View Full Version : Model X Advanced Engineering on Plan - Tesla Q3 Update 2011
NigelM
11-02-2011, 04:27 PM
Shareholder Letter (http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/1432383326x0xS1193125-11-292996/1318605/1193125-11-292996.pdf) news on the Model X:
We are excited about how the design and functionality of the Model X is beginning to mature. Our vision for the Model X is a vehicle
that combines the functionality of a minivan with a design as cool as an SUV. We remain on plan for an exclusive showing later this year.
Since we are leveraging the Model S architecture and powertrain for Model X, we continue to anticipate that Model X can be brought to
production quickly for first customer deliveries in late 2013, with volumes ramping to 10,000—15,000 units per year beginning in 2014,
and at prices comparable to Model S. Importantly, much of the equipment we are currently installing at the Tesla Factory for the Model S
will also be used for the Model X.
AnOutsider
11-02-2011, 04:44 PM
I'm still confused on this "exclusive showing"? Some investors? Press? Model S/Roadster owners?
Robert.Boston
11-03-2011, 06:41 AM
People with at least 1,300 posts in TMC? :biggrin:
Kevin Harney
11-03-2011, 08:06 AM
I'm still confused on this "exclusive showing"? Some investors? Press? Model S/Roadster owners?
How is this confusing ? Another reveal at the factory with press on Friday and S and Roadster owners invited over the weekend.
How is this confusing ? Another reveal at the factory with press on Friday and S and Roadster owners invited over the weekend.
You know what they say when you assume. Tesla hasn't given any real specifics yet.
Kevin Harney
11-03-2011, 08:50 AM
You know what they say when you assume. Tesla hasn't given any real specifics yet.
Well it has to be "exclusive" yet it still has to be "public" in nature. so there are not a whole lot of option for that to happen ....
Larry Chanin
11-03-2011, 10:28 AM
Well it has to be "exclusive" yet it still has to be "public" in nature. so there are not a whole lot of option for that to happen ....
Hi Kevin,
Well, the event can be exclusive and public without inviting Roadster owners and reservation holders.
Larry
Kevin Harney
11-03-2011, 12:57 PM
Hi Kevin,
Well, the event can be exclusive and public without inviting Roadster owners and reservation holders.
Larry
True but why in the world would you not want to invite them. Makes them feel special and also makes the event look much more popular to the public. Why not capitalize on the GREAT success of the last one ? Just makes plain sense. But you are correct I am assuming they would repeat a sucessful event.
NigelM
11-03-2011, 01:08 PM
True but why in the world would you not want to invite them.
I can think of several reasons, and someone else can probably think of more (or argue the opposite!). In no particular order:
1. Cost. In monetary terms and in time and effort.
2. This will be an unveiling of a Model X prototype. Not an Alpha or a Beta.
3. No rides. No reservations. No real specs.
4. Too soon after the last one.
5. Keep the focus on Model S development.
6. Financial markets don't like too much hype. Show some results and concrete development steps first.
7. Model X deliveries in late 2013. Produce some Model S, get great applause, and then hold a Model X event in late 2012 or early 2013.
AnOutsider
11-03-2011, 01:09 PM
Well it has to be "exclusive" yet it still has to be "public" in nature. so there are not a whole lot of option for that to happen ....
The Model S beta reveal wasn't advertised as "exclusive". They're a public company so I can't see them doing what Fisker did what the Nina, so the "confusion" is me trying to figure out what they can do that wouldn't run afoul of the SEC.
If press comes, then it's hardly exclusive, unless they just mean BEING at the event is exclusive, in which case the world will see it, the event is still "exclusive" and SEC (and us here) are happy.
AnOutsider
11-03-2011, 01:11 PM
I can think of several reasons, and someone else can probably think of more (or argue the opposite!). In no particular order:
1. Cost. In monetary terms and in time and effort.
2. This will be an unveiling of a Model X prototype. Not an Alpha or a Beta.
3. No rides. No reservations. No real specs.
4. Too soon after the last one.
5. Keep the focus on Model S development.
6. Financial markets don't like too much hype. Show some results and concrete development steps first.
7. Model X deliveries in late 2013. Produce some Model S, get great applause, and then hold a Model X event in late 2012 or early 2013.
Agreed, and lends credence to the idea OS a small, intimate thing, from which details (namely pictures) will be made public.
Robert.Boston
11-03-2011, 01:31 PM
You guys drank up too much of Elon's booze and scarfed up too much of his food -- it'll be a while before he throws another party for 3,000!:rolleyes:
WhiteKnight
11-03-2011, 05:30 PM
I would expect the Model X unveiling to be very similar to the Model S unveiling several years ago. You got to see a prototype that could move under its own power but the interior was basically unfinished. I don't remember the guest list for that event but it was mostly the press, venture capital investors in Tesla and friends of Elon (if my memory serves).
I think I heard or read that there will be Model X alphas in the first half of 2012.
I would not expect a Beta Event before Model S is fully ramped up with production - if at all.
Tesla is now a public company so they will have to share the Model X with the public at the same time they unveil it to a small group.
Doug_G
11-03-2011, 07:08 PM
I suspect the Model X prototype will be a lot more "real", in that it will be built on a Model S chassis.
A 4 wheel drive opition would make the front weigh a lot more.
JRod0802
11-04-2011, 08:06 AM
A 4 wheel drive opition would make the front weigh a lot more.
Wouldn't it make it closer to 50/50? Motor up front, motor in back, battery in between?
Robert.Boston
11-04-2011, 09:10 AM
But they're already claiming a 50/50 weight distribution....
SByer
11-04-2011, 07:37 PM
With what the battery weighs, not much shift needed to fix that. And if you slightly elongate the wheelbase, and stick that all up front...
It is essentially the cabin interior/exterior that will change. From a theoretical perspective, Model S owners should one day be able to swap out the sedan for an “X” cabin. The battery, wheels and frame would be the same.
NigelM
11-06-2011, 11:05 AM
It is essentially the cabin interior/exterior that will change. From a theoretical perspective, Model S owners should one day be able to swap out the sedan for an “X” cabin. The battery, wheels and frame would be the same.
Not if you want the 4WD option.
It is essentially the cabin interior/exterior that will change. From a theoretical perspective, Model S owners should one day be able to swap out the sedan for an “X” cabin. The battery, wheels and frame would be the same.
I doubt that this would be possible. Model X will be a totally different animal with different needs in ride height and suspension. If the cabin will be different than so will be wiring and tubing. I think it would require a time consuming, uneconomical transformation.
shark2k
11-06-2011, 02:50 PM
It is essentially the cabin interior/exterior that will change. From a theoretical perspective, Model S owners should one day be able to swap out the sedan for an “X” cabin. The battery, wheels and frame would be the same.
I highly doubt that is the case as car companies have been using the same platforms for different models and they haven't been able to do what you mentioned. There are still changes that need to be done. This website gave a decent over view: Platform Sharing - Car Maintenance and Car Repairs - DriverSide (http://www.driverside.com/auto-library/platform_sharing-188)
-Shark2k
AnOutsider
11-06-2011, 04:45 PM
I highly doubt that is the case as car companies have been using the same platforms for different models and they haven't been able to do what you mentioned. There are still changes that need to be done. This website gave a decent over view: Platform Sharing - Car Maintenance and Car Repairs - DriverSide (http://www.driverside.com/auto-library/platform_sharing-188)
-Shark2k
Shark, that was a REALLY good read, thanks for that.
I'm wondering if, with the taller form factor of an SUV, TM is planning on a "double-stack" battery pack. The Model S has 85 kW-h along the floor, but a double-stack would have 170 kW-h. Even with the efficiency lost from the added weight (and wind resistance of a taller, more SUV-like vehicle), such a huge battery pack could possibly breach the 500 mile range mark. Just a thought... "Patent pending, patent pending, patent pending," [as I point to all of you]. (Yet another Simpsons reference).
Larry Chanin
11-06-2011, 09:23 PM
I'm wondering if, with the taller form factor of an SUV, TM is planning on a "double-stack" battery pack. The Model S has 85 kW-h along the floor, but a double-stack would have 170 kW-h. Even with the efficiency lost from the added weight (and wind resistance of a taller, more SUV-like vehicle), such a huge battery pack could possibly breach the 500 mile range mark. Just a thought... "Patent pending, patent pending, patent pending," [as I point to all of you]. (Yet another Simpsons reference).
Hi,
Based on current technology and economics, don't you think that such a battery would weigh more that a ton, and cost more than $50,000?
Larry
a double-stack... Said that twice here months ago.
Tap tap no erasies.
WhiteKnight
11-07-2011, 07:21 PM
Said that twice here months ago.
Yeah the double stack has been mentioned already - gonna be hard to get the patent :-).
The issue with the double stack as Larry mentions is the cost. At $300/kWh, a 170 kWh "double-stack pack" (trademark / copyright) would cost $51,000 BEFORE the 25% gross margins that Tesla has promised investors ($68,000 to consumers) so you've got the battery alone costing more than the 230 mile Model S.
I believe that one of the huge advantages that the Model X will bring is the ability to offer AWD, seating for 7 et cetera without the need to ride high (over the transmission tunnel) therefore having a low step in height. Then with air suspension you can rise up higher if you want to. Double stack would prevent this.
With that said the extended wheelbase will provide room for more batteries. This might allow the Model X to beat the Model S in terms of range but you'll have to pay for those extra batteries for sure.
Assuming the X has the same travel miles as the S (hard to go range backwards of a "camping" vehicle) I would guess they would put in enough extra batteries to offset the greater weight and less aerodynamic flow of a SUV. That is unless if by then batteries have improved enough to not need the bump in miles.
Said that twice here months ago.
Tap tap no erasies.
Granted, but not said on this thread. Sorry I was unaware of your brilliant idea, I had no intention of stealing it. As for the patent, my double-stack concept had batteries with half the height, so they'd be half the cost and half the weight. There! That negates your concerns about weight and cost. ;) But seriously, consider the double stack idea "dead." I will not bring it up again until the next person claims it as his/her idea.
shark2k
11-13-2011, 04:55 PM
Shark, that was a REALLY good read, thanks for that.
No problem.
-Shark2k
Norbert
11-13-2011, 05:47 PM
Said that twice here months ago.
Tap tap no erasies.
If this idea now gets assigned to a specific person, then I'd like to point out I mentioned it on 2/17/11, if not earlier. Were you earlier than that? ;)
EDIT: Make that 2/6/11. ;)
If this idea now gets assigned to a specific person, then I'd like to point out I mentioned it on 2/17/11, if not earlier. Were you earlier than that? ;)
It's your's. Without an tangible return, I'm too lazy to look it up.
Norbert
11-13-2011, 06:47 PM
It's your's. Without an tangible return, I'm too lazy to look it up.
I was curious how it came about and did a bit of digging. It seems Doug and you were discussing sub-packs, and "stacking" them, in Nov 2010 in the NEW RAV4 EV thread, but it seemed to be more about distributing a pack (horizontally) to multiple places in a car, though I'm not sure what you meant with "stacking", which does suggest a vertical arrangement:
Meh... who's to say those boxes aren't a simple form factor they already had for testing purposes. I see a lot of (what look like) mounting tabs there that are unused. So it's probably not specifically purpose built for this RAV4. Even if it is, much of it looks like anodized aluminum which is pretty easy to bang out on a CNC machine.
Each of those packs appear to be comprised of four sub-packs. These sub-packs might be the same as what's being used for the Model S pack (which appears to have 14). Just a guess.
That's in line with the modular pack idea. A single one could be used on a tiny car and they could fit them in a trunk or wheel well area if needed for another prototype. Paired with the PEM and motor these stacking packs would be a nice aftermarket product!
The more specific idea to stack two complete packs on top of each other, taking advantage of the clearance of an SUV, was *spelled out* in this message:
Given that SUVs usually have a higher clearance, I was wondering whether they could make it so that it allows stacking two battery packs... :smile:
But perhaps you already thought of that in your message above, I don't know, it is certainly the same principle on an abstract level. In any case, I described it more clearly a bit later for the purpose of using Lithium Air batteries which have a lower power output:
Regarding the volume, the Model S is repeatedly mentioned to have lots of space available. Perhaps lowers the expectations for a simple replacement pack which could achieve "vacation" range, though, if the energy density per volume is really limited to 2x. For that, it might have to be a bit SUV-like, stacking two (or even 3?) packs on top of each other. Then they could run in parallel, allowing higher input and output. 2 packs would give 1000 miles with 60 kW, with the weight still being much lighter than "real" upcoming packs.
In your message, you referred to a pre-existing "modular pack idea", and I didn't find what this refers to, in the thread up until then. I suppose to have a battery pack consisting of modular sub-packs is an almost ancient idea. ;)
Norbert
11-13-2011, 06:59 PM
I'm wondering if, with the taller form factor of an SUV, TM is planning on a "double-stack" battery pack. The Model S has 85 kW-h along the floor, but a double-stack would have 170 kW-h. Even with the efficiency lost from the added weight (and wind resistance of a taller, more SUV-like vehicle), such a huge battery pack could possibly breach the 500 mile range mark. Just a thought... "Patent pending, patent pending, patent pending," [as I point to all of you]. (Yet another Simpsons reference).
As WhiteKnight pointed out, the problem (with current prices) is cost. But I think that is the only reason not to do it, so I think as soon as prices go down, they will... unless by then, energy density is so high that it isn't necessary anymore.
....The issue with the double stack as Larry mentions is the cost. At $300/kWh, a 170 kWh "double-stack pack" (trademark / copyright) would cost $51,000 BEFORE the 25% gross margins that Tesla has promised investors ($68,000 to consumers) so you've got the battery alone costing more than the 230 mile Model S.
Yes. That is why I suggested the "two-pack" solution for Rolls Royce in the 102EX thread. $50,000 and 1000 Kg should be acceptable, and the big, comfy, aerodynamic-as-a-brick Roller, and its no-comprimise customers, need the energy.
GSP
I was curious how it came about and did a bit of digging. It seems Doug and you were discussing sub-packs, and "stacking" them, in Nov 2010 in the NEW RAV4 EV thread, but it seemed to be more about distributing a pack (horizontally) to multiple places in a car, though I'm not sure what you meant with "stacking", which does suggest a vertical arrangement:...
I was talking about putting a "module pack" in different places in a car wherever they might fit including stacking them on top of each other if the space was tall enough (like a trunk).
The more specific idea to stack two complete packs on top of each other, taking advantage of the clearance of an SUV, was *spelled out* in this message:...
The only ref I found for stacking a full battery for the X was this one (http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/6524-Model-X-Will-Have-Greater-Comparative-Advantage?highlight=two+packs) 10-10-2011 10:47PM that mentions an earlier post I had made somewhere before the X was even thread-worthy.
I had suggested they stack two packs up.