Official: Replacement Battery Option

[NigelM]

A few questions came to mind when I read about the replacement option:

1) Do I have to purchase this now? In other words, am I basically buying an insurance policy or can I simply buy a new battery after 8 years.
2) Does this allow me to upgrade my battery? If I buy a 60 now, can I buy an 85 later for only 12k?

1) It's insurance. You can also self-insure and buy a battery later.
2) Upgrading is an unknown right now. The battery cost latter will almost certainly be more than $12k.

[kendallpb]

BTW I'm wondering if incompatibilities in technology will mean that we'd be stuck with replacing a pack with (a) the same type, or (b) one of the currently-available options. Nothing in GB's post implies that there would be different options in the future.

- - - Updated - - -

P.S. I mean, nothing implies any future options would be compatible (or that there would be different ones, but I'm willing the presume the latter).

[brianman]

I have lots of questions on this and the other post. They fit into basically two categories: (1) if I pay the $12k for the 85 kWh will I have the option to "supersize" to a larger one if Tesla tech advances in 8 years and (2) on warranty and servicing I'd like to see an example of damage/repair scenarios and which are covered at which price point over the 8 years. I'll probably fire off a mail to my Tesla contacts in a week or two since they're pretty busy with deliveries right now.

[PRJIM]

It looks like a good deal to me. Remember the $40k Tesla was reportedly going to charge a certain infamous roadster owner for battery replacement last summer; this is basically 1/4 the cost for a bigger battery. If you buy the battery size for your needs now as Tesla strongly recommends, my back of the napkin calculations show the savings in gas more than cover the new battery cost. Of course it would be great if each battery size could be upgraded to a larger size, however buying the size you need now = peace of mind for me.

If Tesla determines that a battery failed due to user neglect, then this pre-purchased battery replacement program cannot be used for a replacement battery. 20% of that 40k figure was due to the labor involved in replacing the Roadster battery.

[rogbmw]

If Tesla determines that a battery failed due to user neglect, then this pre-purchased battery replacement program cannot be used for a replacement battery. 20% of that 40k figure was due to the labor involved in replacing the Roadster battery.

But - Tesla in fact emphasizes that replacement of a Model S battery is much easier than that on a roadster.

[Chas F]

Its about $3,300 based on 5% compound return after tax.

I think that much more important is the price of Lithium over the coming years. As demand increased during the past 20 years so prices have increased. If you assume that more EVs will mean more Lithium batteries then global demand will increase much further and basic economics says that prices will increase. Of course, that doesn't factor in any new battery technology that may come emerge.

I didn't include tax considerations. Good point. Still, $15K should be considered your base cost.

You are assuming the current implementation of lithium will continue for the next 8 years. There are already newer technologies being explored that are said to be much lower cost. Elon has also hinted at moving to an Ultracapacitor solution or some hybrid. The point is 8 years is a long time and battery technology will not stand still, driven mostly by the increased demand you alluded to.

Update: I do see now that you did caveat your assumptions. Even so, I think i'll stick my $ in an indexed mutual fund and take my chances in 8 years.

[FlasherZ]

I didn't include tax considerations. Good point. Still, $15K should be considered your base cost.

You are assuming the current implementation of lithium will continue for the next 8 years. There are already newer technologies being explored that are said to be much lower cost. Elon has also hinted at moving to an Ultracapacitor solution or some hybrid. The point is 8 years is a long time and battery technology will not stand still, driven mostly by the increased demand you alluded to.

Might start out off-topic, but stick with me. I was one of the first customers of BFG video cards, the company that warranted their video cards for life. 6 years after purchasing my first one, it failed, and I had to send it in to BFG for replacement. They did not send me a like-for-like replacement; rather, they sent me a refurbished version of the lowest-tier card they currently had for sale.

Given that batteries don't like to sit on shelves all that well, I would imagine the battery replacement program would have to be a bit more than Tesla just storing a bunch of today's cells and using them in 8 years to make you an identical replacement pack. When I saw the replacement program this morning, I was ready to sign up, even if it meant in 8 years I replace the battery pack and then immediately sell the vehicle (because I imagine a brand spankin' new battery pack on this car will be worth far more than $12k).

[brianman]

Might start out off-topic, but stick with me. I was one of the first customers of BFG video cards, the company that warranted their video cards for life. 6 years after purchasing my first one, it failed, and I had to send it in to BFG for replacement. They did not send me a like-for-like replacement; rather, they sent me a refurbished version of the lowest-tier card they currently had for sale.

The "going out of business" part kinda ruined that situation for my BFG replacement.

[bonnie1194]

Most Roadster owners opted NOT to buy the replacement option, using the same reasoning above. It's insurance. That's all. For $12K, I don't have to worry about it. Maybe it will be a good deal. Maybe there will be an upgrade option. Maybe it will be replaced with a better battery. Maybe none of that is true. But for $12k, I don't have to worry about it.

[efusco]

Most Roadster owners opted NOT to buy the replacement option, using the same reasoning above. It's insurance. That's all. For $12K, I don't have to worry about it. Maybe it will be a good deal. Maybe there will be an upgrade option. Maybe it will be replaced with a better battery. Maybe none of that is true. But for $12k, I don't have to worry about it.

Indeed there may be aftermarket options, salvage options and more than likely rebuild options by then. Lost count of the number of companies doing that for the Prius these days. That said, the prius is a MUCH bigger market. None the less, I can see those companies that are currently doing Prius expanding into the Tesla world as well.