GEN III - When will we see the first prototype [Archive] - Tesla Motors Club

gjunky

06-01-2012, 05:34 PM

Now that the Model S deliveries are around the corner and the Model X has been shown at different places my question is: When will the first prototype of the GEN III car be shown?

I know there have been some prior discussion on the priorities of not only the next car after the Model X but also about the "$30K" car. I have heard rumors about it possibly being shown at the end of this (2012) year and also that we might not see one until 2015 (that might have been an actual delivery estimate).

So: Has anyone seen any more information / rumors about this?
Any details from statements Elon has made in interviews?

jerry33

06-01-2012, 05:49 PM

The Model X was shown shortly before the Model S production started. I would expect Bluestar to be shown shortly before the Model X production. Tesla has said they want to introduce a new car every year. (A new Roadster is rumoured to be after the Bluestar). I don't see there being anything more than vague rumours until the unveiling--whenever that happens.

AnOutsider

06-01-2012, 07:41 PM

I posted this article before: Tesla 2016 Roadster - Tesla to build another sportscar | GoAuto (http://www.goauto.com.au/mellor/mellor.nsf/story2/DAD5C6D33F22425CCA257A00001E3522)

In it, it's stated:

“At the moment we’re concentrating on the Model S and Model X, of course, but in 12 months we will be ready to talk about the third model.

So, imagine this time next year. About 6 months before the X goes into production, just as the X was shown about 6 months prior to the S.

Grendal

06-01-2012, 07:42 PM

Actually, the original, but not officially stated, rumor was that the new roadster would come after the various Model S platform cars. It was at the Model X rollout that Elon mentioned that the Mass Market car on the Gen III platform was going to be the next car. He also mentioned a tentative date of 2015 for production. With all that in mind, I'd guess/predict that the legendary $30K/Mass Market/BlueStar prototype will be seen somewhere between late 2013 to mid 2014.

I'd also guess, and would not be surprised, to see one more variation on the Model S platform before the Mass Market car that comes out in 2014. That would keep the "one new design per year" promise while not compromising the BlueStar timetable. I also wouldn't be surprised by an updated Model S in 2014 since there were lots of updates to the Roadster in its life.

All these predictions are based on the fact that there are no disasters that create delays.

AnOutsider

06-01-2012, 09:15 PM

I'd also guess, and would not be surprised, to see one more variation on the Model S platform before the Mass Market car that comes out in 2014. That would keep the "one new design per year" promise while not compromising the BlueStar timetable.

Well, model S is late June 2012, model x is likely December 2013 (18 months). If we imagine even another 12-13 months for the next model after x, that actually pretty much puts us in 2015. I imagine they promised nominal X deliveries in 2013 because 2014 sounded so far away, but even they say significant deliveries are 2014.

Grendal

06-01-2012, 11:30 PM

Well, model S is late June 2012, model x is likely December 2013 (18 months). If we imagine even another 12-13 months for the next model after x, that actually pretty much puts us in 2015. I imagine they promised nominal X deliveries in 2013 because 2014 sounded so far away, but even they say significant deliveries are 2014.

Considering how much you've participated here, you probably have a really good feel for what will happen. It just occured to me that it wouldn't be too costly for a third S platform design. It would have to be a popular style to even bother to add to the Tesla stable of vehicles. A Model S convertible is the only thing that comes to mind that would be worth doing prior to the Mass Market car. Though I could easily see a Model S 1.5/2.0 counting as the 2014 car.

VolkerP

06-02-2012, 02:10 AM

I think the time span between Model S and X is much less than between X and Gen III. Because that's a new platform. They really start over from scratch, putting in everything they learned during development of Model S. Plus there is the goal to deviate a bit more from customers' expectations on what a "car" must look like and really explore the freedom that an electric drive train brings to vehicle design.
A prototype of that platform might be shown quite early because they must fixate the cornerstones of their design way ahead of production.
So let's say we gonna have

design sketches right now (that Tesla won't show us)
a clay model late in 2012
a design prototype mid of 2013 (like Model S pre-alpha prototype in 2009) shown to the public
driving prototypes for testing in 2014 (alpha and beta)
production in 2015

AnOutsider

06-02-2012, 05:01 AM

Considering how much you've participated here, you probably have a really good feel for what will happen. It just occured to me that it wouldn't be too costly for a third S platform design. It would have to be a popular style to even bother to add to the Tesla stable of vehicles. A Model S convertible is the only thing that comes to mind that would be worth doing prior to the Mass Market car. Though I could easily see a Model S 1.5/2.0 counting as the 2014 car.

Haha, don't mistake too much time spent here for some super insight, I'm just guessing. I could see a convertible coming out, but they would have to be working on it now, no? I would imagine something would have leaked by now.

I think the time span between Model S and X is much less than between X and Gen III. Because that's a new platform. They really start over from scratch, putting in everything they learned during development of Model S. Plus there is the goal to deviate a bit more from customers' expectations on what a "car" must look like and really explore the freedom that an electric drive train brings to vehicle design.
A prototype of that platform might be shown quite early because they must fixate the cornerstones of their design way ahead of production.
So let's say we gonna have

design sketches right now (that Tesla won't show us)
a clay model late in 2012
a design prototype mid of 2013 (like Model S pre-alpha prototype in 2009) shown to the public
driving prototypes for testing in 2014 (alpha and beta)
production in 2015

I wonder if they're beyond the sketches phase? I mean, we didn't hear about x until this time last year I think... At which point Elon said "it's ready" (meaning the design). I guess from there til December (first showing) they were perfecting the prototype?

The 30 k Modell must have a Range aboiut 350-400 miles.

Why must it? The only other EV in that segment right now has 73 miles, and I can't see it jumping that drastically in 2 years. Its a smaller car, and battery tech will be more advanced by then, but it's also a BUDGET car, so they won't exactly be shoving a crapload of batteries into a 30k car. I reckon they'll start with ~180-200 miles @ 30k and work their way up.

vfx

06-02-2012, 07:22 AM

Re: The possible between car after the X and before the GenIII.

While an S based platform seem ripe for a convertible, I was told Elon is well aware of the market for fleet vehicles. A Tesla take on the Ford Transit Connect or Dodge Sprinter van could also be the mid X/GenIII offering. Not sexy but eminently practical.

Since it's unglamorous maybe they announce both GenIII and the Model V at the same time. Very Elon to do something like that. He seems to like piggybacking publicity fervor.

richkae

06-02-2012, 07:35 AM

I hope that Tesla does not waste their time and resources on a convertible, They should be working towards bigger markets - not smaller.

NigelM

06-02-2012, 08:45 AM

As *Outsider* pointed out way up thread, Tesla has said there won't be any news about the next car until about this time next year. From other pronouncements I believe they have also left up in the air whether a new Roadster or the Gen III $30k car will come next. It's possible (likely?) that we won't hear anything on the Gen III for another 2 years.

AnOutsider

06-02-2012, 08:50 AM

That GEN III will be targeted at a larger customer base that will also be more price conscious. Based on feedback from others, it appears a base 250-300 "real world" range at the $30k price point is what the greater aggregate of that customer base will be looking for. Nissan was rumored to be looking at a 200-mile range on the next Leaf. A Tesla rep mentioned that TM is aware of all the battery reasearch underway. Perhaps when one of these advancements proves out, it will be used.

Didn't Elon also state that they realized they could do Gen 3 sooner than they had originally thought? Perhaps something did pan out

Doug_G

06-02-2012, 08:56 AM

I suspect that they already have a clay model, but we won't see anything for at least a year.

In order to differentiate themselves in the market, it needs to have a range of at least 2X a Leaf. That said, I fully expect them to have different pack sizes available, and the $30k version might not be all that compelling. I would not be surprised if the 200+ mile version were $40k. That said, if they could bring out a $30k 200 mile car I think it would be an enormous success...

jerry33

06-02-2012, 09:03 AM

Are clay models even made anymore. I know they used to be years ago but don't most do the "clay" models in software now?

AnOutsider

06-02-2012, 05:15 PM

Are clay models even made anymore. I know they used to be years ago but don't most do the "clay" models in software now?

The Model X had a clay model. It popped up in a few pictures and was at the reveal event in Hawthorne.

vfx

06-02-2012, 07:02 PM

The Model X had a clay model. It popped up in a few pictures and was at the reveal event in Hawthorne.

As did the S.

A coupla weeks after the X revel I had a guy approach me at a car show. He was on the X's clay team at the Design Center. He was toast. I asked if he was onto the next car but he was coy. Go the impression he would be doing things like the center consoul and parts like dash of the X. (but I just imagined that part)

Jaff

06-03-2012, 06:53 PM

Wasn't the clay model of the Roadster at Menlo Park?

I seem to remember seeing it when we visited the MP HQ at the October Model S event...

As did the S.

A coupla weeks after the X revel I had a guy approach me at a car show. He was on the X's clay team at the Design Center. He was toast. I asked if he was onto the next car but he was coy. Go the impression he would be doing things like the center consoul and parts like dash of the X. (but I just imagined that part)

vfx

06-03-2012, 07:07 PM

Wasn't the clay model of the Roadster at Menlo Park?

I seem to remember seeing it when we visited the MP HQ at the October Model S event...

Don't know where it lived but it was covered with silver and later destroyed.

All Teslas have been clay.

TEG

06-03-2012, 07:53 PM

Clay:

Roadster;
http://webarchive.teslamotors.com/display_data/bclaymodelwithrat.jpeg (http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/never-dull-moment)
tesla roadster clay model | Flickr - Photo Sharing! (http://www.flickr.com/photos/janetgalore/1803845171/)
Clay model | Flickr - Photo Sharing! (http://www.flickr.com/photos/rnair/393766369/)

S;
http://farm7.staticflickr.com/6051/6213460526_060ffa603d_z.jpg (http://www.flickr.com/photos/45698397@N00/6213460526/)
Tesla Model S Clay Model | Flickr - Photo Sharing! (http://www.flickr.com/photos/digitante/3389467100)
The two faced life of a clay model | Flickr - Photo Sharing! (http://www.flickr.com/photos/patrick_h/6210520302)

X;
http://theleadfoot.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/dsc00831.jpg?w=640

???;
http://img.tapatalk.com/5574cae0-7c18-5191.jpg (http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/7493-Mysterious-Clay-Model)

AnOutsider

06-03-2012, 08:10 PM

Thanks TEGbot. From that thread, here's a larger shot:

4058

I believe that video was on vimeo about this time last year, so if we saw Gen 3 this time next year, that would be at least 2 years after they began work on it. I'm not sure how that lines up with previous models.

VolkerP

06-04-2012, 12:14 AM

Great work as usual, TEG! Clay models have the big advantage that you can easily add charge ports. Anywhere, any number you want, any connector!

ElSupreme

06-04-2012, 06:34 AM

I hope that Tesla does not waste their time and resources on a convertible, They should be working towards bigger markets - not smaller.

No Tesla should be 100% focused on manufacturing, and quality control, if they can't get this right then all the models in the world won't help them. Once they ramp up their line, and work out all the gremlins they should work or more sales.

I personally think there may be 1 or 2 more 'S' platform cars before we see a production Gen III. The Gen III may be announced before, but a 'S' van, truck, or convertible (or even a true S wagon) would be much easier for Tesla to produce than a whole new car.

Grendal

06-04-2012, 09:26 AM

No Tesla should be 100% focused on manufacturing, and quality control, if they can't get this right then all the models in the world won't help them. Once they ramp up their line, and work out all the gremlins they should work or more sales.

You make a good point, but a design team is a design team. It's unlikely you can switch them to manufacturing. It's also unlikely you would let them go during a quiet time. So even though most of the company is focused on manufacturing and quality control, the design team should still be working hard on the next big project. The Gen III platform will be a lot more complex than just a smaller Model S platform. It will certainly be along those lines but you only have to look at how tight the Model S's pieces fit into its platform to realize that it will take a lot of work to effectively put all the same pieces into something much smaller.

I personally think there may be 1 or 2 more 'S' platform cars before we see a production Gen III. The Gen III may be announced before, but a 'S' van, truck, or convertible (or even a true S wagon) would be much easier for Tesla to produce than a whole new car.

I think there is a possibility of one more S type vehicle prior to the Bluestar for the reason you mentioned. Other S type vehicles will also likely appear but I'd expect them after the Bluestar unless Tesla gets some kind of pre-order.

Fredrik S

06-14-2012, 01:03 PM

I hope we don't see a prototype before they are sure to be able to deliver a GenIII with 300 miles of range at a $ 30 000 price. If it's going to be a massmarket car, well the customers won't accept less.

Mod Note: as this post sparked a line of discussion relating to costs and range, it has been copied to Gen III Range Pricing Speculation (http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/9194-Gen-III-Range-amp-Pricing-Speculation) while also being preserved here as it also touches on timeline.

favo

06-15-2012, 02:21 PM

I wonder if they'll tease us with any Gen III info at the 6/22 event.

jerry33

06-15-2012, 05:44 PM

but then those spending $80K for a Model S will be a little upset that a $30K car gets just as much range as they do... 10 years from now maybe...but 2 or 3 years later? No way.

I don't see why. I'd have to be a pretty dumb bunny to not realize that as soon as I purchase any technology product in two or three years it will either be much better and cheaper or way better and the same price. What I'm paying for is the ability to have it now. It's really no different that getting a Signature.

Doug_G

06-15-2012, 06:00 PM

I wonder if they'll tease us with any Gen III info at the 6/22 event.

Nah, they won't want to distract from the Model S launch story. Probably the Model X will be sitting there for those who want to look at it, but it won't be something they'll make a big deal about.

ElSupreme

06-18-2012, 07:29 AM

I suspect the same, but would imagine they might scale it down to maybe 14-15". Can't see them completely eliminating it -- especially since I doubt it's a very expensive component of the total package.

I 100% agree. In fact I bet the 'screen' will end up costing Tesla less than traditional dashboards sometime during their 3rd model. It is a lot easier to program buttons, knobs, and switches than to do them physically.

doug

07-04-2012, 08:45 AM

We already have a bluestar styling thread.

AnOutsider

07-06-2012, 02:54 PM

We already have a bluestar styling thread.

Indeed. I've taken a number of posts from this thread (got it from 12 pages to 3) and moved them to the relevant threads below. Some posts were copied as they were still somewhat relevant to this thread, or fit in more than one thread. Hopefully I did not miss anything or go too heavy handed -- it was a number of posts and got a bit unwieldy pushing to 3 different threads.

Posts moved to:

Gen3 4-door sedan styling ideas (http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/689-Gen3-quot-BlueStar-quot-4-door-sedan-styling-ideas)
Gen3 2-door coupe styling ideas (http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/566-Gen3-quot-BlueStar-quot-2-door-coupe-styling-ideas)
Gen III Range Pricing Speculation (http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/9194-Gen-III-Range-amp-Pricing-Speculation)

From here on out, let's try to keep this particular thread about the timeline for seeing the Gen III prototype.

grisnjam

07-06-2012, 06:37 PM

From here on out, let's try to keep this particular thread about the timeline for seeing the Gen III prototype.

My hope is they show an early gen3 late this year and deviler at the end of 2014 with volume in 2015.

Kevin Harney

07-06-2012, 08:12 PM

My hope is they show an early gen3 late this year and deviler at the end of 2014 with volume in 2015.

I think that is the general word from TM too.

AnOutsider

07-06-2012, 08:12 PM

I think that is the general word from TM too.

Is it? Last I heard it would be around Mayish 2013.

Citizen-T

07-06-2012, 09:22 PM

Is it? Last I heard it would be around Mayish 2013.

Curious, who/where did you hear that (from)?

AnOutsider

07-07-2012, 04:50 AM

Curious, who/where did you hear that (from)?

I may have posted it n this thread, not sure, but there was an article where someone, JB maybe?, was talking about Gen III and said they'd be ready to talk about/show that around this time next year" Article was a month or two back.

*edit* here's my post: http://www.TeslaMotorsClub.com/showpost.php?p=142649

Grendal

07-07-2012, 11:32 AM

JB maybe?, was talking about Gen III and said they'd be ready to talk about/show that around this time next year article was a month or two back.

I think the idea of a new design/platform prototype shown two years before production seems about right. At one year they show an alpha prototype and at six months they have a beta ride along event. For new designs based on an existing platform (like the X) a one year timetable makes sense.

Norbert

07-07-2012, 02:58 PM

I may have posted it n this thread, not sure, but there was an article where someone, JB maybe?, was talking about Gen III and said they'd be ready to talk about/show that around this time next year" Article was a month or two back.

*edit* here's my post: GEN III - When will we see the first prototype (http://www.TeslaMotorsClub.com/showpost.php?p=142649)

This is the quote from the article:

“We will have another sportscar, definitely,” he said.

“At the moment we’re concentrating on the Model S and Model X, of course, but in 12 months we will be ready to talk about the third model.

“Maybe it will be the sportscar, or maybe we’ll slip another model in before it, so it should be 2015 or 2016.”

Now I don't think the large-volume, more affordable Gen III (Bluestar) would be something that you just "slip in", as it requires large manufacturing installations. Perhaps he was thinking more about a convertible or so. I'd doubt that the same timeline (for showing a prototype) would automatically apply to the large-volume Gen III, even though Elon at some point this year said they are pulling it ahead to be the next car, as battery developments gave him the confidence to do so.

Kevin Harney

07-08-2012, 10:28 AM

This is the quote from the article:

Now I don't think the large-volume, more affordable Gen III (Bluestar) would be something that you just "slip in", as it requires large manufacturing installations. Perhaps he was thinking more about a convertible or so. I'd doubt that the same timeline (for showing a prototype) would automatically apply to the large-volume Gen III, even though Elon at some point this year said they are pulling it ahead to be the next car, as battery developments gave him the confidence to do so.

I think by "slip in" he meant that Gen3 might come before a new sports car or Roadster.

PhatCat

07-15-2012, 05:37 AM

I hope that Tesla does not waste their time and resources on a convertible, They should be working towards bigger markets - not smaller.

As a huge convertible fan who has had at least one for the last 16 years, I have to agree with this. The sales of two-seater drop-tops went off a cliff during the recession and have not come back.

Kevin Harney

07-15-2012, 09:17 AM

As a huge convertible fan who has had at least one for the last 16 years, I have to agree with this. The sales of two-seater drop-tops went off a cliff during the recession and have not come back.

Who said anything about a two-seater drop top ?!?!?! LOL I want a four seater Hard top :)

Grendal

07-16-2012, 12:29 PM

Who said anything about a two-seater drop top ?!?!?! LOL I want a four seater Hard top :)

A hard top makes more sense for aerodynamics and with the new skateboard design a four seater also makes the most sense for doing a convertible. Play to your strengths.

Vger

07-25-2012, 06:20 AM

I think the timing might depend more on the price curve of the battery and when they are sure they can get the needed manufacturing ecomonies of scale. Those economies also imply a market mature to accept 100k+ annual volumes. This Gen III car must come close to its dramatically lower price point to succeed. The timing of the feasibility of that accomplishment will be key.

vfx

07-25-2012, 07:55 AM

A hard top makes more sense for aerodynamics and with the new skateboard design a four seater also makes the most sense for doing a convertible. Play to your strengths.

There has to be a weight penalty for a retractable hardtop. Still though, the frunk makes for a magical combination of such a cool feature without compromise.

brianman

07-25-2012, 12:45 PM

There has to be a weight penalty for a retractable hardtop. Still though, the frunk makes for a magical combination of such a cool feature without compromise.
Has anybody made (or demo'd) a convertible roof that stows forward (frunk) rather than backwards?

Robert.Boston

07-25-2012, 03:26 PM

Has anybody made (or demo'd) a convertible roof that stows forward (frunk) rather than backwards?
Unlikely. (1) Most cars have their engine up there. (2) The front windscreen has to stay in place, while the rear windscreen should go away. Both reasons point to a rear-folding roof.

brianman

07-25-2012, 03:56 PM

Unlikely. (1) Most cars have their engine up there. (2) The front windscreen has to stay in place, while the rear windscreen should go away. Both reasons point to a rear-folding roof.
Good. Then it's an opportunity for Tesla to explore something new to the industry.

Kevin Harney

07-25-2012, 08:09 PM

I think the point of the post was to say fold the roof back AND still have a Frunk to use for storage.

vfx

07-25-2012, 08:57 PM

*We've got to get a better name for that*

(paraphrasing Elon in the recent conference call when talking about the Genlll)

Citizen-T

07-25-2012, 09:15 PM

*We've got to get a better name for that*

(paraphrasing Elon in the recent conference call when talking about the Genlll)

He said he is open to suggestions. I say we start a thread. Once we've got some good options a poll might be appropriate.

vfx

07-25-2012, 09:22 PM

He (Elon) also said he expects a huge drop in battery prices by then.

And in a recent interview hinted at some significant progress on the third car.

brianman

07-25-2012, 10:51 PM

I think the point of the post was to say fold the roof back AND still have a Frunk to use for storage.
In the original discussion sure, I was just thinking of different options uniquely available on the EV skateboard.

Kevin Harney

07-26-2012, 05:55 AM

VFX,

Do you have a source on the progress. I would like to read/hear it. Thanks.

WhiteKnight

07-26-2012, 07:04 AM

VolkerP

07-26-2012, 07:18 AM

I don't know price differences of electric motors. But driving two axles means double number of moving parts, double reduction gear & differential, double power electronics, and more complex control unit/TC/vehicle stability system. I doubt that you can recoup these costs with motor size.

JRP3

07-26-2012, 07:18 AM

Is it possible that two small electric motors would be less expensive - or the same price - as one large electric motor?I doubt it. Control is more complex, hence expensive, as is producing two units instead of one.

vfx

07-26-2012, 07:53 AM

I doubt it. Control is more complex, hence expensive, as is producing two units instead of one.

Agreed buy maybe the cost could be a small enough amount that it is a very reasonable option. Especially after the grunt work has all been done on the X.

Kevin, I pretty much spew everything I know on these pages.

Sometimes we are asked to not blog about something and I respect that.

On the BlueGenlll, info comes from published interviews and there is usually just one line about the "future car" and i dutifully stick it in here. This car is the one to watch for me.

The thing that got me most excited though, has no details. One engineer I talked with said that Elon's initial requests are pushing this car to be even more groundbreaking than the S. Got the impression there is nothing physical built. So probably just drawings and specs at this point.

Sadly I agree with comments like Vger's that no matter how much we want our Dragon now, the release timing has to match battery development and it's price drops. 2015, 2016?

Citizen-T

07-26-2012, 07:58 AM

Elon said on the call yesterday that he thinks battery prices will drop significantly with new chemistry in 3-4 years. So yeah, 2015 or 2016, assuming that the car and battery tech can happen in parallel.

VolkerP

07-26-2012, 08:57 AM

Yes, he correlated introduction of new battery chemistry with new car platform and pointed out the cost cuttings by using less Cobalt in the cells for Model S. Of course it would be possible to retrofit new cells in an older battery pack. But we're still waiting to see that happen with the Roadster.

WhiteKnight

07-26-2012, 10:25 AM

Agreed buy maybe the cost could be a small enough amount that it is a very reasonable option. Especially after the grunt work has all been done on the X.

Would two small motors allow you to re-capture more energy/power (sorry I don't know the proper term) through regenerative braking than a single large motor?

Could the range of an EV with two small motors be longer than the range of an EV with one large motor?

Yggdrasill

07-26-2012, 10:44 AM

Is it possible that two small electric motors would be less expensive - or the same price - as one large electric motor?

In other words could BlueStar be AWD by default because two 120hp equivalent motors are the same price as a single 240 hp equivalent motor?

You would never think this way about a conventional car but I wonder how things change when we're talking electric.The motor cost is probably related more to production numbers than size, at this point in time. But once production is sufficiently high for a given motor, in all probability it's cheaper with one big motor than two smaller motors.

So, it probably cheaper to buy 20,000 motors with 100 kW than 19,400 motors with 100 kW and 300 motors with 200 kW. But cheaper still to buy 10,000 motors with 200 kW than 20,000 motors with 100 kW.

Development costs for a 100 kW and 200 kW motor will be largely the same. Production time will be largely the same. Administration, shipping, etc will be largely the same. The biggest difference is material costs, and material cost simply isn't that big a part of the total cost.

In large scale production, the production cost might be something like $5000 for a 100 kW motor and $7500 for a 200 kW motor. The bigger motor has a lower cost per kW.

How this relates to Tesla depends on the market conditions. It's possible that it's cheaper with multiple indentical motors, but it's also possible that different sized motors are cheaper.

Yggdrasill

07-26-2012, 10:48 AM

Would two small motors allow you to re-capture more energy/power (sorry I don't know the proper term) through regenerative braking than a single large motor?Regnerative braking works best with all-wheel drive, followed by front-wheel drive and rear-wheel drive being the worst. But the difference isn't that big.

Could the range of an EV with two small motors be longer than the range of an EV with one large motor?Probably not. Drivetrain losses will be greater with AWD. The improved regenerative braking really only offsets some of the added drivetrain losses.

ElSupreme

07-26-2012, 11:27 AM

Regnerative breaking works best with all-wheel drive, followed by front-wheel drive and rear-wheel drive being the worst. But the difference isn't that big.

Probably not. Drivetrain losses will be greater with AWD. The improved regenerative breaking really only offsets some of the added drivetrain losses.

Also remember that there is a limit as to how much charge you can put back into the battery pack. This could easily be met with just rear brakes. So even if you could generate that much current, can you stuff it into the batteries?

Yggdrasill

07-26-2012, 12:01 PM

Also remember that there is a limit as to how much charge you can put back into the battery pack. This could easily be met with just rear brakes. So even if you could generate that much current, can you stuff it into the batteries?The Model S can charge at least at 90 kW. I suspect that 90 kW of braking on the rear wheels is too much. It's probably limited to less than that.

A Leaf regens a max of 30 kW, even though it can charge at a higher rate than that, and that's on the front wheels. I'm thinking it's limited mostly for safety because the braking isn't on all four tires.

Robert.Boston

07-26-2012, 05:28 PM

To a good first approximation, the cost of electric motors increases with the square-root of the rated energy. E.g., a 400kW motor costs twice what a 100kW motor costs.

vfx

09-27-2012, 02:07 PM

TEG

09-27-2012, 02:16 PM

But, I gather Franz has had something in his head for a while now...

Doug_G

09-27-2012, 03:44 PM

vfx

09-28-2012, 10:31 AM

Do I believe them? "No."

Conspiracy!

Grendal

09-28-2012, 05:45 PM

Conspiracy!

They didn't want you to see the alien spacecraft they had hoisted up. They were pulling all the proprietary technology out to put in the Gen III car.

JRP3

09-28-2012, 07:46 PM

Maybe modern design has progressed beyond a primitive lump of clay? They should have 3D printers spewing out prototypes by the dozens. Or at least a 5 axis mill cutting foam bucks.

Krugerrand

09-28-2012, 08:22 PM

Conspiracy!

NDA!

P.S. Just needed to add that so my msg was long enough.

art

10-02-2012, 06:27 AM

bonnie1194

10-02-2012, 06:43 AM

At the Supercharger reveal I was told we were not let in the building because Bluegenlll is underway.

I specifically asked if there was a full sized clay model in there. Answer, "No"

Is there a smaller clay model? "No".

So it sounds like they are just in the drawings phase now.

Do I believe them? "No."

Conspiracy!

They didn't want you to see the alien spacecraft they had hoisted up. They were pulling all the proprietary technology out to put in the Gen III car.

It has to be past the drawings-only phase - if they only had drawings, those could be easily put away and people allowed in the building. My guess is that they'll reveal and give rides in a prototype at a Model X reservation holders' party.

AnOutsider

10-02-2012, 07:06 AM

they could use a little cash and im ready for a reservation on gen 111. my guess one month after model s gets to maximum monthly production. tesla has brought back kids dreamsand half the fun is in the wait and expectation. i think theres alot of money waiting for gen 111 reservations. the excitment will highten with the prototype. have fun.

I think it may be a bit longer than that depending on if they want Gen III news next or Model X. If X, we need to see another revision mid to late summer next year. Then I'd say late 2013 or early 2014 we see Gen III a year and change ahead of its 2015 launch.

dsm363

10-02-2012, 07:27 AM

It has to be past the drawings-only phase - if they only had drawings, those could be easily put away and people allowed in the building. My guess is that they'll reveal and give rides in a prototype at a Model X reservation holders' party.

I'll be someone's guest to this party. Never miss a Tesla party if you can.

bonnie1194

10-02-2012, 07:34 AM

Never miss a Tesla party if you can.

True that. Tesla parties are phenomenal.

vfx

10-02-2012, 07:42 AM

It has to be past the drawings-only phase - if they only had drawings, those could be easily put away and people allowed in the building.....

Not that it matter one whit but why would he lie?

We will speculate for months either way.

bonnie1194

10-02-2012, 07:44 AM

Not that it matter one whit but why would he lie?

We will speculate for months either way.

Maybe he didn't lie. Maybe [dum dum dum] ... it's PAST the clay model stage and they had a prototype in there!

mnx

10-02-2012, 07:48 AM

Maybe he didn't lie. Maybe [dum dum dum] ... it's PAST the clay model stage and they had a prototype in there!

That was my initial thought also...

vfx

10-02-2012, 07:58 AM

Maybe he didn't lie. Maybe [dum dum dum] ... it's PAST the clay model stage and they had a prototype in there!

Unicorns are real!

Rifleman

10-02-2012, 11:09 AM

Maybe he didn't lie. Maybe [dum dum dum] ... it's PAST the clay model stage and they had a prototype in there!

This is actually very possible. If the Gen III is actually coming out in 2015, there is far less time between now and release than there was between the first drivable model S prototypes and the release of the Model S (granted, the first Model S prototype shares little other than basic exterior design with the finished product)

vfx

10-02-2012, 11:16 AM

Recent EVent conversations with the design team made it sound like they were working on the X and the Supercharger (which at the time confused me, I thought. "It's a box....how fancy can you make it?")

bonnie1194

10-02-2012, 11:18 AM

I'd put money down that they have a skateboard for the GenIII, at least.

VolkerP

10-05-2012, 01:58 AM

I'd put money down that they have a skateboard for the GenIII, at least.

That would be a $2,500 reservation fee. Later on you can decide on the body form (sedan, convertible, crossover) :biggrin:

CapitalistOppressor

10-11-2012, 07:15 PM

I'd put money down that they have a skateboard for the GenIII, at least.

I don't think they could meet their development timeline unless they have a functional skateboard and probably a number of mules to do testing with. They really only have about 2 full years of engineering time left before they need to be putting betas on the street. Most of the really substantial decisions about performance, styling and features need to have been made by now.

PeterW

10-11-2012, 07:19 PM

I remember reading somewhere that the GenIII would have a similar skateboard platform to the Model S with a smaller wheel-base.

JRP3

10-11-2012, 07:27 PM

I would expect the Gen3 to very much be a scaled down S platform, leveraging all the previous work on the S. I think Gen3 could be developed faster than many are speculating.

Grendal

10-11-2012, 09:02 PM

I remember reading somewhere that the GenIII would have a similar skateboard platform to the Model S with a smaller wheel-base.

Elon has said that it will basically be a scaled down version of the Model S. Others have said that won't quite work due to rear seating headroom. So expect some functional variation. But a smaller four door sport sedan with rear hatch is probably going to be what it is.

vfx

10-12-2012, 01:41 PM

I would expect the Gen3 to very much be a scaled down S platform, leveraging all the previous work on the S. I think Gen3 could be developed faster than many are speculating.Agreed. This car has already been figured out. The screen software is done and the Modle X will have the FWD nailed.Elon said 20 to 25% smaller.

gjunky

10-12-2012, 09:21 PM

Agreed. This car has already been figured out. The screen software is done and the Model X will have the FWD nailed. Elon said 20 to 25% smaller.
I Really hope the GENIII will be RWD or AWD.

TEG

10-12-2012, 09:32 PM

I think Franz alluded to the idea that he might be able to get a little more radical with the styling by the time we get to GenIII.
Interesting conundrum as higher volume tends to mean more conservative styling.
Hopefully they "push the envelope" in a way that the masses generally find attractive.

- - - Updated - - -

I Really hope the GENIII will be RWD or AWD.

+400

But, I wonder if VFX was meaning "Four Wheel Drive" when he said "FWD"? Maybe not suggesting that GenIII could get front-wheel drive.

AnOutsider

10-13-2012, 04:22 AM

I think Franz alluded to the idea that he might be able to get a little more radical with the styling by the time we get to GenIII.
Interesting conundrum as higher volume tends to mean more conservative styling.
Hopefully they "push the envelope" in a way that the masses generally find attractive.

Somehow I doubt he REALLY meant radical when he said that.

aronth5

11-14-2012, 04:17 PM

TEG

11-14-2012, 06:00 PM

Somehow I doubt he REALLY meant radical when he said that.

Truly Affordable Tesla Electric Sedan to Launch in 2015 | PluginCars.com (http://www.plugincars.com/extremely-affordable-tesla-electric-sedan-launch-2015-123120.html)

...Von Holzhausen further confirmed that Tesla's fourth electric vehicle [GenIII] will be more radically styled than the rather conventional-looking Model S. "We will become more experimental as we develop as a brand," Von Holzhausen stated. "Our cars need to have some personality."...

Mookuh

11-15-2012, 12:29 AM

I Really hope the GENIII will be RWD or AWD.

In a "low cost, mass-market" electric car, the chances for AWD are somewhat small. Also I'm not sure what it would be needed for on a car the size of a Prius (guesstimation).
Tho offering it as an option is always... an option.:cool:

ggies07

11-15-2012, 08:38 AM

"Besides the upcoming Tesla Model X crossover, Musk said that the company is working on a third-generation car, which is a mass-market electric car. “That’s actually the one that I’m most keen to bring to the market,"

Hopefully this means they are further along then we think designing the GENIII. One can hope right!:smile:

There needs to be a thumbs-up icon, like other boards I'm on, so here's a *thumbs-up*! Can't wait for this to happen. It will shut up the masses about *EV's are too expensive* crap.

Grendal

11-29-2012, 10:14 PM

I hadn't caught this before but Elon mentions the Gen III in this interview:

Tesla Motors CEO: We Expect to Be Profitable Next Year | Fox Business Video (http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/1967301651001/tesla-motors-ceo-we-expect-to-be-profitable-next-year/)

JRP3

11-30-2012, 05:39 AM

I really wish he had made the point that tax payers did not provide money for the loan and never will as long as it gets paid back. It was a loan guarantee.

ggies07

11-30-2012, 07:02 AM

Kevin Harney

11-30-2012, 08:00 AM

So this one is going to smaller eh? I hope not sporty small. I'm a family man and like my sedans. Would get a Model S if I could afford it. I was hoping the more affordable version would still be a sedan, just a smaller, less sleek one. Hmmm......I would also think that it would be easier to sell a four day car than a two door to the mass public.

Think BWM 3 series and Audi A4/5 size and styles and you should be right on track with this model. Both of those have a 2 door, 4 door, convertible and 5 door version of those cars.

ggies07

11-30-2012, 08:43 AM

Think BWM 3 series and Audi A4/5 size and styles and you should be right on track with this model. Both of those have a 2 door, 4 door, convertible and 5 door version of those cars.

Ah, I see. I will have to look those up to see the size.

JRP3

11-30-2012, 10:46 AM

I was hoping the more affordable version would still be a sedan, just a smaller, less sleek one.
It better be more sleek for even better aero.

aronth5

11-30-2012, 05:50 PM

It better be more sleek for even better aero.

And maybe just maybe, the government will approve side view camera mirrors by then with will result in improved aero.
Has anyone heard if they have had any luck getting government approval for side view camera's for the Model X?

Grendal

11-30-2012, 10:27 PM

It better be more sleek for even better aero.

It's going to be hard to beat the Model S when it comes to aero. The Gen III needs to be functional and good looking first and aerodynamic second. The Model S had the size to pull off all the aerodynamic tapering. Even with that it's a little tight for taller people in the back seat. If the GenIII has a similar shape (confirmed) to the S then that headroom is going to be very tight.

vfx

12-01-2012, 12:00 AM

... If the GenIII has a similar shape (confirmed) to the S then that headroom is going to be very tight.

I certainly hope so! The Model S is HUGE. The next car should have room for occasional back seat passengers only. Tesla already has their people carrier.

WarpedOne

12-01-2012, 03:24 AM

It's going to be hard to beat the Model S when it comes to aero.
Not really. It may be hard to beat Model S' Cx, but it should be walk in the park beating its CXd.
Cx is relative number that doesn't accouit for frontal cross-section. Model S is hugely wide. Make it 10" narover and voila - much less air drag.

JRP3

12-01-2012, 05:09 AM

I certainly hope so! The Model S is HUGE. The next car should have room for occasional back seat passengers only. Tesla already has their people carrier.

Correct. To keep costs down and still get sufficient range from the pack aero is going to be even more important on the Gen3. If it doesn't go far enough at the right price it won't sell and the back seat room will be irrelevant. Most cars have an empty back seat probably 90% of the time. 2+2 seating is a possibility, and I think a rational choice, but I think they'll push it for more room than that.

aronth5

12-01-2012, 07:51 AM

I want to see the "slickest" hatchback ever with both 4 door and 2 door options. Hey even Ferrari has hatchback.

12111

vfx

12-01-2012, 08:12 AM

... Most cars have an empty back seat probably 90% of the time. 2+2 seating is a possibility, and I think a rational choice, but I think they'll push it for more room than that.

The frunk really comes into play here. It changes that way you move things around in the back half of the car shape. You can intrude into interior rear stowage space with aerodynamic advantages. without a penalty.

aronth5

12-01-2012, 12:12 PM

The frunk really comes into play here. It changes that way you move things around in the back half of the car shape. You can intrude into interior rear stowage space with aerodynamic advantages. without a penalty.

Good point and I love the frunk. But there are still times when you want to carry something longer that needs a hatchback where part or all of the back seat can be lowered. So far Tesla has emphasized the ability for the Model S and Model X to carry lots of stuff. I see them continuing philosophy just in a smaller scale. Another way they could one up the BMW 3 series.

art

12-08-2012, 08:19 AM

now that we know that the model s 60 kwh gets 208 miles of range . how far will the gen 111 go with a 60 kwh pack and being a 25 % smaller car with less drag and next gen batterie ?

Discoducky

12-08-2012, 08:34 AM

now that we know that the model s 60 kwh gets 208 miles of range . how far will the gen 111 go with a 60 kwh pack and being a 25 % smaller car with less drag and next gen batterie ?

Smaller tires, less weight, maybe assume same CoD and same efficiency in the motor, gearbox, inverter and cells (even though this will get better) I think you could see 300miles at 55MPH and more like 285EPA due to less weight in the 5 cycle test.

I do wonder how much TM will shrink the distance between axles, thus reducing the usable area for battery. This could make squeezing more batteries in difficult. But would guess they'll be using a newer generation anyways as technology marches on.

art

12-08-2012, 12:31 PM

how much less space does the 60 kwh pack take than the 85 kwh pack and about how far do you think the gen 111 could go at 70 mph with the 60 kwh pack.

TEG

12-08-2012, 01:43 PM

For Model S, my understanding is that the 60kWh pack is the same dimensional size as the 85kWh.
Inside the case it may have a similar # of lower capacity cells, or a lesser number of the same cells, but with some empty space.

For GenIII, I assume they would have higher density cells by then so they could (in theory) make even smaller packs.

But, for the sake of argument, if they used the existing 85kWh Model S pack type cells then they could make a 60kWh pack that is about 60/85 the size (~70%) for a smaller car.

In other words, I think they could use current tech to make a 60kWh BMW 3 series sized vehicle with an under floor pack similar in layout to what they did for the larger Model S. It may end up being more about cost than space constraints...

EcoHeliGuy

12-09-2012, 08:40 PM

I'm guessing from past announcements we will see a prototype (maybe not gen 3) in Feb. Tesla doesn't need to build a factory, find suppliers, design from the ground up, ect. So I think we would see a time frame similar to the model X.

Also while watching the Tesla episode of mega factories on NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC, I couldn't help but notice in the design/clay room. That there are three cars, in a row from left to right they are a model x, model s, and model s look alike. But if you look at the belt line between the wheel the car looks like the wheel base is slightly shorter. To me it looks like a coupe version of the S. similar to the M5 coupe. I know discussion before was on a clay model. But that was at a different period of time, and in a employee hire video.

AnOutsider

12-09-2012, 08:55 PM

I'm not sure we'll see anything in February personally. Tesla has a lot of buzz to ride on in the new year. X amount of cars delivered, new updates to the car, new stores and service centers rolling out and new superchargers going up.

Once they've exhausted that, then they'll likely share some model x info since it'll be due in about a year from that point vs a car that's still likely 2 years out IMO.

gjunky

12-10-2012, 01:51 PM

I agree that February would not seem likely. Perhaps something at the end of 2013. Perhaps another October Event for the X and then some announcement of the GENIII in December :)
A person could wish.

- - - Updated - - -

For Model S, my understanding is that the 60kWh pack is the same dimensional size as the 85kWh.
Inside the case it may have a similar # of lower capacity cells, or a lesser number of the same cells, but with some empty space.

For GenIII, I assume they would have higher density cells by then so they could (in theory) make even smaller packs.

But, for the sake of argument, if they used the existing 85kWh Model S pack type cells then they could make a 60kWh pack that is about 60/85 the size (~70%) for a smaller car.

In other words, I think they could use current tech to make a 60kWh BMW 3 series sized vehicle with an under floor pack similar in layout to what they did for the larger Model S. It may end up being more about cost than space constraints...

The could extend the battery underneath the Frunk and Trunk to give it more room. It keeps the flat floor and low center of gravity. Underneath the Frunk might not work because of AWD ideas and the steering mechanism but there is nothing underneath the trunk in the Model S (Cubby for the rear facing seats)

JRP3

12-10-2012, 04:15 PM

That might cause problems in a crash, the battery would take a more direct hit. I think they'll keep it within the wheelbase.

vfx

12-10-2012, 04:18 PM

That might cause problems in a crash, the battery would take a more direct hit. I think they'll keep it within the wheelbase.

They could stack batteries under the rear seat (more than they do now) and move the chargers above the motor.

Grendal

12-10-2012, 04:30 PM

That might cause problems in a crash, the battery would take a more direct hit. I think they'll keep it within the wheelbase.

Agreed. Why play with something that works? Tesla is going to want this car to be mass marketed and doing anything too bizarre or risky is just asking for problems down the line. The battery pack will be the size and shape to be between the front and rear axle. I also expect the motor to go between the rear wheels for crash safety making the Gen III a rear wheel drive car just like the Model S. I expect that for mass market acceptance that Tesla would prefer it to be FWD. It's an interesting dilemna.

And to bring this back to the topic of the thread - I'm going to guess late 2013 before we see the Gen III prototype. Knowing Tesla and Elon it will probably be at a time to give the stock a big boost.

aronth5

12-10-2012, 04:45 PM

And to bring this back to the topic of the thread - I'm going to guess late 2013 before we see the Gen III prototype. Knowing Tesla and Elon it will probably be at a time to give the stock a big boost.

Agree. Late 2013 for the prototype. Hopefully that means they will take reservations too. Would be great year end publicity for them. But, first Tesla needs to focus on the Model X. An awful lot of people, especially on this forum, are anxiously waiting to see the Model X that will actually be built along with pricing announcements.

Grendal

12-10-2012, 05:18 PM

Late 2013 for the prototype. Hopefully that means they will take reservations too.

If they are going to show the prototype, you can bet they are going to take reservations for it.

And lots of them too...

TEG

12-10-2012, 06:01 PM

They could stack batteries under the rear seat (more than they do now) and move the chargers above the motor.

LEAF does that. It has a stack of battery cells tall under the rear seat.
The 2013 version also moves the charger & inverter into a stack of control electronics above the motor (sort-of like the Roadster/RAV4 prototype PEM arrangement.)
The downside is that there is no 'Frunk' in LEAF or RAV4EV...

vfx

12-10-2012, 06:24 PM

LEAF does that. ...

Tesla was doing that when we looked at the skateboard at the factory in Oct. There was a small hump in the battery platform towards the rear of the car and I was told it was more batteries "because they could". Not sure if they
kept it.

JRP3

12-10-2012, 06:34 PM

With the concerns over rear seat headroom in the S, and likely more so with the smaller Gen3, I'm not sure they could stack them there.

vfx

12-10-2012, 06:41 PM

With the concerns over rear seat headroom in the S, and likely more so with the smaller Gen3, I'm not sure they could stack them there.
Agreed but I think we both consider the back seat in the bluegenlll to be of less importance. Are you in the market for one JRP3?

JRP3

12-10-2012, 07:26 PM

Oh yeah, if it meets my expectations of course.

PureAmps

12-10-2012, 07:36 PM

So the answer to the when we will see Gen III may be the solution to the puzzle being discussed in the following thread. Have fun. :)

Top Menu - Page 4 (http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/11599-Top-Menu/page4)

gjunky

03-11-2013, 03:11 PM

I am really curious, with the delay of the Model X, how much longer we will have to wait for the GENIII. It was already going to be a long wait but it now seems reasonable that this will be delayed by at least an additional year. I am hoping Tesla can shed some light on this soon....

Better still, show us an Alpha :wink:

EVNow

03-11-2013, 03:40 PM

With the current state of batteries, I don't think a long range small car with enough interior space is possible. Gen III will have to wait for density improvements.

Ofcourse, they can show a non-working or a shorter range prototype.

If the idea is to sell gen 3 in 2017/18, I don't see them showing the Gen 3 before 2016, though. Tesla no longer needs to generate interest by showing prototypes.

JRod0802

03-11-2013, 03:43 PM

I believe the plan as of late 2012 was Gen III in 2015. Then in January of 2013 Elon said that that Gen III was "three or four" years away. That would mean January 2016 to January 2017. That being said, it'll probably be delayed even more because Elon is always wrong when it comes to long-term schedules. So I'm guessing the delivery of the first car will probably end up being mid-2017 with a slow ramp up.

Norbert

03-11-2013, 04:22 PM

I believe the plan as of late 2012 was Gen III in 2015.

I don't think there was ever a definite plan. My understanding (from various comments) in 2011/2012 was more like *late* 2015 to 2016 (yet so vague that it could also be even later).

I think there is still no definite plan or timetable which would have "delays". I'm assuming that they start making serious plans only once Model X comes close to production, since at that point they'll have more clarity about the situation, state of battery tech, and the financial situation. And until then, there probably isn't much to be done about it.

- - - Updated - - -

The Model X was probably announced quite early because it was part of the plans for how the current manufacturing line will be used.

But I guess Elon will at some point start to talk a bit about the Gen III simply because he likes to look far into the future (and perhaps to help Tesla in planning, by seeing what the responses are).

Rifleman

03-11-2013, 04:33 PM

The though of Gen III being significantly delayed is depressing to me, as my Volt goes off lease in September 2015, and I was really hoping to replace it with a Gen III vehicle. I guess I will either have to find a way to afford a Model S, or end up with a second gen Volt.

Grendal

03-11-2013, 10:20 PM

Six months ago when they began to hint at a delay I changed from "I'm waiting on a Gen III due out in 2015" to "I'm buying a Tesla in 2015." It's looking more and more like I'll be getting a Model S.

Rifleman

03-12-2013, 04:58 AM

Six months ago when they began to hint at a delay I changed from "I'm waiting on a Gen III due out in 2015" to "I'm buying a Tesla in 2015." It's looking more and more like I'll be getting a Model S.

I am hoping to be able to put myself in the same category. It really is going to depend on the real world range of the 40 kWh Model S. If I have faith that I will do 100 miles in winter in standard charge mode (1 day a week a have a 90 mile round trip commute) That will be my next car. The 60 kWh model will likely still be out of reach for me (although who knows what could change in the next 2 years).

CarbonTax

03-12-2013, 06:20 AM

Six months ago when they began to hint at a delay I changed from "I'm waiting on a Gen III due out in 2015" to "I'm buying a Tesla in 2015." It's looking more and more like I'll be getting a Model S.

if you're married, how's the wife with that?
I just bought a 2013 Volt in October since I could not wait until summer 2013 for the 40kWh S delivery

dsm363

03-12-2013, 06:55 AM

I am hoping to be able to put myself in the same category. It really is going to depend on the real world range of the 40 kWh Model S. If I have faith that I will do 100 miles in winter in standard charge mode (1 day a week a have a 90 mile round trip commute) That will be my next car. The 60 kWh model will likely still be out of reach for me (although who knows what could change in the next 2 years).

If you plan on keeping the car many years I think the 40kWh version likely wouldn't work well for highway winter driving of 90 miles unless you had someplace to charge at work. Hopefully the 60kWh version will work out or the Gen III will be out.

Rifleman

03-12-2013, 07:21 AM

If you plan on keeping the car many years I think the 40kWh version likely wouldn't work well for highway winter driving of 90 miles unless you had someplace to charge at work. Hopefully the 60kWh version will work out or the Gen III will be out.

All the math that I am running is coming up with the same conclusion. Unless the 40 kWh ends up surpassing expectations, I will have to end up with a 60 kWh or a Gen II Volt (unless Gen III surprises us and comes out on time) One of the big factors in me canceling my Model S reservation was the fact that I would have to finalize long before the stats on the 40 were available, and it really will be borderline for my needs. The 60 is out of reach for me, so my hand was forced.

Let's just hope that Tesla under promises and over delivers when it comes to the release date of Gen III :)

VolkerP

03-12-2013, 01:56 PM

rifleman; in 2015 there should be used Model S in your market for fair prices.

DuncanWatson

03-14-2013, 11:36 AM

anticitizen13.7

03-17-2013, 06:00 PM

The Model S is too big for me. I like my Ford Focus Electric, a nice size and easy to maneuver. I would like something similar in the GenIII. Hopefully 2016 will be the year because my FFE lease ends then. I may end up with the Litmotors C-1 if it is ready then in lieu of a Tesla GenIII.

The Model S is too big for me as well and I'm waiting for G3.

I remember that Elon and others wanted to target the G3 Tesla against the BMW 3 series, which has a track of 60.3" and a wheelbase of 110.6". That's noticeably smaller than Model S, which has an average track (between front and rear) of about 66" and a wheelbase of 116.5".

On a related note, if the G3/Bluestar has approximately the same dimensions as the BMW3, it should have around 91% track width and 95% wheelbase length of Model S. The area in the center for the battery pack would be roughly 0.91*0.95 = 86% that of the Model S. So 85 kWh * 86% = 73 kWh, and 60 kWh * 86% = 52 kWh (approx). Of course, this assumes that the same cell types are being used in a few years. If new battery cell types are available at lower cost in a few years, the capacity could be higher.

The smaller battery, combined with hopefully falling battery prices, and greater economies of scale on components like the touchscreen, will help drive down the cost of the G3.

Tesla can also do a few other things to save on cost and weight:

Use a simpler McPherson strut suspension in the front, rather than the more complicated double wishbone found in the Model S.
Smaller wheels and narrower tires: 17" base alloys and 19" alloys for performance.
Smaller brakes. If the car is lighter and has smaller wheels, it won't need big rotors to compliment regen.

JRP3

03-17-2013, 07:56 PM

If 86% of the 85kWh pack is 73kWh then the current 60kWh pack would fit as is since it uses the same cells.

ElSupreme

03-18-2013, 07:05 AM

The Model X was probably announced quite early because it was part of the plans for how the current manufacturing line will be used.

But I guess Elon will at some point start to talk a bit about the Gen III simply because he likes to look far into the future (and perhaps to help Tesla in planning, by seeing what the responses are).

I honestly think the praise/demand for Model S is greater than Tesla expected. I think the early demonstration of the Model X was to provide investors another step/product that they could market if the S didn't have the demand.

There is no rush if the Model S is in full production and profitable. They should wait on dumping tons of money into R&D and rushing a product out that isn't ready. It is an unnecessary risk. They should stabilize financially and then work on scaling up for a GenIII vehicle.

ipdamages

03-18-2013, 08:41 AM

I completely agree, Supremo. I think they also have been reminded that 1) launching a new car is hard and lots of things can go wrong, and 2) the street wants profits and doesn't have the same patience as early investors.

That said, I will be curious to see if they are able to achieve or sustain 20K MSs/year. Hitting that pace with the delivery of the waiting list to enthusiastic early adopters is one thing. Finding 20K new sales per year is another. Happily, to date they really haven't advertised, and I agree with you that they have beaten many people's expectations. I hope that word of mouth and the car itself continue to generate demand. And adding the MX is only going to help.

Electric1

03-18-2013, 08:55 AM

That said, I will be curious to see if they are able to achieve or sustain 20K MSs/year. Hitting that pace with the delivery of the waiting list to enthusiastic early adopters is one thing. Finding 20K new sales per year is another. Happily, to date they really haven't advertised, and I agree with you that they have beaten many people's expectations. I hope that word of mouth and the car itself continue to generate demand. And adding the MX is only going to help.

My concern is that they polish some of the rough edges off design/manufacturing/sales/service before they start advertising to the general public. Some of the things that us early adopters just take in stride might really annoy the general public. They should fix them before trying Gen III

anticitizen13.7

03-18-2013, 02:00 PM

My concern is that they polish some of the rough edges off design/manufacturing/sales/service before they start advertising to the general public. Some of the things that us early adopters just take in stride might really annoy the general public. They should fix them before trying Gen III

I agree, but I have faith that Tesla will get everything polished by the time they are ready to produce the G3 vehicle.

The software on G3 needs to be nearly perfect from the start... there can't be any weird bugs with the glass roof or inexplicable vampire load on the battery. The interfaces, particularly the key access/operation and door handles, can't be glitchy. The interior needs storage spaces... cup holders in the back for kids and a sunglasses holder for starters.

I expect that G3 will use the same general operating software as Model S, so I'm sure all the bugs will be worked out by 2016-2017. Model S has been in production for about 9 months now and Tesla has made steady improvement on the vehicle.

Norbert

03-18-2013, 06:51 PM

I honestly think the praise/demand for Model S is greater than Tesla expected. I think the early demonstration of the Model X was to provide investors another step/product that they could market if the S didn't have the demand.

There is no rush if the Model S is in full production and profitable. They should wait on dumping tons of money into R&D and rushing a product out that isn't ready. It is an unnecessary risk. They should stabilize financially and then work on scaling up for a GenIII vehicle.

Also, the recent conference call suggested that approaching the European and Asian market (starting in 2013 and then in 2014) will gradually increase the demand to $30k-$39k per year, for the Model S alone. So introducing the Model X, while meeting the additional demand, might require adding production facilities beyond the originally planned capacity of the current line (depending, in degree, on how things develop).

Grendal

03-27-2013, 05:17 PM

vfx

03-27-2013, 06:09 PM

I like the looks of the Mercedes that Tesla is providing the drivetrain for. I'd like to see that shape as the Gen III crossover car. (http://www.autoblog.com/2013/03/27/2014-mercedes-benz-b-class-electric-drive-new-york/)

YUK!

Nothing like the BMW 3 series or Jetta that Tesla has talked about.

thank goodness

JRP3

03-27-2013, 07:05 PM

Incredibly dull.

03-27-2013, 08:00 PM

I would think GEN III might resemble a smaller version of the S. Same shape, curves and front.

stopcrazypp

03-27-2013, 08:04 PM

I would think GEN III might resemble a smaller version of the S. Same shape, curves and front.
That might look better but I think a traditional hatch is more practical and will give better/usable rear headroom. Maybe there will be two versions?

Norbert

03-27-2013, 08:08 PM

aronth5

03-27-2013, 08:21 PM

Raffy.Roma

03-28-2013, 09:25 AM

I would think GEN III might resemble a smaller version of the S. Same shape, curves and front.

Agree

Rifleman

03-28-2013, 10:11 AM

I would think GEN III might resemble a smaller version of the S. Same shape, curves and front.

I also agree, and really hope that we are right on this one.

palmer_md

03-28-2013, 10:50 AM

I would think GEN III might resemble a smaller version of the S. Same shape, curves and front.

Agree

I also agree, and really hope that we are right on this one.

Isn't that what TEG posted way up on post #19

http://img.tapatalk.com/5574cae0-7c18-5191.jpg

Raffy.Roma

03-28-2013, 11:43 AM

@palmer_md
I think that you are right. I would like to know the dimensions of this prototype.

gregincal

03-28-2013, 12:56 PM

That might look better but I think a traditional hatch is more practical and will give better/usable rear headroom. Maybe there will be two versions?

That's what Mercedes is doing with the A-Class and CLA. Note however, that the CLA is what they're selling in the US. The B class is a mini-MPV, and not at all what Tesla is going for.

clmason

03-28-2013, 01:15 PM

Speculating on size: I think Tesla Gen 3 will be physically 10% smaller than the MBW 3 Series (and competitors) but will have 10-20% more interior/storage space. The Gen 3 will want to be bumper to bumper as small as possible for aerodynamics/drag reasons but with the electric drive train it will have more interior space available. So, small on the outside, big on the inside sort of thing...

JRP3

03-28-2013, 01:53 PM

I'm not sure being small as possible bumper to bumper helps aerodynamics, it's more about frontal shape, (cd), and frontal area. Long, low, and narrow is probably best, within reason.

clmason

03-28-2013, 02:09 PM

I meant smaller in all dimensions, not just bumper to bumper, wouldn't they help optimize for aerodynamics and drag?

stopcrazypp

03-28-2013, 02:39 PM

I meant smaller in all dimensions, not just bumper to bumper, wouldn't they help optimize for aerodynamics and drag?
Cars that are less tall and wide reduce frontal area (the "A" in CdA) which helps reduce drag overall.

However, shrinking the overall length of cars do not help aerodynamics, instead it would likely hurt it because longer cars tend to be closer to the ideal tear drop shape and this helps lower Cd. That's why the Aptera is so long even though it's only a two seater.

Raffy.Roma

03-28-2013, 04:17 PM

Speculating on size: I think Tesla Gen 3 will be physically 10% smaller than the MBW 3 Series (and competitors) but will have 10-20% more interior/storage space.

This would be perfect in Italy and in particular in Rome where the roads are narrow. I hope that Gen 3 will come as soon as possible.

aronth5

03-28-2013, 06:24 PM

Isn't that what TEG posted way up on post #19

http://img.tapatalk.com/5574cae0-7c18-5191.jpg

Will be interesting to see if Gen3 will be a 2-door or 4-door. Personally, I believe a 4-door hatchback would be better received.
Elon appears to like easy access, with good storage. So while I like the looks a 2 door is more likely to be the roadster replacement.
Not expecting to see the prototype until 2016.

Raffy.Roma

03-29-2013, 12:27 AM

Will be interesting to see if Gen3 will be a 2-door or 4-door. Personally, I believe a 4-door hatchback would be better received.

Agree

- - - Updated - - -

Not expecting to see the prototype until 2016.

That would mean Gen 3 to be produced in 2018. I hope sooner.

dsm363

03-29-2013, 04:11 AM

I don't think a 2 door car is a mass market car. Hope it's a 4 door car as well.

03-29-2013, 06:24 AM

I don't think a 2 door car is a mass market car. Hope it's a 4 door car as well.
Yes. 2-door is usually targeted at a different demographic.

Bearman

03-29-2013, 07:30 AM

I dont see why they cant have both eventually but I agree that they should start with a four door.
Some people might pay extra for a two door sport coupe :)

vfx

03-29-2013, 07:57 AM

2 doors are all that's needed.

jandkw

03-29-2013, 08:06 AM

I like the looks of the Mercedes that Tesla is providing the drivetrain for. I'd like to see that shape as the Gen III crossover car.

2014 Mercedes-Benz B-Class Electric Drive is headed for US (http://www.autoblog.com/2013/03/27/2014-mercedes-benz-b-class-electric-drive-new-york/)

I am driving the 60KW Model S now (great performance) but also interested in Gen III. I do hope Tesla is not using the same drivetrain they supplied to MB (0-60 less than 10 sec., according to the news) I doubt they are going to sell many Gen III with that kind of performance. If you look at the premium car today like BMW, the same engine used in 3-series, 5-series and 7-series, the 3-series is always better in performance due to the smaller size and lighter weight. I hope this is the case with Gen III. With technology improvement in battery, the lithium ion battery should improve in capacity in 3-4 years and therefore it will cost less and improve range. I am rooting for Tesla to figure out the successful formula for both the company and consumers.

Teslawisher

03-29-2013, 08:53 AM

2 doors are all that's needed.

For who? Sure there's a market for that, but I can't imagine that's "all that's needed".

I'm hauling 3 kids in the back of my mid-sized 4 door (Saturn Aura). I would love to have same or smaller exterior size with greater interior room!! Needless to say, my vote is for the 4-door version.

vfx

03-29-2013, 09:08 AM

Grendal

03-29-2013, 10:05 AM

I am driving the 60KW Model S now (great performance) but also interested in Gen III. I do hope Tesla is not using the same drivetrain they supplied to MB (0-60 less than 10 sec., according to the news) I doubt they are going to sell many Gen III with that kind of performance. If you look at the premium car today like BMW, the same engine used in 3-series, 5-series and 7-series, the 3-series is always better in performance due to the smaller size and lighter weight. I hope this is the case with Gen III. With technology improvement in battery, the lithium ion battery should improve in capacity in 3-4 years and therefore it will cost less and improve range. I am rooting for Tesla to figure out the successful formula for both the company and consumers.

Elon has already said the Gen III is roughly a 25% smaller version of the Model S. That could change, of course, but I'll take him at his word for now. I expect the performance to be on par or slightly better than the Model S. I absolutely don't think the Mercedes is any indication of what Tesla will do for the Gen III. I was simply commenting that the Mercs shape would work well with the Gen III's Model X style crossover when they decide to do that car. I would expect it to be completely Tesla with Franz's design elements. Maybe it will have smaller Falcon doors...

vfx

03-29-2013, 10:14 AM

... Maybe it will have smaller Falcon doors...

Funny I was thinking that too when looking at the advantages of 2 VS 4 doors.

JRP3

03-29-2013, 10:16 AM

I'm hauling 3 kids in the back of my mid-sized 4 door (Saturn Aura). I would love to have same or smaller exterior size with greater interior room!! Needless to say, my vote is for the 4-door version.
Kids should be able to get into the back seat of a 2 door car.

jandkw

03-29-2013, 01:41 PM

gregincal

03-29-2013, 01:56 PM

2 doors are considered sporty but the design advantages on Teslas battery placement will make it more practical with much more interior space.

Many manufacturers make a 2 and a 4 door version of their cars but it's apparently very expensive to do this as few parts are shared. Tesla's "skateboard platform may alleviate this somewhat but they are still a startup without the resouces of established brands.

I looked for sales figures on 2 VS 4 doors on the BMW 3 series but was unsuccessful. Calling TEG!

"The coupe and convertible each accounted for 15 percent – or about 14,000 units apiece – of the 3 series' U.S. sales of 94,371 last year, BMW said."
http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2012/dec/14/bmw-rename-3-series-coupe-convertible-4-series-mod/

In my opinion there is no way that Tesla isn't introducing Gen III as a 4 door, with only a possibility of a later coupe version.

vfx

03-29-2013, 03:05 PM

Smaller Falcon doors? I hope not. I don't know how many Falcon door design (understand the Falcon is a little different than and is the space savings kind) that are successful for the past 30 years in the mass market. Many manufacturers tried but failed. The one that I can recall and is still in the market (?) is DeLorean's 2-seater supercar. I know it's nice to look at when opening but not sure how practical they are. This is like the automatic seat belts a while back. Many car manufacturers tried but majority of the customers disliked them.

I have been in the 3rd row of the X and experienced the Falcon wing doors. The entire reason for the Falcon doors on the Model X is that they are practical in use. The space savings you mention (and the acess they offer) is the reason. They are superior to the Delorean doors which are actually quite good. Delorean did gull wings like the old Mercedes is because cars with wide doorsills need them. And calling it a supercar is a bit much. The engine was it's weak point.

"The coupe and convertible each accounted for 15 percent – or about 14,000 units apiece – of the 3 series' U.S. sales of 94,371 last year, BMW said."
http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2012/...-4-series-mod/ (http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2012/dec/14/bmw-rename-3-series-coupe-convertible-4-series-mod/)

Then I have to hope they do all three. Or that Franz does something super cool. Thanks.

ItsNotAboutTheMoney

03-29-2013, 04:10 PM

Elon has already said the Gen IIIller version of the Model S. That could change, of course, but I'll take him at his word for now. I expect the performance to be on par or slightly better than the Model S. I absolutely don't think the Mercedes is any indication of what Tesla will do for the Gen III. I was simply commentirk well with the Gen III's Model X style crossover when they decide to do that car. I would expect it to be completely Tesla with Franz's design elements. Maybe it will have smaller Falcon doors...

I don't think it'll have great performance. How do you get a 200 mile range and cut costs significantly over the Model S while keeping the same performance? My thought is that they might be able to use hybrid batteries (they have a patent).

There's kind of a pick 3 of 4 rule with cells: price, life, energy density, power density. Power density gives you performance and energy density gives you good capacity for weight. If they combined lots of cheap energy-dense cells with fewer power-dense cells like A123^h^h^h^hB456's they might be able to provide a relatively light car with good range at steady speed that has the ability to provide occasional bursts of performance at a reduced price. Then instead of your upgrade increasing capacity, you'd increase performance by increasing the proportion of power dense cells.

I'd be happy to opt for the base "Prius" trim.

JRP3

03-29-2013, 04:16 PM

As much as I would like to see a two door I'm fully expecting a four door.

- - - Updated - - -

I don't think it'll have great performance. How do you get a 200 mile range and cut costs significantly over the Model S while keeping the same performance?
A smaller, lighter vehicle can have similar performance with a smaller pack. Add in more advanced cells that are capable of higher C rates, not impossible, and it's a given. Example, A123 LiFePO4 cells have much higher C rates than other LiFePO4 cells with the same energy density. Also the new versions of the LiFePO4 cells that I used in my car now have higher C rates at the same energy density.

anticitizen13.7

03-29-2013, 05:46 PM

If the goal of the G3 Tesla is mass-market acceptance, I think it's almost a given that it will be a 4-door vehicle. However, I think that a 2-door variant would be possible in the near future after the release of the 4-door.

Mr X

03-30-2013, 01:24 PM

Sure looks alot like the Ford Focus Energi
19102

not an appealing car at all....

Grendal

03-30-2013, 05:39 PM

I don't think it'll have great performance. How do you get a 200 mile range and cut costs significantly over the Model S while keeping the same performance? My thought is that they might be able to use hybrid batteries (they have a patent).

I'm not expecting the base level Gen III to have spectacular numbers but part of the advantage of an EV is rapid acceleration. I'll bet the Gen III has a speed range of 0-60 in 4 seconds (performance version) to, at maximum, 7.5 seconds for the lowest priced version. I doubt Tesla will want anything faster than that because they need room to kill with the new Roadster.

WarpedOne

03-31-2013, 02:49 AM

stopcrazypp

03-31-2013, 10:54 AM

I doubt they will be sandbagging GenIII performance. There will be different versions with different performance. Max performance might even exceed M85P at high price and less interior space. M3 is in some respects faster than M5.
New roadster will be AWD, a little bird told me ...
M3 has better handling, but acceleration is still slower than the M5. M5's power to weight ratio is still better. I think a 4 second 0-60 is right on the dot. The 2014 M3 will take a bit longer than 4 seconds to 0-60.

I agree on AWD for the Roadster (at least as an option). It's only logical because it's going to be really tough to get sub-3 second 0-60 (as is now common in the supercar class) without AWD.

ryanjm

03-31-2013, 06:33 PM

Mr X

04-02-2013, 04:41 PM

Hasn't Elon already publicly said, either in an interview or on Twitter, that Gen3 will have the best performance in its class (read: it will beat a BMW 3 series)? And I'm presuming it's an apples-to-apples comparison (i.e. M3 vs. Gen3 Performance)...

he compared it to the 3 series (size), not sure if he said anything about it being able to beat one, but im sure it will (the performance model that is)

vfx

04-02-2013, 05:09 PM

This is Elon. It will trounce a 3 series.

WhiteKnight

04-05-2013, 06:54 AM

Sure looks alot like the Ford Focus Energi
19102

They definitely look alike but that is a picture of a Ford C-Max. Both cars are in the MPV segment. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compact_MPV

art

05-15-2013, 09:47 AM

whats the difference between a gen 111 engineering prototype alpha, and a gen 111 vehicle prototype beta, and is there a difference between a gen 111 vehicle prototype beta, and a gen 111 production vehicle?

Grendal

05-15-2013, 07:18 PM

aronth5

05-15-2013, 07:29 PM

Grendal

05-15-2013, 08:21 PM

Yes you are dreaming:smile: Hoping that Chris Porritt new VP of Vehicle Engineering puts some of that money into accelerating development.
However, the timeline may be more dependent on improved batteries so the wait may be well worth it.

Elon has said that there are some new improvements in batteries that he knows about. It was a recent interview and I believe he said the improvements were startling or something like that...

Rifleman

05-16-2013, 05:33 AM

I'm hoping we're back on for 2015.

Thats two of us, especially since my Volt lease gets turned in Sept. 2015 (and I REALLY want to replace it with a Gen III)

aronth5

05-17-2013, 05:57 PM

Elon has said that there are some new improvements in batteries that he knows about. It was a recent interview and I believe he said the improvements were startling or something like that...

It will take 2 years between the Model S and Model X and that is on the same platform. Even with new exciting improvements in batteries they still need to develop a new platform. And then you have to design the car, build an alpha and then a beta prototype. I just don't see this happening in time to begin deliveries in 2015. Orders in 2015 sure. Hope I am wrong but so far Tesla's track record on meeting dates is less than stellar .

jeff_adams

05-18-2013, 10:50 AM

Hope I am wrong but so far Tesla's track record on meeting dates is less than stellar .

They've always been hampered by being on a shoestring budget. Now that they have raised capitol, I think they can accerate development of their projects. They had to make sure they could survive long enough to build it.

gjunky

05-18-2013, 11:40 AM

I am just curious if the GEN3 will be out before the stock hits $200/share because I will be in the market for a new Tesla by then :)

JRod0802

05-18-2013, 08:57 PM

I am just curious if the GEN3 will be out before the stock hits $200/share because I will be in the market for a new Tesla by then :)

I'm going to go ahead and guess that the success of Gen III will cause the stock to go way up. Gen III will probably not be considered a success when the first car gets delivered. The market will probably consider it a success when it reaches full production rate and full margins. The Model S should reach full margins by Q4 2013, which is one and a half years after the first car was delivered. So maybe wait one and a half years after Gen III comes out, then sell your stock, and buy a Gen III*. Also note that one and a half years is also a good number because by then all bugs should be worked out, and any minor desired options should be available.

*I am not an expert on stocks, I'm just writing what I think makes sense.

DaveT

05-19-2013, 12:06 PM

How will the secondary offering affect Gen III? I think it will help accelerate it's timetable. The offering will put an extra $365 million into the coffers for future expenditures.

I'm hoping we're back on for 2015.

I'm dreaming. I know. C'mon Tesla and Elon, make my dreams come true!

I'm dying for a Gen III as well but don't expect it until 2016-2017 even with the new capital raise.

The Model X is slated to be released at the end of 2014. I remember Elon has said Gen III will come 3-4 years after Model X. Another place I remember he said 3-4 years from now. That would put it sometime between 2016-2018. And would give about 4-6 years between the Model S and Gen III - enough time to take advantage of new battery technology and lower costs.

I really hope they push it and show us a prototype by the end of 2014 and release in 2016.

DaveT

05-19-2013, 04:37 PM

I found the place where Elon Musk says Gen III will come out in 3-4 years (this is from March 2013).

Twitter / elonmusk: .@joshj777 It has always been ... (https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/315583897448632322)

I doubt there's any chance it will come out in 2015. I think we can keep our fingers crossed for 2016 (so prototype in 2014/2015 maybe?).

AnOutsider

05-19-2013, 05:05 PM

We have to also allow for changes... On the small scale, the various announcements have been moved back and around a week or two here and there. On a larger scale, the X was moved back a whole year.

I feel pretty safe in assuming there will be changes to the G3 timeline. Right now id say 2016-17 is likely unless something changes (big cash infusion, big leap in battery tech etc)

DaveT

05-19-2013, 05:29 PM

Just read this article where Elon Musk says Gen III will be coming in 2016 or 2017 at the latest.
The Engadget Interview: Tesla's Elon Musk promises more Superchargers, better service, cheaper EVs that don't suck (http://www.engadget.com/2013/04/05/elon-musk-interview/)

"That's about three to four years out," says Musk. "Hopefully 2016, but I would say no later than 2017." To get there, the company has a significant engineering task ahead of it, having to reduce the cost of the battery pack and the electric drivetrain by 50 percent just to have a chance. "Economies of scale will help with that, and it'll be a slightly smaller car, so that'll help too ... Going from the Roadster to the Model S the cost dropped by about half, and I think we can do that again."

aronth5

05-19-2013, 06:04 PM

When the Model S and Model X were announced it was a huge event here. I know I adjusted my schedule to catch them live like many many others on TMC. But else where not so much. And course I did the same for Elon's announcement in Norway earlier this year. The Gen3 live announcement will be many times larger, much like when Apple releases a new IPhone. By then the Tesla will be very well known by the public and there will be lots of interest for a car targeted for the masses. And if they are ready to take reservations Tesla better beef up their web site that night. So I'm putting my name in now for any TMC member who has an extra ticket to Fremont for the announcement:smile: