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Why does it need to be an auto maker? It possibly could be just a manufacturer partner (ie, Foxconn).
Foxconn is not Chinese. They are a Taiwanese company.
Though with the WTO ruling, would that even be necessary? If they are going to partner with someone though and it not being a car manufacturer, it would probably be a partner that handles the infrastructure and power generation. Hanergy Holdings Group maybe?
Foxconn is listed at HK Stock Exchange #2038; their factories are located at many province at China.
Foxconn is already making some Model S components for Tesla.
I think likely Tesla will partner with Geely; who has bought Volvo together with Ford some years ago. they are interested to cooperate with western company, and their mission is "make safest car, make green car." very consistent with Tesla.
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Not matter it's import tax or other fee; China or any countries always have their way to make it much higher cost to purchase foreign cars.
E.g. Hong Kong hasn't import tax, but has first registration fee, which make car prices about double compare to USA.
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another possibility maybe BYD, HK Stock #1211.
BYD is existing EV maker in China, they consider Tesla as their major competitor.
But as Elon may release patents to competitors to create constructive competition, it may turn our BYD and Tesla will become partners.
Foxconn is already making some Model S components for Tesla.
I think likely Tesla will partner with Geely; who has bought Volvo together with Ford some years ago. they are interested to cooperate with western company, and their mission is "make safest car, make green car." very consistent with Tesla.
- - - Updated - - -
Not matter it's import tax or other fee; China or any countries always have their way to make it much higher cost to purchase foreign cars.
E.g. Hong Kong hasn't import tax, but has first registration fee, which make car prices about double compare to USA.
- - - Updated - - -
another possibility maybe BYD, HK Stock #1211.
BYD is existing EV maker in China, they consider Tesla as their major competitor.
But as Elon may release patents to competitors to create constructive competition, it may turn our BYD and Tesla will become partners.
From what I understand, China has plate fees. But they made 3000 car exemption for imported EVs, local EVs are totally exempted kind of. Though would the fee alone justify it? At end of the day, if Tesla was to make a partnership. It would have to be a company that fills in the gaps that Tesla lacks, not one that complements them. As Tesla is in favor of vertical integration. Which means Tesla needs an energy partner in China. To make sure that Tesla cars are charged using clean energy and that infrastructure is maintained in China.
BYD would probably be the last pick. I don't think Panasonic wants to have Tesla seeks competitors. Because BYD is more of a Panasonic competitor then Tesla competitor.
It's my understanding to avoid the import tariff they need to partner (joint venture) with a Chinese company, not necessarily an auto maker. This means Tesla could partner with any Chinese manufacturer, not just an auto maker, since Tesla would be providing most everything anyway.
My read is that the 2 - 21.5% import duties that China imposed several years ago on some US automakers were recently struck down by the WTO. After the US bailed out GM and Chrysler, China said this was a subsidy that constituted dumping, hence the additional import duties. WTO disagreed. I don't think this import duty would have applied to Tesla even if it had not been struck down. Anyway, China stopped imposing these additional import duties last December.
My understanding is that China also imposes a 25% duty on all imported cars not manufactured by a JV in China, and this import duty was not part of the WTO dispute. This duty does apply to Tesla. I might be misunderstanding.
Now Tesla don't need to make partnership with other auto makers. I think Tesla will partner with other auto makers after 2020(success of Gen 3, half million per year). When Tesla build 2nd, 3rd giga factories, they will give away patents(supercharging & power train technologies) to other auto makers under the terms of exclusive contracts like sole distributorship of battery pack.
This means Tesla will partner with automobile part suppliers like Foxconn, not other auto makers.
