Articles/megaposts by sleepyhead

Index of sleepyhead's articlts

This wiki-post is to track sleepyhead's articles via hyperlinks to other so-called "megaposts":

Q3 Earnings Preview - 11/4/2013

Thanks Sleepy.

FYI that Solar pun was a thing of beauty.

@sleepyhead:

You have "23.4% gross margin including all credit sales" for FY13. That's impossible.

Q1 and Q2 margins were far below the 23% level. For Q3 and Q4 to bring the annual average margin up to 23%, they would have to feature margin of over 30% (ballpark figures).

In any case, it was clear in the Q2 earning call that the goal was to achieve 25% margin in Q4, not to realize FY13 25% margin overall by Q4 end.

Thank you once again, sleepy.

sleepyhead said:

23.4% gross margin for FY13 includes ZEV credits. There is no error in my estimates in this case.

Click to expand...

Hey Sleepy, the formatting of the page is screwed up (at least on Chrome).
I know the site was having issues with certain browsers before, I just wanted to let you know so you can fix it if you have access to the web server.

hershey101 said:

Hey Sleepy, the formatting of the page is screwed up (at least on Chrome).
I know the site was having issues with certain browsers before, I just wanted to let you know so you can fix it if you have access to the web server.

Click to expand...

At least on Safari it looked fine

Thanks for your comprehensive model and contributions

hershey101 said:

Hey Sleepy, the formatting of the page is screwed up (at least on Chrome).
I know the site was having issues with certain browsers before, I just wanted to let you know so you can fix it if you have access to the web server.

Click to expand...

Looks fine to me on Chrome.

sleepyhead said:

Thanks for the heads up. I never had issues on my Nexus 10 before. We will look into it.

In the mean time what do you all think about my estimates?

I think that eps of 0.30 is a good starting point and it can go +/- 0.10 in either direction.

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I think it's a very fair estimate. Not too far off from Wall St. Whisper numbers. The big question is the ZEV credits (because nobody knows the distribution of the Euro cars) and how much the price increases helped on the % margin. Thanks for pulling together the in depth analysis. I've been wanting to do this but other obligations have been keeping me. The range also seems very fair as well-- depending on the amount of deliveries.

Thanks, Sleepy. Great stuff. Three questions.

1. Your models are forecasting significantly higher EPS than the highest consensus estimates, per your notes at tcinvestor . Based on past quarterly beats by TSLA, if the Q3 numbers come in near your numbers, what would that mean for analyst consensus estimates for 2014 and 2015?

2. In the Stanford video, I think Elon was quoted as being inclined to keep lid on short term earnings growth in favor of increased investment. If EPS comes in where you forecast, might Tesla be inclined to ramp up investments to bring that down in coming quarters?

3. What impact from the fires, if any, are you forecasting for Q4?

thanks again.

Thanks for the post Sleepyhead.

I'm wondering how much of the increase in R&D will come from Gen III? There's got to be a few teams of engineers working on it now, and I would think with the big cash stockpile raised from the secondary that their may be less resistance to be extremely conservative in getting Gen III going as long as they don't make it look like they are vaporizing cash. Just my thoughts.

sleepyhead said:

Thanks for the heads up. I never had issues on my Nexus 10 before. We will look into it.

In the mean time what do you all think about my estimates?

I think that eps of 0.30 is a good starting point and it can go +/- 0.10 in either direction.

Click to expand...

I came up with ~0.21 with slightly lower production rate and lower ASP... I think I was being a bit too conservative though.
The absolute bottom I see is $0.17. I don't see any way they could have a lower number than that... That being said, in order for us to see ATH or anything that can be considered a good move on the upside, I think we need an EPS of $0.25 with increasing this years guidance and next year's guidance.
I think that they are definitely going to increase this year's guidance to about 21,500 cars and then actually end up delivering around 22,200... The bigger boost would be from increased GM ex zev. credits. But I think they will maintain this at 25% and end up doing 27%+ for next quarter.
I'm looking for a 41K guidance for FY14. I think this is reasonable to expect, and that leaves them plenty of room to increase guidance as the year goes on. In reality I expect them to deliver 50K+ next year. This is going to be the big one. Anything that shows less than 100% YoY growth will not be looked upon well by the street and this will be the make or break for the quarter.

Lets hope some of the smarter analysts read this forums and figure out the correct questions to ask during the Q&A.

Formatting's messed up on Firefox as well. One paragraph plotting on top of another.

Quick screen grab snippet:

MikeC said:

Looks fine to me on Chrome.

Click to expand...

Okay then it might just be me... Chrome tends to act weird on Linux with SSDs... It looks fine for me on Firefox but on Chrome the GM and Supply constraint paragraphs are on top of each other...

Looks like brainstorms beat me to it
I'm seeing the same thing on Chrome, but its fine on Firefox...
Are you on a Linux distro. brainstroms?

brianstorms said:

Formatting's messed up on Firefox as well. One paragraph plotting on top of another.

Quick screen grab snippet:

Click to expand...

thank you, this should be fixed now

Borris said:

thank you, this should be fixed now

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Yep... Awesome thanks