lot of the learnings with those models will manifest themselves in fast-tracked development on the Gen-III. Still standing by my forecast of spring 2017 for the first unit sales.
Similar threads
