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Thread: Model X Timeline - From Prototype to Production

  1. #121
    Sig X#1100 and X#1618 Discoducky's Avatar
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    Highly doubt the X will need a new line for technical or engineering reasons other than 'we are making too damn many S's' or another way to say it is 'we've gone to Plaid, we can't slow down!!!'. So logistically, it might be an issue, but I'd bet they will run the line hot until the demand is satiated in EU and Japan then take over parts of the line as needed to make X parts and iterate. The robots can switch duties on a dime, switch out heads and do very different tasks so I don't expect they would take a throughput hit to iterating on X during S production to a large extent.

    One reason that I see an AWD (aka front motor S) due out prior to showing the Beta X is that they will want to get a good understanding of how the new AWD assembly is implemented. Reason being is that with the Beta they will most likely start stating some technical details of the car beyond what has already been stated. These numbers won't be possible without a good working knowledge of how the AWD drive function will be implemented.

    One piece of the puzzle that is very different for X will be the assembly of the Falcon doors which will most likely require at least one more station (two robots), maybe not immediately, but to keep up throughput, and with all the space they have, to keep quality high, iterate quickly...yata yata, it just makes sense. I could see Beta X's all making it down the line without any defects and then spending days trying to get those doors working properly. At TESLIVE I had a chance to study the current design/implementation of those doors and it looks to be a daunting challenge to not only get them functioning properly, make them safe under all conditions, air bags, two different actuating windows and four hydraulic hinges, but thing has got to work well. Not like the current handles well either. These doors are going to weigh quite a bit (100+ lbs) and there won't be any forgiveness if one fails or misbehaves in any way, shape or form. They must be flawless.

    Some has said that the chassis might have different dimentions and this is most likely the case to establish an overall greater footprint, but I could see the X use the same chassis and still garner more space due to learnings with the current chassis and just moving the axels further forward and backwards to get that bigger footprint. TM knows they can pass the crash tests with the AWD (NOTE: They must already being doing this now to make the timelines) so they can take a bit of risk and push the envelope a bit. Not to mention the bigger tires gives them a bit more room on the Y-axis as well to improve upon cubic feet.

    Ok, now I'm rambling...
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  2. #122
    Senior Member AlMc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Discoducky View Post
    Highly doubt the X will need a new line for technical or engineering reasons other than 'we are making too damn many S's' or another way to say it is 'we've gone to Plaid, we can't slow down!!!'. So logistically, it might be an issue, but I'd bet they will run the line hot until the demand is satiated in EU and Japan then take over parts of the line as needed to make X parts and iterate. The robots can switch duties on a dime, switch out heads and do very different tasks so I don't expect they would take a throughput hit to iterating on X during S production to a large extent.

    One reason that I see an AWD (aka front motor S) due out prior to showing the Beta X is that they will want to get a good understanding of how the new AWD assembly is implemented. Reason being is that with the Beta they will most likely start stating some technical details of the car beyond what has already been stated. These numbers won't be possible without a good working knowledge of how the AWD drive function will be implemented.

    One piece of the puzzle that is very different for X will be the assembly of the Falcon doors which will most likely require at least one more station (two robots), maybe not immediately, but to keep up throughput, and with all the space they have, to keep quality high, iterate quickly...yata yata, it just makes sense. I could see Beta X's all making it down the line without any defects and then spending days trying to get those doors working properly. At TESLIVE I had a chance to study the current design/implementation of those doors and it looks to be a daunting challenge to not only get them functioning properly, make them safe under all conditions, air bags, two different actuating windows and four hydraulic hinges, but thing has got to work well. Not like the current handles well either. These doors are going to weigh quite a bit (100+ lbs) and there won't be any forgiveness if one fails or misbehaves in any way, shape or form. They must be flawless.

    Some has said that the chassis might have different dimentions and this is most likely the case to establish an overall greater footprint, but I could see the X use the same chassis and still garner more space due to learnings with the current chassis and just moving the axels further forward and backwards to get that bigger footprint. TM knows they can pass the crash tests with the AWD (NOTE: They must already being doing this now to make the timelines) so they can take a bit of risk and push the envelope a bit. Not to mention the bigger tires gives them a bit more room on the Y-axis as well to improve upon cubic feet.

    Ok, now I'm rambling...
    No problem with rambling...I do it all the time. While I would like to see an AWD S before the X I doubt we will see it in production before production of the X. I would not be surprised if they have built a few AWD S vehicles but I believe the company has said too often that their stated goal runs: Roadster, S, then X on same platform, then an 'E' followed by an EX on that same smaller platform.
    Given where I live I would have preferred an AWD S over the RWD one I have. I think they may find several distressed S owners if they went with an S AWD before the X. I can see an AWD S being produced in 2015 after the initial reservations for the X are filled OR if TM finds that the market for the X was smaller (doubtful) than they expected.

  3. #123
    Model S: VIN P 3552 gg_got_a_tesla's Avatar
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    Model X Timeline - From Prototype to Production

    Yes, an AWD S ahead of the X launch may cannibalize some X sales. Don't think it's bad one way or the other for Tesla.

    But, when the AWD S does come out, I'm sure some early adopters of the S will trade in for that, whether the X is in the picture for them or not. This has happened a little with the P85+ S. All good for Tesla and for the secondary S market too.
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  4. #124
    Senior Member wycolo's Avatar
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    So much easier for TM to produce the AWD S as soon as they settle on a produceable kit. Get it out there into daily testing & driving by civilians. X customers will likely view this not so much as a delay but as a necessary reassuring confirmation of the AWD X viability.
    --

  5. #125
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    Quote Originally Posted by wycolo View Post
    So much easier for TM to produce the AWD S as soon as they settle on a produceable kit. Get it out there into daily testing & driving by civilians. X customers will likely view this not so much as a delay but as a necessary reassuring confirmation of the AWD X viability.
    --
    If Tesla finds they are still production constrained over the next 12 months, I think they would conclude there is very little upside to releasing an AWD MS prior to the MX launch. At best they will see increased demand for MS given the added feature, which would leave them even more production constrained. At worst the Model S demand increase will cannibalize much of the pent up MX reservation list, since many of those customers are looking for AWD specifically and that's why they are holding off on an order thus far.

    Why risk exposing your new product to the added uncertainty of reduced demand, in exchange for increasing demand for a proven product that already has too much demand to handle?

    edit: aaaand then i look one post up and find I am completely derivative. Sigh, nothing that can be said hasn't already! LOL
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  6. #126
    Senior Member wycolo's Avatar
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    Some need the X for the cargo, others settle for all that much car just to get the AWD. But an AWD MS is what they really need and want. By the time it happens they count on improved battery capacity to counteract the AWD energy surcharge. Remember, Subaru stayed small-bodied all thru their AWD development. There will be plenty of demand for RWD X cars.
    --

  7. #127
    Member Paul Carter's Avatar
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    From Nov 5's Third Quarter 2013 Shareholder Letter...

    We have also accelerated development work on Model X.
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  8. #128
    Member Paul Carter's Avatar
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    After hearing the CC so far, maybe by accelerate they meant its starting. "Full" production in Q2 2015 with a few in 2014. Looks like Bonnie will get a birthday present and perhaps I'll have a great 2014 boxing day?
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  9. #129
    Sig X#1100 and X#1618 Discoducky's Avatar
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    This time next year will be fun! But I'll be happy driving the S until the X arrives
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  10. #130
    Model S: VIN P 3552 gg_got_a_tesla's Avatar
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    I'm making a sales pitch to the husband of an ex-coworker - who's completely sold on Tesla courtesy yours truly - tomorrow regarding Tesla in general and the X in particular (to replace their aging SUV).

    Wish me luck! Hope the tally ticks over further soon.
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