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Thread: Delivery if I order MS # 2 ??

  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by sp4rk View Post
    This belongs in a marriage counseling forum, ...
    Model X for Madame X.

  2. #12
    Senior Member lolachampcar's Avatar
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    crap
    Freudian slip. Should have read upgrade FOR wife. OOOOOPS.

  3. #13
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    Why not keep the S and order an X?

    Quote Originally Posted by lolachampcar View Post
    Ok, I have a bone to pick with George.......

    I'm right in the middle of negotiating trading in my wife's and my car on a new 750. I've got to get rid of mine to make room for the incoming MS so why not trade both in (they are both BMWs) and upgrade my wife as well.

    NOW George has gone and single handedly (with the help of others I'm sure) answered a bunch of questions about extended warranty and batteries thereby removing great uncertainty from the product and almost guaranteeing a quality secondary market. I'm loosing my butt on my Zero after one year and, with these latest moves by Tesla, that just is not going to happen with the MS. (BTW, anyone want a 2012 9DS????) Sure there are questions like "can the second or third owner purchase the extended warranty, service and battery replacement options?" and "are the items transferable to future owners?". If Tesla stays on the same path, I suspect we will like the answers to those questions as well.

    The problem I have now is that I have to dump two BMWs to make room for two MS. There are those on the forum that are far more informed about deliveries, production rates and the like than I am. Can you please chime in and give me a best guess on where I might land if I sign up for MS #2 in the next week or so?

    Thanks!
    Model S 85kW, White/Black Leather/Lacewood/21 inch wheels/Tech/Air Suspension/Sound Studio Package/CF Spoiler/Parcel Shelf/Twin Chargers
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  4. #14
    Model S 2017 KBF's Avatar
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    dude, keep your DS. You only "lose" if you sell it, and it's totally functional for around town. I am keeping mine (same as yours) for my seasonal job 50 km commute (and it *is* more efficient than the Model S). The 2013 Zero's look like a great upgrade, but they're talking about upgrading again in 2014, too, and it's only going to get better (did you do the phone interview with their new CEO? Zero seems to be open to feedback - convince them to implement a buy-back program if you NEED to upgrade every year).

    Re: new Model S, we don't know timelines yet because I don't think their ramp-up is where they want it to be yet. My WAG is if you reserve before mid-December you'll wait around 9-10 months+. But I really don't know. You could always reserve and cancel later.

    Quote Originally Posted by lolachampcar View Post

    <snip> I'm loosing my butt on my Zero after one year and, with these latest moves by Tesla, that just is not going to happen with the MS. (BTW, anyone want a 2012 9DS????) Sure there are questions like "can the second or third owner purchase the extended warranty, service and battery replacement options?" and "are the items transferable to future owners?". If Tesla stays on the same path, I suspect we will like the answers to those questions as well.

    Thanks!

  5. #15
    Senior Member lolachampcar's Avatar
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    I've got 6K miles on my Zero since March and love it. Still plan to use it to get to the airport every day even with a MS in the garage. Regretfully, I just gotta have that 2013 DS. Sad but true.

  6. #16
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    OP-

    Be careful with your assumptions regarding all the new info stabilizing the secondary market. Personally I will only get the Model S on lease, the residual is an open ended question with few answers at the moment and I think people may take on more risk than they assume. Clearly this is a solid amazing car. However, BMW Merc and all other ICE cars usually don't go down much in the cost to produce. Hence a S Class won't cost Mercedes much less to produce in 3 years than it does today. That's NOT the case with Tesla. You'll get your car in Sept 2013 exactly 36 months prior to most manufacturers releasing their MY 2017 cars. By all indications battery density will improve 200% - 300% at least by then and KW cost will probably drop by 60%+. Smaller battery due to density increase means less weight and thus less power needed. The reduced power will be significantly cheaper. If Tesla were designing a Model S equivalent to debut in 2017 the cost to produce a top level 300 mile equivalent will probably drop by 40% (the lower range battery 40kw equivalent by at least 30%). So in 2017 Tesla can either keep their price artificially high (to support residual and increase margins) or cut the price substantially. The decision may not be in their hands as many other manufacturers will be producing electric cars and Tesla will have to be competitive on price. So what the depreciation will be on a car when the MSRP of comparative product is dropping fast is an unknown at this point. IMO, if a midsize electric with 300 mile range sells in 2017 for $50k - $60k (by Tesla or others), then a 3 year old version probably wouldn't be worth more than $35k - $40k. On a fully loaded MS, that's a 35% - 40% 3 year residual. I have no idea if any of the above will happen but I'm personally not willing to take on the risk - that's why lease only for me.

  7. #17
    Senior Member lolachampcar's Avatar
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    Omer,
    There are a lot of reasons I dislike forums. Posts like yours are the reason I enjoy them.

    I think you make some very good points. I suspect those that price the leases will be thinking very much the same thing. I look forward to hearing how the lease front shapes up. I do remember thinking I really should have leased that RS6 and left the residual issue to someone else.

    I guess we will all find out in the next 36 months or so.

  8. #18
    Petroleum is for sissies ChadS's Avatar
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    Omer, I agree that significant advancements in new EVs (if they come) could make current EVs lose a lot of value.

    But I don't think that gas cars will hold their value even if future gas cars cost as much to make as today's. I think capable, cheap EVs in the future would mean that new gas cars will sell poorly, and the value of used gas cars will drop even farther than the value of used EVs. The promise of better EVs in the future does cause uncertainty; I just want to be explicit that the uncertainty is for all cars, not just EVs.

    I know you didn't mean it this way (obviously, given that you are getting a Model S), but I want to make sure nobody takes your point to mean that they should put off buying an EV until some improvements are made. It's like trying to decide when to buy a computer: they are always getting cheaper and faster, but if you wait forever for the next model then you never get the benefits of owning one.
    Roadster #690; Model S #112; Model X Reserved Plug In America How to plan a road trip - how long will it take?


  9. #19
    Model S VIN P01536 Robert.Boston's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Omer View Post
    Personally I will only get the Model S on lease, the residual is an open ended question with few answers at the moment and I think people may take on more risk than they assume. ... I have no idea if any of the above will happen but I'm personally not willing to take on the risk - that's why lease only for me.
    While I can't disagree with your risk assessment, I think you err by implicitly assuming that the lease company will be blind to these risks, too. To the contrary, the lease company will likely be very skeptical about every facet of the Model S residual value: competitive from lower-cost new EVs (your point), whether Tesla will be around to provide service, whether anyone wants to own a used EV, whether gas prices have fallen, etc. A lease includes insurance against the residual value, but the premium for that insurance will be priced based on the risk of that residual value -- which is high.

    Personally, I think many of the risks that a rational lease company would price into the residual value are low. I firmly believe Tesla will survive or be acquired by a company that will fully assume the warranty obligations. I do not believe that gasoline prices will fall below $3/gal, but are more likely to rise markedly. Furthermore, I don't flip vehicles often, so I don't much care about residual values. These beliefs make me think that I am better able to bear the residual risk than the lease company. YMMV.

  10. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChadS View Post
    Omer, I agree that significant advancements in new EVs (if they come) could make current EVs lose a lot of value.

    But I don't think that gas cars will hold their value even if future gas cars cost as much to make as today's. I think capable, cheap EVs in the future would mean that new gas cars will sell poorly, and the value of used gas cars will drop even farther than the value of used EVs. The promise of better EVs in the future does cause uncertainty; I just want to be explicit that the uncertainty is for all cars, not just EVs.

    I know you didn't mean it this way (obviously, given that you are getting a Model S), but I want to make sure nobody takes your point to mean that they should put off buying an EV until some improvements are made. It's like trying to decide when to buy a computer: they are always getting cheaper and faster, but if you wait forever for the next model then you never get the benefits of owning one.
    You're right to some extent. The demand for gas cars will certainly drop as electrics become more competitive but the cost to produce doesn't. Hence, demand for say a 2017 Porsche 991 may be lower than today but the price probably won't be. It's almost binary, if there is not enough demand the manufacturer will stop making the car or make a lower cost car with different qualities. With EV's you can actually make the exact same car with even better attributes for significantly less money every year.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Robert.Boston View Post
    While I can't disagree with your risk assessment, I think you err by implicitly assuming that the lease company will be blind to these risks, too. To the contrary, the lease company will likely be very skeptical about every facet of the Model S residual value: competitive from lower-cost new EVs (your point), whether Tesla will be around to provide service, whether anyone wants to own a used EV, whether gas prices have fallen, etc. A lease includes insurance against the residual value, but the premium for that insurance will be priced based on the risk of that residual value -- which is high.

    Personally, I think many of the risks that a rational lease company would price into the residual value are low. I firmly believe Tesla will survive or be acquired by a company that will fully assume the warranty obligations. I do not believe that gasoline prices will fall below $3/gal, but are more likely to rise markedly. Furthermore, I don't flip vehicles often, so I don't much care about residual values. These beliefs make me think that I am better able to bear the residual risk than the lease company. YMMV.
    I don't think the lease companies will be blind to the risks. In fact I'm very curious how they price these cars. While I said I would only lease, I may not even do that depending on the announced lease prices. I'm waiting. Currently I have res# 13,064 and I plan on ordering another MS on the last possible minute 12/31. That way if I'm asked to finalize prior to the announced lease rates, I'll cancel the earlier reservation and keep the later one. I expect the lease rates to be somewhat competitive and reasonable due to the $7500 credit. It essentially lowers the payment by $220/month on a 36 month lease.

    For people that don't intend to flip and plan on using their car for 6-8 years, the whole discussion is moot; it's like unrealized losses/gains - meaningless until you sell. I've never owned a car for more than 3 years (severe ADD).

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