Peak Oil

[VolkerP]

I want to add a point to Roberts post which I think is critical. There is a time delay between rising prices and reserves being brought into production.

Example: Some $70/b reserves start being explored when oil prices stay above $80/b for some 3 months. Exploration takes 9 months (just an example, remember?). So oil is above $80/b for 12 months before production rates are added.

I would expect that oil prices rise in that year. If they pass a certain level, demand will collapse due to economic turmoil that they cause. Prices will follow to decline. Shai Agassi calls the result a "whiplash curve", taking out the economy. See his TED talk at 10:35.

No, I really don't want to be in the shoes of those that have to decide when to start explore new reserves and at what price.

[Doug_G]

Why would BP be hostile to Peak Oil? The idea of Peak Oil (true or not) adds a premium to the price of oil which is free money for BP.

Probably because they want us to ignore the threat, so they can make a killing when the oil prices spike to the moon. Oh, and drive the world economy into recession.

[Vger]

Yes, the point is that after the peak, demand exceeds supply (assuming a continuous increase in demand), and the price rises inexorably. However, because of the delays mentioned above, there tends to be wild swings in price on its way up. We have already seen this. The price becomes very volatile, but each new peak price is higher. The only way out of that trap is to decrease demand, by turning elsewhere for energy. The only way to not run out of oil, is to make it obsolete and leave the dregs in the ground, forgotten.

[brianman]

The only way to not run out of oil, is to make it obsolete and leave the dregs in the ground, forgotten.

Or find another planet to extract it from.

[dpeilow]

I came across this from a right wing UK newspaper yesterday, which is currently running a campaign against wind power. Dont know how true or not the predictions are. Maybe its partly political cynicism and partly wishful thinking.

We face a worldwide glut of oil, with profound economic and geopolitical implications, most of them good Telegraph Blogs

That's the same link that I posted up thread which restarted the discussion. It's a biased analysis of a biased analysis by a peak oil denier (how can you be one of those anyway, the planet isn't infinite?) paid for by an oil company. The Telegraph is the mouthpiece of the more undesirable parts of the Tory party and has been ramping up the rhetoric as that part - which seems to include the Chancellor - have been progressively scuppering anything related to renewables. I think they all need to declare interests and affiliatons.

[EVNow]

Any of these "peak oil" or "running out of oil" (or any other commodity) are flawed for a simple reason: there is almost always more oil (or whatever) at a higher cost of extraction.

I suggest a reading of Jeff Rubin's "Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller: Oil and the End of Globalization" to get a better understanding of the peak of rate of production of oil and its implications.

Jeff Rubin | Author | Economist | Speaker

[richkae]

Probably because they want us to ignore the threat, so they can make a killing when the oil prices spike to the moon. Oh, and drive the world economy into recession.

They don't want to cause a recession. The parasite will die if it kills the host. They want us as healthy as possible so they can keep sucking blood.

The big question is - if we have a path available to shed the parasite - how much injury will they inflict to stop us.

[richkae]

I suggest a reading of Jeff Rubin's "Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller: Oil and the End of Globalization" to get a better understanding of the peak of rate of production of oil and its implications.

Jeff Rubin | Author | Economist | Speaker

Seconded

[dpeilow]

That's the same link that I posted up thread which restarted the discussion. It's a biased analysis of a biased analysis by a peak oil denier (how can you be one of those anyway, the planet isn't infinite?) paid for by an oil company. The Telegraph is the mouthpiece of the more undesirable parts of the Tory party and has been ramping up the rhetoric as that part - which seems to include the Chancellor - have been progressively scuppering anything related to renewables. I think they all need to declare interests and affiliatons.

Well that didn't take long.

Osborne accused over gas lobbyist father-in-law - UK Politics - UK - The Independent

[jcstp]

Saudi Arabia Uses Your Gas Dollars To Fund...Solar Energy

Saudi Arabia preparing itself?