When will the number of Model S on the road exceed Roadsters?

[dsmith2189]

Giving it more thought I'd say it already is the dominant vehicle on the road in the US.

Many of the 2400 were sold in Europe/Canada/Asia, and some are garage queens. With >1500 on the road already in the US it is likely the dominant vehicle already.

As of Dec 23rd, Model S will be the dominant Tesla on the road in Canada as well.

Ohhhhh you. Always there with the facts.

(+1, I'll bet you're right.)

A quick check of timdorr's delivery spreadsheet shows a max VIN of 2499.

[Vger]

Giving it more thought I'd say it already is the dominant vehicle on the road in the US.

Many of the 2400 were sold in Europe/Canada/Asia, and some are garage queens. With >1500 on the road already in the US it is likely the dominant vehicle already.

As of Dec 23rd, Model S will be the dominant Tesla on the road in Canada as well.

I think that is correct. There are only 47 Roadsters in Canada, so Model S's will dominate after the first day or two of delivery events in Toronto and Vancouver (supposed to be Dec. 20,21,22).

[Jaff]

I've been told 57 in Canada, but it's moot as the Model S will eclipse the Roadster totals in short order...

[ChrisC]

Will we have a month soon where the Model S "outsells" the Nissan Leaf or Chevy Volt? ~1600 might do it.

You bet. If it doesn't happen this month, January/Feb is a sure bet. (Especially since typical auto sales would lag in those months and Tesla will be pushing out cars at full speed).

I wouldn't be so sure. The Volt was selling at a 1700-2900 monthly rate until November's dip to 1500. Whether that's a trend or aberration (GM claims the latter of course) remains to be seen. But GM has been selling the Volt pretty reliably at 2000-3000 for about a year and that probably won't change much. Tesla might snipe a win one month, but until they get their production rate well over 20K/year it won't be a regular occurrence.

Oh, I forgot about the Leaf. Yeah, the Model S will stomp that Note that Leaf sales are picking up, and with widely anticipated improved price and range in the 2013 Leaf (to be announced any day now) those sales should pick up even more.

So you may be right, January will be the Model S's shot at glory!

Back on topic, I remember when we (in the Volt community) noted the moment that Volts on the road surpassed the Roadster. Similar to the Model S now, it was a couple months after the Dec 2010 launch.