Official: Replacement Battery Option

[Robert.Boston]

By reading the Tesla announcement of battery replacement option, I am not sure if they want customers to pay for this option now or later (sorry if someone already discussed this)?

Yes; you pay up front.

Is so, does the option payment refundable?

Unknown; probably not, though there might be some provision in case the car is totaled.

Is the replacement option the same as today's battery on Model S?

Unknown, but likely. Tesla will likely be reconditioning packs. Even if they use some new technology (e.g. Lithium Air), they're under no obligation to give you a larger battery than what you're buying.

I have tough time seeing myself 8 years from now, buying today's technology.

Me, too; and another $12k is stretching my willingness to sink more cash. I'm a technology optimist, so I'll pass on the battery replacement option.

[bosgig]

Not to sound like a broken record, but I bet they'd get a lot more people's interest-free $12k if they built a technology upgrade path into the wording of the agreement.

[NigelM]

Word meanings posts went here: random-chitchat

[highedu]

Even forgetting about a potentially higher capacity battery, with battery capacity expected to grow 8%/annum I would expect the 85kwh battery in the current Model S to be much cheaper 8 years from now when factoring in the Time value of money incremental to the 12k

[VolkerP]

So I get it, the replacement option for a 60kWh pack is $10k and will get me a pack with 60kWh capacity in 8 years. Resembles an insurance.

I'll going to pull that option when my current pack no longer fulfills my range requirements. Since the distance between superchargers is around 165 miles, sometimes even more (see here: Tesla Supercharge Map estimator), that point would be reached when my pack cannot hold 165 miles in a standard charge, resp. 183 miles in a range charge. IOW the initial 208 mile range would be degraded to 88%.

Using 150 miles for supercharger distance, I get to 80% degradation, from where on my pack would make road trips with supercharging a pain.

My question to all of you now is: Why would I want to shell out $10k now, when I can by the 85kWh pack for an additional $8k? Even if it degrades to 70% in 8 years, it's still good for 166 miles standard range?

Any thoughts?

[aviators99]

So I get it, the replacement option for a 60kWh pack is $10k and will get me a pack with 60kWh capacity in 8 years. Resembles an insurance.

I'll going to pull that option when my current pack no longer fulfills my range requirements. Since the distance between superchargers is around 165 miles, sometimes even more (see here: Tesla Supercharge Map estimator), that point would be reached when my pack cannot hold 165 miles in a standard charge, resp. 183 miles in a range charge. IOW the initial 208 mile range would be degraded to 88%.

Using 150 miles for supercharger distance, I get to 80% degradation, from where on my pack would make road trips with supercharging a pain.

My question to all of you now is: Why would I want to shell out $10k now, when I can by the 85kWh pack for an additional $8k? Even if it degrades to 70% in 8 years, it's still good for 166 miles standard range?

Any thoughts?

Because it's like insurance. You have to do it now or never.

[jerry33]

Why would I want to shell out $10k now, when I can by the 85kWh pack for an additional $8k? Even if it degrades to 70% in 8 years, it's still good for 166 miles standard range?

Any thoughts?

1. $141 per kWh (which is what the $12,000 for the battery pack works out to if my math is correct) is way less expensive than a new pack, even considering the expected reduction in price (that is likely to happen but isn't guaranteed).

2. If Telsa does it like the Roadster, after ten years you get a battery and some money back.

3. Your financial situation may change in eight years (fixed income for example) and not having to pay for a new battery might be a real financial life-saver.

[Discoducky]

I'm not buying the replacement option for my 60kWh battery. I'm going to invest the 10K in TSLA.

Also, I believe that the $/kWh will be closer to $150 in 2021 so I don't believe it is a prudent investment.

[Brian H]

Volker makes a good, and different, point, though. An 85 battery now will get him 8 yrs of superior performance and still at the end of that time will be equal or superior to a new replacement 60 -- for $2,000 less!

[bosgig]

I understand from a very reliable source at the company that it is their intent to offer an upgrade to newer technology (i.e., better range) batteries when it comes time to replace our batteries. This is fantastic news in my opinion. I don't know how the battery replacement option will play into this. I suspect that the current BRO ($8/10/12k) will get you a "like new" equivalent of your current battery, and that the newer technology battery will be available for a premium. Theoretically you could pay a "double premium" and upgrade to the newer technology and upgrade the level of battery (e.g., low-end equivalent to mid-or high-end equivalent) although they may very well decide against making the upgrade choices that wide open. I also suspect that we will be able to purchase the newer technology battery outright, without the BRO, perhaps for a slight premium over what people who bought the BRO paid given the time value of money. Whether I buy the BRO or not will likely depend on its exact wording. If it locks in the same capacity battery, I'll pass, even if I expect to be able to upgrade out of it to the newer technology when the time comes. All of these speculations aside, knowing that it's the company's intent to offer a newer technology battery is very reassuring!

I should also add, at the risk of stating the obvious, that just because this is the company's intent doesn't mean they'll actually wind up doing it. I'm sure there will be plenty of product roadmap, technology, and financial considerations that come up along the way that could make it a harder decision.