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Full Superchargers? How Often?

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I just completed a cross country trip and never had contention for a space. Between California and Illinois I saw only two other Teslas charging. Avoid Barstow on weekends at all costs. Newark, DE was the most crowded, but no wait. Locally, Folsom has been congested in the past, but with the addition of Roseville and Vacaville, it is not a problem. Total unique chargers visited = 48.
 
Only SC I've ever had to wait at was Gilroy before they expanded it. I've seen Barstow fill up a couple times... I've never had to wait but I've heard some horror stories of 2+ hour waits. I don't know how to do the math but I think the odds of having to wait decreases exponentially with the # of bays... so having 6 Bays vs 4 is far more beneficial than it would appear from simply adding 2 more spots. ALL SCs now have 4 bays... many have 6 or 8. Centrailia and Fremont are the only ones I know of with 10.
 
it is my understanding that Barstow is in for a major expansion soon.. Maybe Cottonwood has heard something. It seems like most complaints are about that location.

Barstow has a triple handicap:
  1. It's an old 90 kW Supercharger.
  2. There are only 4 stalls.
  3. It's on the way to Las Vegas where because of distance and desert conditions in between, most people want a near 100% charge. Supercharging to 100% takes a very long time!
There are credible rumors about that things are about to happen to improve Barstow in a significant way. When is Primm happening? Making the distance to the next Supercharger shorter would help the Barstow problem as well. Primm would cut the next Supercharger distance from 161 to 118 miles. That is a very big reduction in Supercharger charge time when you want to driver 80+ and have a few rated miles left at the next Supercharger.


Then there is Hawthorne...
  1. Same 90 kW issue.
  2. There are many local MS owners who think it's a good use of their time to save $10 an hour on electricity.
  3. Going from 6 to 8 stalls seems to have helped.
  4. Adding the San Juan Capristrano seems to have helped the 100% charge problem heading south.
  5. Oxnard and Indio will help 100% charge problems in other directions soon.
  6. The "coming soon" map shows another LA Supercharger that should help offload Hawthorne.

Analyzing usage, loads, and predicting when to add capacity is pretty basic queuing theory. I am sure that Tesla is on top of it, but is struggling to get ahead of the power curve. I am sure that will happen soon; it just depends on your definition of "soon." :confused:
 
I've used most SC on the east coast from FL to MA and also those on the northerly route heading to STL; other than during the "Tesla Road Trip" heading to DC a few months back, I have never seen more than two or three other cars at any SC, most of which had 8 bays. Only place I've had to wait was at the Bethesda MD charger, which is only two spots in a mall parking lot, definitely not ideal and not surprised I had to queue there.
 
Then there is Hawthorne...
  1. Same 90 kW issue.
  2. There are many local MS owners who think it's a good use of their time to save $10 an hour on electricity.
  3. Going from 6 to 8 stalls seems to have helped.
  4. Adding the San Juan Capristrano seems to have helped the 100% charge problem heading south.
  5. Oxnard and Indio will help 100% charge problems in other directions soon.
  6. The "coming soon" map shows another LA Supercharger that should help offload Hawthorne.

Hawthorne is all 120 kW now. I tried the different stalls and all were 120 kW. The other points are all true and will help a lot. Except for the one night where all but 3 stalls were broken and two people thought they need to charge 100% I have never experienced any wait times there. Neither at any other Supercharger I visited so far. Next month I'll go on a trip using 26 Superchargers. I'll report once I'm back. :)
 
Only SC I've ever had to wait at was Gilroy before they expanded it. I've seen Barstow fill up a couple times... I've never had to wait but I've heard some horror stories of 2+ hour waits. I don't know how to do the math but I think the odds of having to wait decreases exponentially with the # of bays... so having 6 Bays vs 4 is far more beneficial than it would appear from simply adding 2 more spots. ALL SCs now have 4 bays... many have 6 or 8. Centrailia and Fremont are the only ones I know of with 10.
Gilroy has been expanded to 10 bays.
 
When I picked up my Model S at the factory yesterday all but one stall was occupied around 4pm on a Thursday. Given that this is the factory it's probably always going to have anomalous usage due to new delivery customers trying to check out what it's like. I'll admit to having backed into the last stall with 241 miles of rated charge remaining... :redface:
 
Hawthorne is my favorite bugaboo given that I had to wait 30 minutes or more during two of my three visits there. Had to wait at Folsom on one occasion out of two. Barely escaped congestion at Gilroy and Vacaville on a couple of occasions.

Bottomline, during peak travel periods, congestion at the spots close to major metro areas is virtually guaranteed with contention from fellow roadtrippers as well as locals. New stalls and nearby sites will help for sure given more S and then X on the road.