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Short answer: Yes
Considering how small Hong Kong is, and the limited roads, then yes, there is a flood coming. Of course, Tesla Motors keep their stats to themselves, but rumours have it that there are over 400 orders (more than 400, less than 1000) at this stage, months before the first car is even delivered.
As long as the charging infrastructure is up and running by the time the cars hit the streets, I predict a controlled chain reaction. By 2015, there will be over 1000 cars on the street in HK already - that is what my crystal ball is telling me. A full spec model S P85+ with all the extras would have been 2.3 times more expensive if it had been a petrol car ("gas" to you). Add to that saved fuel cost, as well as yearly road taxes which are about a tenth of a good sized ICE car, there are all the reasons in the world this car is really going to take off.
And when otherwise fast cars get humiliated by a car that doesn't burn anything? Consider there is no advertisement here, apart from the teslamotors.com website, and what the papers happen to write about.
That was the long answer.
Have a few fires, road accidents and lack of chargers, and the flood will be more like a stream - so we just have to make sure that doesn't happen.
I have a car ordered 2 weeks ago and scheduled for delivery in late August here in the US and when I questioned why such a late delivery date, the answer I got was that all of the mid-July to early August production are being diverted to aboard. (Europe, HK and China) Hence, my curiosity after I found out the >USD$60000 savings for the base model, this will probably make a Model S cheaper than a BMW 3-series or MB C-class in HK, correct? The government should work harder at encouraging EV adoption in HK given the air quality.
If we had 7 seats, and if 13A charging was offered, then I would agree 1,000 cars by year end. Now, I am not so sure. The charging hurdle is huge. Businesses are not buying, so how big is the market here for large premium/luxury sedans as private cars? More than 500, but less than 1,000 is my (wild) guess.
What is so difficult about charging? Hire an electrician and get a wall box installed? That isn't too difficult, or expensive. Is it the problem that if you rent an apartment, you don't have a dedicated parking spot? Are most landlords resisting people paying for installation of a charging wall box?
I don't know the exact cost but I remember seeing cars were roughly double in hk compared to us. When I moved a few years ago that seemed to be the case.
With the tesla being about the same cost here as the US it does make it an attractive buy.
Where in the US the top end tesla model S and the Mercedes S class go head to head at almost 100k USD each in the luxury brand market. I would have to spend double or more for an Mercedes S class in hk same model but not Tesla it's relatively the same.
That's definitely an added incentive. There is a high concentration of nice cars in hk. I thought Miami had a lot but I see more high end luxury cars here.
Yet HK is a small market overall. China is going to be the real giant, but often China gets its luxury fashion tips from Hk so a flood of tesla in Hk can be a positive influence.
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Many people are renting. They have to deal with a landlord and a property management company. Often a beaurocratic organization that has parking spots which are in limited quantity. Think nightmare home owners association but worse because you are just a renter.
On top of that, some people don't have dedicated parking spaces.
I think many renters would gladly pay for the Installation, it's getting permission to install it is the issue.
Parking all over hk is in limited supply.
With the tesla being about the same cost here as the US it does make it an attractive buy.
Where in the US the top end tesla model S and the Mercedes S class go head to head at almost 100k USD each in the luxury brand market. I would have to spend double or more for an Mercedes S class in hk same model but not Tesla it's relatively the same.
That's definitely an added incentive. There is a high concentration of nice cars in hk. I thought Miami had a lot but I see more high end luxury cars here.
Yet HK is a small market overall. China is going to be the real giant, but often China gets its luxury fashion tips from Hk so a flood of tesla in Hk can be a positive influence.
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Many people are renting. They have to deal with a landlord and a property management company. Often a beaurocratic organization that has parking spots which are in limited quantity. Think nightmare home owners association but worse because you are just a renter.
On top of that, some people don't have dedicated parking spaces.
I think many renters would gladly pay for the Installation, it's getting permission to install it is the issue.
Parking all over hk is in limited supply.
That's just sticker price.
Look beyond purchase day, and consider expenses to fuel, maintenance, yearly fees, and over the lifetime of the car, it's like half the price.
Then, after 5 to 10 years and you want to sell your M3 or your Tesla, at some stage even EVs have to pay some sort of FRT, which will help the resale value of the Tesla, but not the M3.
Finally, electricity can be made various ways locally, even from solar and wind, where as the M3 and any other ICE car is in the fossil fuel gridlock for life.
Regarding competitiveness, back here:
Hong Kong Pricing
I did some comparisons with BMW and Mercedes pricing:
Hong Kong Pricing
I did some comparisons with BMW and Mercedes pricing:
- HK$554,000 BMW 320iA M Sport Edition
- HK$559,900 BMW 520iA Executive
- HK$579,000 Tesla 60kWh Model S base
- HK$659,000 Mercedes E 250 Sport FL
- HK$742,000 BMW X5 xDrive30d
- HK$839,000 Tesla P85+ Model S base
- HK$893,000 Mercedes E 400 Elegance F
- HK$1,009,700 Tesla P85+ Model S maxed-out with every option
- HK$1,070,000 Tesla Roadster base
- HK$1,078,000 Mercedes E 500 Elegance FL
- HK$1,228,000 BMW 730LiA Vantage
- HK$1,756,000 BMW M5
Even "just" 500 cars by year end is quite a substantial amount. If the vast majority of these buyers love their Tesla's, they will the best salespersons for the brand. The value for money of this car is unbeatable in HK. However after the wave of first time buyers trickles down, believe sales will slow down quite a bit. Let's just hope the charging infrastructure can keep up with the amount of cars, so all drivers will have a positive owner experience.
Seriously?
No.
A] I can afford a Tesla, but I can't afford a chauffeur. 5 year loan for HK$600,000 is around HK$12,000/month, with a residual value of perhaps HK$300,000. Chauffeur is around HK$15,000 to HK$20,000 a month, with a residual value of negative HK$87,400 (what you owe the Chauffeur in long-service pay over five years).
B] I've seen plenty of 'rich' people here with Ferraris, Lambos, etc, driving out of their way to save a few cents on petrol. Sure, they can afford an electrician, but they don't want to pay for one.
C] It doesn't matter what the landlord says - as the charger is installed in (or cables pass through) common areas, it is the building management companies and owners committees/corporations that are the primary issue.
We may be saving HK$10,000 to HK$20,000 in petrol every year, by driving electric, but now offset that against a HK$50,000+ charger installation.
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I second Mark for all three points. Even if you own a parking spot just next to the building's switch room, you can't install your EVSE without OC/management's permission. If you are not using building's power supply, you need their permission to get power from utility companies.
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