Most of these war stories are positives. I'd like to share my negative war story as an example and hopefully someone will take something positive away from it.
I started my TSLA story in fall of 2013 after the run up to 190's. I tip-toed in with a modest 60 shares at around the 175 mark, fires hit along with Q3 2013 dip and we made are way to the 120's.
I converted my shares to 2015 and 2016 LEAPS (strikes were around 180,190 IIRC).
Things picked up from there, and I invested more into LEAPS in December 2013. The week of the NAIAS 2014 I rolled my LEAPS up to higher strikes around 200,220. At this point my cost basis was around $30k.
Things got awesome after that, NAIAS run followed by Q42013 ER, Gigafactory announcement and the big Adam Jonas note at the end of Feb14 launched my holdings to market value of approx $140k. A monster gain in only about 6 months. The day of the AJ note I had an order drafted to sell off all my 2015 leaps and take some off the table, but greed got the better of me and I hit the cancel button.
Things spiraled down from there quickly when we bottomed at 180 after Q2014 ER. Holdings were halved to about $60k. That hurt and my mind was riddled with shoulda coulda wouldas. I felt however that the story was stronger than ever, so I converted my 2016s to an array of 2015s. Sold off some other holdings and bought some more 2015s. Cost basis around $38k at this point.
I held on until Labour day weekend 2014 and sold half on the Friday and the other half on Tuesday after Labour day. This was in the 270-280 range. I was all in cash at this point, approx $125k. The stock peaked at 290 that week.
I sat on the sidelines anxiously and watched the stock drop from 290 to 230's until the eve of Elon's D event tweet. Still on the sidelines, the stock ran up to 260s in anticipation of the D. When I started to hear the hype about model 3 and X being unveiled at the D event, I determined the market would be disappointed and that this could be a huge sell event. So I made a big bet and loaded up on weekly puts on the Thursday of the D event. It paid off large for me. A 7k bet made me about 40k overnight, and I sold out on the Friday at the worst possible time (could've been closer to 80k)
At this point my confidence went through the roof. I thought I was Rainman. My cost basis of $38k was worth around $165k, sitting in cash.
End of October 2014 now. With my new found confidence, cash on the sidelines, and avoiding the 290-220 downturn in the stock, I thought the worst was over, and it would be onwards and upwards in short order.
I decided to go all-in for one last run. I thought we would revisit the highs of 290s by March with Gigafactory progress, X reveal looming, and positive digestion of Dual Motor news. Plan was to exit everything at 280ish, convert half the cash to stock, and buy a house with the other half.
Between the ad event and Q32014ER, I bought some stock, and a ******** of January, March and 2016 LEAPS. All-in. Nervous as hell.
Plan was going perfectly, stock ran up to 259 in short order, and holdings worth over $200k. Another $20 move in the stock and I'm done with the risk.
This is when sh*t hit the fan. hard.
To make an already long story a little shorter. I chased my losses down with every dip. "This must be the bottom". First converting stock to 2016s. Then 2016s to March. I didn't have the presence of mind to cut my losses or be patient, and my confidence and wishful thiking got the better of me.
I got wiped out essentially when everything expired worthless in March. $200k down the drain, working with peanuts now.
It's an embarrassing story and I hope someone can take something away from it.
Tread carefully out there, take profits, and don't let your past successes determine your future outcomes. This stuff is risky and unpredictable.
That being said I still love Tesla and the story. Good luck to all.
