Expectations are too high and the valuation is just massively overblown.
The Q2 number is not really important. The outlook is more relevant and there I see clear evidence that Tesla will not be able to sell close to 5000 cars a quarter.
Right now Tesla is selling cars at a pretty insane pace which is unlikely to be sustainable since the Model S is a very high priced car. In countries without TAX incentive the demand is close to zero. In Germany the current reservation number is still in the 3 single digits. I don’t believe the demand for the Model S will be higher than a 100 cars a month. In the Netherlands Tax incentives will run out by the end of this year, therefore demand will collapse in 2014. Apart from Norway, which is not in the EU, no other European country is planning a serious tax incentive on EV cars.
If you take a look at the time between ordering and delivery it has come down to 2-4 weeks. That tells me that Tesla is already not producing at maximum capacity and that demand in the US has already peaked. That is not really surprising since the Model S is very expensive (even with the Tax rebate) and it only applies to a limited audience as it’s range is very limited.
Tesla will have a hard time to make money at all within the next 24 months or even in the distant future. New stock and debt offerings are a safe bet.
The Q2 number is not really important. The outlook is more relevant and there I see clear evidence that Tesla will not be able to sell close to 5000 cars a quarter.
Right now Tesla is selling cars at a pretty insane pace which is unlikely to be sustainable since the Model S is a very high priced car. In countries without TAX incentive the demand is close to zero. In Germany the current reservation number is still in the 3 single digits. I don’t believe the demand for the Model S will be higher than a 100 cars a month. In the Netherlands Tax incentives will run out by the end of this year, therefore demand will collapse in 2014. Apart from Norway, which is not in the EU, no other European country is planning a serious tax incentive on EV cars.
If you take a look at the time between ordering and delivery it has come down to 2-4 weeks. That tells me that Tesla is already not producing at maximum capacity and that demand in the US has already peaked. That is not really surprising since the Model S is very expensive (even with the Tax rebate) and it only applies to a limited audience as it’s range is very limited.
Tesla will have a hard time to make money at all within the next 24 months or even in the distant future. New stock and debt offerings are a safe bet.
