Will TSLA hit $280 by end of March?

Yes!

Do we think the other major players in the GF will announce their part by then? Or, what will be the catalyst?

EnergyMax said:

Do we think the other major players in the GF will announce their part by then? Or, what will be the catalyst?

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NHTSA clearance.

sleepyhead said:

NHTSA clearance.

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Now I'm going to have to find out how long NHTSA takes on average to clear a vehicle!

I vote yes because NHTSA clearance should (finally) happen this month, they may announce a giga factory partner, 6.0 should come out with 'awesome' upgrades and maybe (less likely) a Model X announcement. Also if there is truth to it, technical analysis seems to show a bullish trend. Also the overall sentiment in general for the stock still seems very positive and in a way, that is the most important thing of all.

I'm having trouble seeing how NHTSA clearance isn't priced in right now as a foregone conclusion. I don't see many people waiting for clearance to buy, except perhaps a small contingent of very stubborn shorts.

I see the risk being majorly to the downside on this, small as the risk may be. I'd be glad to be proven wrong and see a nice pop when they release the all-clear.

dha said:

I'm having trouble seeing how NHTSA clearance isn't priced in right now as a foregone conclusion. I don't see many people waiting for clearance to buy, except perhaps a small contingent of very stubborn shorts.

I see the risk being majorly to the downside on this, small as the risk may be. I'd be glad to be proven wrong and see a nice pop when they release the all-clear.

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It is priced in, but there is so much momentum in this stock that a clean bill from NHTSA would cause another 10% bump just from more momo traders jumping on board; enough to get us to $280. Maybe not all in one day, but over the course of a week or so and we will get there.

sleepyhead said:

It is priced in, but there is so much momentum in this stock that a clean bill from NHTSA would cause another 10% bump just from more momo traders jumping on board; enough to get us to $280. Maybe not all in one day, but over the course of a week or so and we will get there.

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Fair enough.

What do you see as the top for this run? I do not want to repeat the mistake I made around Q3 and am looking to hedge my stock/leaps with a costless collar at some point in the next few weeks. I believe the market will punish TSLA for lower deliveries in Q1 despite Elon's guidance during the last CC.

dha said:

Fair enough.

What do you see as the top for this run? I do not want to repeat the mistake I made around Q3 and am looking to hedge my stock/leaps with a costless collar at some point in the next few weeks. I believe the market will punish TSLA for lower deliveries in Q1 despite Elon's guidance during the last CC.

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I really don't know. I think that TSLA is heading to $400 and that it will be a smooth climb from here in a channel. Just look at NFLX chart.

Maybe it will go down on Q1, maybe it won't. Maybe they deliver 6400 and guide towards 9,000 in Q2 and the stock goes crazy. You never really know what is going to happen.

I am still running the vast majority of my LEAPS naked.

sleepyhead said:

I really don't know. I think that TSLA is heading to $400 and that it will be a smooth climb from here in a channel. Just look at NFLX chart.

Maybe it will go down on Q1, maybe it won't. Maybe they deliver 6400 and guide towards 9,000 in Q2 and the stock goes crazy. You never really know what is going to happen.

I am still running the vast majority of my LEAPS naked.

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I need more TSLA LEAPS!

EnergyMax said:

Now I'm going to have to find out how long NHTSA takes on average to clear a vehicle!

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pz1975 said:

I vote yes because NHTSA clearance should (finally) happen this month

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Are there any indications that NHTSA will issue a report soon?

I have no idea but I hope so. I have almost 0 exposure, looking for an entry - I better react because I may not have a chance !!!

I answered yes. On top of a small NHTSA bump, I suspect a bigger push will happen when one of the GF partners turns out to be some big, badass player with lots of cash, like Apple or Samsung or an auto manufacturer (Toyota or Daimler.) Either of those would shut up skeptics and send the stock up, up, up.

I answered "no" but my portfolio is set up to profit handsomely if I'm wrong.

I do not feel a positive NHTSA ruling alone will get us to $280 in that time frame. It will take something else that I don't see right now to get us there. Apple or Google partnership in factory. Rumor of Google considering buying TM. A couple of the more 'bearish/low ball' price target analysts changing their predictions. It would be there, and more, if Elon's trip with the family occurred in a model X in March...but it is in April.

Full disclosure: I have lost several bets with my TM friends as I seem to be more cautious in my predictions after the VIN counting Q3 ER debacle.

Also, we aren't 100% certain that the NHSTA will give tesla the all clear., right?

AlMc said:

Full disclosure: I have lost several bets with my TM friends as I seem to be more cautious in my predictions after the VIN counting Q3 ER debacle.

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Yea, enthusiasm can get a bit carried away here. Before the Q4 ER, I remember at least one person claiming there would be a huge GAAP profit and we didn't even get close to that.

However, $280 is only a little over 10% away. I wouldn't bet against it, though I wouldn't bet for it either.

I voted no, if it hits $280 that would make it a double since early January, I feel NHTSA & GF are priced in & might trigger a "sell on the news" situation...I wouldn't complain if it happens just not adding short term.

I think there are way more people looking for a point to get in than get out. That should keep the sideways movement alternating with upward pressure going strong for awhile. Sentiment is as string as ever. I wonder if there were never any fires what TSLA would be trading at now - no way the reaction to the Q3 ER would have been so severe without such negative sentiment.