Finkenbusch

The paradigm change from petrol driven to electric motorized car will topple whole industries - about 10 % of US one at least - no more exhaust fitters, service stations, motor suppliers, gear box makers, transmission metallurgist and yes - traditional battery producers and their megachains will go the way of the gaslight - besides the wars (and mercenaries in the duty of the good force) over petrol, their perpetrators and many winners and the whole rat tail they drag after them - the list is as long as the debtors of Enron.

9/10 of US congress (and not just there) will have to make place for a new world - I hope Obama will help this development - at least not hinder

There will 90 % of todays car parts and parts producer, suppliers, subcontractors, dealer close doors and go the way of the Edsel - there are no more then 10 % of parts in a ev car compared to a conventional car

That is simply not the fact - very often the commercial successful is the only one remembered and the true inventor forgotten.

WarpedOne

Your view is way to simplistic. There will be no revolution, businesses will adapt. Sure some companies will disappear, but new will appear. It is happening all the time already.

It will take at least 10 years until gas powered cars start to loose primacy in the market and still there will be nich markets where gas vehicles will be better suited then battery powered ones (long range trucks, ...).

The world is way more complex than we tend to belive.

__________________
Tesla Motors Club FAQ
Because, You've got questions!

Finkenbusch

How true.
Most tectonical shifts in history are not announced in Newsweek or on Fox in advance.

Guess - slow evolution and market adaptation often cannot easily cope in speed.

As soon as Iran is hit by the first missile, the street of Hormuz, controlling the better part of all worldwide available crude oil (17 million barrel/daily), will be mined and be closed for shipping within minutes.
The barrel will hit 500$ initial and then rise to 1.000$.

What do you need then more?
medicine (made out of oil) or a trip with a gas driven car to your Wal Mart.

More.

Some industries go and some come when products change - true.

If all drive e cars and they have 90% less (mechanical) technical parts then a petrol car then (logically) 90% of interior content marches with the producers the way of the Studebaker.

10% new come on board 90% leave - probably

Furthermore a elecric car need to be serviced (if ever) all 30.000 miles,
simply when he stops running (or not bcs the brakes are dead) or the tires are flat.

Why a regular inspection when nothing is to be inspected today crammed under every cars hood?
So most of the nowadays garage repairs-hops can install a pizza oven.

Thats at the end of the food chain good for the vendors of pizza ovens - your right :-)

vfx

"It's like expecting existing gas stations to survive by serving only exotic sports cars."

Indeed that may be their future.


Many Eco activists insist to EV makers to build 100 mile cars. They say that," I don't need any more for my car (or second car)."

Martin says a 500 mile car is the answer. It's pretty much as far as you can (should) drive in a day on a road trip.

I suspect both are right -at least until the cost for producing them becomes similar enough that all cars go big on miles per charge.

__________________
.
.
.
.
.
.
The world loves to be deceived.

malcolm

Ah now I understand your confusion.

Even if we take a 380 Volt supply at 200 Amps(?) that only gives 76kW. The Tesla's battery stores 53kWh so even if you could make one from Altairnanos this power supply could only charge it in 53/76 = 0.7 hrs (or about 42 minutes). A more powerful supply would be a) more dangerous to use - especially in the wet and b) more costly to use.

Fine for the Germans - assuming that their 380 Volt supplies have 200 Amp hours of spare capacity and that Altairnano EVER get around to marketing their technology at affordable prices (Sadly - there seems little progress).

The problem with higher power density batteries is that they suffer from reduced energy density so that range is reduced. Fine for a REEV - but then there's even less point to ultra-fast recharge since that is what the on-board ICE-powered generator is for.

Cobos

Finkenbusch: Your math also has a critical flaw. Yes the pizza place has a 400V hookup with a decent amperage to back it up. And the reason it has that is because it's USING that hookup for it's pizza ovens which is sort of essential if you are in business of selling pizzas.

The only place with plenty of extra power for fastcharging which is available most of the time is concert venues as their lighting systems pull insane amounts of power and are rarely used during daytime. The other technical problem is that most of these installations are indoor installation not meant to deal with water/rain. Keep in mind the rule of thumb is for every 1000V you get power will arc about 1cm of air.

As malcolm mentioned the problem with fastcharging is that it's a market with NO growth potential for as soon as batteries are good enough you don't need them any longer. At the same time it needs a critical mass of number of EVs on the road which is also a matter of time. What there might be a market for is something around PBP's business plan. Slowish charging available mostly everywhere, with 230V - 400V with 10-40A which is faster than home charging and an option for those without their own garages. For a fee per month or per use this might be something which is economically viable with or without the battery lease thrown into this...

Cobos

Finkenbusch

Not only pizza baker and noodle shops - you overlook that every petrol station pumps petrol with the help of a motor using 380V hookup, washes your car, every elevator and public garage doors, metros and escalator are using it, as well as many streetlights and lightning for public and parking places could not run without high voltage outside on many places use high voltage.

High voltage in public places is for good safety reasons mostly hidden from open view.

Look for the many warning signs on the street
and you shall see... :-)

I still stay by my opinion that Dior or Hermes shop will draw the proper folks - the one who can afford a Tesla - if a free reload is offered.
A elegant filter to avoid window shoppers' :-)

And with (hopefully soon) many other EV vendors coming to the market also the Wal-Mart folks will finally enjoy a hookup for a few pence.

Thats how capitalism works at its best... :-)

Cobos

There's no doubt that for high-end stores that want a green cred having quick charging stations might draw customers. But at the same time putting up 220V outlets costs a fraction of the price and might give just as much customers. After all people usually only drive a few tens of miles to a Dior shop. They only need to recharge a bit.

My point was that all these places that already have high voltage hookup don't have any available capacity. Thus you have to pull another cable for the quickcharger and then you might as well put it somewhere else. A slow-charger on the other hand might be possible with the power currently available at the location.

Cobos

Finkenbusch

Basically I agree - but you make one minor mistake.

Speaking from Europe.
380 Volt 3 phases is available everywhere (until your house) - from the three phases the high power 380V connection runs only 2 are taken of and they make the 220 Volt two phases for a household in Europe.

In the US I believe 110 Volt is the standard - that has to be transformed to 110V.

Thats what you find in your kitchen and garage.

So no "new" capable installation is necessary, the installation is here already.

Capacity may be indeed become a problem in summer when the folks run air-condition but in general EV evolution (to every Wal-Mart) will take its course.

doug

Blighty's electro-supercar 2.0 uncloaked today | The Register