Locking in to Li-ion is just a mistake. Better and cheaper battery technology is coming before the gigafactory even starts production. Elon and partners will be making a big mistake thinking they will be able to undercut the competition's costs. Hopefully, they will realize this before too much longer.
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Gigacapacitor?
- Thread starter Bob Carver
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Locking in to Li-ion is just a mistake. Better and cheaper battery technology is coming before the gigafactory even starts production. Elon and partners will be making a big mistake thinking they will be able to undercut the competition's costs. Hopefully, they will realize this before too much longer.
But they take up much more space, are much heavier, and don't last as many charge/discharge cycles. LiIon is already cost competitive over the life of the battery. If LiIon gets less expensive it my tip the balance in favor.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Who said they are locking in???
The PDF (all we have for now) says "Raw materials" "Anode" "Cathode" "Separator" "Electrolyte" "Casing". Nowhere does it say "Lithium".
If one company is showing the ability to adapt and iterate on the fly in this business I'd say it's Tesla.
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
Bob,
What do you think the chances are that Elon and his team are going to get blind sided by battery technology?
What do you think the chances are that Elon and his team are going to get blind sided by battery technology?
palmer_md
Member
Slim. They are on top of it, and have hired some of the best to make sure they stay on top of developments in this area. This factory can adapt to chemistry tweaks if something develops, but they are building what will be the best battery available when the plant starts up.
I agree that weight is not important for stationary grid applications, but Tesla is already getting costs down to near LbA and this factory will bring them that much closer, and then when you look at the performance benefits of Li from the better power density, lack of peukert effects, and most importantly longevity, these batteries are starting to look well suited for stationary grid storage. Tesla is way out ahead on this one, and they are positioning themselves to be the center of the energy storage world.
That's why I posted about alternatives. If Elon remains open to them, it won't be a problem. But, everything I read says the gigafactory is going to produce Li-ion batteries.
palmer_md
Member
What new and better alternative is there that will be in production within two to three years?
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
My question to Bob was rhetorical as I thought the answer was obvious to even the most casual Tesla observer.
I can't provide any details right now, unfortunately, but prototypes of one type of device (not a battery, but a capacitor) have been developed which have several times the energy capacity of Li-ion and are much cheaper as well. Plus, since it's a capactor, charge time should be about the same time as filling up a tank of gas and should last for millions of cycles. I just hope the gigafactory concept is flexible enough to adapt to this newer and better technology when it becomes available and not get locked into Li-ion batteries.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I think they know this. You do know Elon did PhD work on supercapacitors while at Stanford?
palmer_md
Member
I've been hearing stories of EEStor for a decade...its just around the corner. I hope they figure it out, but nobody in the right mind would stop progress in other areas waiting for EEStor.
Yes, I did know that and I was surprised that he's planning to invest $1.6 billion in Li-ion technology!
BTW, I doubt that Elon knows about this technology since the developer is extremely secretive about it (which is why I can't provide details right now).
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The problem with EEStor is that they took a known data point which shows extremely high capacitance at low voltage and assumed they could simply pump the voltage up and gain capacitance in a linear way. The problem is that they assumed that the dielectric constant is constant over the entire voltage range, but it isn't a constant! That's why they've never been able to achieve their goal. It's basically a very poor assumption that killed EEStor.
palmer_md
Member
Elon is well aware of many of the "fringe" companies, and he takes everything serious and looks at the core of every technology to asses their application to what Tesla is doing. I've seen him comment on several of these such as eestor, quantumscape, etc. If you know about it, and your not the only one, then he likely does too. If this is such a secret, then they do not have a prototype or an independently verified proof of concept. That being the case, there is no way they can reach full production in time to have any effect on Tesla's gigafactory. Elon would welcome a supercapacitor if a viable one existed, but since it does not, and he needs to have something in three years in order to start production on the Model E, that is what we have. Any comments about some super secret technology that might come out is just a distraction. Lets keep this thread on the subject of the Tesla gigafactory that will be built to supply batteries for Tesla vehicles and Tesla Energy Storage Modules.
Is that several times the energy capacity on a weight basis, a volume basis, or both?
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I'll believe it when I see it. Mass produced at competitive price. Until then my money is on Musk & c/o.
Gradual iterations and economics of scale with proven technology is sometimes less sexy than a revolutionary new product - a leap in technology - but most progress comes through continous gradual iteration, while the leap sounds great it is a very uncommon phenomenon in real life.
Musk left the Stanford PhD program after 2 days to pursue his entrepreneurial ambitions.
NigelM
Recovering Member
palmer_md
Member
I think we can stop talking about this mystery device which has not been seen by anyone in the world. Without independent verification, this is just a poor attempt at FUD to keep Tesla from building a gigafactory.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Yes let's.
Also re Nigel's post of Bob's blog post. C'mon guy: "Other peoples money"??? You're on my ignore list.
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
Gigaboner? Really?
Are we dealing with a child here?
One with the magic sauce that no one else knows about?
Are we dealing with a child here?
One with the magic sauce that no one else knows about?
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