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Thread: Model X Estimated Wait Times for North America

  1. #1
    Member Paul Carter's Avatar
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    Icon1 Model X Estimated Wait Times for North America

    Wanted to take a stab on an estimated delivery model based on some data we have so far.

    Assumptions:
    • A few Signatures being delivered at the end of 2014, but more likely early 2015
    • based on "full" production of 550 a week getting achieved by June 2015 (a little later than announced to account for additional delays)
    • backlog down to 1 quarter wait by Dec 2015.
    • other markets not included in the model yet, which will likely add to the timeline.


    Delivery Date Signatures Series Production Net Deliveries Weekly Prod Rate Holder Range Reserved Wait Time (Months)
    Dec-14 12 - 12 3 Signatures Up to 10 Feb-12 34
    Jan-15 400 - 412 100 Signature 10 to 400 Mar-12 34
    Feb-15 600 - 1,012 150 Signature Up to 1000 Mar-12 35
    Mar-15 188 1,012 2,212 300 Signature up to 1200 May-12 34
    Apr-15 1,600 3,812 400 Production 1600 Oct-12 30
    May-15 2,000 5,812 500 Production 3600 Feb-13 27
    Jun-15 2,200 8,012 550 Production 5800 Dec-13 18
    Jul-15 2,200 10,212 550 Production 8000 Feb-14 17
    Aug-15 2,200 12,412 550 Production 10200 May-14 15
    Sep-15 2,200 14,612 550 Production 12400 Sep-14 12
    Oct-15 2,200 16,812 550 Production 14600 Jan-15 9
    Nov-15 2,200 19,012 550 Production 16800 May-15 6
    Dec-15 2,200 21,212 550 Production 19000 Sep-15 3
    Explanations:
    Delivery Date: Month of Delivery
    Signature Series/Production: Number of Deliveries
    Net Deliveries: Signatures + Production Deliveries
    Weekly Prod Rate: production per week
    Holder Range: Starting range of reservation number at the beginning of the delivery month
    Reserved: Date of reservation number or estimated date of reservation number (future dated from May-14 to Sep-15)
    Wait Time (Months): # of months between delivery rate and month of reservation.
    Last edited by Paul Carter; 2014-02-20 at 11:09 PM.
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  2. #2
    Waiting for the Model X&☰ gjunky's Avatar
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    Hi Paul,
    Thank you for starting this. I hope they can ramp up production that quickly and that there won't be delays in between.

    However, they just announced that the first deliveries would be in Q1. This has meant at the end of Q1 on most of the Model S timelines which is the last few days of March which would push your entire schedule back by 3.5 months.

    I really hope it won't be the case this time and that they will surprise us with an early Q1 delivery.

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  3. #3
    Roadster#433, Model S#S37 Cottonwood's Avatar
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    Nice model, but I would change the ramp up rate to be something like below. Every time you double production rate, you learn something new...I would keep the ramp up rate at 2x per month for the first several months.
    1. 5
    2. 10
    3. 20
    4. 40
    5. 80
    6. 160
    7. 300
    8. 400
    9. 500
    10. 550
    11. 550
    12. ...

  4. #4
    R1211 & S282 NigelM's Avatar
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    Nice job Paul. Your reservation dates are somewhat off, which makes the wait times appear too long. I have Sig #313 and I reserved in Jan '13; that's 10 months later than you have listed.

  5. #5
    Member Paul Carter's Avatar
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    Thank-you all for the comments. And do please keep the comments coming... I'll update the model based new info, general consensus, etc..

    I tried aligning some of the early reservation dates with a guesstimates (sometimes hard to find the exact dates in the Tally). I used a few graphs that were posted to plug the unknowns using some straight lines extrapolations. So comments are appreciated to correct those (like Nigels!)
    @60GRAYEV | Model X - Signature # 3 (Canada) | Model S 60 | 19" Silver Cyclone w Primacy | Old Gray | Gray Leather | Piano Black/Yacht | Parcel Shelf | Tech | Park Sensors | SC | VIN 33117 | Dep 5/9/14 | Delivered 5/14/14
    Any review, re-transmission, dissemination or other use of this post, or the taking of any action in reliance upon this information by persons and/or entities other than the intended recipient or without my consent is prohibited.

  6. #6
    Member Newscutter's Avatar
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    Placed my reservation on 9/29/13 for #6005 production.... so the wait time is even longer than it seems (and is charted).
    Follow the blog: TESLA Pittsburgh * Model X Reservation Holder #6005.
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  7. #7
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    Sig 184 - That was Sept 12.

    And to think that when I rushed down to put in my deposit, I had a momentary moment of panic when I thought all the Signature reservations had been taken
    Roadster Sport #969 (Jet Black). "NV MYEV"
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  8. #8
    Sig #27, Feb '12

  9. #9
    Roadster#433, Model S#S37 Cottonwood's Avatar
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    Sig X #87, Feb '12

    Looks like they have slipped the schedule one year after two calendar years. Below is a portion on my confirmation e-mail from Feb '12, two years ago. Typical Tesla optimism...

    Name:  Model X Res.png
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  10. #10
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    Nice thread idea. Will be interesting to align the actual production against whatever our best guess ends up at. I agree that your schedule, specifically the first few months, is very aggressive. I would move the initial Sig deliveries to January or February, and tamp down the first few months' production numbers--eg 50/100/150 instead of 100/150/300. I'd love to be wrong, though!

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