But it’s interesting to consider it in the context of what Spain is doing. They’re planning to spend $150 billion over the course of 15 years (they’ve spent close to $30 billion already) building out a first-class high speed network knitting together the entire country. The plan is that pretty much everyone would be within 30 miles of a station.
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Their GDP is about $1.4 trillion, a tenth that of the US.
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But nobody is clamoring for an HSR link between Fargo and Boise. So what if we built a Spanish-caliber network just in the Eastern US and California? Together, these states have an area of about 1 million square miles, a $10 trillion economy, and a population of 207 million at a density almost exactly the same as Spain’s.
A very rough estimate then (again, just scaling out the example of Spain) would be $800 billion. Which would actually constitute it a smaller percentage of GDP than Spain is ponying up.
For those who may not know, the Japanese are the originators of modern HSR and Mr. Kasai’s company is the world’s most experienced HSR operator. The CJR’s Tokaido Shinkansen, or “bullet train,” that runs between Tokyo and Osaka is not only the world’s oldest high speed rail line, but also the busiest, carrying over 150 million passengers per year. In operation since 1964, the 317-mile Tokaido line now operates 309 trains per day with sustained cruising speeds of 168 mph (270 km/h), which enables passengers to make the trip in a reliable two hours and 25 minutes. During peak travel periods, twelve 1,323-seat trains leave Tokyo each hour and average an on-time performance deviation of only 30 seconds.
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The Japanese pursued HSR for several logical reasons: limited available land forced a transportation policy that required minimal land use while providing maximum passenger throughput into cities, electric-powered transport reduced over-reliance on imported oil
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CJR, which is one of six rail operators in Japan, refutes Washington’s conventional wisdom that no passenger railroad in the world makes a profit. Each year, Mr. Kasai’s well run railroad earns just under a 10% rate of return.
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When asked why they were building this new line using maglev technology, Mr. Kasai explained that the CJR needed to be forward looking so that they can meet not only the needs of the present, but also the future. In spite of the fact that 80% of this new line will be in tunnels, Mr. Kasai explained that maglev is still the most cost effective technology for this extremely mountainous route. He should know, because the for-profit CJR is funding this entire line without Japanese government participation.
Ah, Kyoto station... vertigo and awe-inspiring design.
We also got to ride on the demo MagLev / LIM line to the World's Fair in '06, in addition to the shinkansen ride. Japan definitely knows how to do "rail" transit. We need to take heed.
I think the recent NY Times and Washington Post editorials calling HSR a waste must be from people who've never really experienced trains. We should send them over to France or Japan or Spain to have a careful look.
One of the arguments so often presented is that the U.S. population density is too low to support high speed rail. Yet, some people in Britain have argued that their density is too high to support HSR. Maybe the only "correct" way to see density is to examine the dense brains making the argument.
I've taken that JR shinkasen line between Tokyo and Osaka...
Isn't it Shinkansen?
I rode it too and was expecting more outrageous acceleration but found that it is just smooth / continuous that just keeps on building and building. When I heard them called "bullet trains" I was expecting slam you in your seat roller-coaster acceleration, but it is more like... Hmm... This isn't accelerating that quickly... OK we seem to be going well over 100MPH now I guess it is about to stop accelerating... Wait, it is still accelerating... And wait, there is still more... It doesn't accelerate like a sports car, but it sure handles like it is on rails!
I was expecting slam you in your seat roller-coaster acceleration, ...
Same with bungy jumping. People think you get a jolt at the bottom but it's such a slow and gradual slowdown that at the bottom you could pick up a golf ball or glass of water.
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