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FWIW here is my take on the future of transportation:
- Once things start to change, passenger cars will transition fairly rapidly to a largely EV fleet, simply due to economics. Gasoline will simply become too expensive. While electricity prices will also rise, there will still be a 4:1 cost advantage due to the efficiency of electric drive
- Battery technology will continue to drop in price. Once it reaches a certain threshold, the current slow rise in EV sales will become a torrent. New car customers will recognize the huge cost advantages to electric drive. Barriers such as charging networks will fall rapidly since rolling out that infrastructure is inexpensive compared to all other options.
- Auto companies that haven't planned for a massive transition will be in trouble, and may disappear altogether. Those who have positioned themselves with product in the EV market will be scrambling to transition their production lines over.
- During the transition dropping demand will ease demand and lower the cost of gasoline. Thus some gasoline vehicles will be around for a while, which is important since we can't replace the whole fleet instantly. Refineries will change their mix of products away from gasoline as demand falls, possibly reducing costs or restraining costs of manufactured products that depend on oil (namely, almost everything).
- Large, long range trucks will convert to more of a mix of technologies. Probably pure EV will not happen for some time simply due to cost and pack size. This is probably the only true opportunity for automotive hydrogen power; however natural gas will probably be a more economically viable option
FWIW here is my take on the future of transportation:
...
- Large, long range trucks will convert to more of a mix of technologies
In many places in the world, companies use these things called trains, and they're often electric!
Agree with everything you say except item 4, drop in demand will not change cost of gasoline at least in the US. We have seen a drop in fuel consumption in this country in the last 5 years of 15% and an increase of oil production by 15%. The normal supply and demand economics does not work in the US because we should have seen a drop in gas prices due to the above, but because we sell most of our oil out of this country due to larger profits our fuel prices have not lowered. So even if we continue to sell more fuel efficient vehicle and produce more oil we then will just sell more out of this country. So as far as I'm concerned, even a better reason to not have to go to a gas station.FWIW here is my take on the future of transportation:
- Once things start to change, passenger cars will transition fairly rapidly to a largely EV fleet, simply due to economics. Gasoline will simply become too expensive. While electricity prices will also rise, there will still be a 4:1 cost advantage due to the efficiency of electric drive
- Battery technology will continue to drop in price. Once it reaches a certain threshold, the current slow rise in EV sales will become a torrent. New car customers will recognize the huge cost advantages to electric drive. Barriers such as charging networks will fall rapidly since rolling out that infrastructure is inexpensive compared to all other options.
- Auto companies that haven't planned for a massive transition will be in trouble, and may disappear altogether. Those who have positioned themselves with product in the EV market will be scrambling to transition their production lines over.
- During the transition dropping demand will ease demand and lower the cost of gasoline. Thus some gasoline vehicles will be around for a while, which is important since we can't replace the whole fleet instantly. Refineries will change their mix of products away from gasoline as demand falls, possibly reducing costs or restraining costs of manufactured products that depend on oil (namely, almost everything).
- Large, long range trucks will convert to more of a mix of technologies. Probably pure EV will not happen for some time simply due to cost and pack size. This is probably the only true opportunity for automotive hydrogen power; however natural gas will probably be a more economically viable option
Agree with everything you say except item 4, drop in demand will not change cost of gasoline at least in the US. We have seen a drop in fuel consumption in this country in the last 5 years of 15% and an increase of oil production by 15%. The normal supply and demand economics does not work in the US because we should have seen a drop in gas prices due to the above, but because we sell most of our oil out of this country due to larger profits our fuel prices have not lowered. So even if we continue to sell more fuel efficient vehicle and produce more oil we then will just sell more out of this country. So as far as I'm concerned, even a better reason to not have to go to a gas station.
Little disappointing their take on the whole thing I don't know why it is so hard for any media outlet to get our take on things there is no range anxiety and this is just the truth plain simple
Also remember that even though the piece featured Teslas, it was on EVs in general. I know some Leaf owners that really feel Range Anxiety, especially in the winter. One fellow I know had to have his Leaf flat-bedded once and another time he had to walk home, get his son and push the car the last few hundred feet to his driveway. Another Leaf friend talks about how he has to crawl along with the heat off and the windows all fogged, up fingers crossed that he'll make it to his destination.
To be fair, I think Range Anxiety does exist, and I've felt it a bit myself even with my 85 kWh pack. On longer trips, I've had to carefully plan my charging stops and always feel some trepidation as I pull up to charging spots over whether it will be occupied (has happened to me), ICE'd (has happened to me) or is simply out of service (has happened to me). It will get better, but today if a corner gas station is closed, there is usually two more right across the street. It's not like that with EVSE yet.
Also remember that even though the piece featured Teslas, it was on EVs in general. I know some Leaf owners that really feel Range Anxiety, especially in the winter. One fellow I know had to have his Leaf flat-bedded once and another time he had to walk home, get his son and push the car the last few hundred feet to his driveway. Another Leaf friend talks about how he has to crawl along with the heat off and the windows all fogged, up fingers crossed that he'll make it to his destination.
Edit:
I noticed that at 6:15 they say Tesla offers 370 km on one charge. That's not true. It's 480.
I max charged and only got Rated Range up to 434km. Are most people getting a higher number? I was expecting 480km as advertised. Is 480km not rated, but ideal? I can't imagine actually getting 480km without significant elevation loss.