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"Do the Math: The Movie"

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ggies07

Active Member
Nov 8, 2012
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DFW
I'm making a separate thread for this because I think more people need to see it. If the mods want to move it into the Global Warming thread, so be it.

The guy talking in the video is Bill, who is the co-founder of 350.org and the author of Oil and Honey. I highly recommend you read this book.

 
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Simpathy for the 350.org. To this purpose I would like to point out that from the studies that have been done in 2050 the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere will be 450 ppm in the best case. But it could also be 550 ppm if mankind doesn't pay attention to this issue.
To this concern see post #634 of the thread on Global Warming.

Climate Change / Global Warming Discussion

I would also like to point out that IMO extreme behaviours can also worsen the situation of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. From the video that I saw in your post I had the feeling of an extreme attitude of 350.org.
 
Simpathy for the 350.org. To this purpose I would like to point out that from the studies that have been done in 2050 the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere will be 450 ppm in the best case. But it could also be 550 ppm if mankind doesn't pay attention to this issue.
To this concern see post #634 of the thread on Global Warming.

Climate Change / Global Warming Discussion

I would also like to point out that IMO extreme behaviours can also worsen the situation of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. From the video that I saw in your post I had the feeling of an extreme attitude of 350.org.

The video shows that there are three key numbers:

1) 2 degrees Celsius is the number scientists agreed on for how much more the earth temp can rise without it being a problem
2) 565 gigatons is how much more can go into our atmosphere until it hits 2 degrees, which is about 15 more years until we go past that threshold
3) The oil companies already have 2,795 gigatons in reserves. Thats 5 times more than a safe amount.

I don't have time to back read that whole thread, sorry, it's huge. What do you propose we do then? Getting people to buy EVs and solar panels is sending a good, but slow message. I think the approach 350.org came up with of divesting in the oil companies is a great way to get that industry to look up and see change is happening.
 
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…/ I would also like to point out that IMO extreme behaviors can also worsen the situation of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. /…
How?

I asked you about what it is that you think is extreme about 350.org in the Global Warming thread (Post #659). And you answered:

@SwedishAdvocate

I also some months ago thought that a CO2 concentration in the atmosphere of 350 ppm was possible within 2050. But then from the studies that I did I realized that on the contrary only two possible scenarios are possible (see post #634):

1) A CO2 concentration of 450 ppm in 2050 if we reduce CO2 emissions by 20% within 2020 and 90% within 2050.
2) A CO2 concentration of 550 ppm in 2050 if we reduce CO2 emissions by 10% within 2020 and 80% within 2050.

I think that if we want to be realistic we must try to get first scenario (and it will be hard to get this target), because if we will get the second scenario the Earth will be very different with respect to today.
I don’t really get why out of everything written about Global Warming you pick this obviously delimited Australian review (and that's the same review you're referring to in your post #2 above in this thread)…

Here are some of the reactions to that review according to Wikipedia:

[My underline and bold]

It was /…/ heavily criticised by environmental organisations, including Friends of the Earth[10] and Rising Tide.[11] The Australian Conservation Foundation praised the report for advocating a 450 ppm target, but was critical of Professor Garnaut’s 550ppm second best option and described the 2020 target of 10 per cent as weak.[12]

Dr Clive Hamilton was heavily critical of the report, arguing that it reduced global expectations of what should be aimed for, naively exposed Australia's negotiating tactics to the international diplomatic sphere, alienates both the Australian public and the international community, misjudges the time frames necessary to avoid dangerous climate change, gives Australia numerous special deals, and would be rejected by the international community.[13]

Responses from political parties were mixed. Australian Greens leader Bob Brown suggested that the report demonstrated that reducing greenhouse gas emissions would not come at the expense of Australia's economic growth.[14] Climate Change Minister Penny Wong did not comment directly on the report but said that economic responsibility needed to be considered in responding to the report, and that the Government would wait for Treasury modelling on climate change mitigation before responding.[15]


Source: Garnaut Climate Change Review - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

So why do you delimit your own thinking with regards to what kinds of reductions of Green House Gas (GHG) emissions could be possible, if humanity as a whole – or at least the democratic countries – really got serious about cutting emissions as much as possible?

The science is clear. We have to get back to 350 ppm CO2. And we have to do that as fast as possible. If we somehow manage to do that faster than some Australian dude expected 5 or so years ago – so what? Wouldn’t that be friggin marvelous?

Tesla stunned the world with what was possible with the Roadster, the Model S and the Supercharger network. How many thought those kinds of achievements were possible? These are the kinds of achievement we are going to need across the board.

So, who are we – or anyone else – to say, or think, that it isn’t possible?
 
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@SwedishAdvocate and ggies07

I really like your "believer" attitude. It's the same attitude that I had when I started to study this matter of Climate Change/Global Warming. In fact also for me it would be great to go back to a CO2 concentration in the atmosphere of 350 ppm. IMO such a CO2 concentration would be good for the Earth not only for the GreenHouse effect but also to improve the acidification of the oceans issue.
But I would like to point that CO2 in the atmosphere that is not absorbed by land and oceans has a looooong life (one century) and that we are still continuing to emit heavily CO2 in the atmosphere. So, even if I very much appreciate the efforts that Elon and Tesla are doing to try to work out this problem (I am a Tesla enthusiast for this reason), I think that it is very difficult to go back to a CO2 concentration in the atmosphere of 350 ppm. I would love to get such a target of course but I see too many resistances at global level to get it.
Yes if we got rid of oil companies we could get better results but this is not possible because you can't simply get rid of oil companies without having built before a valid alternative to the oil company. This is the main thing. And you must realize that if you use an extreme behaviour thinking that you can get rid of oil companies without having first built a valid alternative you will also worsen the situation from the point of view of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere because people will not listen to you anymore.
I very much appreciate the efforts that President Obama is doing in this respect. President Obama in 2015 has the target to get an agreement at global level to lower CO2 emissions and I think that this is the way to go.
Yes you are right. Mankind is taking the risk to get a no return point where the enironmental issue could not be worked out anymore but IMO problem is that not everybody realizes it. I see it each day. When I try to face this matter with my friends they just don't care. And if it is difficult to convince your friends I think that it is even more difficult to convince Governments all around the world to face this environmental issue.
 
@SwedishAdvocate and ggies07

I really like your "believer" attitude. It's the same attitude that I had when I started to study this matter of Climate Change/Global Warming. In fact also for me it would be great to go back to a CO2 concentration in the atmosphere of 350 ppm. IMO such a CO2 concentration would be good for the Earth not only for the GreenHouse effect but also to improve the acidification of the oceans issue. /…
That’s great!

…/ But I would like to point that CO2 in the atmosphere that is not absorbed by land and oceans has a looooong life (one century) and that we are still continuing to emit heavily CO2 in the atmosphere. So, even if I very much appreciate the efforts that Elon and Tesla are doing to try to work out this problem (I am a Tesla enthusiast for this reason), I think that it is very difficult to go back to a CO2 concentration in the atmosphere of 350 ppm. /…
That’s why we have to cut as much GHG emissions as we can – as fast as possible.

…/ I would love to get such a target of course but I see too many resistances at global level to get it. /…
In a democracy a majority of the voters decide. We don’t have do win everyone. We only need 50,1% of each electorate. If we can get to 50,1%, then getting even more shouldn’t be that difficult in comparison.

…/ Yes if we got rid of oil companies we could get better results but this is not possible because you can't simply get rid of oil companies without having built before a valid alternative to the oil company. This is the main thing. And you must realize that if you use an extreme behaviour thinking that you can get rid of oil companies without having first built a valid alternative you will also worsen the situation from the point of view of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere because people will not listen to you anymore. /…
Here you’re making a bunch of assumptions that I can’t really see the reason for. If people understand that there is a limit to how much GHG we can emit without crossing the 2 degree Celcius target, then they’ll understand that this madness has to stop. Again: All we need is 50,1% of the electorate. Then there are many ways to stop the oil corporations from crossing the established limit. We can use a carbon tax. We can expropriate these companies. We can do whatever we want.

…/ I very much appreciate the efforts that President Obama is doing in this respect. President Obama in 2015 has the target to get an agreement at global level to lower CO2 emissions and I think that this is the way to go. /…
I don’t have his proposal fresh in my head, but I seriously doubt what Obama is proposing is anything near what is needed. Again. We need 50,1%. Then Obama will have to do what we want, or he’ll be out of office. But he’ll be out of office soon anyways…

…/ Yes you are right. Mankind is taking the risk to get a no return point where the enironmental issue could not be worked out anymore but IMO problem is that not everybody realizes it. I see it each day. When I try to face this matter with my friends they just don't care. And if it is difficult to convince your friends I think that it is even more difficult to convince Governments all around the world to face this environmental issue.
I understand. If possible – and if you want to (of course) – you can try something else. For say – every two week long period, instead of spending an evening or a Saturday or Sunday with your friends – spend that day or evening by either:

a) Organizing for a political party that you can get behind, and that is really serious about reducing GHG emissions.

...or,

b) Some sort of other organization that you can get behind, and that is really serious about reducing GHG emissions.

Spending some time with people who are as passionate as yourself, and who also ‘get it’, and doing some worth while work together every two weeks or so, can do wonders for boosting ones morale.
 
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The video shows that there are three key numbers:

1) 2 degrees Celsius is the number scientists agreed on for how much more the earth temp can rise without it being a problem
2) 565 gigatons is how much more can go into our atmosphere until it hits 2 degrees, which is about 15 more years until we go past that threshold
3) The oil companies already have 2,795 gigatons in reserves. Thats 5 times more than a safe amount.

I don't have time to back read that whole thread, sorry, it's huge. What do you propose we do then? Getting people to buy EVs and solar panels is sending a good, but slow message. I think the approach 350.org came up with of divesting in the oil companies is a great way to get that industry to look up and see change is happening.

I was studying this matter and I found out that it's true. We have available about 500 gigatons of carbon until the Temperature Anomaly increases 2 degrees. Apart from the fact that if the Temperature Anomaly incresead of 2 degrees it would be out of the Historical margins of the Earth and that for this reason it could already be dangerous, it's simple: mankind has to cut CO2 emissions in order not to overtake the threshold of 500 gigatons.
 
Updated the first post with the entire movie now. I just watched this again and I love this video, it gets me pumped up every time. Amazingly, it has news clips saying 2012 is the hottest year we've ever had, two years later....even hotter.......
 
ok it works now.

- - - Updated - - -

I am looking at the movie and the more I listen to the video the more I get the idea that the only way to get out of this CO2 nightmare is to sequester CO2 from the atmosphere. In fact we can decrease CO2 emissions as much as we want, but we will never manage to lower CO2 concentration in the atmosphere also considering the huge time needed from CO2 in the atmosphere to be absorbed by the Earth (one century).

This was already my opinion before of looking at the video.
 
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The problem is the way math is taught. There are interesting ways to teach it, and there are ways that just make it hard and boring. Unfortunately, schools tend to use the latter, although I've had a few math teachers that really made it come alive.