Fuel prices world-wide

[widodh]

I just stumbled upon this: Gasoline and diesel usage and pricing - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gasoline_and_diesel_usage_and_pricing#Typical_gasoline_prices_around_the_world)

I know fuel is expensive here, but that we would be #3 is not something I expected...

So, ship me my Model S!

(Yes, I had a outdated chart in the TS....)

[TEG]

I think your list may be a bit dated. This article says "All prices updated March, 2005." and has the same values as your chart:
CNN/Money: Global gas prices (http://money.cnn.com/pf/features/lists/global_gasprices/)

Here is a more recent article showing some even higher values:
(For instance, $6.77/gal in Tokyo, and $8.35/gal in Germany)
Shocking Gas Prices Around the Globe - ABC News (http://abcnews.go.com/Business/shocking-gas-prices-globe/story?id=13349235)

[TEG]

Wikipedia shows some over $9/gal now:
Gasoline and diesel usage and pricing - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gasoline_and_diesel_usage_and_pricing)

Turkey: $9.99: http://gm.poas.com.tr/pompafiyat/pompafiyatgrid.aspx
Norway: $9.84: http://www.reisen-tcs.ch/etc/medialib/travel/reiseinfos/pdf.Par.0014.File.tmp/EUR_essence.pdf
Netherlands $9.12: nu.nl | Brandstof (http://www.nu.nl/brandstof/)

[widodh]

Indeed! This got published today on a big dutch car website, but you are right, it's wrong.

Still, if you check Wikipedia: Gasoline and diesel usage and pricing - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gasoline_and_diesel_usage_and_pricing#Typical_gasoline_prices_around_the_world)

We are number #3... $9.12 per gallon!

[TEG]

(Seems we had the same thought to go to Wikipedia for more recent numbers, and find where NL ranks now!)

By the way, Turkey might be an untapped EV market with $10/gal gasoline!
Turkey prepares for arrival of electric vehicle - media.renault.com (http://www.media.renault.com/global/en-gb/alliance/Media/ShortNews.aspx?mediaid=30376)
Mall opens electric vehicle charge station - Hurriyet Daily News (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=shopping-mall-offers-charger-for-vehicles-found-nowhere-2010-11-29)
Turkey to be a production base for electric cars (http://www.invest.gov.tr/en-US/infocenter/news/Pages/turkey.electric.car.production.base.aspx)

[raymond]

We are number #3... $9.12 per gallon!

When I ask Google for help (1.661 eur per liter in usd per gallon) I get US$8.36 per gallon. See, gas is really cheap over here! :frown:

[dhrivnak]

I am curious as our local gasoiline prices are now down to $3.04 in late November here in NE Tennessee. But with oil prices hovering near $100/barrel I am surprised to see gaoline this low. Are other areas seeing a drop? I would think gasoline would be rising slightly not dropping.

[TEG]

Gas Price Historical Price Charts - GasBuddy.com (http://www.gasbuddy.com/gb_retail_price_chart.aspx?time=24)
http://66.70.86.64/ChartServer/ch.gaschart?Country=Canada&Crude=f&Period=3&Areas=USA%20Average,,&Unit=US%20$/G

[VolkerP]

that's because of the ten thousands of LEAFs and Volts now scurrying the streets...

[TEG]

Because of reduced usage, or because of fear that high gas prices will validate them? (Or are you being sarcastic?)
If the former, I would doubt it as the # of LEAFs + other EVs are just a "drop in the bucket". (Based on #s of vehicles, Prius effeciency counts for more overall reduction)

There seems to be some sense that prices are not so much driven directly by supply and demand, but rather political and market speculation forces.

Possibly some factors:
#1: Powers that be trying to keep them artificially low to keep our stagnating economy from totally collapsing.
#2: Oil industry trying to make sure we keep using lots of their product and they sell based on what people are willing to tolerate without running to alternatives.

I think it is well acknowledged that the business plan for sales of cars like the LEAF to grow will depend on gas prices going up.
Nissan isn't ready to handle more demand until their new factories (like in Tennessee) come online. So, lower gas prices now aren't going to stop the LEAF (and Model S for that matter.) But I think in say 2-5 years it is assumed that gas prices will rise and add more interest to purchasing those types of cars.

[richkae]

Look at this:
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (http://www.eia.gov/oog/info/gdu/gasdiesel.asp)

A couple things to notice.
Gasoline prices have dropped, but diesel prices are up dramatically.
They come from the same crude oil source and the price of oil is up.
It seems to me that the oil companies are reducing their profit margin on gasoline and making up for it on the diesel.
Will this be a short term thing or a long term thing? Consumer gasoline demand is probably more elastic than the industrial diesel demand, so they are trying to keep consumer demand up.

Also notice the infographic where it shows that 69% of the price of gasoline is crude oil, and 62% of the diesel price is crude oil.
The distribution, marketing and refining cost is shown as higher for diesel. That seems bogus - I wish I had old versions of this data archived.
I think that is accounting games from the oil companies putting more of the costs into diesel to justify its higher price.

[richkae]

3513

TEG, the chart from gasbuddy is super interesting when you overlay the crude oil price. Look at the recent weird disparity of gasoline vs crude oil price... which is why I looked at diesel.

[Robert.Boston]

Some good sources to follow for insights on the oil/gasoline market:
API Pump Update (http://www.api.org/aboutoilgas/gasoline/upload/PumpPriceUpdate.pdf)
U.S. Energy Information Administration's Short Term Energy Outlook (http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/)

There's been some interesting stuff going on with WTI, as one of the big pipelines that historically moves oil to the WTI pricing point (Cushing) is being reversed to drain oil out of Cushing and bring it down to the Gulf Coast refineries. This apparently small move had global implications for oil prices and, in particular, the WTI/Brent basis differential. I'm not a gasoline expert, but that could have something to do with it.

Also, remember that there is seasonality in refined product prices (gasoline prices are higher in summer) and that refiners crack a barrel of crude into components based on forecast seasonal demand. They may simply have gotten the forecast demand mix wrong, made too much gasoline and too little diesel.

[TEG]

This is interesting too:

HowStuffWorks : Gas Prices (http://auto.howstuffworks.com/fuel-efficiency/fuel-consumption/gas-price.htm)

[raymond]

There seems to be some sense that prices are not so much driven directly by supply and demand, but rather political and market speculation forces.

Being amazed everyday by the European political arena I wonder what's left of political forces or indeed if there ever have been any.

My observation: when people expect oil prices to rice, the market buys oil futures. Sometimes with good reasons - an airline company can do this as insurance against spikes in oil prices - sometimes with nothing but speculative motives. No matter how: this drives up prices and prices rise.

When people expect oil prices to fall the reverse takes place and prices do fall.

To those in the know: There must be a name for this. Anyone? Anyone?

There may be some residual supply/demand thing at work in the background but the big price driver seems to be something not quite unlike a mind game. A very big mind game, mind you!

[VolkerP]

TEG, you caught me again :biggrin:
I am aware that even one million EVs will make a little dent in US oil demand.

I think it is allowed to use some brain-damaged argumentation against brain-damaged EV haters. "You want low fuel prices? Make the Govt pay for lots of EVs for all the celebs, and leave the gas for the working classes!"

[Robert.Boston]

I think it is allowed to use some brain-damaged argumentation against brain-damaged EV haters. "You want low fuel prices? Make the Govt pay for lots of EVs for all the celebs, and leave the gas for the working classes!"
:smile:
Sadly, this is exactly how I convinced the Massachusetts utility commission to approve the Cape Wind contracts -- the above-market cost of the contracts was more than outweighed by the reduction in market prices for all the other power sold in the wholesale market (adding 468 MW of $0-bid energy does that. Really.).

[SByer]

:smile:
Sadly, this is exactly how I convinced the Massachusetts utility commission to approve the Cape Wind contracts -- the above-market cost of the contracts was more than outweighed by the reduction in market prices for all the other power sold in the wholesale market (adding 468 MW of $0-bid energy does that. Really.).

Sadly? How is that sad? Seems like a win-win to me. More renewable power and reducing the profits of subsidized dirty power.

[Robert.Boston]

Because my usual clients are the guys who own fossil-fired power plants. ;-) In truth, what I told the Commission was that most of the consumer benefit was directly reducing profits of generation owners; as an economist, I can't tell the Commission whether that transfer is a good thing or bad, but as policymakers, they certainly can make that call.

The subsidies on gas-fired generation are, on a per-WHh basis, not very high. We even have a carbon tax here in New England, further removing distortions from unpriced negative output (pollution).

[Robert.Boston]

An interesting news bit, which is good news for EVs:

12:01 PM Gulf Oil CEO Joe Petrowski warns (video (http://www.cnbc.com/id/45857237)) drivers that gas prices are heading higher, as he sees $3.50/gallon shortly and $4.00/gallon if an event occurs in the Strait of Hormuz. He calls out the $3.80/gallon mark as the level where consumers start to pull back on spending.

[widodh]

We (NL) broke our record. We are currently at EUR 1,757 per Liter, that is USD 8,46 per gallon.

Again, ship me my Model S :-)

[dpeilow]

Diesel or petrol?

[Adm]

That's petrol. Diesel is at about €1,43 or $6.70.

[PV4EV]

Was in London at weekend, went in family car loaded with baby gear.

Drove onto a forecourt in central London for petrol and noticed ordinary unleaded was whopping £1.44 litre = £6.53 / UK gallon = $10.20 ! And if that wasn’t shocking enough, I then noticed Diesel at the same place was £1.52 Lt = £ 6.90 / Uk gallon = $10.76. I then drove straight back out without filling up, and used the vapour in the tank to get to a more reasonable fill up place on the way back home saving about £15. Its just hard to get over that a fill up is now over £100 / $156 per tank ... Thats more than the purchase cost of my first complete car (well, almost complete) when I was a student ...

That £15 saving is the equivalent of about 7 full charges on the Tesla, or in other words 1,000+ miles worth of electricity. Another way of looking at this is to realise that a full tank of petrol now costs almost as much as an entire years worth of charging the Tesla ...

I hope people in USA look at these UK petrol figures and take on board just how ridiculous this is by comparison with your expensive $4 / gallon !!!


Bring on Model X.

[jkirkebo]

We (NL) broke our record. We are currently at EUR 1,757 per Liter, that is USD 8,46 per gallon.

Again, ship me my Model S :-)

USD 9,27 per US gallon here in Norway today. Diesel is a little cheaper at 8,99.

[VolkerP]

In Germany prices are stable around 1.44€/L diesel 1.50€/L gasoline 1.55€/L premium. That's 6.93, 7.22, and 7.46 US$/ US gallon, resp. A friend of mine noted that it now takes €100 to fill up his VW Passat diesel. I answered that round figures help calculating how often to gas up until you've spent the purchase price again in petrol! Appears to be 300 times, or 6 years.

[Dragon]

We (NL) broke our record. We are currently at EUR 1,757 per Liter, that is USD 8,46 per gallon.

Again, ship me my Model S :-)

Italy is better. 1,76 € per liter.

[Robert.Boston]

I caught an interesting piece on CNN this morning; their web summary (http://money.cnn.com/news/storysupplement/economy/gas_prices_by_state/) gives the gist. The really interesting thing about the piece is not merely that it shows the price of gasoline, but also percent of income of average gas purchases by state. These were really shocking: California, 9%; Florida, 10%; Texas, 11%. This is a LOT of money!

[dpeilow]

Petrol prices rise again even as demand falls | Money | The Guardian (http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2012/jan/18/petrol-prices-rise-demand-falls?cat=money&type=article)

[kgb]

I hope people in USA look at these UK petrol figures and take on board just how ridiculous this is by comparison with your expensive $4 / gallon !!!

WOW! $4/gal, that would be expensive!!! I can get gas around the corner for $2.94/gal USD. EV's will never take off with gas so cheap!

That's 0.61 Euro/litre for those on the other side of the Atlantic.

[Lloyd]

Thats in Houston, The CHEAPEST gas in this area of California is now. $3.85 regular/gal!

[AndrewBissell]

Falling demand driving rising prices? Brilliant news for the planet

[dpeilow]

Obscene Petrol Prices T Shirt by CharGrilled (http://www.chargrilled.co.uk/t-shirts/Obscene%2DPetrol%2DPrices-t-shirt.m)

http://www.chargrilled.co.uk/t-shirts/prodimages/imagegen.ashx?vpimageid=2491&tstyle=m&tsize=medium&tcolour=Navy&tx=0&ty=7&tw=22&tb=True

[Lloyd]

Falling demand driving rising prices? Brilliant news for the planet

I would like to believe that it is actually the other way around: Rising prices driving falling demand.

[AndrewBissell]

If you read the article David linked the assertion is that it's the falling demand that is driving prices up - under-used refineries presumably needing to cover overheads drive up the unit price.

[Lloyd]

Sorry, my fault... I didn't read the full article..... Just applying Econ 101 from a long time ago!!

[jaanton]

Isn't this where you get a price vs demand curve and a price vs supply/production curve and where these two intersect maximizes revenue? It's really a big multi-variable optimization.

[Robert.Boston]

Isn't this where you get a price vs demand curve and a price vs supply/production curve and where these two intersect maximizes revenue? It's really a big multi-variable optimization.
Unless the demand for gasoline has shifted (i.e., independent of the price, people now want to buy more gasoline -- because, e.g. they now have a job and drive to work), the only way that you get decreased demand and increased price is to have a downward sloping supply curve. That, in turn, only happens in a non-competitive industry where companies can price in fixed costs. Gee, did I just conclude that the oil industry might be less than fully competitive?

[Larry Chanin]

Here's Gasbuddy.com's Gasoline Forecast for 2012 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/78052696/Gasoline-Forecast-Media).

They are forecasting near $5/gal for some U.S. cities for Memorial Day.

Larry

[VolkerP]

Here's Gasbuddy.com's Gasoline Forecast for 2012 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/78052696/Gasoline-Forecast-Media).

They are forecasting near $5/gal for some U.S. cities for Memorial Day.

Larry

It appears to me that media reports in US don't address anything that has impact on every day's life and is FARTHER than 6 months away. Another example is 1 million EVs on the road by 2015 - what does that to me?
OK here is my prediction. US will see $6/gal in more than 25% of all cities before EOY. If $5 is a concern $6 is a shock? Not really. You will see $8/gal before 2014 ends.

[Robert.Boston]

Here's Gasbuddy.com's Gasoline Forecast for 2012 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/78052696/Gasoline-Forecast-Media).
Great quote from this article:

“Motorists who drive a SUV may want to consider calling their banking institution and obtain a credit limit increase so they can afford this summer’s fuel expenses.”

[Larry Chanin]

It appears to me that media reports in US don't address anything that has impact on every day's life and is FARTHER than 6 months away. Another example is 1 million EVs on the road by 2015 - what does that to me?
OK here is my prediction. US will see $6/gal in more than 25% of all cities before EOY. If $5 is a concern $6 is a shock? Not really. You will see $8/gal before 2014 ends.

Hi Volker,

Thanks for your prediction, but I'm not sure I follow your remarks with regard to the prediction I referenced. It goes out to the end of the year. It show it peaking at near $5/gal by Memorial Day for some mainland cities. I am of the opinion that $5/gal prices will represent a real impact on daily life of most folks and that long range predictions, while nice to have, are not as compelling as going to the local gas station and paying $5/gal. :wink:

Larry

[Robert.Boston]

The $5 by Memorial Day will coincide neatly with initial test drives of the Model S. Take a friend!

[Larry Chanin]

The $5 by Memorial Day will coincide neatly with initial test drives of the Model S. Take a friend!

Hi Robert,

Yes, there will be another media bump at that time and Elon will get some free advertising again. During those interviews I'm sure he will revise his cost of gas comparisons to reflect the new realities of pricing.

Larry

[Larry Chanin]

Here's an insightful article by Fareed Zakaria that was referenced in the "Investing" thread.

Zakaria: Why oil prices will stay high (http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/15/zakaria-why-oil-prices-will-stay-high/)



I saw some striking numbers this week: Look at the "break-even" costs for the world's top oil producers. That is the minimum price at which these countries need to sell oil so that they can balance their budgets.

Russia now needs oil at $110 a barrel to manage its finances. For Iraq, the number is $100. Even Saudi Arabia now needs oil to trade around $80 a barrel just to balance its budgets. The numbers are also high for Algeria, Qatar, and Oman. Only a decade ago Saudi Arabia was able to balance its budget with oil prices averaging around $25 a barrel.

So now it is in these countries' interest to keep oil prices high, which they do by curtailing supply in one way or the other. This is perhaps the most lasting impact of the year of global protest: High oil prices.

[Lloyd]

Interesting, I had dinner with a friend in the oil production business last night and was discussing prices. Locally here in Central California we produce a really heavy oil that in the past was selling for almost nothing $5 to $10 per barrel as there is not much in the way of distalates in this oil here. It is typically used for road tar, and such. Anyway, he is getting brent crude prices now at $100 per barrel for this oil, and he expects it to go up. The state has been buying lots of asphault here and created a shortage of what is produced here.

[Mycroft]

I wonder if 2012 will be the year that breaks the back of cheap gas. I'll feel really bad for fuel oil users, but it should bode well for TSLA owners in 2013+.

[Robert.Boston]

Which raises an interesting, long-term question, Lloyd: if the demand for gasoline goes down as EVs take an increasing slice of the market, how will this change the relative values of different crudes? I'm being optimistic, though; with growing auto demand in developing nations, the world demand for gasoline is only going up.

[Mycroft]

with growing auto demand in developing nations, the world demand for gasoline is only going up.

EVs are a drop in the bucket compared to that. Also, transportation costs related to the goods we buy, and most of the goods themselves, are tied directly to oil prices. We have a LONG way to go before we're weaned from the oil spigot, but we have to start somewhere.

[Lloyd]

Which raises an interesting, long-term question, Lloyd: if the demand for gasoline goes down as EVs take an increasing slice of the market, how will this change the relative values of different crudes? I'm being optimistic, though; with growing auto demand in developing nations, the world demand for gasoline is only going up.

It's going to take a while for EV's to have an effect on world oil markets. They are going to have to produce some serious numbers first. Wiki says there are over 1 billion gas cars in the world, and cars use only about 1/3 of the oil production. EV's have more of a political statement, and have more of an effect just because there is an alternative to oil other than a bicycle!

[Robert.Boston]

Hah! I never drew a comparison in my mind between a bicycle and a Model S! As a former bicycle-commuter, I guess I'm currently at my personal "peak oil" point.

[neroden]

Interesting, I had dinner with a friend in the oil production business last night and was discussing prices. Locally here in Central California we produce a really heavy oil that in the past was selling for almost nothing $5 to $10 per barrel as there is not much in the way of distalates in this oil here. It is typically used for road tar, and such. Anyway, he is getting brent crude prices now at $100 per barrel for this oil, and he expects it to go up. The state has been buying lots of asphault here and created a shortage of what is produced here.

My goodness. I always figured asphalt pricing was not going to drive the crude oil market for decades, since asphalt is basically a byproduct of gas/diesel refining... but the future is here, apparently.

[neroden]

Unless the demand for gasoline has shifted (i.e., independent of the price, people now want to buy more gasoline -- because, e.g. they now have a job and drive to work), the only way that you get decreased demand and increased price is to have a downward sloping supply curve. That, in turn, only happens in a non-competitive industry where companies can price in fixed costs. Gee, did I just conclude that the oil industry might be less than fully competitive?

Heh! Thank you very much! I think we have external structural evidence for that assertion. The cartel of majors, the state-owned companies covering most of the rest of the world, the cartel of oil states... it's startlingly noncompetitive for something with extremely commodity features.

[neroden]

Being amazed everyday by the European political arena I wonder what's left of political forces or indeed if there ever have been any.

My observation: when people expect oil prices to rice, the market buys oil futures. Sometimes with good reasons - an airline company can do this as insurance against spikes in oil prices - sometimes with nothing but speculative motives. No matter how: this drives up prices and prices rise.

When people expect oil prices to fall the reverse takes place and prices do fall.

To those in the know: There must be a name for this. Anyone? Anyone?
Soros, in this economic context, calls it "Reflexivity". It's also called "self-fulfilling prophecy". The resulting pattern is known as a "boom-bust cycle".

This sort of stuff drives economies. Supply and demand stuff happens, but the key thing they don't tell you in economics classes is that you are *never* at equilibrium, and you can move further away from equilibrium for *years* or *decades* before the "fundamentals" kick back in.

[VolkerP]

From Phil LeBeau's Behind The Wheel - CNBC (http://www.cnbc.com/id/46101377)

the primary driver of electric car sales remains the price of gas

I am sorry, but - basing ICE vehicle purchase decision on the current price of gasoline is as dumb as not buying an umbrella if it is dry weather in the morning in Wales.

[Larry Chanin]

From Phil LeBeau's Behind The Wheel - CNBC (http://www.cnbc.com/id/46101377)


I am sorry, but - basing ICE vehicle purchase decision on the current price of gasoline is as dumb as not buying an umbrella if it is dry weather in the morning in Wales.

Hi Volker,

Thanks for the interesting link.

I'm not sure I fully appreciate your analogy. Perhaps the author did over simplify the hurdles to EV adoption, but clearly if consumers have an economical alternative to expensive gasoline this will be an important factor in the buying decision. I think that Tesla has started to change the other major impediment to EV adoption, that is, the mindset that driving an electric vehicle can't be a compelling experience.

Larry

[Mycroft]

I think Volker is saying that just like it is sure to rain in Wales and thus an umbrella should be purchased, the price of gas is sure to go higher.

I think the petrol industry is hoping to slowly increase the price. So folks who purchase gas will be like the frog in the pot of water on the stove. It's when there is a dramatic price increase, like the last time it went over $4, that people freak out. If Iran closes the straight of Hormuz, then we're likely to see such a spike soon.

[Larry Chanin]

I think Volker is saying that just like it is sure to rain in Wales and thus an umbrella should be purchased, the price of gas is sure to go higher.

I think the petrol industry is hoping to slowly increase the price. So folks who purchase gas will be like the frog in the pot of water on the stove. It's when there is a dramatic price increase, like the last time it went over $4, that people freak out. If Iran closes the straight of Hormuz, then we're likely to see such a spike soon.

Hi Mycroft,

Thanks.

There of course is an inevitability in play here. Battery performance and costs are coming down while gasoline prices continue to increase. As the cost curves continue to diverge with time, all things being equal, EV adoption will increase.

But...Tesla is designing and engineering cars where all things are not equal. Their electric cars are superior to ICE vehicles in almost all aspects. Soon the average consumer will be afflicted with the same malady as we early adopters. That is, they will lust after a car because the way it looks and rides and use economic justifications to rationalize the purchase. The only difference will be that with the passage of time their justifications will be firmly anchored in undeniable facts, unlike our dubious economic justifications for buying a $100,000 car. :wink: :redface:

Larry

[VolkerP]

well said. Let's hope that the road to that point is a smooth one. No twists and turns that stir another global crisis (BTW what was the last year without a crisis? 1911?)

[neroden]

well said. Let's hope that the road to that point is a smooth one. No twists and turns that stir another global crisis (BTW what was the last year without a crisis? 1911?)

There's never a year without a crisis. The question is whether the crisis is "global". There have been lots of years without global crises. But *somewhere* in the world there was a crisis, every year. We have mostly forgotten about the crises of the 19th and early 20th century in Asia and Africa and South America. The locals haven't forgotten.

[dpeilow]

BBC News - Iran (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17089953)

BBC News - Price of diesel (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-17072925)

[Norbert]

By the way, average gas prices (in the US for regular gasoline) have steadily increased from about $3.22 in December (a low point) to $3.52 today.

[widodh]

By the way, average gas prices (in the US for regular gasoline) have steadily increased from about $3.22 in December (a low point) to $3.52 today.It's going up here really fast as well.

We are currently at EUR 1,80 per liter. That's about $9,00 per gallon.

Since all the issues in Iran and Syria the prices heavy been increasing really fast.

[dpeilow]

After all the campaigning and hooha before Christmas when the government dropped the tax on petrol and diesel by a penny, we are now back up to 138p/litre for petrol and 143p/litre for diesel - an increase of around 6p in 2 months. Sooner or later the campaigners will have to face the inevitable.

[Robert.Boston]

I did a quick check on whether gas prices are up because refining margins are up, or because crude prices are up. The short answer appears to be crude. Here's the latest from the U.S. DoE's Energy Information Administration:
4372 (http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/data.cfm)

[richkae]

I made this chart of oil consumption by region from the IEA statistics up to and including 2010.
The projection after 2010 is mine, made by making a simple extrapolation from the trend of the 2000-2010 data but excluding 2009.
This is oil consumption in thousand barrels per day:
4376

The projection doesn't include any kind of "bounce back" for Europe and North America after the 2009 recession, or considerations of supply or how price would affect demand, just simple math from the 2010 point on.
The fact that Asia+Oceania passed North America in 2008 is very interesting.
The slope of the growth of consumption in the Middle East is actually very close to that of Asia+Oceania.

[drees]

FWIW - gas prices are up about $0.30/gallon here at my nearest gas station from around $3.85 - $4.15 in the last 2 weeks here.

[Ardie]

Ditto that.

Prices here in Orange County, Calif. are tickling the $4.00/gallon barrier (again). I paid $3.93/gallon this morning, and could have paid $4.13 if I had to get premium.
I don't expect it to go down. It may burble a bit around $4.00/gal over the next few weeks, but the annual price increase of Memorial Day Weekend will ensure that it leaves $3.99/gallon in the dust.

I am *so* ready for an electric car.

-- Ardie

[eledille]

Gasoline prices have dropped, but diesel prices are up dramatically.
They come from the same crude oil source and the price of oil is up.
It seems to me that the oil companies are reducing their profit margin on gasoline and making up for it on the diesel.

I read somewhere that due to lower consumption and lower fuel prices, diesel engines have been so popular in Europe for several years that refinery capacity for diesel has become constrained. I don't know if that is correct or not.

What I do know is that we have saved so much money driving an EV for five years that I can't stop smiling whenever I think about it. Right now I save $17 per day just in fuel and toll.

[Lloyd]

More so I believe because air travel and consumption of Jet fuel is increasing. $4.28 premium in San Luis Obispo

[dpeilow]

BBC News - Barack Obama: No 'silver bullet' to reduce gas prices (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-17149601?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter)

[dpeilow]

Soaring oil prices will dwarf the Greek drama - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/9105796/Soaring-oil-prices-will-dwarf-the-Greek-drama.html)

[dpeilow]

Oil Prices at Six-Month High, Long-term Outlook Highly Uncertain - IEEE Spectrum (http://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/fossil-fuels/oil-prices-at-sixmonth-high-longterm-outlook-highly-uncertain)


Espousing exactly the opposite point of view, a senior policy expert at London's Kings College has said that oil prices are much more likely to fall than rise, starting this year. In the Financial Times on January 17, Nick Butler wrote that*oil supplies are plentiful, with surplus capacity running at more than 4 million barrels per day (mbpd) and set to rise to 8 mbpd by 2016. "High prices over the past five years have encouraged new developments across the world and given new life to established fields." Meanwhile, though demand in China continues to rise sharply, it is down significantly in the United States, Europe, and Japan. The IEA, says Butler, has sliced its 2030 global demand estimate from 130 mbpd to barely 100 mbpd.

[widodh]

Filled up the M5 yesterday. 60L of Euro 98 at 1.86 per liter.. 111.60 EURO for a full tank. That's not funny anymore :(

The prices here seem to stabilize a bit, they keep hovering around 1.80 for EURO 95 and 1.86 for EURO 98.

[NigelM]

That's $9.46 a gallon! But is it true that in the Netherlands 69% of the fuel price you pay is tax (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_tax#Netherlands)?

[PV4EV]

That's $9.46 a gallon! But is it true that in the Netherlands 69% of the fuel price you pay is tax (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_tax#Netherlands)?



… not forgetting that the taxes on petrol represent excessive double-taxation because we buy it with what's left over after all sorts of income taxes have been removed. So, whilst the UK has petrol at the exceptionally high price of around £6.50 a UK gallon / US $10.30, the average bloke in the street has to earn something like £11+ / US $18+ to be able to buy just one gallon of the stuff.

My old ICE car did about 18mpg, so thats almost $1 per mile in gas alone.

Taxes on the individuals include Income tax, National insurance tax, VAT tax, fuel taxes, poll tax, stamp duty tax, insurance premium taxes, smoking tax, vehicle tax, spirit tax, customs tax, air travel tax, betting tax, landfill tax, climate levy tax and probably loads more. And when you depart the planet theres death tax and inheritance tax on anything left.

Roughly 25% of the working age population in the UK works for the government administering taxes, another 25% are unemployed or on some sort of benefit or hand out, and the remaining 50% are busy trying to earn enough to keep the other half afloat. Utterly ridiculous basically.


<rant over>

[widodh]

That's $9.46 a gallon! But is it true that in the Netherlands 69% of the fuel price you pay is tax (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_tax#Netherlands)?Yes, that is true.

The EUR 1.80 we pay for a liter is about 1 euro of taxes. Not forgetting that there is also 19% VAT here and 42% income tax.

I just drove along the gas station and saw that EURO 95 is back to 1.75 now, still very high.

[EVNow]

4372 (http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/data.cfm)
LOL. Given all the volatality of the past - somehow EIA still comes up with a peaceful forecast. EIA (and IEA) needs to wakeup from their dream.

The viscious cycle of oil prices & economy is predicted by the noted economist Jeff Rubin in his book "Jeff Rubin: Peak Oil Will Make Our World A Whole Lot Smaller".

Jeff Rubin: Peak Oil Will Make Our World A Whole Lot Smaller : TreeHugger (http://www.treehugger.com/culture/jeff-rubin-peak-oil-will-make-our-world-a-whole-lot-smaller.html)

We can see this cycle already ...

1. Higher price of oil causes economic stress leading to recession (2008)
2. Recession lowers demand causing the oil price to plummet (2009)
3. The economy slowly recovers (2010-12)
4. Recovering economy increases oil demand (2011-?)
5. More oil demand increases oil price. (2011-?)
6. Back to step 1 (?)

This will also result in a lot of political instability - both at home and internationally.

[Steph]

LOL. Given all the volatality of the past - somehow EIA still comes up with a peaceful forecast. EIA (and IEA) needs to wakeup from their dream.

The viscious cycle of oil prices & economy is predicted by the noted economist Jeff Rubin in his book "Jeff Rubin: Peak Oil Will Make Our World A Whole Lot Smaller".

Jeff Rubin: Peak Oil Will Make Our World A Whole Lot Smaller : TreeHugger (http://www.treehugger.com/culture/jeff-rubin-peak-oil-will-make-our-world-a-whole-lot-smaller.html)

We can see this cycle already ...

1. Higher price of oil causes economic stress leading to recession (2008)
2. Recession lowers demand causing the oil price to plummet (2009)
3. The economy slowly recovers (2010-12)
4. Recovering economy increases oil demand (2011-?)
5. More oil demand increases oil price. (2011-?)
6. Back to step 1 (?)

This will also result in a lot of political instability - both at home and internationally.

I think this time is different. We will not go back to step 1 .

High price of oil will create a demand for electric vehicles, stimulating consumption, lowering US trade deficit and creating lots and lots of jobs.

[Steph]

Price of fuel here today is $1.44 CAD/liter (5.44/gallon)

[Robert.Boston]

A colleague asked whether, if EVs really took off, they could affect natural gas or gasoline prices. Here was my analysis:

In the U.S., the average passenger vehicle is driven about 12,500/year. At about 300W/mile for an EV, that’s 3.75MWh/vehicle-year, generated using 30 MMBtu/year of gas (at, say, an 8000 heat rate, and assuming that every vehicle charges exclusively with gas).

Suppose the President’s vision of 1,000,000 EVs comes to pass. That’s 30 Bcf of gas annually to charge = 2.5 Bcf/month. U.S. production is running at about 2,000 Bcf/month.

So, with a 0.125% increase in NG demand, EVs are not going to be much of an influence in moving natural gas prices towards the world average.

These same cars, if they replaced automobiles with a fleet average mileage (21.5mpg) would displace 13.8 million barrels of gasoline annually, or 38,000 barrels/day. The U.S. refines about 18.2 million barrels/day of gasoline, so the EV savings is only 0.4% of the total. This is still very small, but still about 3x greater percentage impact.

[vfx]

...So, with a 0.125% increase in NG demand, EVs are not going to be much of an influence in moving natural gas prices towards the world average.... The U.S. refines about 18.2 million barrels/day of gasoline, so the EV savings is only 0.4% of the total. This is still very small, but still about 3x greater percentage impact.

Interesting that similarly, electricity used to drive an EV is 3 to 5 times cheaper than gasoline.

[zack]

I can fully recharge my Roadster for about $7 in Minnesota, conservatively. (After all taxes my electric bill ends up at $0.12 per kWh.) Filling a 16 gallon Porsche 911 at $4/gal will cost $64, which is 9 times as much, and the range at the EPA rated 16 mpg (city) will be 256 miles. 8^D

[bolosky]

The funny thing is that I didn't even realize that gas prices have gone up.

I just stopped looking at them when I got the Roadster. It's true that I do have a Pathfinder that I have to fill up every few months, but it just doesn't matter that much.

[SByer]

I keep having to resist the urge to cheer.

[Tommy]

Interesting that similarly, electricity used to drive an EV is 3 to 5 times cheaper than gasoline.

vfx, where I live using electricity to drive is cheaper because of the efficiency of the EV is so much greater than an ICE not because electricity is cheaper than gasoline. Case in point, my lowest electrical rate is about 15 cents a kWh; there are about 33.5 kWh in a gallon of gasoline, so on an energy equivalent basis my cost for a "gallon" of electricity is about $5 dollars (15 x 33.5).

Not disputing what you said, just expanding on your point that even in an area where electricity is on par or more expensive than gasoline, owning an EV one still comes out ahead on fuel costs.

[Todd Burch]

I keep having to resist the urge to cheer.

Me too. My wife tells me to keep it to myself so I don't get mugged.

[Norbert]

vfx, where I live using electricity to drive is cheaper because of the efficiency of the EV is so much greater than an ICE not because electricity is cheaper than gasoline. Case in point, my lowest electrical rate is about 15 cents a kWh; there are about 33.5 kWh in a gallon of gasoline, so on an energy equivalent basis my cost for a "gallon" of electricity is about $5 dollars (15 x 33.5).

Not disputing what you said, just expanding on your point that even in an area where electricity is on par or more expensive than gasoline, owning an EV one still comes out ahead on fuel costs.

Not sure what you are trying to say.... but makes me want to point out that an EV goes more than 100 miles with 33.5 kWh, whereas the average ICE on the road only gets 20 miles out of one gallon.

[Tommy]

Not sure what you are trying to say.... but makes me want to point out that an EV goes more than 100 miles with 33.5 kWh, whereas the average ICE on the road only gets 20 miles out of one gallon.

That was EXACTLY my point. I don't always put in words my entire line of reasoning; perhaps being lazy on my part. To my point: I state "the efficiency of the EV is so much greater than an ICE..." While I did not give the specifics of the efficiency, I had hoped that line would inform the reader enough to draw the proper conclusions. Sorry I wasn't clear.

[roblab]

Not sure what you are trying to say.... but makes me want to point out that an EV goes more than 100 miles with 33.5 kWh, whereas the average ICE on the road only gets 20 miles out of one gallon.

That's odd. I have heard anywhere from 27 kWh to, today looking at Wiki, 36.6 kWh per gallon of gasoline. How would one actually know? And are they using different gallons, or blends? I know diesel is more energy dense. I don't get it.

[EVNow]

I think this time is different. We will not go back to step 1 .

High price of oil will create a demand for electric vehicles, stimulating consumption, lowering US trade deficit and creating lots and lots of jobs.
EVs are just noise in the larger scheme. The maximum EV production capacity is too low to make a difference - even if large # of people want to buy. Ofcourse, by the time the industry reacts to increase capacity we would have moved to the next step of falling gas prices - that reduces EV demand.

This is the reason I prefer to have floor of gas prices. This creates a predictable environment that helps investment decisions.

What will happen is higher demand for Prius & other high mpg cars. In Feb - for the first time (IIRC) - Prius came in at #12. Better than Chevy Cruze. That was a 57% increase year-over-year.

[dpeilow]

BBC News - Petrol price hits record high (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17231140)

BBC News - School run supercars (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16869432)

[Steph]

EVs are just noise in the larger scheme. The maximum EV production capacity is too low to make a difference - even if large # of people want to buy. Ofcourse, by the time the industry reacts to increase capacity we would have moved to the next step of falling gas prices - that reduces EV demand.

This is the reason I prefer to have floor of gas prices. This creates a predictable environment that helps investment decisions.

What will happen is higher demand for Prius & other high mpg cars. In Feb - for the first time (IIRC) - Prius came in at #12. Better than Chevy Cruze. That was a 57% increase year-over-year.
When alternatives become cheaper, things can go very quickly.

A good example of that behavior is the "rare earth" crisis. When price of the rare earth metals went to the moon, most electric motor manufacturers changed their product to use less or no rare earth metal at all. The change was very fast and rare earth price are back to earth. But the change will be permanent.

Same thing will happens with EVs. When price of oil becomes the talk of the town, people will also move the conversation to alternatives, then act on it.

[Norbert]

That's odd. I have heard anywhere from 27 kWh to, today looking at Wiki, 36.6 kWh per gallon of gasoline. How would one actually know? And are they using different gallons, or blends? I know diesel is more energy dense. I don't get it.

The number used most is 33.7 kWh which EPA states is the equivalent for 1 gallon of gasoline. Not sure about the differences, and so far couldn't find where the Wiki number of 36.6 comes from.

[Norbert]

That was EXACTLY my point. I don't always put in words my entire line of reasoning; perhaps being lazy on my part. To my point: I state "the efficiency of the EV is so much greater than an ICE..." While I did not give the specifics of the efficiency, I had hoped that line would inform the reader enough to draw the proper conclusions. Sorry I wasn't clear.

Ah, yes, per energy equivalent the prices are in the same range roughly. (vfx probably knows that.) However the inefficiency in producing electricity means that the fossil resources used, are cheaper than gasoline (on average). But then, the difference to crude oil is smaller.

[dpeilow]

Diesel prices predicted to reach 150p as petrol hits new record | Money | guardian.co.uk (http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2012/mar/02/diesel-prices-150p-petrol?CMP=twt_fd)

[Robert.Boston]

Next time you hear someone say, "the way to bring gasoline prices down in the U.S. is for us to drill more!", show them this chart, lifted from testimony given yesterday (Mar 8,2012) by Michael Conathan (http://www.americanprogressaction.org/issues/2012/03/conathan_testimony.html) before a House subcommittee:
http://www.americanprogressaction.org/issues/2012/03/img/conathan_testimony_chart1.jpg

[Lloyd]

This graph shows me a relatively stable price despite increasing demand over the same period. The only way to lower the price of gas is to decrease the use and demand world wide.

[ElSupreme]

This graph shows me a relatively stable price despite increasing demand over the same period. The only way to lower the price of gas is to decrease the use and demand world wide.

Just under $2.00 a gallon in 2008, to just under $4.00 a gallon is roughly a 85% increase (and it was over a 100% increase for a while). I would hardly call that stable. And I know number of rigs has no indication on production volume, but 400 rigs to 1,200 rigs over the same period means more production.

I realize that increasing demand is what is driving the cost up. But this is pretty evident that increased production /= lower cost gasoline. But to say a price that increased 100% over a couple year period stable? It is a stretch. Hell I filled up for 89¢ a gallon in 2000.

[Lloyd]

Look more closely at the graph. It starts at 2.60 and ends at 3.70 with extensions above and below. Over that time frame factor in the decrease in the value of the dollar, add some inflation, and you have a stable price. There was some Government manipulation also. In 2007 if I remember correctly we were replenishing the Strategic Oil Reserve which contributed to some of the increase. My point is that it is that other factors have a bigger effect than the price of the fuel relative to other commodities.

This graph did not show production, just rigs operating. Rigs over time have lower production and more operating /= more production!

[Norbert]

By the way, average gas prices (in the US for regular gasoline) have steadily increased from about $3.22 in December (a low point) to $3.52 today.

That was Feb. 19 th. Today US regular gasoline price is now above $3.72. (Slowed down in the last few days, though.)

[drees]

Look more closely at the graph. It starts at 2.60 and ends at 3.70 with extensions above and below. Over that time frame factor in the decrease in the value of the dollar, add some inflation, and you have a stable price.
I'm sorry - 50-100% swings in price simply do not equal "stable price" - even if the start and end of the chart are similar.

My point is that it is that other factors have a bigger effect than the price of the fuel relative to other commodities.


This graph did not show production, just rigs operating. Rigs over time have lower production and more operating /= more production!
If you overlaid production with the graph, you'd see that production has risen with active rig count. Low oil prices means that oil companies have extra incentive to shut down low producing, high cost rigs which is why rig count dropped sharply shorter after oil prices plummeted.

This site has a pretty good chart of USA oil production with similar time frame to the above chart: The Oilman in the White House (http://www.consumerenergyreport.com/2012/01/06/the-oilman-in-the-white-house/)

[fraccy]

The unit of account is changing a great deal. Wouldn't comparison to wages be a lot more useful in terms of effect on EV interest?

[PV4EV]

Great. The UK annual budget review happened today, and amazingly, the Chancellor has announced that petrol tax is to go up by approx 14p / 20cents per gallon as of August 2012, and a UK gallon of petrol is already about £6.50 / $ 10.30 … which is kinda nuts compared to the $3.75 (or so) in the USA.

But its good news for the whole EV side of things, as this should make them even more desirable from a running costs point of view… especially if the same government is paying you to generate and use electricity from PV or other renewables.

[eledille]

10.07 USD/US gallon in Oslo today. Are fuel prices actually higher in the UK than in Norway now?

[dpeilow]

Nowhere near, we're at 8.50 USD/USG.

It's just the usual suspects who harp on about being the most expensive for fuel in Europe when in reality we are nearer to mid-table.

[Yggdrasill]

Prices do fluctuate a bit though. Yesterday it was 10.18 USD/USG, on Sunday (when I filled up), it was 9.20 USD/USG.

[dpeilow]

BBC News - Petrol prices hit another record high (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17490088)

[dpeilow]

Daily chart: Pump action | The Economist (http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/03/daily-chart-18?fsrc=gn_ep)

http://media.economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/full-width/images/2012/03/blogs/graphic-detail/20120331_WOC825.png

[widodh]

Those Americans with their cheap fuel! ;)

Nice graph btw, really sees that the people in Italy are being hit hard lately. Not only by increasing taxes, but fuel is ricing there pretty hard as well.

[dpeilow]

High gas prices? Some consumers just say no - USATODAY.com (http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/story/2012-03-28/gas-prices-how-people-cope/53869578/1?AID=4992781&PID=4176887&SID=1lp4ha6ur8gyo)

[zack]

Oil prices edging downward bodes well for U.S. economy - The Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/oil-prices-edging-downward-bodes-well-for-us-economy/2012/04/13/gIQATmi1FT_story.html)

[widodh]

Daily chart: Pump action | The Economist (http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/03/daily-chart-18?fsrc=gn_ep)

http://media.economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/full-width/images/2012/03/blogs/graphic-detail/20120331_WOC825.png
Since February the prices have been increasing here steadily.

Right now were at $2,50 for a litre, that's about $9.47 per gallon.

Analists are saying we'll hit the EUR 2.00 per litre soon.

Imho the prices can't rise high enough, for multiple reasons:
- EV's become more attractive
- People will think twice before jumping in their car

On the short-term it will indeed hurt people and businesses, but as long as fuel is cheap the behaviour of people won't change. I'm not happy either when I fill up my current car, but I have something to look forward to. Just another 10 months and I'll be released from the oil slavery!

The movement of people who buy an EV or Hybrid mainly for saving the planet is growing, but it can grow faster.

A couple of years ago you were seen as a complete lunatic or hippy if you drove a EV or Hybrid, but people are starting to accept it now.

[dpeilow]

Here's an old letter from 1929 for historic context

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/A3kUUF5CIAEu4mA.png:large

[PV4EV]

"with the car averaging 25 MPG and doing 10,000 miles a year .." ... in 1929

Seems like there's been little progress in the past 83 years !!

[widodh]

On October 1st the VAT in the Netherlands went up from 19% to 21%, so that also raised our fuel prices.

Currently:
EURO 95: €1.891
EURO 98: €1.945

Source: nu.nl | Brandstof (http://www.nu.nl/brandstof/index.html)

Going from liters and Euro's to gallons and dollars: (1 Euro = 1.3032 U.S. dollars)

1.891 * 3.74 * 1.30 = $9.19
1.945 * 3.74 * 1.30 = $9.46

In other topics like:
* How many gallons will you no longer burn? (http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/10565-How-many-gallons-will-you-no-longer-burn)
* How Would You Cope With High Gas Prices? (http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/9409-How-Would-You-Cope-With-High-Gas-Prices)

I saw that the gas prices in the US (CA only?) are currently nearing the $6 mark, that is high for the US. I remember a news article I read at a motel about 2 years ago which was telling that the US would grind to a halt if prices went over $4.

I took a trip to Amsterdam last week with the Roadster, that was 400km in total. With the Roadster it was about €11, would I have taken my Toyota Hybrid the same trip would have been €42.

[PV4EV]

Interesting that the Netherlands is now broadly similar to the UK for petrol prices.

I've just been playing with a spreadsheet to work out the approx fuel costs per mile for running an ICE car with no other costs included, and compared it to the costs of running an EV with various charging scenarios.

Makes for interesting reading !!


http://i35.photobucket.com/albums/d183/diginut/Fuelandrunningcosts-1.jpg


... and right now its a really sunny Sunday morning, so I am going to go for a cross country blast for no particular reason, and waste lots of free photons that previously fell on some silicon.

[dpeilow]

The photons previously fell on some silicon, but let's not split hairs - it's Niels Bohr's birthday afterall.

The dutch prices have been above ours for a long time, see chart above. It's interesting that some recent attitude survey, the Netherlands was lowest, just below Britain, in people saying they will consider an EV or PHEV as their next car. In fact the likelihood seemed inversely proportional to petrol prices. I will try to find a link.

[PV4EV]

The photons previously fell on some silicon, but let's not split hairs - it's Niels Bohr's birthday afterall.




Doh ! A quantum cock-up, duly corrected.

However the ionosphere is awash with electrons amongst other things. I wonder if the HAARP project has worked out how to tap into all that energy, for beneficial reasons rather than 'defense R&D' …?!

[dpeilow]

BBC News - Petrol price as retailers urge review (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21208524)

The shock...

[Lloyd]

Gas Taxes in California raised 3.5 cents. Biggest increase in history!

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2013/feb/28/gas-tax-california-rise-july/