Tesla to build Super Charger Network in China

Checkmate. My prediction is Tesla will be production constrained for the next decade, no matter how many they are able to produce.

MikeC said:

Checkmate. My prediction is Tesla will be production constrained for the next decade, no matter how many they are able to produce.

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those cities are 700 miles apart I believe, so 4-5 supercharger locations I presume at least?

MikeC said:

Checkmate. My prediction is Tesla will be production constrained for the next decade, no matter how many they are able to produce.

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I'll take a piece of that prediction pie.

MikeC said:

Checkmate. My prediction is Tesla will be production constrained for the next decade, no matter how many they are able to produce.

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Would depend on a couple of factors, but I could see this totally happening. As the shift toward EV's gets stronger, charging networks get built out, people will stop having excuses to not buy an EV. The only ones who will continue to fight this to the bitter end will be "purists" who "like the smell, feel, and sound of their gas engine"... whatever... I saw someone post the best retort to that which was along the lines of: "yeah I like my single piston steam engine too! Great sounds! And when I cross the finish line I can even blow my whistle".

Anyway, assuming their ramp up holds true (700k cars a year by 2019) then a couple of things will likely need to happen in order to make them still supply locked. First gen3 will HAVE to get pushed at 35k (starting) and get 200 miles (60KW battery?). With the 7500$ tax credit, that pushes it sub 30k for an individual, and makes this a really well priced car (assuming the tax credit is going to continue sticking around for a while). Second, competition will have to stay minimal. I am talking REAL competition (ie. another 200 mile car gets released from someone else). Third, charging. Using the US as an example (since I feel I can speak on our country better than trying to think about countries I have never visited... maybe someone else can chime in here) there needs to be an option to charge your car if you are a renter or if you live in a unit that either has a parking garage, or are otherwise unable to install your own outlet. These need to be at a minimum 50A plugs (40A draw to the car). If this this separately "metered" it must be at the same/similar price for power that we pay currently (11 cents per kWh, as opposed to some of these meters which charge upward to 90 cents per kWh).

Given the global market sales projections of 200 million cars a year (I think that was it) by 2020, hitting around 1 million a year would be a drop in the bucket, but there are a lot of consumers out there who are worried about range vs price vs ability to charge, and that will keep them from getting the car. If those three things outlined above can hold (or maybe even 2 of the 3), then I could see this easily being true.

RobStark said:

Each OEM gets 200k allotment for the $7500 credit. If Tesla has not sold a Total of 200k cars by the time Model E rolls around it will be very close. Maybe the first 20k-40k Model E customers get the $7500 credit.

Renters. Condo/Co-op

As more people buy EVs there will be more demand for apartment and condo charging.

Some landlord or homeowners association will install EV charging stations as a way to get a competitive edge. Charge a bit more for rent or boost condo/co-op values.

Then more will do the same.

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Thanks for the reminder on the tax credit, I always forget that it is based on how many cars they sell. This kinda sucks because Tesla is going to hit the mark well before any other manufacturer... Hopefully at the end of the tax credit they will be able to just drop the price of the car by 7500 to stay competitive with the other brands? Even if not, if they have a superior product, no real worry here.

condo/rent charging: I wasn't saying it wouldn't happen, I was just saying that it will need to happen in order to have the full market be available to them. Right now, 35% of the population rents, and about 10% live in a condo (yes, some condos have their own garage, my place is like that, however some "houses" have a general parking lot too, so I would guess this balances out on some level).

So, you are talking about around 45% of the population that are going to need enough of an EV adoption rate that Renting Owners or Condo Associations will see value in investing in it. It is already happening in some places, and I have no doubt that it will happen everywhere eventually, but it is still something that short-to-medium term will determine how much market they actually have access to for their 35k car.

RobStark said:

In March 2012 CA Governor Brown Signs SB 880 Dealing With Electric Vehicle Charging Stations in multi-unit dwellings.

http://driveclean.ca.gov/pev/Charging/Home_Charging/Multi-unit_Dwellings.php


It will take time to implement but this law combined with market forces will make changes first in greater LA and the Bay area.

Then California. Then what happens in CA usually spreads to the rest of the country.

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I like this law. That is a good law. It isn't requiring they be installed or even having the government pay for it. Just saying that if a tenant wants one installed then they should be allowed to get it. A law that actually does nothing more than to protect a private person to be able to do what should otherwise be a perfectly acceptable thing. Shocker!

I note this in the article of January 22, 2014:

A Fair Price

By The Tesla Motors Team

"... That means the price of a Model S in China is the same as the price of a Model S in the US, adding only unavoidable taxes, customs duties and transportation costs. We're not even factoring in the cost of the free-to-use Supercharger network that Tesla will build across China."

So if the Chinese customer is not paying for this Supercharger network across China, who is? I paid $2,000 for Supercharger access for my car, so why not the Chinese? Just asking... ???

Canuck said:

I note this in the article of January 22, 2014:

A Fair Price

By The Tesla Motors Team

"... That means the price of a Model S in China is the same as the price of a Model S in the US, adding only unavoidable taxes, customs duties and transportation costs. We're not even factoring in the cost of the free-to-use Supercharger network that Tesla will build across China."

So if the Chinese customer is not paying for this Supercharger network across China, who is? I paid $2,000 for Supercharger access for my car, so why not the Chinese? Just asking... ???

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$2k is a small chunk of gross margin, and they may feel that with the high taxes it's worth ignoring it.

Right now the only cars available for sale in China are the 85kWh models. There is no extra charge for supercharger access on the 85kWh models even in Canada or the US. It's essentially included in the cost of the car.

The unlikely battle between Elon Musk and Warren Buffett to sell electric cars in China Quartz

With more than enough buyers for everything BYD and Tesla can produce the media still focuses on the competition (even when the models are not comparable) as if there can be only one EV company.

BYD Gets Nod to Sell Electric Cars in Beijing, Shanghai: WSJ -Caijing

Looks like China got the European style plug (from the video link in the China delivery thread)

So all we need is a Euro to US style adapter (meaning allow a Chinese or European car to use US superchargers) to enable the fastest round-the-world drive in an EV.

First supercharger open in China

“@TeslaMotors: China is charged! This week we switched on our first Superchargers in China. http://twitter.com/TeslaMotors/status/460144621423587330/photo/1