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Model X Estimated Wait Times for North America

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Wanted to take a stab on an estimated delivery model based on some data we have so far.

Assumptions:
  • A few Signatures being delivered at the end of 2014, but more likely early 2015
  • based on "full" production of 550 a week getting achieved by June 2015 (a little later than announced to account for additional delays)
  • backlog down to 1 quarter wait by Dec 2015.
  • other markets not included in the model yet, which will likely add to the timeline.

Delivery DateSignatures SeriesProductionNet DeliveriesWeekly Prod RateHolder RangeReservedWait Time (Months)
Dec-14 12 - 12 3Signatures Up to 10Feb-12 34
Jan-15 400 - 412 100Signature 10 to 400Mar-12 34
Feb-15 600 - 1,012 150Signature Up to 1000Mar-12 35
Mar-15 188 1,012 2,212 300Signature up to 1200May-12 34
Apr-15 1,600 3,812 400Production 1600Oct-12 30
May-15 2,000 5,812 500Production 3600Feb-13 27
Jun-15 2,200 8,012 550Production 5800Dec-13 18
Jul-15 2,200 10,212 550Production 8000Feb-14 17
Aug-15 2,200 12,412 550Production 10200May-14 15
Sep-15 2,200 14,612 550Production 12400Sep-14 12
Oct-15 2,200 16,812 550Production 14600Jan-15 9
Nov-15 2,200 19,012 550Production 16800May-15 6
Dec-15 2,200 21,212 550Production 19000Sep-15 3
Explanations:
Delivery Date: Month of Delivery
Signature Series/Production: Number of Deliveries
Net Deliveries: Signatures + Production Deliveries
Weekly Prod Rate: production per week
Holder Range: Starting range of reservation number at the beginning of the delivery month
Reserved: Date of reservation number or estimated date of reservation number (future dated from May-14 to Sep-15)
Wait Time (Months): # of months between delivery rate and month of reservation.
 
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Hi Paul,
Thank you for starting this. I hope they can ramp up production that quickly and that there won't be delays in between.

However, they just announced that the first deliveries would be in Q1. This has meant at the end of Q1 on most of the Model S timelines which is the last few days of March which would push your entire schedule back by 3.5 months.

I really hope it won't be the case this time and that they will surprise us with an early Q1 delivery.
 
Nice model, but I would change the ramp up rate to be something like below. Every time you double production rate, you learn something new...I would keep the ramp up rate at 2x per month for the first several months.
  1. 5
  2. 10
  3. 20
  4. 40
  5. 80
  6. 160
  7. 300
  8. 400
  9. 500
  10. 550
  11. 550
  12. ...
 
Thank-you all for the comments. And do please keep the comments coming... I'll update the model based new info, general consensus, etc..

I tried aligning some of the early reservation dates with a guesstimates (sometimes hard to find the exact dates in the Tally). I used a few graphs that were posted to plug the unknowns using some straight lines extrapolations. So comments are appreciated to correct those (like Nigels!)
 
Sig X #87, Feb '12

Looks like they have slipped the schedule one year after two calendar years. Below is a portion on my confirmation e-mail from Feb '12, two years ago. Typical Tesla optimism...

Model X Res.png
 
Nice thread idea. Will be interesting to align the actual production against whatever our best guess ends up at. I agree that your schedule, specifically the first few months, is very aggressive. I would move the initial Sig deliveries to January or February, and tamp down the first few months' production numbers--eg 50/100/150 instead of 100/150/300. I'd love to be wrong, though!
 
Your wait times chart is far too optimistic.
I believe the Model X ramp up is going to be totally dependent on battery availability. Tesla has mentioned in the past that it wants a Model X first year output of 15,000 vehicles. They have probably secured battery production from both Panasonic and Samsung to cover this production rate. I find it highly unlikely that Tesla will be able to increase much past 15,000 Model X vehicles in its first year of production since Tesla is very focused on quality over quantity when producing new vehicles and the fact that the battery suppliers will probably not be able to keep up with demand. This means that a total of about 7-8 thousand Model X vehicles will be produced next year. The wait list is currently over 11,000 and will likely be much higher next year when production starts. Wait times are going to be very long right through 2016 as battery suppliers ramp up production and Tesla works out the bugs.
 
It's hard to predict how many of the reservations will turn into actual orders. If everyone does place an order, it could easily fill up all of the available 2015 production. I'm remaining optimistic that the schedule will be similar to Model S where the wait time was down to as little as 3 months by the end of 2012 despite the long reservation list. However, that was largely the result of late availability of options that left earlier reservation holders waiting, and I expect that will be less of an issue this time due to shared components with Model S.

I'm beginning to get concerned that Model X may not even be an option for me come November 2015 when I'll be looking for my next vehicle. Even though it's my dream vehicle based on what I currently know, there's too little known about what the finished product will contain and cost with options or what more affordable hybrid alternatives may be available 2 years from now. If business continues to be successful there's a good chance I'll be able to afford one, but whether that's an investment I will want to make when the time comes remains to be seen. I have a hard time giving Tesla $5,000 to hold onto just to guarantee a spot when there's a greater likelihood I'll be asking for it back than placing an order. I'm sure there's many others in the same boat, so hopefully we find out more before it's too late.
 
I wanted to try and do a more detailed update based on a some new data for the model such as:

  • replies to this thread and continued research on reservation dates. (fixed some holes in the early signature and production estimates). Thanks for the replies, it really helped.
  • suggestions for weekly production rates over time
  • TM website saying new reservations would have expected delivery of Summer 2015, but still saying deliveries starting in 2014.

Using Summer 2015 = end of September and North America reservations around 9,000 at the moment. They'll need to deliver approx. 10,200 cars by September 21, 2015 (end of Summer).

Estimated DeliveryTotalsTotal
Units
ProducedWeekly
Rate
Model XReserved StartReserved End
YearMonthWeekSignatureProductionUnitsYearMonthWeekRateVersionPeriodRangeWait MonthsPeriodRangeWait Months
2014123 5 - 520141215NA SignatureFeb-12 135Feb-12 534
2014124 10 - 1020141225NA SignatureFeb-12 635Feb-12 1035
2014125 15 - 1520141235NA SignatureFeb-12 1135Feb-12 1635
201511 20 - 2020141245NA SignatureFeb-12 1735Feb-12 2235
201512 25 - 2520141255NA SignatureFeb-12 2336Feb-12 2835
201513 35 - 3520151110NA SignatureFeb-12 2936Feb-12 3935
201514 45 - 4520151210NA SignatureFeb-12 4036Feb-12 5035
201521 55 - 5520151310NA SignatureFeb-12 5136Feb-12 6136
201522 65 - 6520151410NA SignatureFeb-12 6237Feb-12 7236
201523 85 - 8520152120NA SignatureJun-12 7333Jun-12 9332
201524 105 - 10520152220NA SignatureJun-12 9433Jun-12 11432
201531 125 - 12520152320NA SignatureJun-12 11533Jun-12 13533
201532 145 - 14520152420NA SignatureJun-12 13634Jul-12 15632
201533 185 - 18520153140NA SignatureJul-12 15732Sep-12 19730
201534 225 - 22520153240NA SignatureSep-12 19830Nov-12 23828
201535 265 - 26520153340NA SignatureNov-12 23928Nov-12 27928
201541 345 - 34520153480NA SignatureNov-12 28029Jan-13 36027
201542 425 - 42520153580NA SignatureJan-13 36127Apr-13 44124
201543 585 - 585201541160NA SignatureJan-13 44227May-13 60223
201544 745 - 745201542160NA SignatureMay-13 60323Sep-13 76319
201551 905 - 905201543160NA SignatureSep-13 76419Oct-13 92418
201552 1,065 - 1,065201544160NA SignatureOct-13 92519Nov-13 1,08518
201553 1,200 - 1,200201551114/300NA SignatureDec-13 1,08617Mar-14 1,200*14
201553
186 1,386201551186/300NA ProductionFeb-12 140Feb-12 18639
201554
487 1,687201552300NA ProductionFeb-12 18740Feb-12 48739
201561
788 1,988201553300NA ProductionFeb-12 48840Feb-12 78840
201562
1,089 2,289201554300NA ProductionApr-12 78939Jul-12 1,08935
201563
1,490 2,690201561400NA ProductionJul-12 1,09035Oct-12 1,49032
201564
1,891 3,091201562400NA ProductionOct-12 1,49132Nov-12 1,89131
201565
2,292 3,492201563400NA ProductionNov-12 1,89233Dec-12 2,29231
201571
2,693 3,893201564400NA ProductionDec-12 2,29331Jan-13 2,69330
201572
3,094 4,294201565400NA ProductionJan-13 2,69430Apr-13 3,09427
201573
3,645 4,845201571550NA ProductionApr-13 3,09527Apr-13 3,64527
201574
4,196 5,396201572550NA ProductionApr-13 3,64627Jun-13 4,19625
201581
4,747 5,947201573550NA ProductionJun-13 4,19725Jul-13 4,74724
201582
5,298 6,498201574550NA ProductionJul-13 4,74825Jul-13 5,29825
201583
5,899 7,099201581600NA ProductionJul-13 5,29925Aug-13 5,89924
201584
6,500 7,700201582600NA ProductionAug-13 5,90024Oct-13 6,50022
201585
7,101 8,301201583600NA ProductionOct-13 6,50122Nov-13 7,10121
201591
7,702 8,902201584600NA ProductionOct-13 7,10223Jan-14 7,70219
201592
8,353 9,553201591650NA ProductionJan-14 7,70320Feb-14 8,35319
201593
9,004 10,204201592650NA ProductionFeb-14 8,35419Apr-14 9,00417
201594
9,655 10,855201593650NA ProductionApr-14 9,00517Apr-14 9,65517

Footnotes:
* assuming 1,200 signatures maximum to produced - the last reservation holder #1356 might be delivery # 1,200. In the first week of May they switch to the Production version.

Summary:
Signatures waits range from 14 to 35/36 months.
Production waits range from 17 to 40 months.
 
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I've been assuming that the 2014 deliveries will be Founder series, not Signature series. No way to know, of course.
Between Tesla's track record on meeting promised dates and the language used around that, lately... I'd tend to agree. Founders cars in the last week of 2014. First Sigs at some point in 1H15. First Production cars in late LATE 2015.
But specific to the model above, I think the scenario is well researched buy WAY optimistic.
I don't understand the justification for the jump from 160 Sig to 300 Production cars for one thing. And the rather aggressive ramp up to 650 in just 4 months.
But as far as speculation goes, this is well done.