Some questions about purchasing and keeping MS

No I dont see them as sales tactics.. That was the reason that I pulled the trigger.. I expect to drive/own this car for 20-25 years by changing only tires, rotors, bearings, drive trains, batteries etc. along the way. I also expect to step up in batteries along the way to a larger range battery that I hope to come in some years. I am shooting for 500K to 1 Million miles on this car... I have had mine for over a year now... 35K miles .. Love it!

motor should be good for 1000000 miles. bushings, door seals and seats might wear out first. Batteries should make it 200-300k miles still useable.
I hope to keep mine >20 yrs unless I end up with too many Tesla cars someday (wishful thinking) and I need to get rid of the 'slow' one

Residual value has been very good since they are supply constrained. I wouldn't expect it to hold up quite this well once Tesla is able to saturate the market for Model S. Now, how long will that be is anyone's guess. Maybe another year or two?

Dutchie said:

Yesterday I went for a test drive again. Robin, the product specialist, mentioned that the car can easily be kept for 20-25 years! I just wonder what you think of that statement. I know it is rust proof and that there are few moving parts in the car, however, 25 years seems very long.
Are these just sales tactics or is there truth about her remarks? I would love to here from people with experience with Model S's. Thanks!

Click to expand...

That is quite believable in my opinion. The body won't rust. The estimated life of the motor is very long. Their are AC induction motors that have been running almost continuously for decades in industrial applications. Even after 100K miles the battery is highly likely to have 80% of capacity left and of course it is easily replaceable with a new higher capacity unit in the future.

These cRs will have a very long lifespan and good resale value.

It's not too big of a stretch for my imagination. I know many owners of small airplanes that keep their planes in good order for 25 years plus. Why not cars, especially this one?

It all sounds good in theory but technology is changing so fast that in 15 years I doubt many people will want to keep these cars on the road. The temptation of the new cars will just be too great.

Dutchie said:

Yesterday I went for a test drive again. Robin, the product specialist, mentioned that the car can easily be kept for 20-25 years! I just wonder what you think of that statement. I know it is rust proof and that there are few moving parts in the car, however, 25 years seems very long.

She also mentioned that there are quite a few people who want a Model X, but who will get the Model S for now, only to trade it next year when the MX is available. She mentioned also that there was a guy who sold his car after one year of ownership wit a depreciation of only $5,000! The Model X is what I want, however, her remarks started me thinking...

Are these just sales tactics or is there truth about her remarks? I would love to here from people with experience with Model S's. Thanks!

Click to expand...

To be honest it is both. The product specialist is tell you half a story and importantly not completing it. For an example I had the same tic-tac type of talk from when I went to test drive the car. I mentioned about the battery pack depleting over time and how long I should wait to see significant degradation and answered my statement by saying, "well we are putting in a special infrastructure that will allow you to change your battery in 90 seconds or less and that is great for road trips. The way it will work is, you pay for an example.. $65 for a 90 second battery swap from (lets say it is your first time doing it and you had the car for 8 years and it has 75% capacity left) your ORIGINAL battery to another battery in 90 seconds, you get to keep that battery and continue to use it." I said that does not even make sense in any account to business. How can a customer take a $20,000 - $40,000 battery with already 75% degradation and be allowed to have a new battery with lets say 0-10 percent degradation for only "$65", it just does not make sense. I said, you would most likely need to return the battery in X amount of time to pick up your original pack, he said, "No you don't, who states that you have to..?" Stuff like this is why I become skeptical at times of the way product specialists present the car to potential customers.

In your case I know the motor itself in the car can last up to an estimated 40 years, but if you keep the car for 20-25 years your degradation would be exponentially high. Roadsters had about a 1.9% degradation a year from a YouTuber who owns/ed one. The Model S is superior in the way that they fixed mistakes from the previous generation, but only time will tell on the true degradation of a Model S. It is obviously not 0%, but lets assume it is 1% a year then you can essentially only lose 48 - 61 assuming you had Tesla's 244 mile estimated range on a 60 KW battery or 61 - 77 range degradation at Tesla's 306 rated range value. If you use the EPA then it would be 208 rated range 41 - 52 on a 60 KW and 265 rated range 53 - 66. If you are able to live with these degradation levels, then power to you, but don't just listen to what people say, use evidence that is the bottom line.

Also don't forget after 20-25 years batteries for a new pack will be extremely low, if the course we are on continues with the Gigafactory and so on and so forth, so it would probably be easier to buy a battery pack brand new and possibly more durable. The unfortunate part of that is if you are willing to 'keep' the same car for 20-25 years and longer. Technically that one car can last you a life time if you really wanted it to.

Chris Naps said:

I mentioned about the battery pack depleting over time and how long I should wait to see significant degradation and answered my statement by saying, "well we are putting in a special infrastructure that will allow you to change your battery in 90 seconds or less and that is great for road trips. The way it will work is, you pay for an example.. $65 for a 90 second battery swap from (lets say it is your first time doing it and you had the car for 8 years and it has 75% capacity left) your ORIGINAL battery to another battery in 90 seconds, you get to keep that battery and continue to use it." I said that does not even make sense in any account to business. How can a customer take a $20,000 - $40,000 battery with already 75% degradation and be allowed to have a new battery with lets say 0-10 percent degradation for only "$65", it just does not make sense. I said, you would most likely need to return the battery in X amount of time to pick up your original pack, he said, "No you don't, who states that you have to..?"

Click to expand...

Whoever you spoke with gave you incorrect information based on what I have read about the battery swap option! which has yet to be offered.

Battery swapping would be during a round trip where you could do a swap at some point for a fully charged battery and then on the return trip swap again to get your original fully charged battery back in your car.

Canuck said:

It all sounds good in theory but technology is changing so fast that in 15 years I doubt many people will want to keep these cars on the road. The temptation of the new cars will just be too great.

Click to expand...

I agree that many people will upgrade but my point is that used Model S cars will retain a lot of value because of the amount of useful life left in them. They will not be like an ICE with 200K miles on it where the engine and trans have to be replaced and the body is rusted out so there is no point in replacing major components anyway.

ecarfan said:

Whoever you spoke with gave you incorrect information based on what I have read about the battery swap option! which has yet to be offered.

Battery swapping would be during a round trip where you could do a swap at some point for a fully charged battery and then on the return trip swap again to get your original fully charged battery back in your car.

Click to expand...

Both of these are incorrect. Elon has publicly stated that owners would receive a deduction if they get back a "better" battery than they arrived with...and get a credit if they get back a worse battery than they arrived with. Over time, the thought being this balance would stay...well...balanced.

At my age (7x), statistics tell me that the car will out-live me barring any major accident damage. Changing the battery or motor will be infinitely cheaper for me a decade or so from now than getting a whole new car UNLESS new technologies are incorporated that make it easy (given my diminishing skills down the road) for me to continue driving. At that point the car may have reached classic status and the closer to original it is, the more I may want to keep it in addition to a new car. Of course, younger folks with a longer timeline horizon may have to think differently. Just saying. Different strokes for different folks.

I'm not trying to be a hater here, but a few of my points are below. (I don't own a model S, but plan to purchase a model E)

-How would the model S body be any different than the body of any other car? If a model S is driven in salty conditions, what prevents the car (body specifically) from rusting out other than good care / cleaning?
-Where did we learn the motor would run 1 million miles? Why not 2 million? Why not 100k?
-We all know batteries deterriorate over time and I've seen the roadster study. The 200k to 300k mile estimate seems reasonable, but was this published by Tesla itself?

I believe most cars will last 20 - 25 years if you take very good care of them. With the low maintenance and fewer moving parts, I haveno reason to doubt this. However, I'd like to encourage everyone to take the sales assocaite's data with a grain of salt. Just like the guy at the Verizon store doesnt know when the new iPhone comes out, the Tesla tech specialist won't be able to predict the future of a single Model S. AND,as always, YMMV.

cheers.

viperboy said:

I'm not trying to be a hater here, but a few of my points are below. (I don't own a model S, but plan to purchase a model E)

-How would the model S body be any different than the body of any other car? If a model S is driven in salty conditions, what prevents the car (body specifically) from rusting out other than good care / cleaning?
-Where did we learn the motor would run 1 million miles? Why not 2 million? Why not 100k?
-We all know batteries deterriorate over time and I've seen the roadster study. The 200k to 300k mile estimate seems reasonable, but was this published by Tesla itself?

I believe most cars will last 20 - 25 years if you take very good care of them. With the low maintenance and fewer moving parts, I haveno reason to doubt this. However, I'd like to encourage everyone to take the sales assocaite's data with a grain of salt. Just like the guy at the Verizon store doesnt know when the new iPhone comes out, the Tesla tech specialist won't be able to predict the future of a single Model S. AND,as always, YMMV.

cheers.

Click to expand...

-Technically, rust is iron oxide. The Model S body is aluminum and contains no iron, so it cannot rust. That said, aluminum still corrodes from salt.
-I think the motor life is all theoretical for now, but electric motors really last forever. It's one of the benefits of having just one moving part.
-As for the battery, Tesla has mentioned in the past that they had a pack on a test bench with 500k miles and still running strong. The pack should theoretically last as long as the amount of degradation you're willing to live with.

Lastly, everybody knows when the new iPhone comes out well in advance.

Zextraterrestrial said:

motor should be good for 1000000 miles. bushings, door seals and seats might wear out first. Batteries should make it 200-300k miles still useable.

Click to expand...

In April 2013 Elon said one of their test vehicles already had over 500,000 miles on it and the battery pack was still working great soooo who knows how long these will really last. a very very long time.

Question for the OP and all others, too:

How well do you keep up your ICE vehicles? Let's see: 25 years back was 1989. Just about every vehicle that was manufactured then should be on the road still, given good maintenance. This does not refer to Yugos....but, fortunately for the NoAm market, none was sold here then - other than some left-over 1988 models.

25 years isn't much of a hurdle.

AudubonB said:

How well do you keep up your ICE vehicles? Let's see: 25 years back was 1989. Just about every vehicle that was manufactured then should be on the road still, given good maintenance.

Click to expand...

I doubt that, at least in the US, the majority of cars made in the 80's are still on the road. In those parts of the country where the roads are salted in the winter, the cars just rust out. And 25 year old cars typically have a lot of miles on them and are at the point where it is not economical to make major repairs to keep them running, so when something expensive breaks they are junked.

ecarfan said:

I doubt that, at least in the US, the majority of cars made in the 80's are still on the road. In those parts of the country where the roads are salted in the winter, the cars just rust out. And 25 year old cars typically have a lot of miles on them and are at the point where it is not economical to make major repairs to keep them running, so when something expensive breaks they are junked.

Click to expand...

I agree. While it isn't uncommon to see a car from the 80's, I'd seriously doubt there's more than 15-20% of the cars built 25 years ago still on the road.

The discussion about how many ICE cars are still on the road after 25 years prompted me to google the question, and I found this article from 2010:

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...=qUTCN5q8aHh8HFG2AICDGg&bvm=bv.64125504,d.b2I

They looked at car registrations by year of manufacture. Interestingly in their analysis it is the higher-end, luxury brands that remain on the road 25 years later - 85% for Porsche, 60% for Mercedes Benz, 34% for both BMW and Jaguar. For more common full-line brands like Ford, Toyota, Chrysler and GM, < 10% still on the road at 25 years.

The luxury brand owners (especially Porsche) take care of their vehicles. I suspect Tesla owners will be far more like Porsche owners than Pontiac owners (4.7%).

To me, it's a slam dunk that the Model S can last decades. I've always been one to hang on to a car for as long as possible. Inevitably with an ICE car, the reason I end up throwing in the towel after 10-15 years is because of either a transmission failure or an engine that is starting to drink oil...both huge parts of the car that are NOT easily replaced. The Model S has no transmission at all. Instead of a huge engine, it has a small motor. Sure, the battery pack is big, but it's modular, and can be replaced in minutes with the right tools. No, I don't expect the Model S to last decades without any replacements of these parts, but they're so easily replaced as to make the prospect of very long term ownership an easy bet. They're also so easily replaced that I predict a cottage industry someday that will have owners swapping motors or even batteries as casually as owners today replace rims, tires, stereo components, etc.