chimpanzee's big project

[chimpanzee]

Nice article. Clearly they have done a tremendous amount of engineering work in a relatively short time.


I always like that "through the windshield, hands on the wheel (http://teslafounders.files.wordpress.com/2008/07/ohyeah1.jpg)" driver view photo angle...

OK, Martin is let go along with Wally Rippel (Aerovironment engineer for GM EV1, Caltech alumni). Thus, alienating any future Caltech or UIUC involvement. Believe me, words travels fast. I heard on a comment, something to the effect "..& his Stanford buddies", I assume this is JDS.

I will say, JDS background is impressive, his Stanford engineering background. The "engineering issue" (instantaneous torque curve of AC Induction motor, resulting in severe shockload to transmissions) had an incorrect response: a personnel issue, blaming Martin & his group (incl Wally Rippel). xxx made a mistake in engineering assessment..IT WILL LIKELY HAPPEN AGAIN. I heard about morale being at a low (earlier in the year).


The Roadster's exceptional motor, too, is a tribute to Straubel's persistence. Tesla initially used a third-party transmission that included two gears--one to accelerate from a stop and the other to reach high speeds. The system gave the Roadster a top speed of more than 120 miles an hour. However, the shifting system routinely wore out after just a couple of thousand miles. So Straubel found a way to replace it with a single-speed gearbox. Early on, Straubel and his team had redesigned the patterned metal plates and wire coils at the heart of electric motors to improve both efficiency and torque. But the electronics feeding power from the battery to the motor still limited its output. To exploit the added torque, Straubel added higher-performance transistors and retooled the electrical connections between the motor and the gearbox. These changes increased the torque that the motor could deliver at low speeds and allowed the engineers to use a single-speed transmission without sacrificing either acceleration or maximum speed.Is this Drivetrain 1.5? (with the water cooling package for the motor, because the single speed would require higher rpm). What happened with the Death Valley testing? I can tell you, having been at CART (& Champcar) races & smelling burnt electronics (any EE major will tell you that sickly smell), that lack of heat dissipation will destroy electronics in no time. You often hear about Indycars doing ignition-box swaps mid-race, I believe this is heat-related problems. I remember one time where Sebastien Bourdais (Newman-Haas Racing) did such a swap, & they used WIRELESS to update the firmware in the pit-area! (pretty state-of-the-art).

Xtrac recently solved the breakage problem in Offroad Racing: the severe shockload on trannies when a XXXX Class 1 buggy gets airborne & lands on the ground. The situation is not unlike the situation in a Tesla Roadster (2-speed tranny + AC Induction motor). I know this team XXXX (they are one of my best supporters, my Jumplive.com (http://www.jumplive.com) multimedia project), they are heavily sponsored by European-based sponsors: exhaust, torque-limiter, etc. They were using torque-limiters (similar to above for Tesla Roadster, see above) to de-tune the extreme response of the motors. There was a year of breakage for this XXXX team (2007), but finally this year Xtrac figured it out: XXXX got 1st place at the recent 08 San Felipe 250 (!). Their 1st win ever! They followed it up, with a 3rd place (podium finish) for the Baja 500. They just added another car: European driver, teamed with a young American hotshot driver. This team is on a roll.

Lesson learned:
It took TIME for Xtrac to do the empirical testing.

"In order to Push the Limits [ of Technology ], sometimes you have to EXCEED THE LIMITS"
-- Australian GP, Formula 1 race (2003?)

The tranny breakage issue is obviously 1 of the above problems, & this SH*T TAKES TIME TO FIGURE OUT!! xxxx has this "bizarre notion" that you can "throw money at the problem" & solves problems instatneously. Bzzzt..wrong! What "Reality Distortion Field" does this guy live in?? And, he is in charge of SpaceX?? ROTFL!! Wasn't there a recent failed attempt..again?

This is why xxx's impulsive response, by incorrectly blaming Martin & Wally Rippel, is such a black mark. Not only did it hurt current TM development, it probably jeopardized the entire company's future. You think any Caltech or UIUC alumni (or ANY engineering school alumni), will work for TM, knowing that the top management is engineering-foolish??

I've been repeatedly saying on TMC posts, the value of an R&D test program. Both:

1) empirical testing via Auto Racing
Real World Knowledge. Take Ford Motor Co, they used to have a SVO/Special Vehicle Operations headed by Michael Kranefuss. I last met him in '93, at the Long Beach Grand Prix, when Robby Gordon (offroad racing phenome) was racing for AJ Foyt. All the big names in Automotive (Honda, BMW, Renault, Mercedes-Benz, Toyota, et al) are involved with auto racing, especially Formula 1. It PAYS to race, not just marketing for brand-name-recognition, but "real world" knowledge learned on the race-track.

2) analytical approach, via Simulation (Monte Carlo methods, FEM/Finite Element Method)
Book Knowledge. Engineering & Applied Science is what Caltech calls it. 1 of Caltech's Mechanical Eng profs is on leave to Northrop-Grumman, to explore the Aerospace + Alternative Energy paradigm. All the expertise developed in Aerospace, can be applied to Green Tech. I'm recently in touch with 1 of my Dad's PhD students, who is very high up in Northrop-Grumman. I need to have a meeting with Martin, to discuss an Interdisciplinary Cooperative/Collaborative R&D Program (bridging the gap between Academia & Industry, & also cross-disciplinary cross pollination). This WILL happen (my own initiative), I'm writing a proposal for it right now. I had some really excited discussions at the recent SIGGRAPH 2008 conference, incl a German engineering prof associated with Fraunhofer Inst (known for pro-active investigation of engineering problems). Since Telsa Motors is opening the European markets (incl Germany), this sounds like a real opportunity. Whether Martin wants to be part of it, is another question.

2) is my Dad's specialty, he was AAE/Aeronautical & Astronautical Eng prof @UIUC (in the same building Coordinated Science Laboratory, when Martin was a summer intern '81 at our AARG/Advanced Automation Research Group). He hired Dr. Michael Selig (wind tunnel aerodynamicist, who also dabbles in analytical approaches like Genetic Algorithms), who consulted for Newman-Haas for 6 races (got Michael Andretti 3 wins). Alan Cocconi used a Selig airfoil, for his 2005 aviation project. Last I heard (2006), he is involved with a similar project & doing mountain biking in Utah (he drives a Subaru wagon..what else!)

I've been in touch with some Academics, SDSU & Caltech. The Caltech guy (Dept Head, Nonlinear Dynamics & Control) had 1 of his students end up at Williams F1. The other guy, is the main Academic contact for Formula 1. He almost left Academia to work for a F1 team. The top F1 teams have annual budgets of 200 million. Xtrac is heavily involved with various motorsports (Formula 1, Rally Racing). CORR (http://corracing.blogspot.com) (Championship Offroad Racing) is a new startup (you might have seen the LIVE TV coverage on Sat or Sun, on NBC), where Xtrac has some Pro 2 clients. I know both of these teams well. If Xtrac solved XXXX (for Desert Racing), I expect similar success for these 2 teams (in Short Course Racing). This knowledge, might have a cross-over effect to Tesla Motors pavement application.

That's why I'm advocating an Interdisciplinary Collaborative/Cooperative R&D Program (bridging the gap between Academia & Industry, & also disciplines).

End of Lecture.

You can see Xtrac (Andrew Heard) at:

BITD Las Vegas 300 (http://jumplive.com/TA/lasvegas300/lasvegas300.textamerica.com/index99f1.html?qs=xdefault&page=1&_ctgry=26025)
[ he is incorrectly labelled at Eric Heard ]

BITD Parker 425: Contingency (http://parker425.blogspot.com/2007/02/contingency_207.html)
[ that's none other than Robby Gordon of NASCAR fame, checking out Xtrac transmissions. This is the offroad equivalent of a tranny, which has severe shock loads: airborne cars land, creating stress ]

[TEG]

"chimpanzee", I appreciate all you have to say, and all the people you know, but sometimes I have a little trouble understanding what points you are trying to make. Can you condense and summarize rather than "lecture"?

[chimpanzee]

I know bits and pieces of Tesla history that suggests that Martin should have gotten some of the credit for some positive things in that article, but it doesn't seem worth downplaying the huge contributions that JB (and team) made. The fact is that the digital motor controls are working now and are probably the best in the business. I think JB does deserve to be honored.

"chimpanzee", I appreciate all you have to say, and all the people you know, but sometimes I have a little trouble understanding what points you are trying to make. Can you condense and summarize rather than "lecture"?

I'm laying the foundation to start up ZZZ: an Interdisciplinary Collaborative/Cooperative R&D Institute for Alternative Energy. Those contacts I mentioned means I have a top-down approach to getting it approved/funded. I did something similar in 2006

[ 2 of contractors who did the LIVE Iridium satellite-based vehicle tracking, were XXX & YYY. Turns out the Vice-President & Director of Research of XXX (800 million $$ company, Virginia-based govt contractor) is a UIUC alumni from the same Dept/Specialty as myself & Martin: Artificial Intelligence & Robotics, PhD '94. Within hrs of emailing DARPA, I was talking with Dr. XXX1 & a conference call was setup with him & his lead-engineer. We did a project (http://www.seeleyracing.com/main.html) with a Class 5 racer friend, & got an excited reponse from YYY. Obviously, with Martin's accomplishments & brand-name-recognition, this is playing towards starting ZZZ. Martin might become involved, as part of his next entrepeneurial project ]

& the contacts I just made at SIGGRAPH 2008 (rich field, biggest SIG/Special Interest Group of ACM/Assn of Computing Machinery) looks very promising. The key could be Fraunhofer Inst/Germany (applied research, pro-active search for challenging R&D problems before they arise in Mfr'ing), the contact I made (German engineering prof) immediately understood my concept & reeled off the following potential auto mfr clients:

- Volkswagen
- Daimler-Benz
there are ruminations of some deal between TM & DB
- BMW

The Proof of Concept (empirically based R&D, using Auto Racing) has already been done

[ an American-based offroad racing team, which uses BMW M5 engines & Xtrac trannies..& mostly European-based sponsored parts, got 1st place at the recent San Felipe 250 after extensive Xtrac development. They followed it up with a 3rd place at the Baja 500. They just added another German driver (in addition to their existing Rally champion German driver), plus a young American hotshoe ]

I hate to say it, but the entire Tesla Motors management team (incl Martin & Marc) failed to put in place an R&D program, which would have protected them against the tranny snafu. I always wonder if I had been around at the time, if they would have listened to me (a PhD, who understands the value of R&D). It sounds as if Tesla Motors was mostly "throwing $$ at the problem", & expecting off-the-shelf contracts/products to build the Roadster.

"Life is 20% what happens to you, 80% how you respond to it
-- a wise man once said

Clearly, the "recovery" that Martin is looking for is this ZZZZ R&D outfit (for Alternative Energy companies, in genral. EV, hydrogen cars, solar power, etc). He could easily be the savior to Alternative Energy..not just EV.

In a sense, it's a good thing that he is no longer associated with Tesla Motors (which hasn't understood its past flaws, & made adjustments). He is now in a position of starting anew using new solutions (Interdisciplinary R&D), based on past mistakes @Tesla Motors.

interview with a wealthy businessman:

Q: How did you become so wealthy?
A: I made a lot of mistakes
Q: What??
A: I LEARNED FROM THOSE MISTAKES

I assume Martin has done a lot of soul searching, contemplation, etc. since 12/1/07. I'm trying to stimulate him towards an option. He & I live only a few miles from Caltech campus, who has had an illustrious history in Automotive. Jim Hall (inventor of Ground Effects, used in Formula 1 & Indycar) & A. Cocconi (GM EV1 work). 1 of the Caltech Mech Eng professors is on leave to Northrop-Grumman to exploit the Aerospace + Alternative-Energy paradigm. My dad's PhD student is really high up @Northrop-Grummn (Houston/TX), & I've been in touch with him.

Summary:
"Deals are what the world go 'round"
I'm close to finalizing a concept for a deal, involving Caltech, Fraunhofer, Northrop-Grumman (& other players). Whether Martin wants to be involved, is up to him. Then, it's on to proposal writing (due in Oct, preferably submitted by Sept).

Most of the banter on TMC is passive: response to things happening. My thing is pro-active: actually going out & making things happen.

[TEG]

Most of the banter on TMC is passive: response to things happening. My thing is pro-active: actually going out & making things happen.

Yup. I hope your project/venture/deal works out for you.
Don't you think that having so much of it "out in the open" might jinx it?

[doug]

Chimpanzee, unlike another forum member we all know (who thankfully isn't around at the moment), I believe you are rational enough to do your own housekeeping. You should be able to tell what's on topic and what's not. Please edit down your posts to what a reasonable 3rd person would consider relevant to this thread. If you wish you can create a new thread in an appropriate section and copy the bulk of what you wrote here.

[chimpanzee]

Yup. I hope your project/venture/deal works out for you.
Don't you think that having so much of it "out in the open" might jinx it?

You have a point.

There's a certain amount of Confidentiality required for business deals. However, there is an opposing view of Openness, something like the Transparency that Martin & TM were exhibiting with their blogs.

"It comes down to the Customer"

I say this stuff openly, hoping to get feedback from the userbase of TMC. In the end, satisfying client needs is the main thing in ANY BUSINESS. Yeah, I could come up with a concept that I *think* will fly (but, not opening it up to TMC userbase means the concept might be flawed). Some of my contacts are so personal/deep, anyone trying to make a "run" would be blocked.

My intent is to make it work out for EV (& in general Alternative Energy), not me. I'm just an "agent" like Martin. The field of Alternative Energy is truly exciting, not just the subject but the economic potential.


I think clearly the lack of an R&D program hurt Tesla Motors (& still does, to this day), e.g. the transmission breakage issue. JD Straubel (& his staff) seem to be under the gun with engineering R&D (see the recent article). They need an Aerovironment like think-tank (which was contracted by Hughes, a GM contractor for the EV1), to "seek out & destroy" challenging engineering problems. This is where my idea of an Interdisciplinary Collaborative/Cooperative R&D Inst comes in, with some big name universities & companies. UIUC alumni (ironically, contemporaries of Martin at UIUC/Coordinated Science Laboratory/AARG) are at key high-level positions: VP of Georgia-Tech & President of GTRI (whose ex GaTech colleague is now President of Caltech), Director of Research @Intel, Director of UC San Diego/CALIT2. Frauhofer Inst seems to be very interested, this is a good match because of their access to German auto mfrs: Daimler-Benz, BMW, Volkswagen.

Again, any attempt by a 3rd party to use the aforementioned high-level contacts, can be blocked.

[chimpanzee]

Sorry, I haven't been following this thread.

My car was in the shop to fix a few things. They replaced the satellite radio module (!) to fix both my iPod and iPhone problems. Both work correctly now. Note that I am not a satellite radio subscriber... And I still think the radio sucks - the user interface from hell. Weird to plug into it one of the finest user interfaces, the iPod.

I would just trash the JVC, & get an Alpine unit. Goto your favorite high-end car stereo dealership (e.g. Al & Eds, or even Best Buy & Circuit City..they sell Alpine also), & start shopping. I was in this mode in 2005, & the culmination of my research was that Alpine made the best decks with arguably the best UI (user interface) for iPod.

I put an interesting iPod interface for my 4x4 van. I simply used the external audio jacks, to feed in an Accurian iPod unit (120v -> 12v power unit) that has full remote & video out. Only $30 on sale at Radio Shack. I simply put in a Radio Shack 12v cigarette lighter power unit, to power it from my car. The iPod sits upright in the Accurian unit (I basically use the iPod UI, not an integrated UI in the Alpine, say). The neat thing about this config, is that I can add a small LCD display, to watch iPod videos on!! There are LCD displays with built-in TV tuners, so you have the option of watching TV..while you're driving!!

Here's a picture:

PIC_1300 on Flickr - Photo Sharing! (http://www.flickr.com/photos/chimpanzee/2792206148/in/set-72157606902901598/)


I had them fix a few other problems on the car, and I see no point in chronicling them here or on my blog - when I signed up for car #2, I fully expected a few teething problems, and I am happy if Tesla follows through to correct them.

I had a chat with one of the Tesla folks today about this: as a shareholder in Tesla, I want them to dig to the bottom of every problem that I report to determine the true root cause, and make sure that the problem is eliminated from all future cars. (Any of you that is familiar with the Lean concept of "five why's" will understand my comments to the Tesla guys. If you don't know this concept, ask me over on my blog and I will expound it :rolleyes:)

I have not heard of this $1,000 per year service charge, and I think it an outrage. This is WAY more than what I pay in annual service for any other car I own or have owned: Ford, Honda, Toyota, BMW, Audi, etc.

You are right: an electric car should cost less to service than a gasoline car, and there BETTER NOT be any annual "battery balancing" requirement.

Let's say there is some design screw-up in the battery pack, and it somehow does need to be touched by technicians annually. The trouble with charging customers money for this "service" is that it drives entirely the wrong behavior into the company. The company needs to feel pain for its mistakes so that it is motivated to correct them, and to correct the processes that lead to the creation of the mistake in the first place. (Back to the five why's) By charging the customer money, the company feels no pain - indeed the screw-up becomes a revenue source for the company.

This is the death spiral that drives stupidity into the existing car companies: the dealerships make their money on service (even warranty service) and so relish unreliability in the cars they sell. Tesla had hoped to avoid this broken feedback by owning its own stores. Seems they have forgotten this principle.

I hope this turns out to be not true - that Tesla is not charging a grand for some bogus annual service.The best way to accomplish your goal, is to offer the consumer a competing service/product..which will drive the TM's $1000 annual fee down (or completely away).

I've been thinking of your next move, & I think a cool option would be to start an aftermarket parts/service/accessories company for the Roadster. Such 3rd party
industries thrive in automotive, because (fanatic) customers want to customize their newest toy. Look at the DVD I sent you, the "Voyages" episode for Porsche. That 1 Porsche enthusiast started a Porsche xxx (the gull winged roadster) restoral company, very successful. You could offer:

- better stereo/iPod packages
- tires/wheel packages
Toyo Tires, BFG/Michelin, General Tire, Maxxis (parent company is Ching-Sheng in China) are candidates. Toyo Tires (http://toyo-tires.blogspot.com/) is making a big move into Motorsports, I have contacts with their Marketing & Engineering Dept. Their engineers work REAL CLOSELY with auto racing clients. They won the 06 Baja 1000 4-wheel overall, in Robby Gordon Motorsports TT #83. BFG (http://bfgmotorsports.blogspot.com/) had an immediate response (because their 20 yr streak of winning Baja 1000 overall was displaced). Maxxis tire (http://maxxismotorsports.blogspot.com/) is very agressive in the American market, any mountain bikers out there know they spend lots of marketing $$ (event sponsors, etc). Yokohama is cool, very good product (Ivan Stewart, the biggest icon in Offroad Racing aka "The Iron Man", ran Yokohoma on his Toyota).

Get some CAD designers together, & do some cool wheels with aforementioned hungry tire mfrs.

- communications/computer package
throw in mobile satellite Internet (there are packages for Iridium sat-phones, I have one). There's a pricey Inmarsat satellite-DSL solution, around $2.4K. Bluetooth headset. There are mobile-PC solutions for cars, for geek heads who want PC capability in their cars.

Sample customized communications/entertainment package for a $300K offroad-racing pre-runner

http://www.jumplive.com/07corrav4/joyride5.jpg

Some offroad race cars have bullet cams located all over the car (front & rear looking, suspension monitor, etc) that record to SD cards. You could put in video cameras to eliminate blind spots (this issue just came up for the Roadster)

*A) R&D based products
this is where I may come in, since I plan on submitting a proposal to XXX to do 3rd party R&D for Alternative Energy companies (e.g., TM Roadster). The immediate need, is the transmission. Xtrac recently solved the severe shockload problem for Class 1 offroad cars (airborne cars, landing), which is similar to the shockload of clutchless 2-speed tranny shifting (?). Their client YYY (friends of mine, supporter of my Jumplive.com (http://www.jumplive.com/main.html) project) got a 1st place at the recent San Felipe 250, & 3rd place (podium) at the Baja 500. I.e., the "Proof of Concept" is done, it's a simple matter of submitting a proposal, with Xtrac & YYY as R&D partners. I.e., 1 part of the R&D program: Empirical-based R&D ("Real World Knowledge") using Auto Racing. The 2nd part would be an Analytical-based R&D ("Book Knowledge"), involving Math/ComputerPhysics Modeling & Simulation. I.e., FEM/Finite Element Method, Montel Carlo Methods, Genetic Algorithms, CA/Cellular Automata, etc.

Who knows, maybe you can offer a working Xtrac 2-speed (the thing that Elon Musk never had the patience to work through). The Powertrain 1.5 is still suspect: running a 1-speed at higher-revs (more heat generation w/water-cooling, this is potentially bad news: shortens life cycle & prone to failure) is still untested reliability-wise. Weren't they supposed to do such testing in Death Valley this month?


If you are interested in getting involved with A), you need to contact me immediately. I have to do some quick proposal writing, due dates are Oct/Sept. I made some key contacts at SIGGRAPH 2008, 1 of them being Fraunhofer Inst (Famous German-based think-tank applied research outfit). The German CS prof immediately saw the potential, & named Daimler-Benz, Volkswagen, BMW as potential clients. Since there are ruminations of deals/talks between DB & TM, this is even more interesting.

The above solution is a great way of doing "your thing" (Roadster maniac), but shielding yourself from politics (TM management). Same situation for me. We can always fall back on Alternative Energy companies (in general), instead of putting all our marbles in Tesla Motors. They still haven't figured it out, IMO. I.e., not setting up an R&D Program, & putting JD Straubel & his staff under the gun. By removing you, Wally Rippel, Judy Estrin..they could have easily alienated Caltech & UIUC engineering alumni. It's a well known fact:

"It's all about PEOPLE"
-- DoD/Dept of Defense analyst, why wars/battles are won/lost

The key to TM success (or failure), is the ability to hire good people. From management to engineering. Some character out there made a serious blunder, & severely jeopardized the engineering "people" component. TM's fate could be set-in-stone, it's just a matter of time before..

[chimpanzee]

...

I had a chat with one of the Tesla folks today about this: as a shareholder in Tesla, I want them to dig to the bottom of every problem that I report to determine the true root cause, and make sure that the problem is eliminated from all future cars. (Any of you that is familiar with the Lean concept of "five why's" will understand my comments to the Tesla guys. If you don't know this concept, ask me over on my blog and I will expound it :rolleyes:)

I have not heard of this $1,000 per year service charge, and I think it an outrage. This is WAY more than what I pay in annual service for any other car I own or have owned: Ford, Honda, Toyota, BMW, Audi, etc.

You are right: an electric car should cost less to service than a gasoline car, and there BETTER NOT be any annual "battery balancing" requirement.

Let's say there is some design screw-up in the battery pack, and it somehow does need to be touched by technicians annually. The trouble with charging customers money for this "service" is that it drives entirely the wrong behavior into the company. The company needs to feel pain for its mistakes so that it is motivated to correct them, and to correct the processes that lead to the creation of the mistake in the first place. (Back to the five why's) By charging the customer money, the company feels no pain - indeed the screw-up becomes a revenue source for the company.

This is the death spiral that drives stupidity into the existing car companies: the dealerships make their money on service (even warranty service) and so relish unreliability in the cars they sell. Tesla had hoped to avoid this broken feedback by owning its own stores. Seems they have forgotten this principle.

I hope this turns out to be not true - that Tesla is not charging a grand for some bogus annual service.

I agree with the concept of Negative Reinforcement

[ a tried/true method of fixing issues. There was an Psychology episode with the title Negative Reinforcement. The US Military is a big believer in it. That's why US military forces are amongst the best trained in the World. Sergeant "Jack Hammer" & his colleagues, go around berating/yelling at the young recruits off the street ("totally undisciplined"). At the end of boot-camp, they are totally prepared to take on any battle assignment 'round the world. ]

However, given the Power infrastructure at TM, how much would your negative reinforcement (words) really accomplish? "It starts from the Top", & we all know what the problem at TM is. Wally Rippel, yourself, Judy Estrin were all part of that stealth bloodbath. Something akin to the purges by Stalin. "I'm locally pessimistic, globally optimistic" (quote from Dr. Jordan Pollack, another UIUC/Coordinated Science Laboratory/AARG alumni from Martin's day), means that TM is in some big trouble down the line. No global optimism, global pessimism.

Here's a more effective solution, which I already alluded to. Use the "Market Place of Ideas" approach.

Come up with a competing product (3rd party maintenance for $500 at your new company "Roadster by Eberhard", which does TWICE what TM offers for $1K). You'll be laughing all the way to the bank, plus TM may quit their practice altogether.

Of course, you want me involved with my Interdisciplinary R&D think-tank for Alternative Energy companies. Because, I will have a Tesla Roadster division specifically pro-actively addressing engineering problems for the Roadster. Undoubtedly, it will spinoff Roadster 3rd party products, which your company will license to manufacture/sell. I already have a line on an Xtrac 2-speed, their Offroad Racing program made a breakthrough (after 1 year of breakage, they delivered a working tranny to their their client XXX: got 1st place, followed by 3rd place). You could be doing 2-speed tranny swaps for Roadster owners. Haha, you could have the last laugh. You were incorrectly blamed for "choosing the wrong vendor twice". When I heard that, I just totally LAUGHED. This S**T takes TIME, in auto racing circles they refer to it as "developing a car". Xtrac was working tirelessly in Offroad Racing community (very positive feedback from my sources), & sure enough time was all they needed. I'm good friends with XXX, & they are listed as a R&D client on an imminent proposal.

Drivetrain 1.5 is supposed to go thru reliability testing this month in Death Valley. A 1-speed revving high, generating heat, in high heat environments..makes me really nervous. I've been around CART/Champcar races, & ignition box failure is pretty common. Heat is the enemy/cause. I've personally smelled burned electronics on the pit. I really wonder about Drivetrain 1.5, in a high heat environment. I goto Death Valley a lot, when I was there in July 2005 it was 125 deg!!

[chimpanzee]

There was a recent article on the Roadster, & Lamborghini came up for discussion. They are feeling the heat about high gas prices. How about electrifying some of the "standard model" high-performance sports cars, like Ferrari, Porsche, Lamborghini, BMW, Audi, etc? I know JD Straubel/TM electrified a Porsche (personal project). Being a techie, that would be my approach to "getting my feet wet" in EV.

I have friends in Auto Racing (top race car builders, they go from $450K & up), & they build fancy street-legal desert pre-runners for high-end clients. They buy a ladder frame (which makes the car street-legal), & build a chromoly chassis/cage around it. They goto their junkyard friends, & get a nice body (off a recent wreck). Whoala, instant bad-ass street car at a "budget price" (by building it themselves). Here's one of my favorites:

Vildosola Racing "Lobo" (http://jumplive.com/TA/lasvegas300/lasvegas300.textamerica.com/index0cc0.html?r=5443853&_ctgry=26024)
BITD Las Vegas 300 (http://jumplive.com/TA/lasvegas300/lasvegas300.textamerica.com/index9e34.html?_ctgry=26024)

http://jumplive.com/TA/lasvegas300/imageserver4.textamerica.com/user.images.x/71/IMG_537571/_1013/T520061013100448399.jpg

Full suspension travel like in their all out race truck, but with creature comforts (A/C, satellite GPS, car stereo). The builders are good friends of mine, & they use Xtrac in their CORR (http://corracing.blogspot.com) Pro 2 truck. Here is what their race-truck looks like (same race, Las Vegas 300):

Vildosola Racing: Vildosola TT #4, start [ BITD '06 Las Vegas 300 ] (http://vildosolaracing.blogspot.com/2006/10/vildosola-tt-4-start-bitd-06-las-vegas.html)
Vildosola Racing: Vildosola TT #4, MM1 lap 2 [ BITD '06 Las Vegas 300 ] (http://vildosolaracing.blogspot.com/2006/10/vildosola-tt-4-mm1-lap-2-bitd-06-las.html)

[ they own a house in Pebble Beach, they're wealthy millionaires in the Transportation Industry. I guess they are candidates for a TM Roadster. I'm really good friends with them, they are my #1 supporter of my Jumplive.com (http://www.jumplive.com/main.html) project ]

BTW, they won the race!! Guess what, they have had problems (what many offroad racing teams) with transmissions durability/reliability. Sound familiar? The shock loads in Offroad Racing, are NOT unlike what the Tesla Roadster experiences. I just read somewhere on an offroad racing website "there is no transaxle out there which is bigger/strong enough to take the shock loads". This is why Offroad Racing is a really interesting cross-over domain, that TM could benefit from. I'm writing a Cross Disciplinary Collaborative/Cooperative R&D proposal for Alternative Energy companies (e.g., Tesla Roadster), that will address these challenging engineering issues. Yesterday, I spoke with a couple of leading Offroad Racing engineers (1 is an offroad racer, other is a really famous chassis-designer with Formula 1/CanAm/LeMans background), one of them who knows Wally Rippel & himself dabbled in CVT/Continuously Variable Transmission (for a street EV) back in '93/'94. He ran into what A. Cocconi ran into: political oppression (the CA mandate was repealed, due to pressure by oil/car companies) Gave up on his effort, since there was no money behind it. Today, it's different climate..politically it's receptive, it's now an exercise in Business & Engineering (what Martin & company went through). The failure to setup an R&D program hurt them, & based on the Needs/Solutions model, it is obvious what needs to be done.

I got a ride in 1 of these $300K desert pre-runners, they ride like Cadillacs..the shock absorber technology is so good, the massive bumps get absorbed like a "sponge".

Corona Racing: pre-run w/S. Sourapas [ '05 Laughlin ] (http://coronaracing.blogspot.com/2008/08/pre-run-ws-sourapas-05-laughlin.html)

[ the owner/driver is a USC grad, millionaire who dabbles in racing. He would certainly qualify to be a Tesla Roadster client ]

[vfx]

the owner/driver is a USC grad, millionaire who dabbles in racing. He would certainly qualify to be a Tesla Roadster client ]

Then you should sell him one!

In my life I meet a lot of people who have 10. 100 or 1000 times my income. I make it a high priority to let them know about the car. If I get a nibble then I go into full-on sales mode. :cool:

[chimpanzee]

Then you should sell him one!

In my life I meet a lot of people who have 10. 100 or 1000 times my income. I make it a high priority to let them know about the car. If I get a nibble then I go into full-on sales mode. :cool:

He & V** Racing are on my short list today (phone call), about becoming R&D partners ("Auto Racing", Empirical Research division). I would 1st introduce them to Martin (all of them are auto enthusiasts, & have the incomes to "collect cars"), & go from there. You see, there's politics involved. TM is under new managment, & I have to play it by ear. I need Martin's feedback on the whole matter.

I think Martin's next move should be RbE/"Roadster by Eberhard", a 3rd party aftermarket supplier of Roadster. Cool aftermarket accessories, incl Xtrac 2-speed (I have a line on a solution, Xtrac solved the shockload problem in Offroad earlier this year), stereo systems, AI (Artificial Intelligence) based HUD (Heads Up Displays) from Aerospace Technology, wheel/tire packages, etc. Martin is a car enthusiast, & Roadster fanatic. He is like the potential clients of RbE, wealthy successful professionals who want to accessorize/enhance their newest Roadster toy. He would know what to do. So, my above 2 friends would be directed to RbE as clients, instead of TM. See what I'm getting at?

Martin can eventually get what he wants (play in the EV area), while distancing himself from TM (because of politics). How I factor in the whole scenario (my vision for an Interdisciplinary Collaborative/Cooperative R&D outfit for Alternative Energy companies..incl TM), is still under development. Martin could advise me on this. My R&D thing could license Technology to "Roadster by Eberhard", for mass-consumer manufacturing/distribution.

[chimpanzee]

I went to the MP store on Saturday to take VP11 for a spin. I was told that Model S was originally going to be shown at the L.A. auto show but that it's now unlikely. My bet is that they'll unveil it at a special event at their L.A. store in December.

Well, this is NOT good.

Q: What was the recent crisis with TM?
A: a transmission issue (due to failure on TM's part to setup an R&D program, that would have "covered" them) that created an "employment issue". I.e., Martin & company (incl W. Rippel, Judy Estrin) being canned in the infamous "Stealth Bloodbath". That led to further production delays, & even Drivetrain 1.5 hasn't gone thru a Durability/Reliability testing program (whatever happened to the Death Valley test, back in Aug). So, the trickle of Roadsters has a "smoking gun" issue of another tranny issue?

Okay, I could live with the above if they made a nice recovery. But, to now hear about delays in "S"..this sounds like "same old same old". I guarantee you, this persistent pattern of under-delivering will cause great harm to their brand-name/reputation.

Allow me to reprint what was said on RCSE mailing list (Radio Control Soaring Electric, the same hobby myself & A. Cocconi & many Aerovironment engineers dabble in). There was a small vendor which was NOTORIOUS for poor customer service:


7)Do not EVER promise more than you can deliver. Your word should be
gold, cashable at any trust bank on any planet in the universe. You lie,
mis-inform, insult, berate, belittle your customers (including potential
tire kickers) then be prepared to:

[ the recent vindictive/childish disrespecting of Martin really SHOCKED me & others. Many commented "How could I trust TM, if they pulled this on Martin?" ]

a) have business sales/volume suffer
b) develop a poor reputation amongst your peers and the community
c) have negative, sometimes incorrect/inaccurate
comments/information spread about you and your operation like
wildfire
d) your business eventually dies a slow horrible death
e) all of the above

That about says it. AFAIC, TM better get their ship on the right course fast. Somehow I don't think it's gonna happen. ("It starts from the Top", as the saying goes). Maybe all along, the experts were right, a small company like TM doesn't have a chance in the bigtime industry of Auto Mfring (where a LOT of critical mass is required). Not to put down Martin, it was certainly a heroic effort for his initiative to found TM. Heck , it certainly "stirred the pot" & got GM off their butts. THAT may be the biggest legacy of all for TM, the "I'm the straw that stirs the drink" (quote by Mr. October, aka New York Yankee outfielder Reggie Jackson). Unfortunately, some unscrupulous characters were brought on board. THAT'S LIFE, scoundrels/sharks everywhere! I had my own experience in 2006, boy was it NASTY! However, the bad guys had a SPECTACULAR FAILURE according to the maxim "Cheaters Never Prosper". Like D. Vespremi (suing TM), I simply get a lawyer & it's a simple matter to recover damages for "Unfair Competition" (my case could settle in the millions).

Some finishing comments from RCSE:


There is no magic here. These bare minimum points I assure you will
gaurantee as long as there is a market for your wares, you will be
respected, looked favorably upon by your peers, and maybe even make a
little more money than you first thought as a result of your
good/great/fantastic/superior/without equal product (customers get to
choose level of course). I am sure that those manufactuers/vendors who
are following this patently simple process are sitting back right now
and smiling...

How we all wish TM was the latter! Again, it was a certain individual that came in & messed things up!

I go back to the transmission issue with Xtrac & Magna. Man, these kinds of teething engineering issues always come up, especially in the "In order to push the Limits, you SOMETIMES HAVE TO EXCEED THE LIMITS" world of Alternative Energy. It takes TIME (that cursed word in Research & Manufacturing) to sort things out. An R&D program was NOT setup to cover them

[ Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft Index Home (http://www.fraunhofer.de/EN/index.jsp) is a good example of a 3rd party entity set up to pro-actively search for such engineering problems to be located/solved, before they arise in Industry. As a matter of fact, I spoke to a German CS/Computer Science prof (associated with Fraunhofer) (http://www.flickr.com/photos/chimpanzee/sets/72157606777472208/) about my idea to setup a Interdisciplinary Collaborative/Cooperative R&D Inst for Alternative Energy, & he immediately picked up on it. He named Daimler-Benz, Volkswagen, BMW as potential clients. Well, we now know DB has some kind of deal going with TM, so that may play into.. ]

so, that cost them TIME. Well guess what? Xtrac is heavily involved with Auto Racing (experimental testbed for R&D): IndyCar, Offroad, Formula 1, Rally. They signed up a leading Class 1 team in Offroad as a Development Partner (whose owner's name is Martin, btw), worked thru severe breakage issues in 2007, & in early 2008 they successfully developed an Xtrac tranny that earned them a 1st place & 3rd place at the 2 most recent Baja races! The shockload problem in Offroad (flying a car in the car & landing it, tremendous stress on tranny (http://corracing.blogspot.com/2007/12/pro-4-qualifying-sun-corr-07-primm.html)) is NOT unlike that of the Roadster. So, the cross-pollination effect of Interdisciplinary Science has a solution for a 2-speed Xtrac Roadster. I.e., the Proof of Concept has essentially been done. Submitted as part of a NSF (or DoE or DARPA) proposal, this would go a long way in getting the R&D Inst funded. My involvement with Offroad (& pavement racing like Champcar) has many fancy mutlimedia tools (http://www.jumplive.com/main.html), so this effective use of state-of-the-art of Graphics will also enhance the proposal. The latter 2 points: Proof of Concept & Effective Use of Graphics were named as key in getting proposals funded ("Art of Grant Writing", SIGGRAPH 2008 course). I've found a couple of key contacts, who have experience in Infrastructure Development (1 guy sits on NSF panel reviews, & himself got his thing funded to the tune of 33 million).

So, I'm pretty pumped I've found the Solution, in the Needs/Solution model for TM. I'm just waiting for Martin to get on board, or have him available as an advisor. Maybe, his role is to work with GM/Bob Lutz to get the Volt to the mass-market. You will notice that the R&D Inst has a *generalized* model (business model diversification), it targets ANY Alternative Energy company. Hydrogen power, EV, solar power. So, I'm covered in the sense that I'm not affected by individual company blowups.

I invite any comment/feedback by knowledgable TMC members (some with extensive business experience). I still have to fine-tune the concept, before I know what to write a proposal for. The R&D Inst would be located on various university campuses (UIUC, Caltech, Georgia-Tech, UC San Diego...Academic research partners), & also have Industrial Partners (GM, Intel, Fraunhofer Inst). Many of aforementioned entities have UIUC alumni (ironically, some were officemates with Martin & myself at Coordinated Science Laboratory/AARGM). My background is Research, not Business.

[chimpanzee]

Here's another comment from the RCSE thread about "Business run like a Hobby":


I'm not particularly worked up about NSP and
lying, per se.
But I have enough experience in business, enough
experience as a customer, and enough experience as
an NSP customer to know that their website and
their business in general exhibits low information
quality.

[ we're beginning to hear complaints about the decline of TM's blog, so the transparency seems to have gone by the wayside ]

Good information quality takes time,
effort, a whole lot of giving a damn, and the
right kind of people to execute it at every level,
and enough leadership skill to ensure that this
kind of quality endures as the business develops
and grows. I honestly don't think that NSP has all
those things. Few businesses do. NSP is full of
good intentions inconsistently applied, full of
good informational concepts that have to some
extent decayed or gone unsupported. Its
information shows sloppiness and hurriedness at
every turn,

[ the pattern of over-promising & under-delivering is signs of this "hurriedness" ]

full of writing errors and spelling
mistakes, etc. etc. And I think that they seem to
have fallen into the habit of taking advantage of
their own information deficiencies with a bias
towards sales. Not exactly lying, but not the most
pleasant business practice (realistically more of
an unconscious cultural habit, probably, than an
actual 'practice') to be at the recieving end of.

Is it surprising? Well, not really. Small
businesses run by hook or by crook are all over
the place. Small businesses run like really tight
ships with expertise in their field AND great
information quality and management at every level?
amazingly rare.

Is it insulting? Depends on whether you're busy
having the kind of transaction that happens to
work well for NSP or the kind that is more
directly affected by these information problems.
No question it can suck to be involved in the
worse end of the spectrum, especially if you
aren't already bracing for it.

Can NSP get away with their current level of
information quality? So far it appears that they
absolutely can.

If you're frustrated, can you do anything? Sure,
you can become a non-customer, which often feels
pretty unsatisfying, but is still important to do
if you feel strongly. And you can communicate your
experience. This is probably best done by cooling
way way down first and then simply saying what
happened and what you wish you had known, or what
you wish you had done, including, if appropriate,
wishing you hadn't done any business with them,
and what you wish they had done, in case (and
don't hold your breath here) they're actually
listening.

[ this was the purpose of Martin starting the Tesla Founders blog, to give a factual account of what happened. The Truth Needs to Be Heard ]

A more extreme excoriating letter of
condemnation ends up sounding fanatical, and
probably doesn't have as much of the intended
consequence as it FEELS like it has. Unless
vitriolic composition is really helping you
personally heal from your experience, then it's
probably just wasted energy, and you can always
write the really flaming letter and not send it to
anyone if you really need the experience.

Just to offer a paradigm shift, another option is
to acknowledge that NSP transactions can range
from perfectly good to just plain awful, then
radically lower your expectations, see if the
product you might be interested in is STILL worth
buying given your new lower expectations, and if
it is, then order it. Who knows, you might get
decent service and a chance to really enjoy doing
business there. They clearly pull that off some
very significant percentage of the time, or they
would be out of business already. WARNING: this
option requires a sort of zen attitude towards
business that many folks find very hard to achieve
:)


It appears as if the TM situation is not an isolated incident, but a universal problem that pervades all of Business. One has to wonder, where they would be if Management was "with it".

[chimpanzee]

Do you know this for a fact? I would assume that the delay between coming up with the design for 1.5 back in January, and putting it production cars (not for another month or two) is because they are doing Durability/Reliability testing. If they aren't, why not just use it from the beginning of production this past March? The design was complete back then.

No reports about the Death Valley test (scheduled in Aug). Again, like you pointed out, this could be a PR issue. It's been observed that TM blogs are woefully inadequate in maintaining "transparency". This is reminiscent of the Champcar fiasco (bankrupt CART proceeds bought by K. Kalkhoven .com'er), where it was totally mismanaged & the media dept "disappeared":

"if you don't control the Media, the Media will control you"

A LOT of worried commentary/speculation by fans (on Champcar Fanatics forum, the analog of TMC), & sure enough..implosion earlier this year: Bankruptcy.

I will say this. Knowing something about Auto Racing, I have smelled BURNED ELECTRONICS on pit-road. Being an EE, I know about this. What is going on is that the electronic black-box is subjected to severe heat stress (no air conditioning) & they blow up. Laws of Thermodynamics apply. You often see Indycars fail to start at the beginning of the race: I believe this is due to cars sitting around, getting hot, black box electronics failing. You often see race cars coming in during the race, & blackbox being swapped out (I remember Newman-Haas doing this to S. Bourdais' car, & doing a fancy WiFi software update on pit-road).

We are hearing about reports from Autobahn testing, where extended periods of running the car full-tilt are causing cooling issues w/electronics. Drivetrain 1.5 is a 1-speed that is over-revved & overheating the motor (requiring special watercooling). Heat is the enemy, it will cause premature component wear. So, heating issues are a concern, & although I don't know for a fact, I'm suspecting there could be a lurking heat gremlin. I've BEEN to Death Valley (http://www.flickr.com/photos/chimpanzee/sets/72157606273652069/), it can get up to 125 deg there. To be making major engineering mods mid-stream, without full test profiling (isn't that what Engineering prototypes are for?), swapping it in to fix a failing component (2-speed tranny locked into 2nd), sounds awful dicey to me.

What is it..around 30 Roadster delivered so far? How do they expect to fulfill all those future orders (isn't it a large # ?) And, now they are tackling ANOTHER vehicle development/manufacturing program? This sounds like a classic case of violating the maxim:

"Discretion is the Better Part of Valor"

TM is trying to do way too much, too soon. It goes back to "it starts from the top", some guy out there has no Sense of Reality. His ex Physics prof (Univ of Penn) publicly commented "his efforts are diluted". He's doing this SpaceX (trail of failures) AND micro-managing TM into the ground? (driving out Martin, W. Rippel, J. Estrin). Despite the temporary optimism about some Roadster deliveries, I see NO CHANGE in the flaws with upper management.

I hate to say it, others have commented also, that TM has a real uphill climb ("challenges") in front of it. Can they be David, & beat Goliath (established auto mfrs, with tons of resources & "critical mass")? Well, they sure aren't doing the following:

"if you put themselves in a position to Win, you have a shot at winning"
-- Jim Valvano (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_rrwtn4A08), head basketball coach of NC State Wolfpack

They seem to reverting to past behavior: "throwing money at the problem". Hiring a bunch of hi-profile people (ex-Mazda designer), & leading people to believe (on the surface) that there's optimism/hope for progress.



Well, most of the "delays" you are hearing about are mere speculation on this board (admittedly some of which by me). As of about 10 days ago, Tesla representatives were telling me that they still plan on getting the Model S out in late 2010 (which is not a delay). What has been delayed is showing the public the final design. This may be a cause for concern... but may also be Tesla Motors trying not to over-promise/ under-deliver as you put it. Certainly we can be concerned, but I don't know that it is worth a 2 page diatribe at this point. Their timeline is starting to seem a bit rushed, but they specifically said they could still meet their 2010 date if they finalized the design by the end of this year.

You have a point, there is incomplete information & speculation. But, read the above analysis, & you get a feeling of "System Gestalt" (German term from Artificial Intelligence research, about global organization) that they are not making proper adjustments. That's why I'm high on the idea of a 3rd party R&D outfit, to offload some of the engineering R&D off their backs (JD Straubel & staff).

I go back to the famous fable of Rabbit vs Tortoise. The rabbit starts off fast, burns out, & the Tortoise wins. "Slow & Steady wins the race" (similar to the naval saying "Steady as she goes"). I think TM is following the path of the "rabbit", trying to do too much..too fast. "Haste makes Waste". This SH*T takes TIME (that magic word), it won't happen overnight.

Someone in TM management is apparently in some sort of "Reality Distortion Field", just not grounded in Reality. "Some people have more Money than Brains". My training is in EE (same generation as Martin, we both did our masters thesis in AI/Robotics/Vision, same advisor), & my bent is toward being Conservative. Exhaustive Design & Testing (doing my homework), before announcing a "product". You get the feeling that TM is doing the equivalent of "cramming before an exam". Bad idea.

Given all that's happened, everyone has to ask themselves that question: "What do you think about TM future?" If there isn't an immediate split-second response like "they'll pull it off", that means there are problems ("red flags").

[chimpanzee]

I certainly don't know all the ins and outs of the upgrade. (JB details it better than I ever could here: Tesla Motors - touch (http://www.teslamotors.com/blog4/)). I am pretty sure that they did not end up having to water cool the motor though. Water cooling was a possibility mentioned early in the design, but they managed to make it work with the existing air cooling. My layman's understanding is that most of the change involve increasing electronics efficiency. More efficient IGBTs in the Power Electronics and a more efficient motor allow for more power across a greater range removing the need for a lower gear for initial acceleration. The efficiency of going from a transmission to essentially a differential allowed for additional weight savings which helped even more.

I haven't had time to fully research all the press out there (due to work constraints), Re: Drivetrain 1.5. I do recall JB talking about how quirky the analog circuity of ACP's PEM was, & how they re-engineered everything to a modern digital design. I go back to my repeated emphasis on the importance of an R&D program

[ especially external virtual Interdisciplinary Collaborative/Cooperative R&D Inst for Alternative Energy, covering Academia & Industry..ala Fraunhofer Inst: pro-active search/solution of engineering problems, before they are encountered in Manufacturing ]

which acts as a "safety umbrella", which covers companies like TM. I understand there was a LOT of furious engineering activity by JB & staff, this kind of stress (workload under time pressure) increases Risk. The whole crisis last year arose from engineering pressure & missed deadlines, which manifested as the Stealth Bloodbath. Good people were ejected (UIUC & Caltech alumni), & the consequences may be felt for a long time to come.

"Go into it with a GROUP [ teamwork ] of people"
-- Dr xxx, Caltech CS professor

The idea of some organized infrastructure (TM & the above R&D Inst) is how Japan is so successful in its dominance in the Tech industry:

"America is #1 in Technology, Japan is #1 in bringing Technology to the Marketplace"
-- Japanese industrialist, early 80's (said to me while a UIUC grad student, the same time Martin was in our group)

In Japan, there is organized effort involving Govt & Industry (incl subsidies). Martin's summer '81 advisor @UIUC (whose son was an intern w/Martin that same summer at our lab, now is Director of Research & VP Corporate Technology @Intel) said "The Japanese use the tools so fast".

So, just look at "Who killed the Electric Car?". It's pathetic & depressing (I could see the resignation on A. Cocconi's face when I met him in summer '06, he was burned out due to infighting with Govt & oil companies), how this country (govt & certain Industry entities) shoot themselves in the foot.

"I want a Clean Solution, WITHOUT ANY INFIGHTING"

Maybe an expert can chime in, but overall I see chaos. Ironically, we saw chaos within even a small company like TM (infighting), which led to a crisis. The lessons learned, is that there needs to be better Organization/Infrastructure. High-level initiatives have to come from the top. I was just watching an ABC Investigative Reports from the DNC & RNC, where there were these sleazy Lobbying parties (by wealthy corporations) designed to influence political candidates. It seems as if direction in USA is driven by Politics, not Needs/Solutions of the masses (e.g., Alternative Energy).

How can any company (like TM) in Alternative Energy be a part of a new Industrial Revolution, with such flawed infrastructure? "It starts from the Top" as the saying goes, & someone powerful in Washington better step to the plate & do something.



I wonder how durable the new transmission is? The Xtrac 2-speed in the early roadsters worked well too as a proof of concept... but only to 10,000 miles or so.

The offroad racing is a REALLY "extreme duty application", the physical shock/heat/dust is unbelievable. The "buggy" (independent suspension, derived from VW transaxle) flies in the air & lands, the latter where the shockload to tranny occurs. It's not unlike the shockload in a Roadster, the sudden torque curve of the AC Induction motor placing stress on the tranny (also, in clutchless shifts from 1st to 2nd?). They had breakage problems (by various offroad clients in desert racing) throughout 2007, but this team has technical expertise (the owner/driver has a 4 yr tech degree from Europe). They do their own on-board telemetry analysis. I am not surprised that this "sharp well run team that is INTO TECHNOLOGY" has achieved success as development partner with Xtrac.

Getting back to your question, how would their knowledge translate to a 2-speed Xtrac tranny for pavement applications (e.g., Roadster). Racing hardware is designed for short burst application (1 race). However, even so, it might translate into longevity/robustness (durability/reliability) for street applications. Even, sustaining Martin's wicked style of driving!

That would be one of the problems to be studied, if my proposal (DoE or NSF or DARPA) gets funded, hopefully with Martin in tow. Translating the racing tranny to a street tranny (doing a crossover from Offroad to Street, that's Interdisciplinary Science). This could benefit not just TM, but ANY EV company wanting to do a 2-speed tranny for their car.


It's been said:

"there is no such thing as a bullet proof transmission in offroad racing"

I.e., both driver & car have their limits, & the driver has to know the limits of the car (engine, tranny, suspension, tires) & stay within the performance envelope. I.e., operate to the fine line of breakage & bring the car home. What's going on with that Class 1 team, is that they've developed an Xtrac tranny which is strong (but not indestructable) AND found a championship Rally driver (from Germany) who has a track record for winning races.

It's the well known symbiosis of driver + car, in the environment of a race-track. There was a famous Formula 1 driver (multiple season points titles to his credit) by the name of Alain Prost, aka "The Professor". He was famous for "saving the car" (especially tires) in early/mid stages of the race, & finishing strong late in the race. Another driver known for this was Rick Mears (cut his teeth in offroad racing, 4-time Indy 500 winner), who would always "stay in the hunt", & go for the win in the later stages.

The above Strategy is what TM lacked. They were trying to go TOO FAST..TOO SOON. It's the old fable of the Tortoise & the Hare:

"Slow & Steady wins the race"

In naval speak, they say "Steady as she goes". TM was trying to go for the grand-slam in their rookie-at-bat (I commend them for their go-for-it-attitude), but "Discretion is the Better Part of Valor")

Lo & Behold, the tranny issue bit them (their failure to setup a "protective umbrella" short/medium/long term R&D program, prevented a "rescue" solution), & we are where we are today..scrambling. TM is still "throwing money at the problem", hiring all sorts of top tier people. But, have they realized their mistakes & made adjustments to their Strategy? ("Risk Management", as per Bobby Baldwin the famous Vegas casino exeuctive & championship Poker player, business is afterall somewhat of a poker game)

"Increasingly, it's a race between Education [ R&D program, "Book Knowledge"/Academia & "Real World Knowledge"/Racing ] & Disaster"
-- H.G. Wells

TM may be "getting away with it" with their Drivetrain 1.5 "save", but can they continue along in poor "risk management" modus-operanda? No, it will eventually catch up with them. You can only "goto the well" so often, before Mr. Fate will intervene.

Maybe it's good that Martin is no longer there, he is free to use the lessons from TM ("Experience is a Great Teacher") to start his next venture. Hopefully, partner with this upcoming "Interdisciplinary Collaborative/Cooperative R&D Inst for Alternative Energy" to minimize risk for his new company.

[Laurent]

Martin is no longer there, he is free to use the lessons from TM ("Experience is a Great Teacher") to start his next venture. Hopefully, partner with this upcoming "Interdisciplinary Collaborative/Cooperative R&D Inst for Alternative Energy" to minimize risk for his new company.

Judging from your posts, I wouldn't be surprised if Martin chose instead to get away from you as fast as possible, like 0 to 60 under 4 seconds.

[chimpanzee]

Judging from your posts, I wouldn't be surprised if Martin chose instead to get away from you as fast as possible, like 0 to 60 under 4 seconds.

"Talk sense to a fool, & he calls you foolish"
-- Euripides

This is a familiar response when dealing with simpletons. I defer to Stephen Wolfram's remarks, when he left UIUC (triple appointment in Math, Physics, Computer Science):

"It was a mind numbing experience"
-- S. Wolfram, Re: undergrad students (as a whole, not everyone)

Another example. The recent CERN/LHC turn on (http://news.google.com/news?client=safari&rls=en-us&q=lhc&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&um=1&hl=en&sa=X&oi=news_group&resnum=1&ct=title), which has resulted in the usual attacks by ignoramuses/fools. MIT physicist Frank Wilczek/Nobel Laureate (who I know, & plan on working with in a HEP related project) was the target of death threats (http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2008/09/mit_physicist_g.html?p1=Well_MostPop_Emailed5)

Thanks for the feedback, I take it as a compliment.

Similarly, Martin's collision with xxx at TM is similar, he ran afoul of the same phenomena when trying to deal with idiots. Justine Musk said recently on her blog:

"It's one thing to be adored, but when you're reviled in equal measure...now that's a sign you've truly made it."
-- smashed car. sold book. met Coldplay (http://moschus.livejournal.com/97897.html?thread=693865), went to dinner with Coldplay upon Elon's request (after they visited TM LA store)


"If you're gonna go, GO BIG"
"Go Hard..or GO HOME"
-- offroad racing saying

"I always thought they went only half-way..NOT ALL THE WAY"
-- Dr. Ella Leppert (my HS history teacher)

I get the impression that there's been a lack of "following through" (as per the Eddie Rickenbacker quote "I shall give you a 6 word formula for Success: First, Think things through..then FOLLOW THROUGH")

TM was doing more "spending money" than "thinking through".

Judging from the lack of planning/forethought at TM (their management team), mainly not putting in place a short/medium/long term R&D program (Racing & Academia), most researchers (PhD level) would choose to stay away from the impending implosion at TM.

All they were (& still are) doing is:

- building up hype & getting VC funding

- "throwing money at the problem"
there is some innovation, however

Not impressed. But, I give them high marks for entrepeneurship, Vision, & "waking up the industry". The latter is probably their greatest contribution.

BTW, at the UIUC alumni awards honoring Martin, also was Dr. Alan Bovik (we got our PhDs at the same time '84, my PhD advisor was on his thesis committee):

Alumni award winners announced - ECE Illinois - U of I (http://www.ece.uiuc.edu/news/headlines/hl-alumni-awards-2008.html)

His PhD advisor (David Munson) succeeded Ed Davidson (Martin's mentor @UIUC, mine also) as Dept Head EE Dept/Univ of Michigan. Alan used our labs (AARG) hi-speed Image Buffer (Air Force funded project), which was wire-wrapped by Martin while he was summer '81 intern (designed by R. Fletcher). I also designed & wire-wrapped an interface board for that image buffer.

"Go into it [ project ], with a GROUP OF PEOPLE"
-- Dr. XX, Caltech CS Dept

Bottomline:
There are a LOT of UIUC alumni, which could be useful weapons for Martin's future startup. Many of them are not only smart, but in powerful positions as well. (Director of Research & VP Corporate Technology @Intel, who was a summer '81 intern w/Martin). The R&D Inst could happen with a few emails & phone calls, via a "top down" approach.

"It's all about TRUST"
-- Mario Andretti

One lesson learned from TM, is that Martin was dealing with people he never worked with ("strangers"). The aforementioned UIUC alumni are less likely to screw you, there's a Law of Brotherhood going on.

"In a time of Need, YOU KNOW WHO YOUR REAL FRIENDS ARE"
"that's what friends are for"

My principal motivation is to help an old friend (Martin), I really had no interest in Alternative Energy or EV. Seriously. Funny thing happened, as I got more involved with a solution for Martin, I began to get INTO the whole Alternative Energy thing. I'm a fan now, & probably "jumping into the game" like Martin did.

[TEG]

chimpanzee:

Any idea why Martin never seems to respond to your posts?

With all the name dropping and idea proposing you have done, has he seen fit to contact you about them?

[chimpanzee]

Some earlier, related posts were here... (http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/off-topic/1558-pop-mech-cars-candidates.html#post11973)

Related other articles:

General Motors (GM): We Deserve A Bailout, Too (http://www.clusterstock.com/2008/8/general-motors-gm-we-deserve-a-bailout-too)

Bailout Watch 38: GM President Does His Own Spinning | The Truth About Cars (http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/gm-president-does-his-own-spinning/)

So do we have to put up our tax dollars to ensure that the Volt gets built?
http://www.antoniothornton.com/images/bp-carrot-stick.jpg

What would happen if we loaned $25 billion to Tesla instead?!

I've been making my case know, about setting up a National Center for Energy Applications (to parallel the NCSA/National Ctr for Supercomputing Applications, that was founded by Dr. Larry Smarr/UIUC back in the 80's), as a virtual R&D Inst that is spread out "virtually" at leading Academic Institutions in USA.

It would help EV companies like TM, to lessen the burden of "Pushing the Technology" (which often "exceeds the limits", & creates engineering challenges & time-sensitive crises). It might have avoided last years crisis.

It would include:

1) Caltech
illustrious track record in Alternative Energy & Automotive. Dr. Paul Macready (Caltech aeronautics PhD) who founded Aerovironment, whose contract work for Hughes (partner with GM for EV1) was instrumental for EV1. This is where A. Cocconi & W. Rippel did their pioneering work, which led AC to found AC Propulsion. Which is where Martin was led to, in his search for an off-the-shelf EV sportscar. In the end, TM licensed ACP's PEM for the Roadster.

Produced the legendary Jim Hall, who invented "ground effects" for Auto Racing (Indycar & Formula 1). He is on the Advisory Board, for the Caltech Mech. Eng Dept.

2) UIUC
produced Martin Eberhard, co-founder of Tesla Motors. Another UIUC/Coordinated Science Laboratory/AARG alumni (same generation as Martin, early 80's) is Dr. Steve Cross, who is Vice-President of Georgia-Tech & President of GTRI/Georgia-Tech Research Inst, the latter which is involved with battery-technology research (http://www.gtri.gatech.edu/news/transportation-secretary-visits-gtri).

It also produced Dr. yyy (PhD '94, EE/Artificial Intelligence, the same field as Martin & me @UIUC/EE), who is now Vice-President & Director of Research of YYY (800 million dollar govt contractor in Virginia), whose company was involved with the LIVE Iridium vehicle-tracking for the DARPA Grand Challenge '05 (http://www.darpa.mil/grandchallenge05/gcorg/index.html). I did a successful project with him/YYY in 2006 (http://www.seeleyracing.com/main.html)

Martin's mentor Dr. Ed Davidson went on to Univ of Michigan/EE Dept as dept head. I last spoke with Ed in 2001, about my concept for an Interdiscipinary R&D Inst. Another UIUC EE prof (David Munson), also became UofM/EE Dept head (PhD advisor to A. Bovik/UT Austin, who received a UIUC alumni award a week ago on Sept 5, along with Martin (http://www.ece.uiuc.edu/news/headlines/hl-alumni-awards-2008.html)). Think of the connections to Michigan based auto industry (GM, Ford, Chrysler, et al) that they have. Hint: "drive by wire" (computers in the control loop), an EE specialty.

3) Georgia-Tech & GTRI
see above. Leading engineering univ. At the time Martin & I were at UIUC, MIT was ranked #1, Stanford & UIUC were tied for 2nd.

S. Cross's ex-Gatech colleague is now President of Caltech. There is cross over with the above universities, so a Collaborative/Cooperative effort betweeen Caltech/Georgia-Tech/UIUC is even more probable.

4) UC San Diego/CALIT2
Dr. Larry Smarr (ex UIUC prof, founder of NCSA while at UIUC) moved on to lead CALIT2 (http://www.calit2.net). The latter is leveraging Communications Technology to "help the emerging Economy of California". They have automotive related projects, so TM is a potential industrial partner. L. Smarr has experience going to Washington DC, pitching a proposal (with the RIGHT strategy), knowing Washington contacts, etc

Martin's co-summer intern '81 at Coordinated Science Lab/AARG was Andrew Chien (MIT PhD Computer Science) who became professor @UCSD. BTW, AC's dad was Martin's supervisor that summer. He recently moved on to Intel, as Director of Research & VP of Corporate Technology. His interest is Inference Computing (part of Ubiquitous Computing), which is related to my idea of using mobile-media-solutions for a Distributed Architecture for remote R&D infrastructure. More importantly, Intel could easily be an Industrial Partner for "drive by wire", e.g. microprocessors. There's a link to Caltech, since the co-founder of Intel is Gordon Moore (Caltech alumni), who makes philanthropic donations to Caltech.

5) Stanford
their DARPA Grand Challenge team (http://www.darpa.mil/grandchallenge05/gcorg/index.html) (led by Dr. Sebastian Thrun, a CMU alumni) won in a Red Bull sponsored VW Touareg.

6) CMU
Dr. Steve Cross went thru CMU (Director of SEI/Software Engineering Inst (http://www.sei.cmu.edu/)), before he moved on to Georgia-Tech. CMU has a strong Artificial Intelligence/Vision/Robotics program (at the time Martin & I were at the "AI lab" at UIUC: MIT, Stanford, CMU were the "big 3"). They were the favorites in the DARPA Grand Challenge '05 (http://www.darpa.mil/grandchallenge05/gcorg/index.html), & ended up winning the followup Urban Challenge (http://www.darpa.mil/GRANDCHALLENGE/) (autonomous navigation vehicles in urban setting). I almost got hired after getting my PhD '84 here, & know Takeo Kanade. I just met him (http://www.flickr.com/photos/chimpanzee/sets/72157606777374522/) (the last time we met was at the '84 IJCPR/Int'l Joint Conference on Pattern Recognition in Montreal, where I gave a paper) at the recent SIGGRAPH 2008 conference (http://www.caltechscience.com/08siggraph/index.html).

7) Univ of Michigan
Martin's mentor Dr. Ed Davidson ended up Dept Head at EE dept. David Munson (UIUC EE prof) later became dept head as well. Think of the connections with Michigan based automotive firms like GM, Ford, Chrysler, et al.

8) MIT
name speaks for itself. A leading researcher (Chemistry dept) for future battery technology is there.

The above is a sample "dream team" of powerhouse Academic Partners.

Industrial Partners candidates include

1) TM

2) Fraunhofer Inst (http://www.fraunhofer.de/EN/index.jsp)
they are designed to help German Industry like Daimler Benz, Volkswagen, BMW, by being pro-active in search/solution of engineering problems..BEFORE they arise in manufacturing). I've been in touch with these people since 2001 (when I began to formulate my concept for an Interdisciplinary R&D Inst), & just renewed some contacts at the recent SIGGRAPH 2008 conference. I met a German CS prof (w/Fraunhofer Inst) (http://www.flickr.com/photos/chimpanzee/sets/72157606777472208/), who was excited about my idea involving TM.

3) Northrop-Grumman (http://www.northropgrumman.com/)
1 of the Caltech Mech Eng profs is on sabbatical to NG, I believe to explore the Alternative Energy option. There is an Aerospace + Alternative Energy paradigm, i.e. the Technology for the former can be translated/transferred to the latter. Aerovironment (Aeronautics + Environment) founded by Dr. Paul Macready (Caltech alumni, aeronautics PhD) was probably the 1st to demonstrate this concept.

one of my Dad's PhD students is high up @NG (Houston), & I've recently contacted him. This hi-level contact (& others above) are key to a "top-down" approach to getting some Infrastructure created for Alternative Energy.

4) Boeing (http://www.boeing.com/)
1 of my Dad's (who was Dept Head Aeronautical/Astronautical Eng @UIUC) PhD students ended up Program Mgr for the Space Shuttle Division. My dad has extensive contacts with Boeing, his consulting work with them dates back to the 50's. Again, the Aerospace + Alternative Energy paradigm is relevant. With the political hype for Alternative Energy in full swing (subsidies, loans, etc), Aerospace companies will be eager to "jump in the game"

=========


What would happen if we loaned $25 billion to Tesla instead?!

The appropriate question is

"What would happen if the powers-to-be in Washington got their sh*t together ("reinvented themselves") & designed a Collaborative/Cooperative Infrastructure (like Japan does for Govt & Industry) to ACCELERATE the development of Alternative Energy in this country?"

The above would include this virtual R&D Inst (located at powerhouse American universities, with Industrial Partners like TM), as an "R&D engine" for Alternative Energy companies. It would also include a comprehensive program to subsidize Entrepeneurial activity in Alternative Energy. Say, Martin's next entrepeneurial venture.

People like L. Smarr (who has gone to Washington, pitched a proposal, & funded the founding of NCSA), M. Eberhard (who has testified on Congressional panels), Dr. Steve Cross (VP of Georgia-Tech & President of GTRI, who has testified about Internet Security at Congressional Panel), & others (like Bob Lutz/GM, who is friendly w/Martin) need to be recruited to do the above. All 3 are UIUC alumni, have brand-name-recognition & are in a position of power.

[ CONTINUED ]

[chimpanzee]

I need more feedback from the "smarter than the average bear" members on this forum, to fine-tune the above. Then, a proposal can be written.

"Talk the talk, walk the walk"

My verbal hyperactivity of recent, is towards the latter: getting sh*t done, making things happen. I view it as a continuation of what Martin has started (with his co-founding of Tesla Motors)

"Life is 20% what happens to you, 80% HOW YOU RESPOND TO IT"
-- a wise man once said

The events of last year at TM, are suggesting a future response. Hopefully, it can be conducive towards an _accelerated_ movement by US Govt & Industry/Academia towards a cool Needs/Solution package for Alternative Energy. There's a saying in Business "Timing is Everything". The outrageous gas prices & downturn in Economy, might be the perfect stimulus to get the Washington characters motivated to design something to boost the American economy.

[chimpanzee]

chimpanzee:

Any idea why Martin never seems to respond to your posts?

With all the name dropping and idea proposing you have done, has he seen fit to contact you about them?

I don't know, only he knows.

Probably, the Confidentiality factor in any future business venture.
[ the danger of sharks lurking, & stealing idea is always present. Story of my life.

I know full well I'm taking a risk, that some scoundrel out there could run with my idea. However, if I don't go public with the general idea, I could "miss the boat" by not addressing the needs of the eventual customer target..Tesla Roadster freaks on this forum ]

Also, there's that non-disparaging clause he signed, maybe his lawyer advised to play it safe & stay mum.

I get the impression he's pre-occupied with his own program these days. It looks like getting his Roadster & enjoying it (well deserved) was a priority this summer. It also looks like he has his own tight group of trusted friends, I'm a distant memory.

Name dropping is just that..naming names. All those people I KNOW, & have had previous experience with. Sure beats posting on Internet forums to the effect of:

"here's an article about the Roadster"
"here's a video about the Roadster"
"that sucks!"
"that's great!"
"I got my Roadster"
"I'm still waiting for my Roadster"

It's all "talk the talk", & no "walk the walk". What are YOU doing as far as making an effort to contribute to Alternative Energy?

"In the game of Life, there are passengers & there are drivers. Which are you?"
-- Volkswagen commercial

Martin is an example of a "driver", actively getting out & creating something (TM). Posting on forums is "passenger", watching the world go by passively. I'm naming contacts (mostly UIUC alumni, so they are less LIKELY to screw Martin in his next venture), for the purpose of creating an R&D Inst to help future Alternative Energy companies.


What I've done publicly (in order to stimulate some feedback from this forum, afterall what matters in any business is the CUSTOMER), is no different what people do at conferences. Trading small talk, inter-dispersed with some technical discussion. At the recent SIGGRAPH 2008 conference, I heard all sorts of worthless small talk that I found annoying. (example: a Columbia CS prof being wooed to Cornell, & his emailing pictures of himself in a coat to his former colleagues at Stanford & Caltech, "is this ok for New York winter?"). I really wonder about these people & their work ethic.

Example:
I've already done a project with YYY (Dr. yyy, who is a UIUC EE/Artificial Intelligence alumni like Martin & me), where the "top-down"approach worked. Contact through DARPA was made in 3 hrs, Dr. yyy contacted me via email 2hrs later, we traded mutual UIUC information, a conference call was arranged (him & his lead engineer for the DARPA GC '05 (http://www.darpa.mil/grandchallenge05/gcorg/index.html)), & a successful project was completed. It completely avoided the "bottom up" approach of proposal writing, submission (competing with a zillion other proposals), waiting, & probably getting a rejection.

Sometimes the best approach is in person, or the phone. Email & forums is still a little virtual & "distant". Take the case when Martin met with EM for a couple hrs, & had a handshake deal for xxx million. It was all done in person & verbal face-to-face. That's how TM got off the ground.

I had some communications issues w/Caltech profs, even my best contact over there (CS Dept) is totally unresponsive via email. Aargh. I have to go there PHYSICALLY, & he will be open & spend time with me. I did the same with a Mech Eng prof @Caltech. Another guy at ME Dept FINALLY called me back, & when I confronted him about the lack of communication via email, he told me "many professors won't even reply to emails from other professors"!! WTF.

Personal reference is really important in getting a job. If you call or email a professor, their "filters" (secretaries) will screen you. If you are not on their white-list, you're outta luck! When I was at JPL, my colleague was a world renowned researcher, & a secretary said "Jim will talk to xx, xx1, yy, yy1"..that's it. When I made some phone queries over to Georgia-Tech back in '05, I got in a heated exchanges with the departmental secretary. I asked them how they have any qualifications to screen technical people (if they are non-technical people to begin with). Eventually, I did get through to the Assoc Director of GTRI, who called me back. The researcher doing battery technology research finally called me back as well. Some profs I have to call AT HOME, to get a hold of them! (advice: don't do this)

I met a really smart researcher (woman at AMD/ATI) at SIGGRAPH 2008 who gave an outstanding demo, & my intial email to her went unanswered. So, I called her up, & she sent me an email response. She told me she just got back from the conference, & was hopelessly behind on catching up with her email. People are simply thrashed at work.

One of my ex colleagues (Georgia-Tech CS prof) told me "you can't get anything done during the day, only time is at night". These people are so busy during the day, many just don't answer the phone PERIOD. I know one MIT physics prof who gets offended if ANYONE attempts to interrupt him with a phone call during the day! (which I find offensive) He's that militant about time-management. Other people are totally opposite, very open & accessible (e.g., a Caltech theoretical physicists working on Quantum Computing & a well known Caltech geophysicist. Both are cordial/relaxed, & will spend time with me when I call them out of the blue). Some people are extremely PROFESSIONAL, like Dr. Ed Davidson & xx (ex MIT geophysicist, a woman). I left messages on both their answering machines, & both called me back promptly! That's rare (Colin Powell's peeve after leaving the Military, is unanswered phone messages). Ed Davidson was Martin's mentor @UIUC, & he certainly can get the ball rolling with me (former Dept Head @Univ of Michigan/EE dept). He told me so back in 2001, he had issues with NSF "compartmentalization" (i.e., they don't respond well to Interdisciplinary proposals).

I'm going forward with my idea, I've already picked up some key contacts. Just verbal discussion with people at SIGGRAPH (one guy sits on NSF review panels, & has been involved with Infrastructure Development of his own..33 million funded), gets the ball rolling. Another guy responded excitedly, via email. Look at how Steven Spielberg got his break: he was a nobody, waited outside the studio to make his pitch to a VIP executive..& the rest, as they say, is History! Personal contact is key, as opposed to submitting a proposal that gets stacked with zillion other ones..rejection is the probably outcome.

Heck, I can just motor on & somebody will respond. Just power your way through the problem, that's my modus-operanda.

"Victory belongs to the Most Persevering"
-- Napoleon

[TEG]

It's all "talk the talk", & no "walk the walk". What are YOU doing as far as making an effort to contribute to Alternative Energy?
Just personal efforts like you. Spent all my savings on solar panels and a utilitarian EV to commute to work. Made my house more efficient.


"In the game of Life, there are passengers & there are drivers. Which are you?"
Mostly a passenger myself, looking for good drivers.

I hang out on these forums mostly because I find it interesting, and a learning experience.


Martin is an example of a "driver", actively getting out & creating something.

Yes, he is. He also (like many other highly intelligent, successful people I have met) will ignore you unless you are tuned into his wavelength.

[bill]

My wife and I own a small Pharmaceutical manufacturing company (Mom and Pop if you wish). I don't know a lot about cars. R&D has been our lifeblood. We recently obtained approval to produce a cancer drug and are designing a multitude of new products and technology to be produced and distributed overseas. Also, we expect to get into areas of Northern Africa where the people have nothing.

Over the years, we found that the most productive and creative R&D starts in house.

We work with some of the top independent scientists in the world. They provide us with science. We then develop our formulations around that. In a number of cases, we disagree
with the science and design accordingly.

We found that sending R&D to outside firms is a roll of the dice. Too many times you have nothing to show for it. It is better to take a very small piece of the puzzle and give it to people who have good expertise in a specific area.

TM has done an outstanding job with the roadster. Their approach has worked. We are simply making too much of a fuss over problems, real or imagined.

The only mistake I see so far was eliminating Martin. From what I read, he is genuine and a truly outstanding individual. I hope to meet him someday..!!!

[vfx]

I need more feedback from the "smarter than the average bear" members on this forum..

That leaves me out! :tongue:

[SByer]

Chimpanzee, more signal, less noise. There are interesting nuggets in your posts, but the name dropping and having to dig through them means that, well, I skip them sometimes (don't know about others).

I don't know about the kinds of items Martin develops, but I do know about software. For us, collaborating with university researchers has an "interesting" pay-off rate, but really requires another 90% of the work to be done to productize it (Pareto principle variant (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle)). Dealing with those who haven't actually ever shipped a product to customers can be frustrating, as they don't understand the gap between what they've produced and what is really needed. It's not quite demo-ware - it's often got pieces of real functionality and good technical qualifications behind it.

That remaining engineering work is the development part of R&D - and the part that pure researchers often overlook and/or underestimate significantly. Being "downstream" from the research lets me see and appreciate the level of work that goes into that part of it. The best researchers to work with are those that have had enough productizing experience to keep in mind the amount and significance of the "other" part of the work.

Just trying to help...

[Takumi]

I need more feedback from the "smarter than the average bear"

Me too! I'm on the forum to learn from the likes of you and try and spread the word to others such as myself.

[domenick]

I need more feedback from the "smarter than the average bear" members on this forum, to fine-tune the above. ...

Fold.

I'm not even smart enough to see the point of more ecumenical rigmarole.

[TEG]

Slightly related:
Battleground Earth Episode: Duel in the Desert : Planet Green (http://planetgreen.discovery.com/tv/battleground-earth/episode-duel-desert.html)

[TEG]

From Tesla Motors - think (http://www.teslamotors.com/blog2/?p=64) :
"...The $250 million facility will be home to a Model S assembly plant, corporate headquarters and a cutting-edge R&D campus...."

[chimpanzee]

I'd be more excited if they "delivered" 8 cars in one day. Heck, even 8 cars in a week would be nice.

This is all wishful thinking.

In everyone's dreams, this is the story-line.

I just got off the phone with a PV/Photovoltaic researcher (group leader) at NREL (http://www.nrel.gov/). We were reviewing our past experiences..inefficiency at Govt labs (CoB/"Curse of Beauracracy"). He pointed out small lean/mean/rock-and-roll-machines can bypass this sloth. It was a surprise to me (& many), that TM fell victim to CoB despite their startup lean-ness.

"It's good to be IDEALISTIC!"
-- Caltech CS prof, friend of mine

"grounded in Reality"
"staying in touch with Reality"

All the great scientific discoveries (& entrepeneurial breakthroughs) came about from dreamers. M. Eberhard is the dreamer behind TM. The Ideal drives a human effort to make a discovery (in Science), or a product (in Business). However, there are Realistic obstacles to be overcome. TM got their wake up call last year, with the tranmission issue. Durability/Reliability issues (after 2K miles) was a signal that they had to "get back to Reality". An R&D program would have protected them from this anomaly. It takes TIME to work out these engineering snafus. What did TM do? Change supplier, without letting Xtrac do development

[ as they did in Offroad, where their development partner (http://agmmotorsports.blogspot.com/) worked thru breakage issues in 2007, & successfully came up with a solution. 1st place, 3rd place (podium), 1st place (2 weekends ago)..looking to Nov's Baja 1000 to take home the season points championship ]

& heave the problem to Magna. Who in turn, couldn't do it "overnight" & needed time for development. TM viewed this whole deal as "throwing money at the problem", like buying something off-the-shelf (with minimal development).

1) Knowledge Consumerism
throwing money at the problem

2) Knowledge Creation
R&D Program, Academic ("Book Knowledge") & Auto Racing ("Real World Knowledge")

They were doing 1), instead of doing 1+2. AND, so far as I know, they haven't made adjustments/changes to do 1+2. I hear of some auto racing thing, but nothing like the Xtrac development program in Offroad. Contracts signed, results produced, WINS in major auto races (beating world-class competition).

I've already made contact with the principals above, VP of Xtrac, owner of offroad development partner (I know the owner, who is a supporter of my project). Also, the Caltech Mech Eng prof (faculty advisor for the Caltech DARPA Grand Challenge team) & just now my NREL contact (high-school classmate, PhD U of Arizona in Materials Science, PV researcher). A meeting is planned soon, to fine-tune the concept for a virtual R&D Institute to target Alternative Energy companies like Tesla Motors. We already have a "valdiation prototype" (above R&D program in offroad) for a 2-speed Xtrac tranny, that can be "crossed over" to pavement applications. Funding should be straightfoward, they like concrete stuff with validation runs.

[chimpanzee]

From Tesla Motors - think (http://www.teslamotors.com/blog2/?p=64) :
"...The $250 million facility will be home to a Model S assembly plant, corporate headquarters and a cutting-edge R&D campus...."

"In order to Solve the Problem, you must first UNDERSTAND IT"
-- Einstein

That reference by TM to "cutting edge R&D campus" is just that..TALK.

I've made numerous references to how TM failed to setup an R&D program (short/medium/long term) to "cover themselves". Sure enough, they got bit by the transmission snafu. 2nd, they didn't give Xtrac (or Magna) the TIME (cursed word in any domain, Business or Research) to do some development. Whereas, Xtrac (heavily involved in Auto Racing: Formula 1, Rally, Indycar, Offroad) has its own development program, with development partners. Sure enough, Xtrac's development partner (http://agmmotorsports.blogspot.com/) (sharp, well run team that's INTO TECHNOLOGY) diligently worked through 2007 tranny breakage & came up with a successful solution for 2008. 1st, 3rd (podium), 1st (2 weekends ago, 300 mile sprint race)..looking forward to November Baja 1000 for a season points championship. How did they do it?

"Slow & Steady wins the Race"
-- fable, Tortoise & Hare

"Steady as she goes"
-- Naval saying

"Smooth is Fast"
-- Robby Gordon, CART racer (California 500 @Fontana)

"The key is knowing when to go Fast [ powerline roads ], when to go Slow [ slow rocky sections, which are dangerous ]"
-- Ivan "Ironman" Stewart

They demonstrated Patience, & took the TIME to do thing right.

Tesla Motors was on a fast-pace, trying to do it overnight, trying to be everything to everyone (niche-market of sportscars & mass-market sedan), playing "loose & fast". I give credit for their daring/bravado, but you have to Manage Risk.

"You can't win it on the First Lap, but YOU CAN CERTAINLY LOSE IT"
-- auto racing saying

case in point:
YouTube - F1 CRASH (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pakodbFxnxE)

Basically, TM went on a "suicide mission". Hey, let's just go-for-it, & see what happens..maybe we'll get lucky. They dang nearly pulled it off, they attempted a "throw $$ at the problem" (minimal development, just contract vendors & see what they come up with) approach.

I mean, seriously. The above talk about a "state of the art R&D program"..man that's an UNDERTAKING in itself. My advisors (several discussions already, including my NREL friend the PV/Photovoltaic researcher) told me MY thing is a MONSTER in itself. Requires infrastructure, funding, recruiting people..it's like a TM startup in ITSELF!! "One step at at a time" was the advice (to follow my own advice, my criticism of TM), you can't "make it overnight". Take it easy.

"I grew up in the mountains. I learned something: you have to PACE yourself"
-- xx, CNN interview, Pakistani immigrant (CEO of XX, major furniture retailer in USA)

That thing by TM is just some hastily worded PR (probably based on my comments here on TMC).

I attended a course on "The Art of NSF Grant Writing" at SIGGRAPH 2008, & the NSF people were emphasizing the fact that "concrete" things have preference (with some validation prototypes), which have near-term payouts. They're CONSERVATIVE, they won't take risk on "blue sky" pie-in-the-sky projects. The days of Bell Laboratories "Curiosity Research"

[ which led to the invention of the Transistor..Bardeen was a UIUC Physics/EE prof btw, his 1st PhD student was Nick Holonyak who invented the LED. An article about him was in the same UIUC/EE/Resonance newsletter, that wrote up Martin/Tesla ]

are pretty much gone. Everyone is into "instant gratification". No one is laying the foundation for long-term RoI/Return on Investment, which is a BIG mistake. I was at the SIGGRAPH 2001 conference, where the NSF Program Director (Divison of Computer-Communication Research Numeric, Symbolic, & Geometric Computation) asked the NYU CS prof (Caltech PhD):

"what do we have to do today..to put us where we want to be 10 yrs..20 yrs down the line?"

This is the question TM didn't ask (otherwise they would have put in a R&D program, say with target dates of 1,2 4 years), & thus we are where we are today. They don't have an R&D program (& a 3rd party R&D Institute like I'm talking about, will take TIME to get going), & just saying "we gonna have state of art R&D"..is just HOT AIR. That's the exact words of my NREL PV researcher friend, he hears it ALL THE TIME. He was going to fly out here (on NREL's dollar), & meet with me (hopefully Martin, since he's 2 miles from me in Sierra Madre..I shop at the Vons on Sierra Madre Blvd), Caltech profs (Mechanical Eng, Computer Science), & others. We're making a list. His funding comes from DoE/Dept of Energy (the place where HEP/High Energy Physics gets their funding & where there is 80 million..?..in subsidies designed for TM), he's tops in his field. Friends with owners & CTO's of many solar energy startups & companies. He tells me there is 1 billion of VC money being targeted for his field: Photovoltaics. He almost left to joint a startup, & his long term future is probably there.

Like I say, some more work is need to "fine tune" the Concept. Certainly, an immediate Need (2-speed transmission for the Roadster) can be answered by a R&D Institute Solution. The "validation prototype" result in Offroad (see above), using the concept of crossover as per Interdisciplinary Research, will almost assuredly get it funded. Just a little more work, & a 2-speed pavement tranny could be made available to Roadster clients. The magic of R&D, "what goes around [ investment ] comes around [ payoff ]". In the end, Elon Musk gets what he wants. But, at the price of ejecting Martin (UIUC alumni), Wally Rippel (Caltech/Aerovironment alumni), Judy Estrin (icon in Silicon Valley startups), et al.

I say, TM has put themselves in a hole. They have basically eliminated any hirees from UIUC, Caltech (& others). No R&D plans in sight, & they CONTINUE to spend $$ like there's no tomorrow..hiring/poaching all these big names from Mazda, et al.

"You can have all the $$, you can keep spending $$, but you will never have enough $$"
-- Rob MacCachren, Offroad Racing Champ (http://blip.tv/?y=0;search=maccachren;x=0;s=search;page=2)

[ he jumped into a Pro 2 "cold" (http://blip.tv/file/205680/) & was a threat for a win everytime out (http://blip.tv/file/401532/), he was 2007 Driver of the Year (http://blip.tv/file/214035/) ]

Offroad Racing is loaded with wealthy guys (1 donor to my project has 300 million, another one makes 7 million profit PER DAY, a Vegas casino executive got a 30 million dollar bonus, etc), & everyone KNOWS..you can burn through cash in a HURRY! Despite seemingly unlimited funds, you still have to abide by:

"It's not how much $$ you have, but HOW WISELY YOU SPEND IT"
"It's not what equipment you have, BUT HOW WELL YOU USE IT"

I hate to say it, but I get this feeling that TM is still in this modus-operanda of "throwing $$ at the problem". They need to sit down, CALM DOWN, & figure out a plan. Bring in some specialists (especially R&D), & get some experienced professionals to bear on the problem:

"A GOOD PLAN, will beat a Good Idea, anyday..10 to 1"
"There are SCOUNDRELS out there!"
-- BB, offroad racing marketing guru, private communication

I think TM is certainly a good idea (Martin the Dreamer, like Dr. Paul Macready/Aerovironment..a self-acknowledged dreamer). But, deep-down there was a flaw to the Plan, & sure enough Murphy's Law manifested itself in the tranny issue. Then, the Dr. Jekyll & Mr Hyde multiple personality made its presence felt ("it starts from the Top"), resulting in the Stealth Bloodbath. Whoah. Key question is:

"What is the next step? What do we have to do NOW..to put ourselves in a position to Win [ Alternative Energy ] 5 yrs..10 yrs..20 yrs from now"

"Life is 20% what happens to you..80% HOW YOU RESPOND TO IT"
-- a wise man once said

There's a bunch of Martin's ex-UIUC officemates lurking around in high positions & bigname companies (Intel Director of Research & VP Corporate Technology) & Universities (VP of Georgia-Tech & President of GTRI whose colleague is now President of Caltech, head of UC San Diego/CALIT2, UIUC connection). I might be the monkey-boy factor, a primate gone ape-sh*t who is able to see all these connections (& attacked as a name-dropper). Oh yeah.

Honestly, I wasn't that turned on by EV or Alternative Energy..but I'm really into it. It dovetails perfectly with my current focus on HEP/High Energy Physics (whose main funding source is DoE/Dept of Energy), & there's quite a beautiful/elegant concept linking the two. There's a LOT of activity within the Physics/Science community (scores of Nobel Laureates, & prominent scientists) to do a better job of Science Outreach to the public. Guess what? The Alternative Energy bandwagon is perfect, with the Tesla Roadster as the showpiece "product".

PS

I just found an ally, a Space Shuttle Astronaut (key figure in HST servicing missions. BTW, the Shuttle commander for the last servicing mission is a UIUC Aerospace Eng grad, Scot Altman):

"test" Multimedia Coverage of "PATS 2008" conference: Sat/Talks (http://pats2008.blogspot.com/search/label/Sat%2FTalks)

A "blue sky" project like "Interdisciplinary Collaborative/Cooperative R&D Inst targeting Alternative Energy" needs some backing from powerful iconic figures. What better guy, is a mission specialist for Space Shuttle/HST missions? The Space Shuttle is a "platform for Technology" (technical as well as political), so the same "platform for Technology" is required for Alternative Energy. R&D, & other stuff.

[chimpanzee]

Just personal efforts like you. Spent all my savings on solar panels and a utilitarian EV to commute to work. Made my house more efficient.


Mostly a passenger myself, looking for good drivers.

I hang out on these forums mostly because I find it interesting, and a learning experience.



Yes, he is. He also (like many other highly intelligent, successful people I have met) will ignore you unless you are tuned into his wavelength.

Thanks for the feedback TEG.

I followed everything, until the last comment "tuned into his wavelength".

Can you tell me what I might be doing/saying to cause a "rift" between 2 universes?

Martin's world is a means (Technology) towards an end (Business, profit, making societal change)? If I don't show something like a concrete product with a Business Model, then I'm irrelevant?

High Energy Physicists have this problem as well:

"If you don't have a product to show [ funding agencies ], you are considered irrelevant"
-- Dr. xxx/SLAC, theoretical physicist
[ she attended JB Straubel's talk at SLAC last fall, which was well received by the SLAC attendees. She is involved with HEP outreach programs to the Public ]

I hate to say it, but the lack of perspective (appreciation of "Book Knowledge", manifesting itself in R&D) hurt Tesla Motors. Their management simply didn't respect this component, & resulted in an engineering crisis. Which in turn, caused a personnel crisis.

By the same token, I was never into the "big deal" at UIUC, during the time Martin & I were engineering students. The hot thing was to get a BS in Engineering, MBA (masters in Business Administration), & the supposedly you were hot sh*t in taking on the Market. My interest in Engineering was never about Product, but Knowledge.

"I'm interested in KNOWLEDGE..not Product!"
"It's not the hardware, but the BRAIN we're interested in!"
-- Dr Misha Mahowald (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misha_Mahowald), Neuromorphic Engineer (Caltech PhD, Dr. Carver Mead's star student)

[ she was a Biologist who entered the Interdisciplinary Field of Computional Neural Sciences, marriage of Biology, Physics, Electrical Engineering. She was building *custom* silicon circuits that emulated the nonlinear I/O response curves of neurons, that could "see". A Silicon retina. She added a 2nd eye, some stereo algorithms..whoala stereo silicon retina.

Whereas myself & Martin were using off-the-shelf digital hardware (see the Resonance article, where he used Intel 8051 microprocessors (http://engineering.illinois.edu/news/rss.php?xId=072807840798)) *general purpose ICs* to build robots, computer vision systems, etc. My PhD thesis was in the area Computational Theory of Vision, a mathematical (physics & geometry) reductionist approach to stereo vision (http://www.caltechscience.com/turk/toronto83.html). Totally mathematical/computational algorithmic approach, validated by computer simulation. Not a piece of hardware was used! ]

I've gone thru this before, the universe I come from is "high-end research". Serious "book knowledge" stuff, but I have a lot of real-world skills/knowledge. My masters thesis was in the same area as Martin's (same advisor, BTW)..hardware for Artificial Intelligence/Robotics/Computer Vision.

It's a collision of 2 universes.

Knowledge Creation (R&D) VS Knowledge Consumerism (material goods)

I talk to people from another universe, & they don't understand me. They talk to me, & they seem to be focused on material things. Take some recent comments, there is a repeated reference to name-dropping. Well, those are "data points" (access to researchers) for building a new R&D institute.

"Go into it..with a group of people"
-- Dr XX, Caltech CS prof

TM forgot to include in their group, some R&D specialists. Otherwise, we wouldn't be where we are today. Tesla Roadsters would possibly have been delivered on schedule, & sending the Automotive Industry reeling. Well, the offroad development partner for Xtrac, has developed a working gearbox (at least for offroad racing), so now it's a matter of Technology Transfer to pavement applications. As in above, a proposal to DoE should get it funded, because they like "concrete" things with "concrete" validation prototypes.

[bill]

chimpanzee

Your comments are dazzling, creative, brilliant and often amusing. It's fun to read what you write. Keep up the great work. However, let's all admit it, TM has done superbly well without your help. They have developed a incredible street machine that is both high performance and simple in design. That is the genius of what they have done. It's a demonstration of the future of EV's.

[GSP]

Chimpanzee,

I'm not sure that the NSF is so conservative. Not while risking most of their funds on the LIGO gravity wave detectors, which may not be able to detect gravity waves!

Oh well, if LIGO doesn't do the job, maybe LISA (space based gravity wave detector) will (with a whole bunch more tax dollars)!

GSP

[TEG]

Can you tell me what I might be doing/saying to cause a "rift" between 2 universes?

"Rift" is probably/possibly an overstatement. Sometimes you are "close but no cigar". Like tuning the dial you get nothing but static until you are locked on.

People like Martin are probably too busy to take you seriously unless it seems you are right in sync with what they were already thinking. Why stop and take the time to try to guide someone when there are already enough people out there doing exactly what you want?

Anyways, I don't speak for Martin and don't really know what he is thinking. Just speculating... (which I have been trying to avoid lately but I felt compelled by your incessant effort with little response).

[doug]

Oh well, if LIGO doesn't do the job, maybe LISA (space based gravity wave detector) will (with a whole bunch more tax dollars)!

Heh... Speaking of name dropping... Some years ago, when I was an undergrad at Cornell, I had dinner with Kip Thorne. Among other things, LIGO was one of the topics we discussed. Of course at Stanford, I have friends who work on LIGO and on LISA. I know... la tee da tee daaa.....:tongue:

[chimpanzee]

"Rift" is probably/possibly an overstatement. Sometimes you are "close but no cigar". Like tuning the dial you get nothing but static until you are locked on.

People like Martin are probably too busy to take you seriously unless it seems you are right in sync with what they were already thinking. Why stop and take the time to try to guide someone when there are already enough people out there doing exactly what you want?

Anyways, I don't speak for Martin and don't really know what he is thinking. Just speculating... (which I have been trying to avoid lately but I felt compelled by your incessant effort with little response).

I will tell you there was an amazing "event" yesterday.

I left a message on Dr. xxx answering machine (leading PV researcher of world-wide repute, at NREL/National Renewable Energy Lab/Solar (http://www.nrel.gov/solar/)). He called me back 1st thing @7:54am (someone who returns phone calls like a professional..what a concept!). Within a minute of describing the Tesla Motors situation

[ Martin founder, Roadster transmission crisis due to lack of R&D program, Stealth Bloodbath (crackpot decision from the Top), successful "validation prototype" by Xtrac's offroad development partner (http://agmmotorsports.blogspot.com/) (gearbox that got them 1st, 3rd, 1st place finishes this year), proposed virtual R&D Inst spanning universities & Industry targeting AE/Alternative Energy ]

he caught on, & we proceeded to have an intense conversation over the next hour. He's well connected among PV entrepeneurships (knows owners & CTOs, since his PV research is world-renowned, & even was lured by certain companies to leave NREL), & talked about the huge $$ (1 billion) being pumped into PV by SF based VC sources. As soon as he heard about Martin (& other Roadster clients) setting up their homes with solar arrays, he offerred to fly here (on NREL's dime) to meet with me (& others like Martin & Caltech Mechanical Eng profs..1 is on sabbatical to Northtrop-Grumman to explore the AE option. Both Martin & I are near Caltech). I emailed him a long "info packet", so he can absorb while he's on travel next week. The following week, we will try to set something up. Yes, "talk the talk" is moving towards "walk the walk".

Back to your original point: "compelled by your incessant effort with little response"

I'm sensing that the response is correlated with which "universe" one is from. My PV researcher friend @NREL (Materials Science PhD, U of Arizona, my high-school classmate..HS which was 1 block away from UIUC/Coordinated Scienc Lab where Martin did his '81 summer internship with our AARG lab) is from my "universe"..that of high-end research. Martin & Judy Estrin are the movers-shakers in Industry which use Technology ("means") towards an End ("societal change"). I recall an interview with Judy Estrin, where she pointed to diagram: "this is where we are..& where we want to go" (something like that). She was describing how "theoretical novelty" (academic R&D) gets transformed into "useful reality" (companies who built products). Good article here, where J. Estrin recognizes the value of R&D (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/judy-estrin/innovation-crucial-to-our_b_123556.html) (& how this country is losing it)


It seems like innovation in many fields -- from Web 2.0 to personalized medicine -- is accelerating at a rapid pace in the United States, right?

Wrong. In fact, the underlying infrastructure of research, development, and application that produced these marvels -- as well as world-changing innovations like the Internet -- has drastically deteriorated in the U.S. in recent years. The decline of what I call our "Innovation Ecosystem" poses a grave threat to both the economic prosperity of our country and the security of our children's future. The state of innovation is a critical issue that should be getting more attention in the days leading up to the presidential election.

It's obvious from the above "event" from yesterday, that this could be of great interest to Martin's overall plan: CFPT/carbon-free personal transportation (EV + PV enhanced home power). This Dr. xxx/NREL (leading PV researcher of world-repute) has *connections* to PV companies (owners & CTOs & was even lured by them to join), told me himself that's his long-term future. He took initiative, & offerred to fly over here & talk with people. With Martin planning his next move, another entrepeneurial move in AE/Alternative Energy, well..

Standard Model:
startup a solar power company. Entrepeneurs have *indirect* access to PV researchers (Academia & Industry). There's that "information gap" between 2 universes. Things happen slowly, "Speed is Life" concept..doesn't happen.

Alternative Model:
same as above, with the following twist. Get those key contacts, go DIRECT to circumvent the "information gap". "Speed is Life" concept manifests into Execution. Things happen quickly. Dr. xxx/NREL is obviously a really interesting contact

[ my high-school classmate, UIUC grad in Ceramic Engineering & PhD U of Arizona in Materials Science, we went to a famous HS which produced 3 Nobel Laureates: Economics, Phyisics, Medicine..it's like a mini-Caltech. On UIUC campus, which attracted top talent like Martin ]

If Martin wanted to do something in EV/PV ("integrated solution" for carbon-free personal transportaton, call it CFPT), & get a jump on the competition (which is stuck on Standard Model), then an opportunity is staring at him in the mirror. Me, Dr. xxx/NREL, Martin..we're all UIUC alumni. Dr. xxx wants to setup a meeting & fly here to Pasadena..hmm.


There's a saying in Business: "Timing is Everything".

Seems like good timing (good thing Martin left TM, a "hole getting deeper" via lack of R&D foresight), people with common ancestry (UIUC) possibly coming together. Another person I need to contact is Judy Estrin. Turns out a husband/wife couple I know, a Caltech & UCLA PhD (both went thru her dad.. famous UCLA EE prof who was PhD advisor for Vinton Cerf/Internet pioneer), are now Intel researchers (computer networks) (http://www.intel.com/technology/itj/2006/v10i4/4-security/13-authors.htm). The husband worked for a company in Arcadia/CA (nearby Martin's Sierra Madre home), started by a Caltech CS professor, while his wife was working on her Caltech PhD. BTW, Martin's summer '81 co-intern at our AARG lab is now Director of Research & VP Corporate Technology (MIT PhD, former UIUC & UC San Diego Computer Science prof, his Dad was Martin's supervisor). Gordon Moore (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gordon_Moore) (Intel co-founder) has serious connections to Caltech (alumni, trustee & philantropist). I can see some kind of deal, involving Caltech & Intel with XXX. This R&D Inst or a CFPT involving PV research (something Martin might be interested in).

Here's David Baltimore's (Biologist, Nobelist in Medicine, ex Caltech president) Formula for Success:

"get a group of really smart people, great things will happen"

[ Martin & Marc were essentially using this formula to build TM, a dream team so to say (Judy Estrin was definitely a "smartie", good recruit) ]

Call it name-dropping, it's really making connections (especially with ex-alumni: Caltech, UIUC & new access-points like Intel). That's "the way the world works", as my geologist friend just told me. Schmoozing (what Dr. Kate Hutton/Caltech told me last weekend) is about finding people who you can TRUST, & then you do a Deal. "Deals are what make the world go 'round", as my lawyer friend (also HS classmate with me & Dr. xxx/NREL).

I essentially am continuing on TMC, the Transparency concept of TM blogs (when Martin was there). The sharing of information lets the powers-to-be to figure out the Needs of their Constituency (customers are king, it's their spending $$'s which drive the Business Model), & then design Solutions. This CFPT (Carbon Free Personal Transportation) concept, via EV & PV enhanced home is such a solution.

[chimpanzee]

Heh... Speaking of name dropping... Some years ago, when I was an undergrad at Cornell, I had dinner with Kip Thorne. Among other things, LIGO was one of the topics we discussed. Of course at Stanford, I have friends who work on LIGO and on LISA. I know... la tee da tee daaa.....:tongue:

Haha. Let me enhance the name-dropping. :tongue:

Okay, so my hobby is R/C electric airplanes (http://www.caltechscience.com/qtvr/pano.mov) (play with Nicad, LiIon, LiPo battery packs ad nauseum) & I fly at the Rose Bowl. Met Richard Feynman's son-in-law (who flies), A. Cocconi (flys 3D aircraft, got video of him in summer '06), a bunch of Caltech people. Like Postdoctoral scholar in DNA Computing, who just talked at the last TED conference (http://technorati.com/videos/youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DQhtYfkajeZw). Paul Macready/Aerovironment flies there (http://openweb.tvnews.vanderbilt.edu/2000-8/2000-08-25-CBS-23.html) as well.

So, I meet this one guy at the flying field. Turns out he was a Caltech grad student working on LIGO (many years ago), now a PCC engineering instructor. Man, was that a can of worms he said! Lots of politics, internal bickering/fighting where a major figure was forced out. (http://www.nytimes.com/books/00/10/29/reviews/001029.29goodstt.html) Sound familiar? (ala Tesla Motors crisis)


The whole thing almost came to grief because of a conflict of a kind that is quite common in large technology projects: a manager who has to make timely decisions to get things built on schedule and within budget runs up against a creative dreamer who wants to tinker with the design to make things better. In this case the dreamer was Caltech's Ron Dreaver, ''a short portly man with a bulbous nose and warm blue eyes,'' and the manager was Caltech's provost, Rochus Vogt, who ''with his short-clipped hair and black-framed glasses . . . strikes one as a taller and leaner Henry Kissinger.'' There is no doubt that LIGO would not exist without Vogt's formidable organizational skill, but when he summarily fired Dreaver from the project he touched off a chain of events that caused one observer to comment that Caltech needed ''to put Prozac in its water coolers.'' In the end Vogt, recently fired himself, was replaced as the project's director by Barry Barish, another Caltech professor who was liberated from his own field of high energy physics when, in 1993, Congress drove a wooden stake through the heart of the Superconducting Supercollider.

Man, does LIGO sound like a mirror of TM, or what! Big "blue sky" project, collision of management & dreamer, firing. Turmoil, still waiting for outcome..can Triumph win over Tragedy?

"If you're not FIGHTING, you're not trying HARD ENOUGH"

I don't doubt Elon Musk's motives/dreams, but he lacks Engineering background (& some management sense) to understand what last years tranny crisis boiled down to: lack of R&D program. It was NOT Martin's choice of contractors (Xtrac, Magna, etc) that was the problem (EM still thinks you can "spend your way through engineering problesm"), these kinds of engineering issues "go with the territory":

"in order to Push the Limits, sometimes you have to EXCEED THE LIMITS"

They just had to give Xtrac (or Magna) some TIME ("patience, grashopper!") to do some on-the-fly development. Well, sure enough Xtrac's offroad development partner (http://agmmotorsports.blogspot.com/) conquered the problem (1st, 3rd, 1st place finishes in 2008 races), after 2007 year of tranny breakage. "Time will tell", & it sure did!

The unfortunate long-term effect of Stealth Bloodbath, is that TM could now be blackballed by UIUC & Caltech.

[ ironically, TM fell back to a 1-speed (heroic effort by JB Straubel to re-engineer the ACP PEM, overhauling it from analog to digital), which was Martin's backup plan. So, the end result was
a massive loss in Intellectual Property: Martin, Wally Rippel, Judy Estrin. Jeezus! ]

No way would any graduating engineer (from UIUC, Caltech, or any university for that matter) work at that place, given the abusive treatment experienced by Martin & Wally Rippel (recall his TM blog entry about R. Feynman "a strange character"). The way the Roadster delivery to Martin was mishandled is even more proof. :mad:

Reminds me of my JPL experience, terrible management. I had to leave, because "I couldn't take the bullsh*t no more". The ex LIGO alumnus communicated the same experience: turmoil & BS.

[chimpanzee]

Chimpanzee,

I'm not sure that the NSF is so conservative. Not while risking most of their funds on the LIGO gravity wave detectors, which may not be able to detect gravity waves!

Oh well, if LIGO doesn't do the job, maybe LISA (space based gravity wave detector) will (with a whole bunch more tax dollars)!

GSP

Here is how the "game is played", courtesy Tom Chester of IPAC/Caltech (Kip Thorne's PhD student):

Chas Beichman Roast (http://spider.ipac.caltech.edu/staff/tchester/local/chas_roast/talk3.html)


IRAS taught chas [ Chas Beichmann, IPAC head ] many lessons, which he applied throughout the rest of his ipac career:

1) The golden rule: he who has the gold rules.

2) There are difficult people in the world that you have to learn how to deal with.

3) Schmoozing and Salesmanship are important.

I can only surmise that all the above 3 rules were applied to get LIGO approved by NSF. 1) & 3) are quite important, Money ("gold") & Power (well connected people).

Look at how Tesla Motors got started. You had an equivalent to Kip Thorne (Martin), who turned to "gold" (Elon Musk & 40 million) & Power (VC funding, Google founders, et al). 2) Difficult People, haha.

I guess it's time for a Martin Eberhard "roast". A good way to wrap up his TM phase, & launch into his next entrepeneurial project (which will save the world, & finally get Alternative Energy over the threshold). Maybe I get to part of the latter, I dunno.

[chimpanzee]

Chimpanzee, more signal, less noise. There are interesting nuggets in your posts, but the name dropping and having to dig through them means that, well, I skip them sometimes (don't know about others).

In some way, that's a good thing. Those "nuggets" could be stolen & run with by "scoundrels/opportunists". That has actually happened to me in my last Project (last 3 years). So, the "smoke screen" of name-dropping has an accidental good effect of "protection".


I don't know about the kinds of items Martin develops, but I do know about software. For us, collaborating with university researchers has an "interesting" pay-off rate, but really requires another 90% of the work to be done to productize it (Pareto principle variant (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle)). Dealing with those who haven't actually ever shipped a product to customers can be frustrating, as they don't understand the gap between what they've produced and what is really needed. It's not quite demo-ware - it's often got pieces of real functionality and good technical qualifications behind it.

I had a research colleague during grad-school (U. of Mass/Amherst), who went on to Industry, then to Georgia-Tech Computer Science Dept, then left to Microsoft. He told me how his latter job of managing software development (delivering a product) was a completely different deal, than Academia.


That remaining engineering work is the development part of R&D - and the part that pure researchers often overlook and/or underestimate significantly. Being "downstream" from the research lets me see and appreciate the level of work that goes into that part of it. The best researchers to work with are those that have had enough productizing experience to keep in mind the amount and significance of the "other" part of the work.

Just trying to help...

Totally agree.

You are basically talking about "bridging the gap" between 2 universes. R&D & Production, or between fields. The latter is called Interdisciplinary Science. The flaw is that Infrastructures like the Beckman Inst, fail to understand that researchers in one field are tied physically to a particular university dept (say, Psychology). To do Interdisciplinary Science RIGHT (say with a Beckman Inst), they need *liaisons* (people who bridge the gap, between 2 disciplines & researchers of disparate disciplines) which are stationed at the Beckman Inst.

The flaw (as pointed out by my Dad, who was a prof/Dept Head) is that many of the offices @Beckman Inst are EMPTY. Because the cognizant professor is back in his own Dept. OR, the professors office in his own Dept is EMPTY, & he is at his office at Beckman Inst. The latter is true of my PhD advisor.

During my intensive 1 hr phone disucssion with Dr. xxx/NREL Solar (http://www.nrel.gov/solar/) yesterday, he repeatedly pointed out issues with Infrastructure. Some relevant quotes:

"efficient operations to develop Technologies"
"lots of Hot Air, breaks down in Implementation"
"Business = too many managers"
"overhead rate = 3 to 1, huge overhead, huge bureacracy"
"lots of $$ chasing Technology, not that straightforward
[ e.g., 1 billion of VC for PV research ]"
"getting to Manufacturing challenging, companies making mistakes"
[ just take TM's Roadster project for example, classic case ]
"Popular Science articles only goes so far. Science is intriguing, has to make it work [ product delivery ]"
"manipulating resources into effective operation/results"

Interestingly, he is heavily involved with software (e.g., data mining)

He made an interesting contrast between software & PV research:

Software:
can work on it night & day, make it work

PV Research:
can work on it night & day, can't make it work

Case in point with TM's tranny problem. Xtrac & Magna couldn't make it work..at least on-the-spot (near time-frame). Xtrac's development partner (http://agmmotorsports.blogspot.com/) pulled it off..after ONE YEAR, just because the team is a "sharp, well-run team that's INTO TECHNOLOGY". I know the team-owner, & he's a sharp guy with roots in Europe (4 yr technical automotive degree). They do their own analysis of on-board telemetry data.

This is why Elon Musk made such a blunder in ejecting Martin, Wally Rippel, Judy Estrin. "In order to Solve a Problem, YOU MUST FIRST UNDERSTAND IT!" as per Einstein. There was some statement to the effect "certain people didn't come through, so there are consequences [ fired ]". Well, that's just BULLSH*T!! The problem was one with Management (hello!?): they didn't have the foresight to setup a short/medium/long term R&D program (say 1, 2, 4 years) to "cover themselves" for the Roadster project. Heck, it took Xtrac's offroad development partner 1 year (probably less) to figure it out! The severe shockload issue in offroad is very similar to the Roadster problem. Submit a NSF (or DoE) proposal with "validation prototype" (the successful offroad results), & there should be a funded project to build a durable/reliable 2-speed Xtrac available for the Roadster. A beautiful/elegant solution to the problem, courtesy of Interdisciplinary Science (crossover from offroad to pavement). I've already spoken to VP of Xtrac (who I've met at the offroad races) & Martin C (owner of the offroad team), & emailed info packets. Contacted a chassis designer (Formula 1, offroad, Nissan, etc & get this: he played with CVT/Continuous Variable Transmission for electric cars back in the early 90's!), & he likes the idea.

Something's gonna happen ("walk the walk") based on conversations between significant parties ("talk the talk").

[TEG]

Even with what little I know, I think you are oversimplifying things. Turmoil wasn't just about transmission problems and delivery delays.

In an effort to try to "move on", I will hold back on what I think the other issues were.

I think you are also oversimplifying to say that the transmission problems were due to lack of R&D. As far as I was concerned, Tesla was one big R&D effort from the start. They were inventing and refining a lot of things as they went. The transmission just emerged as the most visible of the myriad hurdles they were struggling to get over.

Also, as far as many people are concerned, Tesla has been a big success so far (even considering said delays and major staff churn). They still seem to be the best thing going in the EV business at the moment.

Right from the start many said "what are they thinking?" Their effort was from left field, and had a very questionable path to success (given for example all the previous examples of automotive start-ups that failed).
In my mind one of the biggest hurdles was the fact that the venture was conceived almost like a software/internet start-up which investors traditionally expect to see gains/returns quickly. Auto manufacturers are stuck in a world of supplier limitations, regulatory delays, and other things that conspire to slow them down way more than a software or small consumer device company would have to face. Having a large group of investors anxiously watching over your shoulder puts undue pressure on people to make quick/rash decisions sometimes.

Also, from what I can tell Tesla is still able to attract talent easily.

As much as anyone, I long for the days when TM was giving us a very tantalizing blog view into their thoughts, plans and struggles, but shifting focus from bloggers to the mainstream press does make sense as they gain credibility and finally start to deliver on their promises.

---

I agree with many points and statements you have made, but I have a harder time visualizing how everything will gel into something meaningful. Yes, academia, pure R&D and sales driven product development are all very different worlds. From the start I was always saying that EVs really only need direct drive gearboxes. Further research on CVTs and multi-speed gearboxes seems like a waste of time to me. As many have said time and time again the real R&D needs to happen in advanced energy storage. Many had hoped Eestor would have delivered by now. LiIon is too expensive and doesn't last long enough. Tesla has a business model that may work even with LiIon but the real tide change isn't going to happen until energy storage devices get better and cheaper.

I think Tesla has a huge uphill battle coming soon learning how to be a good customer support and post sales company. Dealing with problems and complaints of real customers is going to require the same sort of leaning curve they had to get through to figure out how to get into the auto business in the first place. Funders & early adopters are going to be more "supportive" customers, but at some point they are going to be dealing with a lot more people who have less willingness to just accept "teething pain" sorts of issues.

Martin and Marc ending up as EIRs at a VC is a healthy sign that they will be part of other interesting ventures in the not too distant future. Even if they don't show up as the visible face of a particular company they are there helping keep the big alternative energy push going. I look forward to hearing about the "next big thing".

[TEG]

By the way, I have come to the conclusion (perhaps a bit late) that airing your ideas in public like this is as likely to slam doors in your face as it is to find opportunities...

[chimpanzee]

By the way, I have come to the conclusion (perhaps a bit late) that airing your ideas in public like this is as likely to slam doors in your face as it is to find opportunities...

I've mentioned this before.

Scenario #1
confidentiality, developing concept in private amongst high-level types (VC, management types, etc), who are detached from the Market. Especially, the customer. Announce deal. Turns out the concept doesn't address customer & current market demand, it FLOPS.

Scenario #2
open architecture, share information with knowledgable/sophisticated customer based (such as TMC). Let them participate in Concept fine-tuning. Do a deal. However, the openness leaves open the chance of someone sabotaging the deal (stealing the contacts mentioned, etc)

I realize there is risk in #2, but there's that famous saying in Business:

"The biggest risk, is not taking a risk"

I defer to my friends comments about "Business has too many managers". There was a book called "The sun never sets on General Motors", where it was described that GM had 50 odd levels of management. Look at Hughes (GM contractor for EV1), whose management couldn't get the job done:

"there was meeting #1. Meeting #2 came to the conclusion meeting #1 couldn't come to a satisfactory conclusion"

That's how Aerovironment got the sub-contractor job, & where A. Cocconi did his pioneering work.

Summary:
Trying to privately come up with a valid Concept, without feedback from the Customer (the bottomline in any business), is a bigger risk. 80% of startup businesses fail.

PS
I will also say the lack of response by certain people to my private emails also triggered this public response. I was floored on Friday, when Dr. xxx (NREL/PV researcher) called me up promptly at 7:54am, & we had an intense conversation for the next hr. I think maybe my theory of "gap of universes" is true, & what Judy Estrin said (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/judy-estrin/innovation-crucial-to-our_b_123556.html) (Innovation: Crucial to our Future) really rings true:


Reviving sustainable innovation will require sweeping changes at all levels of society -- from the schoolroom, to the boardroom, to the hallways of our nation's capitol. This year will bring a welcome change at the top in Washington. But we need not only a new administration in the White House, we need a new kind of national leadership.

"What's amazing is how INTERCONNECTED a biological system is"
-- Dr David Suzuki, biologist ("Carl Sagan" of Biology, numerous TV specials)

What she's implying is more "inter-connectedness amongst the parts", this is how Biological Ecosystems function (note that J. Estrin used the phrase "Innovation Ecosystem"). Look at how Academia & Industry are pretty much vertically oriented (each dept, discipline, is a vertical thread). The lack of a MATRIX structure (horizontal threads to connect different depts & disciplines, e.g. Interdisciplinary Science) is why companies & universities, individually don't work at full "systems integration" (inter-system). Then, having companies & universities work together is another problem in itself (intra-system). I call it the Curse of Bureacracy. Some companies (likely smaller) are very efficient. Most big companies aren't. I had an incident while contacting Caltech Mechanical Eng, where I couldn't even get an email response, so I just walked over there. Only 1 prof was able to setup an appt with me. When I confronted another guy about lack of communication, he told me "some profs don't even respond to emails from other Caltech profs"..!! I took a grand-tour back in 2001 of Caltech, & found a distribution curve of response from professors. A couple guys were extremely cordial, patient (spent time with me on the phone), professional. Some never contacted me back, others gave me a hurried response. BTW, Dr. Ed Davidson (Martin's mentor, & mine also at UIUC) actually RETURNED MY PHONE CALL from U. of Michigan, as did the head of Monterey Bay Aquarium (she was former MIT prof of Geophysics). A minority of people are very professional, most are mediocre, some are terrible. It's the famous bell-curve distribution (Gaussian).

This whole public expose on my part, was triggered by the LACK of response when I went "horizontal" to xxx (who I thought were critical contacts). However, when I went to my PhD friend at NREL/PV..the response was IMMEDIATE & a rich interaction consummated (last Fri). He immediately offerred to fly to meet me (& others), on NREL's dime. Now, THAT's the way to "do business".

It just occurred to me, maybe I should stick with my universe (high end R&D). However, it still doesn't solve the problem of communicating/connecting to the other universes (Business, VC sources, etc) when a deal needs to get done. I recall a moment from my UIUC undergrad days (Digital Design), where the professor said

"It's just as much an exercise in Communication, as it is a Technical exercise"

What I'm saying ultimately is that there was a real Communication breakdown in my attempt to contact some people (in other universes), which led to my open-architecture campaign on TMC.

[TEG]

You hear all the stories about deals being done on a golf course or on the back off a napkin at a restaurant. I really don't know the first thing about venues for forming an entity like that.

Well I guess these days it seems that people try to get together at trade shows when a "critical mass" of experts and interested parties has assembled together.

How about this: speed pitching! (http://www.xconomy.com/seattle/2008/06/23/two-minute-pitch-competition-yields-two-startups-to-watch-in-internet-and-energy/) Another (http://www1.pressdemocrat.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061019/NEWS/610190375)

Maybe you should spend some time on the Alternative Energy Wild Ideas Forum (http://alternativeenergycom.ning.com/group/wildideas/forum)?

Or become a frequent contributor on a Physics Engineering Forum (http://www.physicsforums.com/forumdisplay.php?f=98)?

I just wonder if TMC is the wrong place for you to fish with your ideas...

[TEG]

Check out how much effort went into this idea (http://api.ning.com/files/vkr2eORwUQvS8ksrjpmv-QsGYjJC7Ko8L96I4EWgt4jbynl-wHNBqnXBu3iIkDwYDHXUm-l5nVUv*kxCEg4zvjIvfNKn2iVk/WindHelix3.pdf). See section 8 on R&D proposal. Do you have business plan?

[chimpanzee]

Even with what little I know, I think you are oversimplifying things. Turmoil wasn't just about transmission problems and delivery delays.

In an effort to try to "move on", I will hold back on what I think the other issues were.

I think you are also oversimplifying to say that the transmission problems were due to lack of R&D. As far as I was concerned, Tesla was one big R&D effort from the start. They were inventing and refining a lot of things as they went. The transmission just emerged as the most visible of the myriad hurdles they were struggling to get over.

See Judy Estrin's article (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/judy-estrin/innovation-crucial-to-our_b_123556.html), she emphasizes the value of long-term view. (she is right about the "poison" of Instant Gratification society we live in, McDonalds approach to business).


Wrong. In fact, the underlying infrastructure of research, development, and application that produced these marvels -- as well as world-changing innovations like the Internet -- has drastically deteriorated in the U.S. in recent years. The decline of what I call our "Innovation Ecosystem" poses a grave threat to both the economic prosperity of our country [ ability of companies like TM to deliver advanced technology products & prosper ] and the security of our children's future. The state of innovation is a critical issue that should be getting more attention in the days leading up to the presidential election.

The latter necessarily requires an R&D program


Also, as far as many people are concerned, Tesla has been a big success so far (even considering said delays and major staff churn). They still seem to be the best thing going in the EV business at the moment.

Only because GM (& other auto mfg sloths) are dinosaurs.

"GM is a dinosaur. They pay executives to DO NOTHING"
-- lawyer friend in Michigan, HS classmate of mine

I would be more impressed if TM was a lean mean rock-and-roll machine, with progressive management (there's a cancer at the top) & R&D program setup. Engineering snafus dealt with "smooth & fast", on-schedule delivery. A real smackdown to those dinosaurs in Detroit.


Right from the start many said "what are they thinking?" Their effort was from left field, and had a very questionable path to success (given for example all the previous examples of automotive start-ups that failed).
In my mind one of the biggest hurdles was the fact that the venture was conceived almost like a software/internet start-up which investors traditionally expect to see gains/returns quickly. Auto manufacturers are stuck in a world of supplier limitations, regulatory delays, and other things that conspire to slow them down way more than a software or small consumer device company would have to face. Having a large group of investors anxiously watching over your shoulder puts undue pressure on people to make quick/rash decisions sometimes.

from Dr. xxx NREL/PV researcher friend (who is a software specialist):

Software:
can work on it night & day, make it work

PV Research:
can work on it night & day, can't make it work

I think TM is realizing what Dr. xxx already knows. You can't do X, if you're Y. Maybe they need to make some adjustments (R&D program would be a good "insurance policy" against engineering delays).

"The ability (or inability) to made adjustments in a dynamic/changing system"
-- Complex Adaptive Systems

A Caltech prof (Nonlinear Dynamics & Control) dabbles in this, & his student ended up at Williams F1. Formula 1 Racing is a perfect Complex System, which could benefit from CAS techniques. TM should look into this as well. Murray Gell-Mann (famous Caltech Physics Nobelist left Caltech to startup the Sante Fe Research Inst (http://www.santafe.edu/) (with his best friend Dr. David Pines, a UIUC physicist..btw, Martin's talk last spring @UIUC was at the Physics Bldg, aka Loomis Laboratory of Physics), which specializes in this area of Complex Systems (http://www.santafe.edu/research/topics-innovation-evolutionary-systems.php)


Also, from what I can tell Tesla is still able to attract talent easily.

I think people are not thinking (rational response), & letting the euphoria of EV/Alternative Energy take over (emotional response). Anyone who wants to work there needs to have their head examined. (sometimes the Brain has a MIND of its own)

I mean, anyone who looks at:

1) Martin & company (incl Wally Rippel/Caltech alumni, Judy Estrin) being ejected
the repercussions are that they tell their friends, & their respective alma-maters (UIUC & Caltech & UCLA) are offended. As interview prep, interviewees research the potential company..TM is therefore excluded!

2) impatience in not letting Xtrac (or Magna) work thru the tranny problem
modus-operanda = "throwing money at problem". Knowledge Consumerism..instead of Knowledge Creation (R&D takes time to solve engineering problems). Instant gratification (see Judy Estrin's spot on comments (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/judy-estrin/innovation-crucial-to-our_b_123556.html), about lack of "Innovation Ecosystem", lack of long-term planning, etc).

3) unprofessional handling of Roadster delivery to Martin
this debacle had "personal spite" written all over it.
If 1) & 2) don't do it, then 3) will. This sounds like something out of high-school. Oh wait. "Life is like High-School..WITH MONEY"/David Letterman. TM did irreparable damage to their reputation with this boner.


Re: 2), TM has this mind-set at their highest management levels! THIS is my major complaint about TM: "it starts from the Top", means this systemic flaw will manifest in future "tranny issues", i.e. engineering challenges. Fraunhofer Inst was created after WWII to jumpstart German Industry, which was a pro-active search/solution of engineering problems..BEFORE they were encountered in Manufacturing.

[ my vision of a virtual R&D Inst, spanning Industry & Academia is based on this same principle of a "search & destroy" concept. It's like in the military, where scouts are sent out to gather "Intelligence" in preparation for an attack. Essentially, TM didn't send out "scouts" to gather R&D info to "cover themselves" in their attack on the transmission problem. Business is like War. You literally need a military approach. ]

Leave it to the Germans (legendary "German Engineering") to set an example. Also, the Japanese with their famous "Japanese style of management for Auto MFG'ing" (people all along the process, including workers, could make suggestions on how to improve MFG'ing). There was a History Channel episode of Voyages about Honda, where it was pointed out that the "lazy American worker" was a MYTH. In fact, it was LOUSY American management (which didn't let the American worker participate in the MFG'ing process pro-actively, like the Japanese system) that was the issue. I sent Martin this episode, along with the one for Ferrari, Porsche, VW, Audi, Mercedes.


As much as anyone, I long for the days when TM was giving us a very tantalizing blog view into their thoughts, plans and struggles, but shifting focus from bloggers to the mainstream press does make sense as they gain credibility and finally start to deliver on their promises.

See above comments about Japanese style of Management for Auto MFG'ing, where workers (& everyone else) along the chain of command are allowed to particpate in a self-correcting/self-organizing way of improving MFG'ing.

I think a New Model for a progressive company like TV, should continue to use the Blogging solution for good Company-Customer feedback. Here's a cool anecodote from RCSE (Radio Control Soaring Electric) mailing list (where there was a cancerous vendor on the loose):


I had a problem with some equipment and sent an e-mail to the retailer,
Amateur Electronic Supply.† They responded immediately.† When I called
to make final arrangements I complemented them on their fast response.†
I will always remember what they said and will continue to do business
with them.† The response was "All we have to offer you is service".
That's all I ask for.
---------------------
Best I have heard so far. I hope the Vendors listen and this will be and

end of it.

TM better not turn into the "same old same old" model for Auto MFG'ing, & keep the customer distant. These blogs have built in CMS/Content Management System, which functions like a feedback mechanism: customer to company.

[ continued ]

[chimpanzee]

I agree with many points and statements you have made, but I have a harder time visualizing how everything will gel into something meaningful. Yes, academia, pure R&D and sales driven product development are all very different worlds. From the start I was always saying that EVs really only need direct drive gearboxes. Further research on CVTs and multi-speed gearboxes seems like a waste of time to me. As many have said time and time again the real R&D needs to happen in advanced energy storage. Many had hoped Eestor would have delivered by now. LiIon is too expensive and doesn't last long enough. Tesla has a business model that may work even with LiIon but the real tide change isn't going to happen until energy storage devices get better and cheaper.

Yes, the bottleneck is Battery Technology. Need to make them lighter, more efficient to give EVs better power-to-weight ratio & range. Especially the latter.

[ Ironically, a contemporary of Martin & me (we all went through UIUC/Coordinated Science Laboratory/AARG, aka Artificial Intelligence Lab), Dr. Steve Cross is now VP of Georgia-Tech & President of GTRI. The latter is involved with battery technology research, at Center for Innovative Fuel Cell and Battery Technologies (http://www.gtri.gatech.edu/atlanta/fcbt). Not name-dropping, a potential key contact to get some R&D connections. Just like Dr. xx/NREL/solar for PV R&D. Whoala, personal contacts to setup a CFPT (Carbon Free Personal Transportation) using EV/PV startup. ]


I think Tesla has a huge uphill battle coming soon learning how to be a good customer support and post sales company. Dealing with problems and complaints of real customers is going to require the same sort of leaning curve they had to get through to figure out how to get into the auto business in the first place. Funders & early adopters are going to be more "supportive" customers, but at some point they are going to be dealing with a lot more people who have less willingness to just accept "teething pain" sorts of issues.

Yes, the sophisticate Roadster clientele is more educated & understanding. Joe Q Public is gonna be a tough. There's a famous saying "You can't fix STUPID!" (Believe me, I have personally experienced this in Amateur Astronomy & Offroad Racing) The sophistication level of public is like what a Caltech physics major (amateur-astronomer friend of mine) said publicly:

"They might think you are an UNDER-EDUCATED BUMPKIN!"


Martin and Marc ending up as EIRs at a VC is a healthy sign that they will be part of other interesting ventures in the not too distant future. Even if they don't show up as the visible face of a particular company they are there helping keep the big alternative energy push going. I look forward to hearing about the "next big thing".

Hey, I should be in that position of EIR!

Oh, I'm a nobody.

[ "a [ chimpanzee ] cry in the forest" is the phrase Dr. Jonas Salk used ]

They definitely need some PhDs, who understand the R&D process. See Judy Estrin's comments (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/judy-estrin/innovation-crucial-to-our_b_123556.html), that the "R&D universe" DEFINITELY needs to have some "smooth & fast" integration with manufacturing. Germany has the Fraunhofer Inst (Applied Research) which helps German Industry. Where is the American version? My vision of an "Interdisciplinary Cooperative/Collaborative R&D Inst" as a virtual entity spanning Academia & Industry is a no-brainer. I personally mentioned my idea to a German CS prof (who is w/Fraunhofer) at the recent SIGGRAPH 2008 conference, & he liked the idea of how Daimler-Benz, VW, BMW could be beneficiaries of American ingenuity. Judy Estrin would totally dig this, American-German partnership for an "Innovation Ecosystem".

[TEG]

See Judy Estrin's article (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/judy-estrin/innovation-crucial-to-our_b_123556.html), she emphasizes the value of long-term view. (she is right about the "poison" of Instant Gratification society we live in, McDonalds approach to business).

It saddens me on a daily basis to see how we have been heading to a disposable products society. Long term testing isn't done like it once was. Time to market wins out over tried and true.

The number of products I get these days that are DOA or that fail within a year is like 10x what it was 20 years ago.

So many manufacturers that built a long term quality reputation have sold their names to new entities that start over and have to try to figure out how to engineer quality all over again. I suppose NASA->SpaceX is an example of this trend. Maybe there is value in trying to do a periodic industry wide "restart" (and let people try again with a clean slate), but it is painful to watch all the old mistakes get repeated and relearned.

Here is one story (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capacitor_plague) that bit a lot of folks in the computer industry.
More on that story here (http://www.badcaps.net/forum/showthread.php?t=425). Mistake, lack of testing or planned obsolescence?

[chimpanzee]

It saddens me on a daily basis to see how we have been heading to a disposable products society. Long term testing isn't done like it once was. Time to market wins out over tried and true.

The number of products I get these days that are DOA or that fail within a year is like 10x what it was 20 years ago.

So many manufacturers that built a long term quality reputation have sold their names to new entities that start over and have to try to figure out how to engineer quality all over again. I suppose NASA->SpaceX is an example of this trend. Maybe there is value in trying to do a periodic industry wide "restart" (and let people try again with a clean slate), but it is painful to watch all the old mistakes get repeated and relearned.

Here is one story (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capacitor_plague) that bit a lot of folks in the computer industry.
More on that story here (http://www.badcaps.net/forum/showthread.php?t=425). Mistake, lack of testing or planned obsolescence?

You mention SpaceX as being part of this trend:

"Increasingly, it's a race between Education [ "Book Knowledge", R&D, etc ] & Disaster [ long-term future is dismal ]"
-- H.G. Welles

The amazing part of that quote, is it was made back in the 1930's!!

The running joke is that Microsoft lets the customer become the beta-tester in their buggy software releases. Lke you say, "time to market" wins over the QC approach:

"Long term testing isn't done like it once was. Time to market wins out over tried and true."

Back in Martin's generation & mine, Magnavox had a nice slogan:

"Quality goes in, as the Name goes On"

Whatever happened to that concept of "tried & true"?

Quality has been replaced by a "throw away product".

Look at Walmart, they are skewed over to low price-point. (see PBS McNeil Lehrer Reports series, on Walmarts predatory practices in pushing their agenda). As opposed to Performance/Price ratio. TM Roadster is skewed to the Performance parameter. After you've tasted "Quality" (as opposed to Quantity, which is low price-point), you'll never go back!

"Quantity..has a certain QUALITY ABOUT IT"
-- Dr. xxx, military weapons school

That's how USA & Russia won WWII (Germans had arguably the best military hardware: ME-262 jet-fighter, ME-109 w/fuel injection, Tiger Tank (Porsche design?), V-1/V-2 rockets, etc), their Industrial might was brought to bear where they could pump out QUANTITY of tanks/airplanes/trucks (Chrysler plant in Detroit was used to make the tinny mass-produced Sherman tank). The Russians had the amazing T-34 tank (had advanced concept of sloped armor), which was produced en-masse. E.g., the German Tiger tank (best open field tank in WWII w/lethal 88mm gun) could only be defeated by a SWARM (quantity, numerically superior force) of Sherman tanks. 2 Sherman tanks had to be sacrificed (used as cannon fodder), before a 3rd tank snuck up from behind to nail the Tiger in the unprotected rear.

If the above scenario is a fundamental concept in War & Business (Walmart effect), then we are part of this Quantity over Quality trend. Quality will always have a high-end niche-market. The Masses will get the Quantity solution.

"I have never tried, in even one single little instance, to help cultivate the cultivated classes. I was not equipped for it either by native gifts or training. And I never had any ambition in that direction, but always hunted for bigger game - the masses."
-- Mark Twain

I like Martin's TM game-plan: use the Roadster as a promotional-vehicle to change Public Perception about EV (& also establish a niche-market for high-end EV sportscar), in preparation for their long-term goal: revolutionize the world for EV for the masses (Whitestar).

=========

I mentioned the below before, it was from my UIUC days (& Martins) 25 yrs ago:

"USA is #1 in innovation [ top research at world-class universities ], Japan is #1 in bringing Technology to the Market"
-- Japanese Industrialist

[ Japan has a Collaborative/Cooperative infrastructure involving Govt & Industry. This was no accident, it was part of a Grand Plan. Just like Germany has the Fraunhofer Inst (Applied Research outfit, started after WWII) to jumpstart German Industry, where they would pro-actively search/solve engineering probs before they are encountered in Manufacturing/Industry. And, the USA has..no such coordinated plan involving Academia/Govt/Industry! (which begs for NCEA/Nati'l Center for Energy Applications: "Interdisiplinary Cooperative/Collaborative R&D Inst for Energy Applications", my vision). As Judy Estrin pointed out, the "Innovation Ecosystem" is in crisis (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/judy-estrin/innovation-crucial-to-our_b_123556.html), the long-term future has disaster written all over it. The TM Roadster engineering crisis involving the transmission, is a perfect case where a Fraunhofer-like NCEA could have come to the rescue. I'm not surprised that Germany & Japan take the lead in Industry, they put out fabulous cars ala Mercedes, BMW, Porsche, Acura, et al. There was an excellent History Int'l series called Voyages, where they profiled the major car companies: Porsche, Ferrari, BMW, Mercedes, VW, Audi, Nissan. They all had extensive Auto Racing development programs (R&D, ala "Real World Knowledge"). I sent Martin a DVD with these programs. ]

[ continued ]

[chimpanzee]

Interesting example from Offroad Racing: a top chassis designer (with background in Formula 1, pavement, electric cars..CVT) was contracted by GM to build a Trophy Truck..the elite class in Offroad Racing. The chassis were designed to be replaced after every race (tweaked/warped out chassis), because it went WAY BEYOND the concept of Power/Weight ratio. In trying to crazily minimize weight, it was not structurally sound! A top Offroad Racing team (PPI/Precision Preparation Inc, who was part of the famous Ivan "Ironman" Stewart package with Toyota) contracted UC San Diego NCSA

[ Nat'l Ctr for Supercomputing Appications, which was formed at UIUC. Founded by computational astrophysicist Dr. L. Smarr, who actually visited our AARG Lab to check out our new Vision system..the one Martin had wire-wrapped for his '81 summer internship. LS is now at UCSD/CALIT2 with another technology R&D Inst (UCSD & UC Irvine academic partners), who I think needs to be part of this new R&D Inst for AE ]

"They [ Japanese ] use the tools so fast"
-- Dr. R. Chien, UIUC/Elec Eng/Coordinated Science Laboratory/AARG

[ Martin's supervisor, when he did '81 summer internship at our lab. My MS thesis advisor for a while, his son (co-intern w/Martin that summer) is now Director of Research & VP of Corporate Technology @Intel. ]

Those "tools" are the result of that Japanese Cooperative/Collaborative infrastructure, involving Govt & Industry. If such a thing existed (ala Fraunhofer Inst), then the TM Roadster tranny issue could have been dealt with "smooth & fast". This "proof of concept" has been validated by the Germans & Japanese!! You have to wonder what the powers-to-be in Washington have been doing all these decades!? Judy Estrin mentioned that in her "Innovation: Crucial to Success" (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/judy-estrin/innovation-crucial-to-our_b_123556.html) article:


It seems like innovation in many fields -- from Web 2.0 to personalized medicine -- is accelerating at a rapid pace in the United States, right?

Wrong. In fact, the underlying infrastructure of research, development, and application that produced these marvels -- as well as world-changing innovations like the Internet -- has drastically deteriorated in the U.S. in recent years. The decline of what I call our "Innovation Ecosystem" poses a grave threat to both the economic prosperity of our country and the security of our children's future. The state of innovation is a critical issue that should be getting more attention in the days leading up to the presidential election [ i.e., Washington power-to-be better do what the Germans & Japanese have already done: setup some Infrastructure like an NCEA (Coordination between Academia & Industry, R&D to help Alternative Energy companies ].


BTW, where is Judy Estrin these days? She should be leading this charge from the Silicon Valley end of things. I seem to be "leading the charge" from the Academia side. We should probably get in touch, & get something going. My NREL/PV researcher friend wants to fly out to talk with me (& others) in a couple of weeks.

BTW, the contemporaries of Martin (25 yrs ago @UIUC) could be key contacts to get some Washington action going:

1) Dr. Smarr (now at UCSD/CALIT2)
went to Washington (with endorsement of UIUC profs, incl Dr. Ed Davidson, Martin's mentor @UIUC/EE), pitched the proposal for NCSA, & got it funded. The 1st Internet browser NCSA Mosaic was a famous spinoff from NCSA (M. Andreesen, whose boss was my boss when I was MRL/Materials Research Lab computer operator, during my undergrad days), it also was the roots of Internet Explorer (via Spyglass, a startup company outside UIUC..Scientific Visualization). Perfect example of Judy Estrin's "Innovation Ecosystem" at work, NCSA was part of this new creative Infrastructure. This happened (late 80's) after Martin & I left UIUC (early to mid 80's).

2) Dr. Steve Cross (now VP of Georgia-Tech & President of GTRI/Gatech Research Inst)
testified to Congressional sub-committee, Re: Internet security. His background is AI, Software (SEI/Software Engineering Inst @CMU), now GaTech. His ex-Gatech colleague is now President of Caltech

3) Martin himself
testified to Congressional sub-committee, Re: xx (EV & Alternative Energy?). Co-founded the breakthrough Silicon Valley startup TM, & is friends with GM/Bob Lutz. Washington is in a frenzy right now (GM/Ford/Chrysler crisis), talking about 25 billion loan package. This, plus historical crisis in Stock Market, means this is PERFECT TIMING, to get Washington off its rear & do something.

Just imagine if the above 3 were part of some plan to goto Washington to push the NCEA/Nat'l Ctr for Energy Applications (a Fraunhofer Inst like Applied Research entity). With Dr. Ed Davidson in tow (formerly Univ of Michigan/EE Dept Head, now retired), he last told me in 2001 that he found a flaw in NSF (too much comparmentalization, which rejects Interdisciplinary type proposals). ]

to do a structural analysis (full blown FEA/Finite Element Analysis with a Cray). Turns out the result was a chassis that was WAY TOO HEAVY! (by real-world offroad racing standards). Indycar (& F1) cars are pretty fragile, they are walking a thin line themselves. Auto Racing is like the current consumer market: they are using flimsy product to get quick results (winning races). The driver knows the limits of the car, & doesn't drive beyond that performance curve:

"Know yourself [ driving ability ], know your opponent [ car, competition, race-track ], & you will never be defeated..in a 100 battles"
-- Sun Tzu, "Art of War"

Same thing in Business (like "War"). TM didn't know their "opponent" ("race track of Technology", where they were off-the-scale in terms of "pushing the limits": "In order to Push the Limits, sometimes you have to EXCEED THE LIMITS"), & the Roadster tranny bug bit them hard. If EM had just let Martin do his thing (let Xtrac or Magna work thru the problem, give them TIME), last years crisis never would have happened! As it turned out, Xtrac had its own development program & their offroad development partner (http://agmmotorsports.blogspot.com/) (owner's name is Martin, btw) worked thru the problem (after 2007 was a breakage year), & successfully developed a tranny that got them 1st, 3rd, 1st place finishes..& looking to take home the coveted season points championship, going into Nov's Baja 1000. Wow!!

25 years later (Martin was my officemate in grad-school, we were both "kids"), we both converge in Automotive: Offroad Racing & EV. Google founders (S. Brin & L. Page) attended the DARPA Grand Challenge (http://www.darpa.mil/grandchallenge05/gcorg/index.html)

[ Autonomous Vehicle Navigation for Offroad, "robot race in the desert" @Primm/NV, where Xtrac's development partner got 1st place 2 weekends ago (footage from last year's Primm race here (http://agmmotorsports.blogspot.com/2008/09/class-1-top-5-mm27-lap-4-score-07-primm.html)) ]

& are involved with TM as investors. Along with Dr. Brian S. (MIT PhD in Artificial Intelligence, a research colleague of mine during my PhD days..same field as Martin: AI/Robotics/Computer Vision), who was Cineform lead engineer that designed the video-codec for "Dust to Glory" (breakthrough Offroad Racing film of Baja 1000, that was prominently displayed at NAB/Nat'l Assn for Broadcasters '05 conference: Microsoft booth, AMD booth, Adobe booth (http://www.jumplive.com/main.html#NAB)). Pretty amazing, that all these Artificial Intelligence researchers from 25 odd yrs ago (MIT & UIUC) converge in Automotive! This is perfect demonstration Judy Estrin's "Innovation Ecosystem" (the interconnectedness of Innovation, via Academia). Just imagine, if it were "nurtured" (her words), instead of it "happening by accident"..which is this case.

Turns out my Offroad Racing project found numerous contacts/donors (1 has 300 million who has his own aerospace company (http://jonesmotorsports.blogspot.com/) (interview here (http://geiserbros.blip.tv/)), 1 makes 7 million profit PER DAY (http://terribleherbstmotorsports.blogspot.com/), 1 got a 30 million bonus a few yrs ago (http://baldwinmotorsports.blogspot.com/), 1 is a wealthy Mexican transportation company (http://vildosolaracing.blogspot.com/)), 1 of them who could be crucial ("validation prototype" for NCEA, demonstration of successful gearbox that solves the severed shockload problem in offroad & can be "transferred over" to pavement..say TM Roadster) for a DoE (or NSF) proposal for NCEA.

"It came out of the Blue [ lightning strike ]"
"Blue skies baby, BLUE SKIES"

Somewhere I think there is optimism ("blue skies") for the above happening.

[TEG]

Recent quote on Martin's blog (http://teslafounders.wordpress.com/2008/09/15/southern-california-ev-juice-etc/#comment-3799):

Martin sez: I think it’s a good bet that I will be up to something new come November. Odds are also that I will need to be secretive about it for a while. The nature of new ventures…

[chimpanzee]

Recent quote on Martin's blog (http://teslafounders.wordpress.com/2008/09/15/southern-california-ev-juice-etc/#comment-3799):

Martin sez: I think it’s a good bet that I will be up to something new come November. Odds are also that I will need to be secretive about it for a while. The nature of new ventures…


Check out how much effort went into this idea. See section 8 on R&D proposal. Do you have business plan?

My thing's not business, but a Fraunhofer-like "Interdisciplinary Collaborative/Coperative R&D Inst for Energy Applications" (NCEA) that is a "R&D supercharger" to help the "Alternative Energy entrepeneurial engine" (Martin's playground/universe). It will get founded based on Public Funding (DoE, DARPA, NSF). Will need to meet with leaders in Industry to establish Collaborative/Cooperative connections (Communication/Command/Control, as per military model), so they may jump in with their own funding (Industry & VCs).

1) Alternative Energy "engine" (startups everywhere)
VCs (Martin & Mark are EIRs at a VC), AE related startups (e.g., Tesla Motors). Tons of entrepeneurial startups are "jumping into the game". Based on the lessons of TM (Roadster tranny issue), a R&D program (internal & external..the latter is the below R&D Inst) is required to "cover themselves".

"In order to Push the Limits, sometimes you have to EXCEDD THE LIMITS"

The R&D programs are an "insurance policty" against any potential engineering snafus (inevitable), so they can be dealt with "smooth & fast". Manufacturing can be maintained with minimal delays. "Speed is LIFE" as the saying goes in Auto Racing.

2) NCEA/Nat'l Center for Energy Applications ("R&D supercharger")
virtual R&D Inst, an umbrella that encompasses Academia (major universities with Research Programs in AE, e.g. Georgia-Tech's GTRI) & Industry (major industrial players like Intel, Tesla Motors, Fraunhofer Inst, etc)

A simple parallel to the motivations/founding of NCSA/Nat'l Ctr for Supercomputing Applications, its origins are a UIUC researcher (computational astrophysicist) in the mid 80's (who btw, visited the AARG lab to check out our Air Force sponsored hi-speed image-buffer, which was wire-wrapped by Martin. I myself designed/wire-wrapped an interface board for that system) He is now at UCSD/CALIT2 (joint UCSD & UC Irvine Applied Research program which has Industrial partners like Toyota, Ford, Nissan), whose charter is "leveraging Communications Technology to help the EMERGING ECONOMY of California". Heh.

3) US Govt
if these characters can get their act together (a major challenge), & design a custom Infrastructure like Japan did for their Automotive Industry (& Germany did after WII for German Industry, via Fraunhofer). As per Judy Estrin's article Innovation" Critical to Our Future spot-on comments (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/judy-estrin/innovation-crucial-to-our_b_123556.html) (Re: "Innovation Ecosystem", an infrastructure to nurture R&D, Innovation, etc). Martin had the foresight to hire her to TM's Advisory Board, & a Jekyl/Hyde surfaced to eject Martin, W. Rippel, J. Estrin (& others). Whoah! And, TM is talking about setting up a "state of the art R&D program on their proposed campus"? Sorry, bridge burned.


See above UIUC contacts (UCSD/CALIT2, GaTech/GTRI, Martin), who are ex UIUC alumni with strong track records in Innovation & Academics. All 3 have passed thru Washington (congressional sub-committee testimonies, & 1 guy sucessfully got NCSA funded), so they have brand-name recognition in Washington political circles.

The poltical/economic climate in Washington (near desperation, they are looking for a PR save, & more importantly a long term program to save this country's future, as per Judy Estrin's observation), in cojunction with the entrepeneurial hype-ractivity in AE/Alternative Energy (e.g., EV, hydrogen-power cars, PV/solar power, etc) because of the Global Warming hype, means that the "Timing is Right".

"Timing is Everything"
-- business saying
[ Not only do you have to suggest a Technology solution, but it has to be at the TIME at which they will WANT IT. H. Nakajima told me that in my Champcar Auto Racing project (http://www.jumplive.com/ccws.html) ]

Already there is talk of 25 billion earmarked as loans to save the American auto-industry (incl GM, whose EV/Volt program was triggered by TM's Roadster breakthrough), 80 million in subsidies by DoE (for TM?), etc. Every politician is talking about AE, electric cars (J. McCain posed with a Roadster, etc). Obviously, the above Economic opportunities manifest into Economic growth in the Tech sector (based on this country's strength in Innovation, uh..kinda), i.e. ultimately JOBS. The latter is the key word for politicians, it will get them elected & STAY ELECTED.

"Talk the Talk, Walk the Walk"

My NREL/PV researcher friend is on travel next week, but wants to do something the following week (fly to talk to me in Socal, & others..say, some Caltech research profs. 1 is a Mech Eng prof on sabbatical to Northrop-Grumman to investigate the AE option (I think) ). Because of his world-class research/results, he has deep connections in the entrepeneurial side of PV (knows owners, CTOs, & was being lured away), who long term future is in this area (business world, Martin's universe). His area (PV) is attracting major VC interest (SF-based), to the tune of 1 billion.

He is a key contact in this CFPT (Carbon Free Personal Transportation) via EV/PV idea I've got, which plays into the above 1/2/3 grand-plan.

All my talk on TMC is beginning to gel into some "walk the walk" action. If Martin/Marc are EIR's on a VC firm, then they realize the above 1/2/3 is the "grand plan" that must be implemented (as per Judy Estrin's observation to establish an "Innovation Ecosystem" foundation for present/future of America) to help their vision for AE/EV. I say some "heads" need to get together for further talks (fine-tune the concept involving 1/2/3), & start writing proposals. Sept/Oct is crunch time for Fiscal 2009 proposals. I'm right in the middle of my own, involving HEP/High Energy Physics (you might have noticed the latest news on the CERN/LHC coming on line (http://news.google.com/news?client=safari&rls=en-us&q=cern+lhc&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&um=1&sa=N&tab=wn&oi=property_suggestions&resnum=0&ct=property-revision&cd=1), there is great buzz/excitement in the Physics community about this, just like EV is generating great buzz/excitement within AE). Which has an interesting cross-over connection (Interdisciplinary Science) to AE.

[chimpanzee]

I was in the Menlo Park store yesterday to ask a few questions, in part to confirm my estimate of when I could expect delivery (#187). We all agreed on late December.

Doreen told me that "all" (my interpretation) the cars built this year will be airshipped. They want to get a lot of cars on the road quickly.

I was at SIGGRAPH 2008 last month, & wanted to meet with you to discuss the Roadster. I did attend Ed Catmull's talk (http://www.flickr.com/photos/chimpanzee/sets/72157606781430439/), & had a brief chat with him during the following autograph session (http://www.flickr.com/photos/chimpanzee/sets/72157606777740112/). He told me he wants the Whitestar.

So, it occurred to me. Why wouldn't the PIXAR founder (& President of Disney Animation) NOT go with a Roadster? It would be symbolic of the leader of a Technology based company like PIXAR. Then, you want a Roadster. I know Rob Cook/PIXAR drives a BMW (he told me so back at SIGGRAPH 2001), I confirmed that he still does. So, is car selection just personal preference?

I personally have no need for a sportscar, I like to haul stuff & goto the desert for amateur-astronomy (http://www.comet-track.com). I am personally interested in getting a EV with offroad capability, exploring the outback (http://www.flickr.com/photos/chimpanzee/sets/72157606273652069) is my thing.

My involvement with Offroad Racing (where Xtrac has built a development program with certain teams), found an interesting team who is an Xtrac development partner (http://agmmotorsports.blogspot.com/). After suffering breakage in 2007, they/Xtrac co-developed a gearbox that got them 1st, 3rd, 1st place finishes & are looking forward to upcoming Baja 1000 (in Nov) to take home the Class 1 points championship. I want to submit a NSF (or DoE) proposal to fund a R&D Institute (targeting AE/Alternative Energy companies like TM), & use the above "real world R&D result" as an "engineering prototype". It should be straightforward to transfer this offroad result to Pavement (i.e., Tesla Roadster 2-speed gearbox). License this Technology to a company to build after-market 2-speed trannies to Roadster clients like yourself.

Q: Would you go for such a product?
If Powertrain 1.5 can get the desired performance (0-60 in 3.9s), then what's the point of a 2-speed? Simpler is better, just like automatics are preferable over manual transmission.

I'm trying to get a feel from a Roadster client like yourself, the market for Roadsters & aftermarket products like a 2-speed. What other accessories or products for the Roadster would you like to see?

My background is in Electrical Eng (Signal Processing) w/PhD, so I'm capable of doing development in the area of PEM. I'm thinking of getting a Roadster as a test-vehicle & doing what JB Straubel is doing: doing tests under city driving conditions.

1) Write a proposal to do some development work on the Roadster
in conjunction with XXX, funded by YYY. somebody (TM or whoever) loans/leases me a Roadster, or just flat out buy one.

Or, just privately tinker with a Roadster (no cooperative work with XXX). I'm 2 blocks from Caltech (& down the 210 freeway from ACP), so maybe XXX could be Caltech Mechanical Eng & Elec Eng. YYY could be DoE or NSF or DARPA.

"Research is about not knowing what the h*ll you're doing [ "monkeying around", see my avatar ]"

TEG just pointed out that TM's approach was a cut-and-try approach: see if software startup principles could be applied to EV auto MFG'ing. Similarly, I would have an open-ended approach (like Thomas Edison): just start messing around in the lab. I would look at the problem top-down, & draw up a plan. At the same time, I would have a bottom-up "play with the Technology" approach like I did with my last Project (http://www.jumplive.com) (which created all sorts of interesting unpredictable spinoffs).

"Research is predictably UNPREDICTABLE"

It's like PIXAR vs Benoit Mandelbrot, I recall your ACM article 20 odd yrs ago. Yeah, your table (random number seeds?) used for xxx (didn't fit the technical definition of Fractal yyy, sorry it's been so long) got BM all mad, but you're thing "worked". Perfect case of "Real World knowledge" beating out "Book Knowledge".

"What works..WORKS"
-- Lynn Conway/XEROX PARC (now U. of Michigan) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lynn_Conway), co-researcher with Carver Meade/Caltech
[ Lynn was the real-world computer architect, Carver was the Academic: this team ("Real World knowledge" + "Book knowledge") revolutionized VLSI design ]

Lynn had a similar fight with a "theoretician" (PARC researcher) like you did with Mandelbrot: yeah, technically they were right, but in the end.."what works..WORKS". End of Discussion.

from Lynn Conway's Perspective, Pt 4 (http://ai.eecs.umich.edu/people/conway/Retrospective4.html):

- - then it got serious - - we began experiencing great pressure within PARC from leaders in CSL, especially Butler Lampson, who was constantly running down the VLSI work in efforts to hurt the project and shift funding from it to CSL - - Lampson was the dominant technical persona of CSL - - - Bob Taylor's "top gunfighter" - - - he loved to verbally confront and attack people - - a walking encyclopedia of all past theory - - he'd often shoot folks ideas down if they weren't totally perfect on the smallest theoretical details - -

- - - however, Butler often missed the big picture of what was being worked on - - a "detail guy", he didn't seem to think much about "context" - - - heck, he never even asked us what we thought we were doing - - without checking it out, how could he possibly have visualized the VLSI phenomenon that was starting to loom large outside of PARC - - all he saw was the tiny little piece of the clan within PARC - - and whatever that was, he didn't like it - - - so this became a very, very big problem for us within PARC - - -

Hit that link above, it's a required reading for anyone trying to start a "Revolution" (like EV). It's not only a Technology challenge, but one in human persuasion, politics, etc.

"Der Kampf gegen die eigenen Oberen macht manchmal mehr Arbeit als gegen die Franzosen"
"It is sometimes tougher to fight my superiors [ management, colleagues ] than the French [ Market competition ]"
-- Heinz Guderian, German military innovator (Blitzkrieg) (http://www.achtungpanzer.com/gen2.htm), Panzer commander

[ When he got orders to stop and wait for the following infantry and tried to persuade his superiors that this would mean to throw away victory. ]

Martin got a taste of the above, so has everyone else (to varying degrees).

Lynn is also an amateur-astronomer (like Marc Tarpening & myself), offroad racer, very talented & capable. Dr. Ed Davidson (Martin's mentor @UIUC, mine too) knows her, since he was U. of Michigan/Elec Eng Dept Head.

[lorencc]

I skipped SIGGRAPH this year as I was too busy with work. Ed is not a sports car person. John Lasseter is and we may see him in a Roadster someday. Rob drives a M3. Rumor has it one of our directors ordered a Roadster, but I haven't confirmed it.

I couldn't not get a Roadster. I also drive a BMW (330ci) and was about to get a new one and Tesla came along. I ran the numbers and the difference (price + 5 years operating cost) was something I would gladly give to someone who could help get us out of the oil mess.

The delay doesn't bother me as the car shipping now is so much better than the one I signed up for (and they froze the price for us early depositors).

I have no plans to take it to a track, except perhaps for some advanced driving lessons. I live on a twisty road out in the country and I'll have plenty of opportunities to amuse myself.

Hacking a Roadster could be a fun project but I have no shortage of those.

Also, you got the gist of the Mandelbrot fuss. Surprised anyone remembers it...

Fortunately, here at Pixar, there are *no* jerks. No kidding. We turn them into productive people or we get rid of them. Company policy.

[TEG]

I used to be a regular at Siggraph back in the 80's when I was writing computer games. The yearly evolution of the Pixar demo reel was the highlight of the show. I bought and saved all the old tapes, but now I just have them all on Disney bluray.

When the Mandelbrot equation first got published in Scientific American some friends and I wrote our first distributed C app (on a network of Sun 1s) to visualize. It was so exciting. We worked out some ways to display different levels as different colormap entries, then rotated the palette for wild effects. Those were the days...

---

Regarding Roadster R&D... Tesla plans to grow and has lots of talent already. Do they really need an outside firm to do transmission research?! (I think not). If there is any outside angle, perhaps it would be to organize a race series. I know there is demand for that sort of thing from some of the customers.

Personally, the main type of "improvements" for the Roadster I would like to see in coming years would be:

#1: Cost reductions.
#2: Longer range.
#3: Longer pack calender lifespan.
#4: Airbag improvements (including passenger seat disable for kids).
#5: Brake blended (more adjustable) regen.

I suppose the German customers need a water cooled eMotor for the Autobahn as well. Might be useful in racing too.

[chimpanzee]

I skipped SIGGRAPH this year as I was too busy with work. Ed is not a sports car person. John Lasseter is and we may see him in a Roadster someday. Rob drives a M3. Rumor has it one of our directors ordered a Roadster, but I haven't confirmed it.

I couldn't not get a Roadster. I also drive a BMW (330ci) and was about to get a new one and Tesla came along. I ran the numbers and the difference (price + 5 years operating cost) was something I would gladly give to someone who could help get us out of the oil mess.

The delay doesn't bother me as the car shipping now is so much better than the one I signed up for (and they froze the price for us early depositors).

I have no plans to take it to a track, except perhaps for some advanced driving lessons. I live on a twisty road out in the country and I'll have plenty of opportunities to amuse myself.

Hacking a Roadster could be a fun project but I have no shortage of those.

Also, you got the gist of the Mandelbrot fuss. Surprised anyone remembers it...

Fortunately, here at Pixar, there are *no* jerks. No kidding. We turn them into productive people or we get rid of them. Company policy.

Hi, thanks for the update.

Personally, I don't have a car right now..I declared my gas-guzzling 4x4 van non-operational (until June/2009). No more gas fills at $4/gallon..NO WAY. I'm car-free on a bicycle + Public Transportation. My next car will be all-electric, no intermediary hybrid. I'm an extremist (Martin doesn't like hybrids either)

If things go right, I should have a Roadster to play with by next Sept (I would be #1201 !!). I'm not a sportscar person, but this whole TMC group (filled with Roadster fans) has got me "hooked" (kinda). I remember Martin taking me to his apartment (UIUC, summer '81)..so that means I got a ride in his '67 Mustang (have no recollection of that, however). His other office-mate had turqoise '69 Mustang Mach 1.

I see myself being a JB Straubel type: tinkering with it, driving it with cables hanging out of the dashboard (messing with PEM), swapping out gearboxes (transmissions have my attention). That Xtrac development partner (offroad) (http://agmmotorsports.blogspot.com/) uses a BMW M5 engine in his race car.



Re: Mandelbrot fuss, I mentioned to Al Barr/Caltech (http://www.caltechscience.com/08siggraph/index.html#ack) (20 odd yrs ago in his office), & he quickly sized it up for me. I clearly remember that ACM article. I do remember BM stomping out of SIGGRAPH 1985 (San Francisco), "Mathematics of Computer Graphics" seminar, all mad!! Coincidentally, a fellow UIUC PhD candidate at the time referred to BM as an "egotist" (ironically, he (Computer Vision researcher, UT Austin (http://www.ece.uiuc.edu/news/headlines/hl-alumni-awards-2008.html)) just got a UIUC Alumni award with Martin a few weeks ago)

We had a similar "fuss" in my field of Computer Vision (the time Martin & me were in the AI/Robotics/Visionfield, early to mid 80's): big-name MIT Vision group (Grimson/Hildreth) VS Haralick (image processing icon Virginia Tech). Same thing: big fight, it spilled over to a journal publication (IEEE PAMI/Pattern Analysis & Machine Intelligence), where the 2 sides "dueled". Reminds me of TM, battle of the "heads".

I find the "parallel threads" fascinating in above: Graphics, Vision, VLSI, EV/Tesla Motors. All 4 fields had huge battles with "big personalities" involved (a term used for the HST/Hubble mirror disaster). Some involved the classic "Experiment" VS "Theory" battle. Someone business-savvy would see there is a Need for a Solution, just figure out a business-model. It's worth BIG BUCKS to solve company crises that can be costly. I think Ed Catmull needs to "patent" the winning system he's created at PIXAR.


I DO remember Rob Cook & his buried reference (in a SIGGRAPH paper circa '85) to "Distributed Ray Tracing", which I thought was a deep fundamental concept in CG. Random sampling, in image space (to combat spatial anti-aliasing) & time (to combat motion anti-aliasing). This "random sampling concept" maybe tied to your table-based random number generator. I might be involved with some research projects in "Geometric Computation" (interesting ATI GPU research here using object-space Tesselation (http://08siggraph.blogspot.com/2008/08/atinatalya-tatarchuk-814-thu.html), where I resurrect this concept)

[chimpanzee]

I used to be a regular at Siggraph back in the 80's when I was writing computer games. The yearly evolution of the Pixar demo reel was the highlight of the show. I bought and saved all the old tapes, but now I just have them all on Disney bluray.

When the Mandelbrot equation first got published in Scientific American some friends and I wrote our first distributed C app (on a network of Sun 1s) to visualize. It was so exciting. We worked out some ways to display different levels as different colormap entries, then rotated the palette for wild effects. Those were the days...

---

Regarding Roadster R&D... Tesla plans to grow and has lots of talent already. Do they really need an outside firm to do transmission research?! (I think not). If there is any outside angle, perhaps it would be to organize a race series. I know there is demand for that sort of thing from some of the customers.

Personally, the main type of "improvements" for the Roadster I would like to see in coming years would be:

#1: Cost reductions.
#2: Longer range.
#3: Longer pack calender lifespan.
#4: Airbag improvements (including passenger seat disable for kids).
#5: Brake blended (more adjustable) regen.

I suppose the German customers need a water cooled eMotor for the Autobahn as well. Might be useful in racing too.

I like those bullet-points, thanks.

[ In the end, its customer feedback (being a good listener on TM's part) & customer service which will win the day. ]

That battery-pack thing is tops on my list: improving range/weight ratio. There is a revolution in R/C electric flying: NiCads, NiMh, LiIon are being blow away by the light weight & powerful LiPo battery packs (as of 3 yrs ago, I've been away for awhile). EV needs the equivalent of a LiPo.

TM management:
I've been saying this many times. "It starts from the TOP". TM has a "system gestalt" (Artificial Intelligence term) that is flawed because of...well. PIXAR is the opposite, the guy at the top (Ed Catmull) not only is a technical leader, but a organizational genius. The latter may be his greatest contribution to PIXAR. Recall the WWII anecdote, Eisenhower was chosen to head European Theater of Operations, not because of his military prowess..but because of his ORGANIZATIONAL SKILLS (he was the perfect guy, to keep the ego-maniacs Patton & Montgomery in check)

It's like in Baseball:

"You can always find good hitters (offense), but it's HARD TO FIND GOOD PITCHING! (defense)"

Lots of top engineering talent everywhere, but the key is to use them EFFECTIVELY. PIXAR has done that..they FIGURED IT OUT during their evolutionary phase & are running in top-form. TM hasn't done that (company-wide progressive design, like PIXAR/Catmull). They can attract "hitters" (OFFENSE), but can they put in management scheme, find the right leaders, implement strong R&D program (internal & external) to "protect themselves" (good DEFENSE). It's a sports cliche, but "DEFENSE wins Championships"

[ witness the catastrophic Stealth Bloodbath, where Martin, W. Rippel..famous Caltech engineer, Judy Estrin were all ejected. Martin & his team were unfairly blamed for "choosing the wrong Transmission vendor", which was total BS. TM management was impatient & didn't allow Xtrac or Magna the development TIME to work out (expected) engineering issues. Xtrac's development program in offroad (http://agmmotorsports.blogspot.com/) brilliantly illustrates this concept. If TM had the foresight to have an internal (& possibly make a deal with an external) R&D company, the tranny snafu could have been overcome in short order ]

..& they still haven't done that. They are relying on hype/buzz to lure "top talent", & it will catch up with them. Another engineering snafu, possibly another stealth bloodbath.

"There are TWO tragedies in Life..One, you get what you want. Two, you don't get what you want"
-- Dr. Jonas Salk, medical researcher (founder of Salk Institute)
[ another Ed Catmull-like technical leader, who is a "Big Aristotle"..philosopher extraordinaire ]

TM could be on the path of "getting what they want", & ultimately failing in the long-run. Maybe LorenC can arrange a meeting, where PIXAR/EdC can come in & work his magic.

"The JOURNEY *IS* the Reward"
-- John Wooden, UCLA basketball coach ("Wizard of Westwood")

"Lance Armstrong won the Tour de France, because of his PROCESS [ strategy, modus-operanda ]"
-- xx

"Lance Armstrong is a CALCULATED KILLER [ rides slow enough in mountain stages to take the win, while conserving energy ]"
-- Phil Ligget, cycling commentator (Tour de France)

"If you put yourself in a position to win [ good tactics/strategy ], YOU HAVE A SHOT AT WINNING"
-- Jim Valvano, NC State basketball coach, '83 NCAA champs (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_rrwtn4A08)

All of the above champions won-the-War with a brilliant, effective STRATEGY. TM is winning some battles, but possibly losing the war. TM needs to sit down, study historical examples (especially in Auto Industry, borrow some from other fields like PIXAR, NCAA basketball, cycling, etc.), & DO THE PLAN.

"In the end, THEY HAVE TO FIGURE IT OUT THEMSELVES"
-- USA right of passage
[ the founding fore-fathers of this country did it, PIXAR too ]

All my hee-hawing, links to above historical case studies, PIXAR's great example won't do it..TM HAS TO DO IT.

[chimpanzee]

I was in the Menlo Park store yesterday to ask a few questions, in part to confirm my estimate of when I could expect delivery (#187). We all agreed on late December.

Doreen told me that "all" (my interpretation) the cars built this year will be airshipped. They want to get a lot of cars on the road quickly.

I made a recent query, & if I put a deposit down now ($60K) I would be #1201 with expected delivery Sept 2009. Remainder of balance when the car goes to paint (say May 2009). I might be in such a position to buy one, for a research program. The latter would also invalidate the 3 yr 30K mile warranty.

Realistically, can anyone advise me on how true the above dates sound? They've delivered ~30, & #1201 will be delivered by Sept 2009?? I have to be truthful to myself & funding agency, I can't make a promise & not fulfill it.

I need some feedback on Roadster maintenance. How much can an individual do? I mean, no more oil changes & other nonsense associated with ICE. If the car is a LOT of electronics ("drive by wire"), then it HAS to go back to the dealership for adjustment.

Since the dawn of cars, enthusiasts/hobbyists have been tinkering with cars (therefore jeopardizing their spousal relationships). Heck, if a "PC supercomputer" is accessible to hobbyists (look at Tomshardware.com forums, filled with hardware junkies & hackers), then I supose the same would be true for the Roadster. Somehow, they'll figure things out (software or hardware). Look at how just about any electronic gadget can be hacked (e.g., "jailbreaking" an iPhone).

I suppose somebody out there could "jailbreak" a Roadster, & put in totally custom software apps (PEM, for example). Put in custom battery packs, custom AC Induction motor, custom gearboxes. Consider what offroad hobbyists can do:

http://jumplive.com/TA/lasvegas300/imageserver4.textamerica.com/user.images.x/71/IMG_537571/Big/_1013/T520061013100448399.jpg

This thing is totally custom: Cromoly 4130 tubular frame/chassis, custom suspension (A-arm front, 4-link trailing arm rear), custom motor (punched out big block Ford), custom gas-tank (60 gallon), custom wiring. The only thing stock is that Ford truck "shell" (bought from a junk yard, from a wrecked car). BTW, the above is not street-legal. There are some pre-runner conversions that ARE. They buy a wrecked 60's truck, keep the ladder frame, & build a Cromoly chassis around it. It puts some limitations on how "crazy" they can get with suspension travel, but it's 70% of the above.

The same thing could be done with a Roadster, just replace just about everything except the chassis (which still makes it street legal). New electric motor, new tranny, new PEM, new battery pack. Then, what's the point of shelling out $109K for a Roadster? I guess to have something street legal.

Or, can I buy a wrecked Porsche (or Ferrari) & convert it to Electric? Do I need to jump through hoops to get it licensed? Didn't JB Straubel convert a Porsche just for fun? (before his gig at TM)

[TEG]

I suppose somebody out there could "jailbreak" a Roadster, & put in totally custom software apps (PEM, for example). Put in custom battery packs, custom AC Induction motor, custom gearboxes.

Gearheads and hackers will mod just about anything.
With that said, when I look at the Roadster, there is very little I would want to change (other than the stereo perhaps). Some other vehicles are ripe for improvement, but the Roadster is already highly optimized. A lighter battery pack with the same current output, but less range could be good for racing. Someone might try to retrofit water cooling on the eMotor for substained high speed.
Actually if I had one I would be tempted to put in yellow turn signals instead of red on the rear. Perhaps custom wheels too.
Turning it into AWD would be an interesting/complex project.
(I saw a show about an AWD Mini conversion done by Getrag (http://www.motoringfile.com/2005/06/29/getrags_all_wheel_drive_mini_in-depth/))
[/URL]

can I buy a wrecked Porsche (or Ferrari) & convert it to Electric?[URL="http://www.worldclassexotics.com/Electriccarconv.htm"]Check out these guys (http://www.motoringfile.com/2005/12/01/driving-the-awd-getrag-mini/)


Do I need to jump through hoops to get it licensed?Small hoops. Lots of home brew EV conversions roam the streets legally.


Didn't JB Straubel convert a PorscheElectric Porsche 944 (http://www.jstraubel.com/944EV/EVproject.htm)

[vfx]

Production EVs can and will be modified.

You just have to think about all the ways (reasons) to modify a car.

Just a few examples...You might want to drag it, jump it, make it hop, off road it, drift it, add huge music, concourse it, road race it, distance race it, live in it, time trial, record (http://www.saltflats.com/Electric%20Rules.html) it, or demo it.

These are extremes. there are millions of in-betweens.

Most all of these forms will need new classifications and new categories. It's an exciting new world and I'm glad to be alive to see it.

[chimpanzee]

What road to greener transportation? | Green Tech - CNET News (http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-10049826-54.html)



http://i.i.com.com/cnwk.1d/i/bto/20080924/DSC_0245_540x384.JPG

I like Caltech's involvement in Alternative Energy.

Dr. Steven Koonin (PhD Nuclear Physics, MIT) is ex-provost @Caltech, who I believe has been "planted" in Oil Industry to act as a "catalyst" for a paradigm shift. In this case, chief-scientist @BP. Remember the 60's? "Down with the Establishment" which was a direct frontal approach to change ("We just knocked the Establishment on its Status Quo", from Hawaii Five-O episode where a bunch of hippies rob a bank), the hippies from that generation (mine & Martin's) have been replaced by insiders who are inducing change from "within the system".

Dr. David Goodstein (Feynman's protege) is Caltech's ex-vice provost, who wrote the alarmist book "Out of Gas". He was involved with Physics Education & he used to come to our JPL/Computer Graphics Lab when he was working with Jim Blinn (famed Computer Graphics researcher, the field Loren Carpenter/PIXAR..Roadster client..is in).

Both of the above guys are Physicists (Caltech has traditionally been run by physicists), but there was an interesting move when they hired Dr. David Baltimore (Nobelist in Medicine) for President several yrs ago. There's a big movement in Biology sector (especially Bio-Tech, which is relevant to Alternative Energy), so that's why he was brought in to stimulate R&D. (e.g., the Broad Inst was created/built, next to Beckman Inst). The current Caltech President is a former GaTech colleague of Dr. Steve Cross (early 80's contemporary of myself & Martin at UIUC/Coordinated Science Laboratory/AARG). Caltech has an impressive track-record in Automotive (Racing & EV), with Jim Hall (inventor of Ground-Effects, used in F1 & Indycar, currently on Caltech Mechanical Eng Advisory Board) & A. Cocconi/W. Rippel (Aerovironment engineers, who were involved in pionerring GM EV1 development).

What needs to happen, is to get Leadership (Academia, Industry, Govt) organized, as per Judy Estrin's comments (& mine) in regards to R&D (what Judy refers to as "Innovation Ecosystem")

Judy Estrin: Innovation: Crucial to Our Future (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/judy-estrin/innovation-crucial-to-our_b_123556.html)
Scobleizer — Tech geek blogger Blog Archive The political topic that must not be discussed in USA (http://scobleizer.com/2008/09/03/the-political-topic-that-must-not-be-discussed-in-usa/)


It seems like innovation in many fields -- from Web 2.0 to personalized medicine -- is accelerating at a rapid pace in the United States, right?

Wrong. In fact, the underlying infrastructure of research, development, and application that produced these marvels -- as well as world-changing innovations like the Internet -- has drastically deteriorated in the U.S. in recent years. The decline of what I call our "Innovation Ecosystem" poses a grave threat to both the economic prosperity of our country and the security of our children's future. The state of innovation is a critical issue that should be getting more attention in the days leading up to the presidential election.

Leading-edge science and technology have been at the foundation of our country's economic growth for more than a century. Significant inventions like the personal computer, cell phones, and the Net have all driven major cycles of our economic growth. Today, more than ever, our role in the future depends on our ability to sustain a culture that supports and promotes the ability to innovate. Along with the rest of the world, the U.S. faces major challenges -- climate change, national security, dependence on oil, and the need for affordable health care -- that threaten our future. Each of these challenges also brings opportunities - if we give innovation the attention it deserves.

All this frenzied entrepeneurial activity in the Alternative Energy sector (incl EV, hydrogen powered cars, biofuels, solar power, etc) needs to be structured within the above. As I posted earlier, just as the Japanese have designed a Collaborative/Cooperative system involving Govt & Industry for their Auto Sector, & the Germans have done with Fraunhofer Inst (Applied Research directed to assist German Industry, not just Auto).

"A GOOD PLAN, will beat a Good Idea anyday..10 to 1"
-- xx, offroad racing marketing guru (friend of mine)

Otherwise, you will have more snafus like TM experienced last year with the transmission: leading to manufacturing delays, domino effect (Stealth Bloodbath at TM), etc.

"It's not the lazy American worker, which is a myth. It's the fault of American management in auto companies"
-- xx, famous auto-write ("Voyages" 1hr episode on Honda)

"General Motors is a DINOSAUR. They pay executives to DO NOTHING [ maintain the status-quo, not innovate ]"
-- xx, ex HS classmate, U. of Michigan Law School grad

The Technology is one issue (establishing "Innovation Ecosystem", as per J. Estrin), the other (possibly greater) issue is Organization/Infrastructure/Management to allow Technology to flourish (I like J. Estrin's terminology "ecosystem" which implies inter-connectedness, Biology origins).

A) Technology Program
R&D to develop New Technology, application of Technology to Product (e.g., EV manufacture)

B) Business Program
VC, Govt subsidies, good business-model by companies

C) Political Program
making alliances, fighting off enemies. Washington contacts are crucial (to setup an overall R&D infrastructure to be the "turbocharger" for the "engine" of Alternative Energy sector), as are leaders in Academia (e.g., Caltech, UIUC, Georgia-Tech) & Industry (TM, Intel, Northrop-Grumman, Fraunhofer Inst, etc)

If you can do the A/B/C's, then you can be an effective player in Alternative Energy. Look at the Japanese, how they became Automotive superpowers (Toyota is now #1 market-share, leaping over GM) from the depths of WWII. Same thing with Germany (Fraunhofer was created after WWII to boost German industry). Both Germans & Japanese had GOOD PLANS, triggered by the crisis of WWII. America is currently in a crisis (not as bad as losing a war, but close), & they better start moving. It's begining to look like "Too little, too late"

"Increasingly, it's a race between Education [ failing US education system & failing R&D "Innovation Ecosystem" ] & DISASTER"
-- H.G. Welles

The current Stock Market crisis is based on "stupid money", bad risk invesments & flaws in the system. Legalized crookery. Washington better can those idiotic bailouts ("You can't fix STUPID!"), & spend that money more wisely as per above.

"Invest in Technology, & the intellectual-property [ people & Education ] of USA"

Alternative Energy is a hot Tech sector, where America has always shined (J. Estrin points this out). USA has arguably the best collection of universities in the World, look at the lists of Nobelists (slew of Americans). People like Martin, A. Cocconi (his parents were CERN physicists) are part of the "best & brightest" intellectual property that gravitates to top-tier universities like UIUC (2nd ranked engineering univ, tied w/Stanford when Martin & I were at UIUC) & Caltech. To have A. Cocconi "walk away in discust" (that was my impression when I met him @Rose Bowl while R/C flying in 2006) & Martin ejected as part of that kooky Stealth Bloodbath (now recovering emotionally & physically), is INSANE. You can trace all the problems to issues with implementing A/B/C. In Alan's case, it was "C) Political Program" which was the dominant factor: Oil/Auto companies "ganged" the innovators & stifled EV sector. In Martin's case, it was "A/B/C overall" where the powers-to-be didn't put in place an R&D infrastructure like a Germany/Fraunhofer Inst (which would have overcome that transmission snafu smoothly) to act as a "turbocharger" to the emerging Alternative Energy sector.

Going back to the Caltech modus-operanda. Here is what my HS classmate (Stanford Geophysics PhD, his dad was a UIUC Prof in particle physics) told me:

"The Caltech people are really smart, they argue a lot, but in the end..THEY DO THE RIGHT THING"

Steven Koonin on that panel is no accident, I believe there is a Plan by Caltech higher-ups to plant him as a "catalyst" (chief scientist @BP) Other universities (UIUC, Georgia-Tech, etc) should follow that lead, & better yet.. team up w/Caltech to do the same. Go in as Single Cohesive Program. UIUC President (Dr. Joseph White) has a business background, so he would most definitely be interested in being an Academic parnter in an NCSA-like NCEA/Nat'l Center for Energy Applications (virtual R&D infrastructure, spanning Universities & Industry). Same thing, for Georgia-Tech whose GTRI/GaTech Research Inst already is heavily involved with Alternative Energy (Center for Innovative Fuel Cell and Battery Technologies (http://www.gtri.gatech.edu/atlanta/fcbt)). Both have UIUC connections, & furthermore the ex-Gatech colleague of S. Cross (Gatech VP) is now President of Caltech. Obviously, based on the UIUC alumni thread, you have a situation where UIUC, Caltech, Georgia-Tech could form a triumvirate Academic team. Stanford, MIT are also notable universities with strong records in Tech.

[chimpanzee]

The part where Martin mentions that he is working in the auto industry again is a revelation. He mentions working with engineering teams in Germany and Silicon Valley.

http://www.jumplive.com/09sema/sabacar1_sho.jpg

Simon Saba/SABA Motors, X-Prize entry [ Sema '09/Thu ] (http://blip.tv/file/2815599)
SEMA 2009: Simon Saba/Saba Motors, X-Prize EV entry [ Sema '09/Thu ] (http://2009sema.blogspot.com/2009/11/simon-sabasaba-motors-x-prize-entry.html)

Saba Motors, X-Prize entry [ Sema '09/Thu ] (http://blip.tv/file/2815307)
SEMA 2009: Saba Motors, X-Prize EV entry [ SEMA '09/Thu ] (http://2009sema.blogspot.com/2009/11/saba-motors-x-prize-entry-sema-09thu.html)

Saba Motors is based in San Jose.

Simon used some "colorful language" to describe EM. I'm friendly with his ex-wife Justine, who comes to Pasadena (where I live) ocassionally to visit an artist friend. Pasadena is famous for its "Art & Science" via Caltech & Art Center (who produces 90% of Automotive industrial designers).

A former Caltech/JPL colleague of mine (we're both gearheads like Martin) are working on some ideas involving Auto Racing (possibly with an EV link). He used to work at Disney Feature Animation as Manger of Information Technology, in support of the Academy-Award winning CAPS/Computer Animation Production System. Martin & I were office-mates in grad-school, in the area of Aritifical Intelligence/Robotics/Computer Vision -- we had the same Masters Thesis advisor (Dr. Ricardo Uribe/ADSL/Advanced Digital Systems Laboratory). Computer Vision is hooked to Computer Graphics (reverse engineering of the other, aka "Adjoint Methods"), the latter being Loren Carpenter's field -- who is a Roadster owner & TMC member.

You will note that Martin sold his last company Nuvomedia (Rocketbook e-book) for 180 million to the (infamous) Henry Yuen

[ Caltech Math PhD & former Caltech Board of Trustees member, inventor of VCRPlus system..now a wanted felon by the FBI for securities fraud!! ]

This is roughly the same area of Visual Entertainment, where Computer Graphics/Computer Vision is the DRIVING TECHNOLOGY of the highly lucrative Computer Gaming Industry & Special Effects in TV/Film Industry.

[ See above video of Natalya Tatarchuk of ATI (ATI & Nvidia are the 2 heavyweights in Video gaming cards ]

The latter is where my ex-JPL friend & I are dablling in, to explore Visual Entertainment options (related to Automotive & possibly EV).

You can see some vignettes from 2008 SIGGRAPH:

SIGGRAPH 2008 (http://08siggraph.blogspot.com)

[ note the U. of Mass/Amherst Robotics (next to the MIT booth), this is the topic of Martin's Masters Thesis & where I worked in at the same Coordinated Science Laboratory/AARG/Advanced Automation Research Group -- where Martin & I were officemates in summer of '81. The other intern (who mischeviously squirted Martin with water) is now Dr. Andrew Chien of Intel, Director of Research & VP of Corporate Technology


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xThzaIStqCc

28 years ago, we were young stupid kids, now 2 of them are movers/shakers in the Computer Industry. If my proposals come to fruition, there MAY be a convergence of Martin & Andrew & myself
]

Siggraph 2008/Los Angeles (http://caltechscience.com/08siggraph/index.html)

Collection: SIGGRAPH 2008 (http://www.flickr.com/photos/chimpanzee/collections/72157606780936027/)

[ you can see Dr. Ed Catmull, PIXAR founder & President of Disney Animation ]

Bottomline:

"If you're 2 steps ahead, you're considred an IDIOT. If you're 1 step ahead, you're a GENIUS"
-- Gerry Martselos, EV owner of custom Nissan 240SX

interview here (http://blip.tv/file/2826095)

There is a Crazy Idea coming down the pipeline, involving Visual Media & Automotive (related to Dr. Andrew Chien's "Essential Computing", as part of Intel's Exploratory Research). It would benefit future Automotive Technology, most definitely EV. Hint: I'm the "IDIOT" (see my avatar, if you don't believe me)



I spent 2 days in the Green Power area (upper floor of South Hall), gaining business-contacts. Strangely, Tesla was a no-show at the X-Prize booth.

[chimpanzee]

The part where Martin mentions that he is working in the auto industry again is a revelation. He mentions working with engineering teams in Germany and Silicon Valley.

My former high-school classmate (Dr. Ted Scheidegger, PhD in Computer Science & Business) was CFO for Siemens Solar in Camarillo/CA. It was bought out by Shell Oil. He is now CEO of Sovello, a German PV (solar cell) manufacturing company.

My other high-school classmate (PhD in Materials Science, U. of Arizona) is a leading PV fabricator at NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Home Page (http://www.nrel.gov)). He knows many of the CEOs & CTOs of various PV companies in the US.

2 of us have been talking about PV, in support of the future power-grid, to support EV & Hybrids. I believe Martin & Marc are working as Alternative Energy consultants for a VC firm. There was an article about Marc & a German-based PV firm (competitor to Sovello, I believe)

Obviously, with my 2 contacts, a deal could be readily made via a "top-down" approach. I.e., goto the decision-making high level executives.

[ I did so with another UIUC alumni (PhD '93, Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning -- same field as Martin & myself as part of AI/Robotics/Computer Vision triumvirate), who is Vice President & Director of Research of XXXX (700 million dollar US Govt contractor). Again, we converged in Auto Racing (DARPA Grand Challenge):

DARPA Grand Challenge 2005 (http://www.darpa.mil/grandchallenge05/gcorg/index.html)

The Google founders were in attendance (who invested in Tesla Motors), as was Steve Wozniak. This niche-market Auto Racing (Desert Off Road) is my specialty,

Offroad Nation (http://offroad-nation.blogspot.com)

which has a team who was a Development Partner for Xtrac. They solved the multiple-speed gearbox problem, that eluded Tesla for its Roadsters. They had the same "instantaneous shock load" issue as Tesla (thru comparative problem domains), & were breaking transmissions. After a year of Empiricism (repeated re-design & testing), they developed a working gearbox. Got their FIRST win ever last year, & followed it up with multiple wins last year & this year. They are going into this year's Baja 1000 race, vying for the class championship.

Another Xtrac client built this Trophy Truck, seen at last week's SEMA show:

SEMA 2009: Steve Sourapas TT #6, Fox Shox booth [ SEMA '09/Thu ] (http://2009sema.blogspot.com/2009/11/steve-sourapas-tt-6-fox-shox-booth-sema.html)

]

I've been sitting back the last 2 years, waiting for things to "settle out" at Tesla. It looks like Martin is also weighing several options, about to jump back in.

I met the ex-CTO of Hewlett Packard at the X-Prize booth, he's a member of 1 of the teams.

[vfx]

Doesn't Ed Catmull own a Roadster?

[chimpanzee]

Interesting interview with a couple of Auto enthusiasts (Brian from Cupertino, Chris from San Diego), & their take on "Alternative Energy":

2009 LA Auto Show: Chris & Brian, Ford Raptor booth [ '09 LA Auto Show ] (http://2009laautoshow.blogspot.com/2009/12/chris-brian-ford-raptor-booth-09-la.html)
Chris & Brian, Ford booth (Raptor) [ '09 LA Auto Show ] (http://blip.tv/file/2934977)

[ Brian mentions Jason Voss (whose family I'm friends with), who is from Cupertino & races Offroad in Protruck & now Trophy Truck. Jason was at the recent SEMA 2009 show at the KICKER party:

http://2009sema.blogspot.com/2009/11/kicker-party-palms-casino-bj-baldwinr.html

He just got a Jimco Trophy Truck (was an Xtrac Development Partner at 1 time), but it burned to the ground at the recent BITD Silver State 300 ]

They are not so convinced about the viability of a Prius ($40K price point, bad handling & brakes, issues with costly battery replacement in the future, etc), & how a Honda DX (?) natural-gas powered car would be a better value/option. They are talking short-term (now). Long term, Hybrids & EVs will be a valid option

They also mention the Environmentalist agenda as being hype (which it is, Alternative Energy is the latest bandwagon). Many scientists don't believe in Global Warming (in Science circles, this is what's known as "controversial"), & neither do I.

"The earth is doing fine, it's been dealing with Environmental Disasters since the Dawn of Time"

[ HUGE geological disasters like volcanism, e.g. Mt. Pinatubo many yrs ago pumped HUMONGOUS amounts of particulate matter in the atmosphere, that dwarfs the CO2 emissions, that environmentalists complain about. The Mt. St. Helens volcanic eruption laid the nearby mtns into a seemingly wasteland. However, Biologists were surprised to see how fast growth became to take root. See? Nature is very resilient to disasters, & recovers quickly. It's been doing this for EONs. ]

The CO2 emissions (bad as they are, admittedly) is just a "drop in the ocean". So, the argument should be as per M. Eberhard's talk title (back at U. of Illinois in 2007?):

"Doing something worthwhile"

instead of the "Sky is Falling" argument, backed by most of the Environmentalists (especially the extremists, aka Eco Nazis). The niche-market I'm familiar with (offroad racing) is at war with the Environmentalists (taking away desert land to race on, & develop trucks for Ford/Chevy/Dodge/Hummer/VW, etc). I met Alan Cocconi back in 2006 (at the Rose Bowl, where a group of us flying electric R/C airplanes), & when I mentioned I was involved with offroad racing, he ran off like I had the plague. That's how "idealogically based infighting" creates political barriers.

But, unfortunately, the world is "moved" by Emo ("emotion", RDF/Reality Distortion Field), & "It is what it is". If this Global Warmiong RDF (hype & bogus) is what it takes to move Alternative Energy to the forefront, so be it!

"If Life gives you lemons [ hype/bogus Global Warming ], MAKE LEMONADE [ movement towards Alternative Energy ]"
-- turning Sour into Sweet

History may show that "2 wrongs make a right", that's how MESSED UP this world is. Go up to the previous interview, with the 2 fans of Karma (see my previous reply), the World is governed by Stupidity/Idiocy.

"In Greece, Wise Men [ M. Eberhard's EV startup Tesla Motors, followed by others ] speak...FOOLS [ politiicans ] DECIDE"
-- Epitectus

M. Eberhard is beginning to achieve a brand-name, equivalent that to of Hero. As per, "Saving the World" from Idiots. Look at all the announced EV & Hybrids, & Concept Cars at this LA Auto Show. It can all be traced back to a guy "trying to make a difference" with a revolutionary startup in Silicon Valley.

"Be the change you want to see in the World"
-- Mahatma Ghandi

M.E. & others (Fisker included) are part of this heroic effort by some creative/entrepeneurial individuals & their companies.

MOPAR (pronounced "more power") to 'ya!!

[johnr]

With all the huge glaciers melting from Antarctica and et al, I can't comprehend how anyone could deny that climate change is real. However I really don't want to debate that - people have their own opinions and it's unlikely anyone will change their minds. But you know what, it doesn't matter to me. I'm with you that we need energy alternatives now, namely electric cars, for plenty of other reasons - to cut back on our oil imports, which might as well be called foreign aid to terrorists; to reduce air and noise pollution; to introduce an improved technology and generate spin-off technologies; to jump-start the economy; to improve the reliability of the electric grid and give renewable energy a boost via V2G storage; etc, etc... BTW, nice pics - thanks for sharing!

[Norbert]

Once such statements as "drop in the ocean" are made, a response is in place wherever and however they are made.

The thing with CO2 is that unlike any natural disasters, since no negative damping feedback effects are known, the CO2 effect has the potential to escalate until we stop it (one way or the other, so to speak).

The problem with the "drop in the ocean" argument is that the natural CO2 emission and consumption are in balance, whereas we disturb that balance on both sides by also destroying (rain)forests. What matters is not the size of the "ocean", but the amount of the resulting imbalance, which is much larger than any natural imbalance we know of.

[Chris H.]

Bob, you may want to watch this video, and pay particular attention around the 1 minute & 50 seconds mark:

Interview with Tesla Motors CEO en Yahoo! Video (http://espanol.video.yahoo.com/watch/62070/1083768)

[chimpanzee]

I'm sitting at a Wahoo's Fish Taco restaurant (across the street from John Force Racing, in Yorba Linda/CA), doing some Same-Day uploads

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2650/4164364547_6590233c4c_o.jpg

Wahoo's sponsors Auto Racing (especially in Offroad, my specialty). They were part of the 2007 Pro 2 Championship team in CORR (see video here (http://corracing.blogspot.com/2007/05/click-on-above-image-to-play-qt-video.html) of a race they won back in 2007). The restaurant is plastered with Auto Racing sponsor stickers.

Just finished covering the John Force Racing Auto Show (Yorba Linda, CA), where there were autos galore. Classics & some super cars (Ferrari & Bugatti).

Collection: 2009 LA Auto Show (http://www.flickr.com/photos/chimpanzee/collections/72157622924067112/)

Click on "12/6 John Force Racing Auto Show", more perspective on Automotive (classics, supercars, drag racing), which should help people gauge the EV/hybrid startups (Tesla, Fisker, et al) in terms of their future viability.

Bugatti:
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2642/4164349761_6e05859c62_o.jpg

'61 Corvette (owned by a woman named India, which won an Award!)
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2655/4165105958_eff2cf6cd7_o.jpg


I mentioned the below to M. Eberhard, back on Press Day #1 at Chevy Volt media presentation:


Auto Racing is a market which Automotive startups need to address (incl Tesla Motors, Fisker, et al). There is a History Channel series (airs on Thu, 1am Pacific Time?) where major Auto Mfrs are profiled:

Ferrari, VW, Porsche, Mercedes, Audi, Jaguar, Honda, Nissan, et al

[ I sent a copy of them to Martin back in Spring 2008 ]

ALL of them were heavily involved with Auto Racing from the start, since an auto race is a great testbed for Technology. Plus, 1 race can substitute for Durability/Reliability testing (over months), since it is an Extreme Duty environment. All the major mfrs are inovlved with Auto Racing (GM, Ford, Dodge, Ferrari, Porsche, Audi, etc). This is part of their "critical mass", their big $$, R&D, staff which can do mass mfg'ing.

"awakened the sleeping giant"

I think Tesla Motors GREATEST contribution (via Martin Eberhard & Marc Tarpening), was their role as "instigator", "catalyst", "the straw that stirs the drink" (Reggie Jackson term, who was termed Mr. October for his post-season heroics in Baseball playoffs), to jump-start the stagnant status-quo of the major mfrs.

The small startups STILL have the "+" of being

Agile/Mobile/Hostile
[ a football term describing a "pro-active agressive" line-backer ]

The major mfrs have the Infrastructure to tap into Auto Racing (for R&D testing), mass mfg'ing capaility, big money & resources. However, the recent DoE/Dept of Energy ATVM/Advanced Technology Vehicle Mfg'ing, may shift some power to the "rebel" startups (Tesla Motors, Fisker, et al), which gives them some capital to work with. To, attack the mass mfg'ing & human/$$ resources issue.

"Increasilngly, it's a RACe between Education [ R&D, "Book Knowledge" ] & Disaster [ failure in startups ]"
-- H.G. Welles, 193x

H.G. Welles was adressing the failure in Education in USA (back in the 30's!!?), but the principle applies today. The Education system in USA is FAILING in Math/Science/Technology/Mathematics (aka STEM). See above interview with ITS guy, who pointed out:

"most of the PhDs awarded in top-level U.S. universities, are to foreign students"

In order for the U.S. based automotive startups to succeed & compete against foreign auto mfrs (Audi of Germany, BYD of China, Nissan/Toyota/Honda of Japan, VW/Daimler/BMW, et al), America MUST re-tool their Education system.


The above is where my activity/role will be for the coming Alternative Energy "revolution". It needs a consortium of Academic/Indsutrial partners (incl Tesla, Fisker, et al) to act as an "insurance policy" to address issues that come up in Technology

"In order to Push the Limits, sometimes you have to EXCEED THE LIMTS"
-- Bob Varsha, Australian Grand Prix, 198x

[ the race where Jackques Villeneuve lost his rear-wing & crashed out ]

Tesla demonstrated this (I think), when they ran into issues finding a transmission vendor to build a 2-speed transmission. Nobody had done that before (AC Propulsion's Tzero prototype used a 1-speed, so Tesla was essentially in a "prototype mode" for a 2-speed tranny). So, Tesla actually did a "test": they discovered that an external R&D consortium (Industrial & Academic Cooperative/Collaborative effort) is required. Consider THAT a major contribution to EV/Hybrid starttups

"Success is 90% failure
-- Soichiro Honda

So, Tesla was quite the pioneer (via co-founders M Eberhard & M. Tarpening), in "pushing the Limits", in a Discovery Process of "what works, & what doesn't".

Back to John Force Racing (NHRA drag racing), & Auto Racing in general. Racing is a continual (maddening) process of Trial & Error. I don't know if many people know it, but Tesla was acting like a Auto Race team. Pushing the Limits, & disccovering "+"'s & "-"'s. Probably, the MOST important discoveries are the "-"'s (what didn't work), anybody can not-push-the-limits & do ordinary stuff ("which works"). The deep-thinkers will be working hard to itemize/address the challenges ("-"'s discovered), & they will be the ones who succeed.

"Knowledge [ especially "Book Knowledge" from Academic/Industrial R&D ] is Power"

Not many people know this, but M. Eberhard was an intellectual & great book-reader (all I remember about my visit to his apartment, was a HUGE line of books on a shelf above his bed). His previous company Nuvomedia (which sold for 180 million) was an e-book reader.

[Norbert]

A lot of things will change when the first EVs start winning on the race track. Although I don't think that's the most important thing right now, given that the Roadster is already very impressive, I'd hope that some are already working on that. Probably most things except the batteries could already be developed.

[vfx]

Nice reporting.

Thanks for all the work writing it all up for us. You could save some effort and also make it easier to read if you would not drift off your own topic. ie: Global Warming opinions, Off-Road-everything and a trip to another car show.

Thanks for the pics too.

[chimpanzee]

Nice reporting.

Thanks for all the work writing it all up for us. You could save some effort and also make it easier to read if you would not drift off your own topic. ie: Global Warming opinions, Off-Road-everything and a trip to another car show.

Thanks for the pics too.

Hi, did you get to the LA Auto show yet?

"Everything's [ all niche-markets, science-domains, etc ] RELATED"
-- Murray Gell-Mann, Caltech Physics (Nobelist, Quantum Chromodynamics)

All the

1) Global Warming
impetus for Alternative Energy startups & DoE/ATVM initiative, etc

2) Offroad
Xtrac, a former Tesla transmission vendor, is heavily involved in Rally & Offroad in USA, with many Development partners

3) other car shows
John Force Racing/NHRA, which is a success stroy like M. Eberhard: Good Upbringing leads to Successful Career

gives perspective on how the new Alternative Energy startups, will succeed or fail.


Take a look at the interview with Vini/"Big Daddy's Toys" (famous custom car shop, did the Monorail @Disney & other cars many of you have seen/experienced):

2009 John Force Auto Show: Vini & Co, "Big Daddy's Toys" [ '09 John Force Auto Show ] (http://2009johnforceautoshow.blogspot.com/2009/12/vini-co-big-daddys-toys-09-john-force.html)
Vini & Co, "Big Daddy's Toys" [ '09 John Force Auto Show ] (http://blip.tv/file/2946549)

http://www.jumplive.com/09johnforce/mrbig_sho.jpg

Vini talks about how John Force went from "trailer park" to a NHRA champion (Funny Car), with a 4-car super-team sponsored by Castrol GTX, Ford, Sanyo (non-endemic sponsor..Tech field). A TRUE American success story:

"Class always figures out a way to WIN"
-- It's all about Integrity/Credibility

John Force runs his team(s), like his Family: "La Familia", everyone helps everyone else. "Help the people who help you" (a famous phrase from Offroad Racing).

Now, let's consider M. Eberhard (former office-mate of mine in Graduate School @UIUC, summer '81). I always REMEMBERED Martin, how friendly/outgoing/gregarious he was. Like on the 1st day, he invited myself & Y.C. Pan (another crazy Asian) to his apartment, with a ride in his '67 Mustang. A shlef LINED from wall-to-wall with books, Martin was a GREAT reader ("book worm"). I also have a visual of him, bent over at the desk..studiously reading.

He was a very special guy, he really stood out. I am NOT surprised he went on to become a successful serial entrepeneur (sold his last compnay Nuvomedia for 180 million), which allowed him the luxury of starting Tesla Motors (outside his specialty, but his 1st love: Automotive).

Now, we all know that Tesla Motors was a revolutionary EV startup in Silicon Valley. Very "out of the box" thinking, quite the

"we just knocked the Establishment [ big 3 Auto mfrs ], on its STATUS QUO"
-- Hawaii 5-O episode, hippies who robbed a bank

What Tesla Motors has to do, is to follow the Example/Lead of John Force Racing.

"Rome wasn't built overnight"

"It's a LONG RACE..we will set a pace for ourselves, to sort out the equipment. THEN, at the 400 mile mark, WE'LL GO RACING"
-- Class 1 team crew chief, '97 Baja 500

"You can't win the race on the 1st lap, BUT YOU CAN CERTAINLY LOSE IT"

"Slow & Steady..WINDS THE RACE"
-- Tortoise & Hare fable

The Burning Question in my mind (& others on TMC), is..will Tesla Motors survive & if so..will it try a "bomb run" (trophy dash) or a "steady sustained long term effort"??

It is very clear to me, that when Martin & company (incl Wally Rippel, Aerovironment & Caltech alumni, Judy Estrin whose dad was Vinton Cerf's PhD advisor) were ex-communicated from Tesla, that this was a MAJOR MISTAKE. THey lost not only the "heart & soul", but the Integrity/Credibility (ala John Force) that was the "it starts from the top" Philsophy for Success. Martin is certainly a good guy, & the successor seems to be the exact opposite. Bad News.

I also sense, that Tesla is trying to move TOO FAST (stores around the World??), which is a "recipe for disaster" (see above quotes on "discretion is the better part of valor"). They just got an infusion of funds from DoE/ATVM (450 million), so that's a plus towards the Model S mid-range $50K family car. However, Tesla has NEVER built a car on their own (up to know it's more or less "systems integration" from a chassis supplier like Lotus, PEM from ACP, etc). Tesla DID design the battery pack (w/controls) & recently JB Straubel re-designed the PEM from the ground up..all digital (? did I get this right, the ACP had some analog components).

I will give Elon Musk credit for something: he's a forceful entity ("bully", in the good sense of the word). A historical example from the Russian Space Program illustrates this:

"Korolev, you're a GENIUS. You turned a pile of crap.into a bed of Roses"
-- xxx, convincing politicians his stumbling Space Program was on track

"When Korolev died, the Russian Space Program lost its leader. The successor simply didn't have the uumph to keep everything together"
--- yyy

"He [ Larry Summers, during his tenure as Harvard President ] was DOWNRIGHT BULLY!! He helped certain people, but at the same tiime he bullied others"
-- Harvard anthropology professor
[ Note that L. Summers is presently on Obama's administration. I LIKE THIS GUY: he's smart & aggressive. WE WANT PEOPLE LIKE THAT. ]

So, is Elon Musk the "bully" who will push Tesla towards eventual success? Or, will his Super Ego ("megalomaniac proportions", a term used by historians to describe Alexander the Great), do him in? Obviously, there needs to be a balance between Ego & Integrity (the latter is what separates Martin from the pack)

He's got a LOT of stuff going on (lots on his plate), SpaceX & Tesla. The famous advice in business applies

"the main reason for failure, is LACK OF FOCUS"
"when you attack, you use your FIST..not your fingers spread"
-- Heinz Guderian, German Panzer commander (inventor of German Blitzkrieg, aka "Lightning War")

It's a FASCINATING question, & the Scenario is being played out in front of us (America as well, even the World), with the future of Alternative Energy at stake. With implications of how America will get out of the Economic Crisis (triggered by GREED, Incompetence, Stupidity, Unethical behavior, etc).

Funny thing, the answer to the above question is very much dependent on the actions of Entrepeneurs, Scientists, Researchers (Academia & Industry)..TODAY. I will be jumping into the fray, as will Martin (& others). There is some tactical/strategic planning, to figure out a "move"..

"Deals are what make the World..go 'round"

to help the Alternative Energy Industry as a whole, as well as ones own interest (Creative + Business). Tony Anasatz/GM (good friend w/Martin, Vehicle Line Director, Chevy Volt, Global Electric Vehicle Development) is also a Big Picture thinker, he has a dual role as

Co-Chairman, EDTA, electricdrive.org

which is an organization to act as Collaboration/Cooperation amongst the (Competitive) Mfrs. I.e, there needs to be a balance between Collaboration & Competition. Competition will be beneficial to Mfrs & Consumers: the Technology will advance, with a lower price-point for Consumers. At the same time, Collaborations ("sharing of information") will aid this process, as well. The Las Vegas casinos use this paradigm, btw. THey are competitors, but they also share information on casino demographics.

Many of you already know that I'm pushing for an NCEA/National Ctr for Energy Applications, a consortium of Universities & Industry for R&D in the new domain of Alternative Energy. It will act like a "safety net" for all the AE companies, who are bound to run into Tech problems:

"In order to Push the Limits, sometimes you have to EXCEED THE LIMITS"
-- Formula 1 racing

This is in line with Tony Anasatz's line of thinking, so I'm sure GM (& other AUto Mfrs) will be receptive to this idea. Martin's former mentor @U. of Illinois (Dr. Ed Davidson, who I've been in touch with), moved on to U. of Michigan/Electrical Eng Dept as Dept Head. Hint: he has connections to the Big 3 Auto Mfrs. Of course, we would want Martin involved as an Advisor (or maybe more).

So, there you have it. John Force Racing is a "pedestal" of how Integrity/Credibility (great person, family man, gregarious, et al) leads to BIG SUCCESS. Martin is along this Lineage of "Class always figures out a way to Win".

So, given the above Perspective, you tell me..Will Tesla succeed with the current "it starts from the Top". Or, will there be a WEIRD Korolev (or Larry Summers) effect, where Elon Musk pulls it off?

Stay tuned, Same Bat-Time, Same Bat-Channel

[ BTW, this is GREAT stuff for Chris Paine's next film project. He & his staff were at GM's booth, working like crazy, doing interviews. Trying to track down Bob Lutz, after he had to bug out to his private jet (after taking a lunch break). All of us were waiting for Bob, to come back..but he didn't ]

[chimpanzee]

There are 3 challenges ("bullet points") for Alternative Energy auto startups:

1) Technology Program
attacking CORE technologies. Battery Tech, for EV & Hybrids

2) Business Program
incentives to help Business. DoE/ATVM helps the Mfrs, tax credits helps the consumers

3) Political Program
making "friends in high places" to help with 3) Business Program. Making Allies (finding business partners, e.g. Tesla deal with Daimler) & fighting off Enemies.


My involvement is totally accidental (an "end around", football term), my "Multimedia Technology Demonstration". I.e., blogs used as a form of Media 'casting. It was originally designed for Offroad Racing, to give them much needed LiveWebCast from the isolated desert races (with no conventional communications). It expanded to Pavement Racing, then to HEP/High Energy Physics (particle accelerators, String Theory, Multiverse, Parallel Dimensions, Higgs Boson, Fermilab, CERN/LHC/Large Hadron Collider, etc)

[ note that Alan Cocconi's parents were CERN physicists, he's from Switzerland. I.e., European sophisitication led to the GM EV1 ]

Now, to Alternative Energy auto startups, & NHRA (very recently).

I am just STUNNED. None of the major mfrs at the LA Auto show (even Tesla) are using this iTunes video-podcast medium!! iTunes is a Portal into itself (with a search engine), so all you have to do is this:

"find us on iTunes [ search for Tesla, Chevy Volt, Audi E-tron, BMW Mini-E, Subaru Tourer, etc ], download promotional videos for free to your iPod/iTouch/iPhone, carry in your pocket, show to friend (which show to their friends..VIRAL MARKETING in your pocket"

The Big 3 are Myspace, Twitter, Facebook as the Triumvirate of SN/Social Networking Viral Marketing mediums. The core Technology is SEARCH, i.e.

"you might want to become Friends [ on Facebook ] with XXX, YYY, etc. or become a member of this ZZZ group"

This is the Viral "branching effect" that can lead to "cluster fu**k" aggregation.

I've been carrying around my iPod Classic/iPhone 3G/iTouch/iPod Nano, showing automotive related video-podcasts (even videos from LA Auto Show). Urging Auto Mfrs:

"Next year, you need to have all your promotional videos (seen on Press-Days, on the big-screen) over iTunes video-podcast, with a big sign at your booth"

I've had THREE YEARS of experience, & it's UNREAL. Most Marketing people are NOT Technology savvy, so they're still STUCK on "Standard Model" Marketing:

TV/Magazines/Newspapers

Some have embraced the Web 2.0 SN/social networking mediums like Myspace, Twitter,Facebook. But, still, iTunes video-podcast is neglected.

I mean, part of 2) Business Program & 3) Political Program, is informing those domains (General Public & Politiicans):

"Suppose you were an Idiot, suppose you were a Congressman..BUT I REPEAT MYSELF"
-- Mark Twain

"Wise Men Speak [ M. Eberhard, et al ], FOOLS [ politicians ] DECIDE"
-- Epitectus

"Half the people in America never voted, half never read the newspaper..ONE HOPE IT'S THE SAME HALF"
-- Gore Videal

I rest my case. It's a TOUGH SELL, to the American Public & Politicians (as a whole: Morons/Idiots/Fools). At SEMA 2009, I met Kara Lawson (Harvard grad, Math major, from a sophisticated East Coat family, very smart girl), where we engaged in this discussion. She told me about the movie "Idiocracy", where lowlifes (smelly, toothless, inbred, uneducated..passing it along to their children) were pro-creating, thus dooming this Country into Oblivion.

I say the AE auto mfrs have a TOUGH ROAD, in Inspiring an otherwise BRAIN DEAD population. 2 of my good friends (both U. of Arizona alumni, 1 is an adjunct Astronomy professor @Steward Observatory) have both said to me:

"We're [ America ] in the Dark Ages"

Good luck in explaining EV (or Hybrids), & why it's "doing something worthwhile" (title of Martin's talk at UIUC Physics Dept back in 2008/Sept). They could probably care less: gas guzzlers is what they know, & that's about it!

Public Outreach/Education

the Public has to have Alternative Energy (EV, Hybrid, et al) in their Mindset.

The Toyota Prius is a revolution, because there are thousands (tens of?) on the road, which is generating a Buzz & referral sales. It was pointed out to me by a Spyker dealer (in Houston), that Fisker has to get their cars out on the Road ("walk the walk"). Up to now, it's just "talk the talk" (promo & hype). Same thing with Tesla's Model S (1st attempt to Manufacture their own car).

Why there isn't Web 2.0 Multimedia (Youtube channel, iTunes video-podcast, et al) as part o their PR/Marketing Media Package..is BEYOND ME!!

I was at the Tesla LA store last May, & I was just stunned to hear the Mgr (has since left), say he was formerly with Ebay Motors. I was just standing there wondering "why doesn't Tesla have promo videos over iTunes?". I mean, there's an Apple billboard RIGHT ABOVE the Tesla LA Store, featuring iPod advertisement

[ the music group, who showed up at the LA Store, who went to dinner with Elon Musk. Justine received an invitation by Elon to join them, see her blog ]

I mean, the contrast is just MIND BOGGLING. I ran into someone at last year's SIGGRAPH 2008

[ featuring Dr. Ed Catmull of PIXAR/Disney Animation..a co-founder Loren Carpenter is on TCM, who is a Roadster owner

Ed Catmull autograph-session [ 8/11 Mon ] - a set on Flickr (http://www.flickr.com/photos/chimpanzee/sets/72157606777740112/)

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3221/2769941871_6b65371914.jpg

Ed Catmull wants the Model S, not the Roadster. To give some persepctive of where Martin/I came from (triumvirate of Artificial Intelligence/Robotics/Computer Vision.the DRIVING TECHNOLOGY (no pun intended) behind Autonomous Vehicles ("robot cars"):

SIGGRAPH 2008 (http://08siggraph.blogspot.com)

check out the U. Mass/Amherst robot. THAT is the kind of tech that can find itself into the oncoming EVs..AMAZING. The DARPA Grand Challenge ("robot race in the desert"):

NOVA | The Great Robot Race | PBS (http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/darpa/)
DARPA Grand Challenge 2005 (http://www.darpa.mil/grandchallenge05/gcorg/index.html)

[ note that the 2 Google founders (L. Page & S. Brin, who have invested in Tesla) were in attendance, as was Steve Wozniak, Apple co-founder ]

1 of the 2 DARPA GC contractors was XXX (700 million dollar Govt contractor, located in Beltway of Wasnington DC), whose Vice President & Director of Research is an alumni ('93 PhD/UIUC) of the same dept as Martin/I: Artificial Intelligence.

That's THREE UIUC AI/Robotics/Computer Vision alumni (Martin '83 M.S. Elec Eng, me '84 PhD Elec Eng, Dr. Scott T. '93 PhD Computer Science), who are converging on "Smart/Future Cars". WTF, 25 yrs later we're all "meeting up", like a reunion type of a deal.

Do you feel KARMA ("Convergent Evolution", people from different domains, converging on the same "solution"), or what!!

BTW, there was a FOURTH UIUC/Coordinated Science Laboratory/AARG (Advanced Automation Research Group) alumni who attended the DARPA GC as media (he works for Intel as his day job).

( his desk was across, from where Martin was wire-wrapping a PC board..while Andrew Chien..now Dr. Andrew Chien..Intel Director of Research & Vice-President of Corporate Technology, was mischieviously squrting Martin with water!!?? Across the way (office), was Steve Cross (office-mate with Rod Fletcher, who designed the High Speed Image Buffer, that Martin was wire-wrapping), who is now Dr. Steve Cross..Vice President of Georgia-Tech & President of GTRI/GaTech Research Inst. GTRI has all sorts of hitech projects in Automotive (ATAS/Aerospace Transportation Advanced Systems), in conjunction with ONR/Office of Naval Research (fronting for Army & Navy). Also involved with Battery Tech R&D (!!)

BTW, Steve's former GaTech colleague (Jean Chameau) is now President of Caltech, the latter which produced the renowned EV engineers Wally Rippel & Alan Cocconi. )


From the above, this "Convergence" of UIUC, Georgia-Tech/GTRI, Caltech/JPL people (all rooted from UIUC), means ONE THING. Something BIG's gonna happen. See below for the NASA/JPL project that's about to take wings (millions of dollar will be spent). Doug & TEG may be part of this Project.

]

who was shooting panoramas (real estate applications). I was investigating some Tesla related ideas, & he told me he had contacted Tesla about his services, & basically got NO RESPONSE!!

Well, 2 days ago I shot some overhead panos of the Yellow Roadster @Al & Ed's, my friend Jook Leung (world renowned Panorama photographer) will be stitching it in the next day or so. It will be available on (free) Pangea app, on the iPhone. So, soon all TMC members (with iPhones), can run around with a "pocket VR/Virtual Reality" of the Roadster. Pull it out of your pocket, show your friends:

"This is what it's like to sit in a Tesla Roadster"

It's the next best thing, to seeing one in person at a Tesla STore (good for potential clients who are NOT in an area with a Tesla Store). It may also attract potential buyers, who don't even know about Tesla Motors. I;ve been asking many people (LA Auto show), & GET THIS:

some people know about Tesla, SOME PEOPLE DON'T!!

This "datapoint" should tell Tesla (& other AE auto startups):

"GET MOVING on this Public Outreach/Education, using Viral Marketing SN/Social Networking Mediums."

I've been so busy, I haven't checked. Facebook has groups for various special interests, so there SHOULD be one setup for teh Chevy Volt, Tesla Roadster, Subaru Tourer, Audi E-tron. Heck, Tesla Motors Club, should have an associated Twitter, Facebook, Myspace, iTunes video-podcast accounts. ( I believe they've been moving towards 1 of these)

I setup a test "Tesla Roadster" iTunes video-podcast:

Tesla Roadster (http://tesla-roadster.blogspot.com)

to document the real co-founders of Tesla Motors (M. Eberhard & M. Tarpening). When Carolyn Eberhad ("XCEOs wife" on TMC) implored everyone to realize how History might get it wrong, I PM'd her about the above video-blog (syndicated on iTunes as a video-podcast). No response.

=========================

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2740/4030337256_47f096dccd_o.jpg

But, good news. My former colleague at JPL/Image Processing Lab 20 yrs ago

[ Kevin H., who became famous by founding DIAL//Digital Image Animation Lab, who went on to Disney Feature Animation as Mgr of Information Technology, in support of the Academy-Award winning CAPS/Computer Animation Production System. He's now back at JPL as Mgr of Visualization Technology & Applications Development, as part of JPL's Communication & Outreach division ]

at NASA/JPL wants this iTunes solution for an upcoming Mars mission (MSL/Mars Science Laboratory, 6-wheeled EV rover..ALL ELECTRIC with PV solar array)

Mars Science Laboratory (http://marsprogram.jpl.nasa.gov/msl/)

& they are looking for an Automotive partner (Racing or Race Team, Racer, EV startup, Iconic figure, etc).

Collection: Meeting w/Kevin Hussey/JPL/Mgr of Visualization Technology Applications & Development, towards STEM/Science/Technology/Engineering/Mathematics Outreach (http://www.flickr.com/photos/chimpanzee/collections/72157622627654220/)

A few million (or more) will be spent, so this would be a coup for an EV company: partner with a world-renowned brand-name like NASA/JPL, using cross-platform PR/Marketing. Obviously, Tesla Motors would be a candidate, as would Martin Eberhard (iconic figure). I like Audi & there E-tron (2012 target production date). Chevrolet & their Volt (expected Fall 2010 delivery date), perfect timing for the 2011 MSL launch date.

I see a team of partners for the above. I think Doug (PhD candidate @STanford Physics) & TEG (engineering background, friend w/Martin) are also candidates, along with Martin, they do a good job of being a voice for EV. Especially, since Tesla is moving its HQ next to Stanford. I also have a theoretical particle physicist friend (SLAC/Stanford Linear Acclerator, who does a LOT of Public Outreach work), who attended JB Straubel's talk @SLAC with her colleagues. They all were INPSIRED, & wanted Tesla's.

I.e., you could get PAID to push EV to the masses, over iTunes video-podcast.

"Be the Change you want to see in the World"
-- Mahatma Ghandi

Doug & TEG could quit being "observers", & be "participants" in this EV revolution (like what Martin did by co-founding Tesla). I'm about to become active as well, the above is the 1st "shot across the bow". A NASA/JPL cross-platform PR/Marketing campaign, worth a few million.

[AntronX]

Holy s**t:eek:, this guy is ON FIRE!:biggrin::rolleyes:

[chimpanzee]

Holy s**t:eek:, this guy is ON FIRE!:biggrin::rolleyes:

It goes like this:

At the time when Martin/Steve Cross/I were atUIUC was the 2nd ranked Engineering Univ, tied w/Stanford..MIT ranked #1. It ATTRACTS the top talent, who have big egos & ambition. Steve Cross was from Air Force, his high Academics were recognized & thus he was sent to UIUC for further development. He became the Head of CMU's SEI/Software Engineering Institute, ONR/Office of Naval Research Program Manager, then finally VP of Georgia-Tech & President of GTRI. I am NOT surprised that Steve & Martin became leaders in their respective fields, that's the whole purpose of elite Universities:

"recruiting Top Talent, & Developing them"

Another guy in the same office in '83 (a couple years after Martin was there in '81), was Steve Blostein.

[ he is now Prof of Electrical Eng at Queens Univ (Harvard of the North), the alma mater for Justine Musk (English major, who is now a famous novelist). Where Elon Musk & Justine met. Steve married my other officemate Dr. Dorothea Haken (prof of Computer Science @Queens U.), her father Wolfgang got famous for the computer proof of the 4-color Theorem with Dr. Kenneth Appel (his son Andrew is Prof of Computer Science @Princeton, & Dept Head, Andrew & I went to the same infamous High School), her grandfather was Max Planck's PhD student. ]

His Dad was the Head of Bell Northern Research (Bell Labs of Canada). I.e., my PhD advisor (famous MIT PhD, pioneer in Image Coding) attracted the son of a leading R&D Institution. And, another guy was William Ho (good friends with Rod Fletcher, the guy who designed the High Speed Image Buffer, Martin was wirewrapping a board for). His dad (Irving Ho) RAN the whole Technology Park in Taiwan!! You will note that Tesla Roadster's electric motor is made in Taiwan. My other office-mate Homer Chen became Professor of Electrical Eng @NTU (National Taiwan Univ), "Irving Ho Chair professor". I met Homer for the 1st time in 24 years at last years SIGGRAPH 2008:

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3167/2769740709_ffcf98d004.jpg

His student had a paper at this prestigous conference, which hosts developers/researchers for the lucrative Computer Gaming & Special Effects in TV/Film (the latter is the domain of Loren Carpenter/PIXAR, Tesla Roadster owner)

Another guy, Ken T. (Class of '78/UIUC Elec Eng, I'm Class of '79 BS Elec Eng) went on to lead the QTVR group @Apple. He is now at Google (working on the Streetview VR functionality of Google Maps). He is a Computer Graphics Legend, I met him last year at SIGGRAPH 2008:

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3180/2769942569_4e60dcd43b.jpg

Ken is a math whiz (very deep guy), & gets invites to Stanford & MIT for talks, given his pioneering work in VR. He's an Icon, like Martin is.


Bottomline:

Martin should be tapping into some of his old UIUC alumni (incl me), for some future Projects. You will note that his trusted friend M. Tarpening (Berkeley grad) was a co-founder of Tesla.


At the time, some of the Elec Eng faculty considered UIUC to be #1: quality & quantity. The hot thing, was to get an MBA along with your Engineering degree, & then go out in the Real World & kick some a**. You saw how Martin Eberhard did JUST THAT, as he became a serial entrepeneur.

BTW, another guy was Marc Andreesen of NCSA Mosaic fame (he came along after Martin & I left UIUC, in the late 80's when NCSA started up), the co-founder of Netscape.

[ the founder of the NCSA/National Ctr for Supercomputing Applications was Dr. Larry Smarr, a computational Astrophysicist. He needed supercomputers for his work (galaxy simulations). BTW, he visited the AARG/Advanced Automation Research Group, where Martin & I worked, to check out our state-of-the-art GE CCD cameras (connected to the High Speed Image Buffer (designed by Rod Fletcher), the card which was wire-wrapped by Martin). Dr. Smarr became a Tech icon, & moved on to UC San Diego/CALIT2 (Calit2 : California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology (http://www.calit2.net)). CALIT2 is involved with Communications Technology, with some activity in Automotive. Their Industrial Partners include Ford, Mitsubishi, Toyota, Nissan. Hmm. Hint Hint, "future EVs will require Smart Communications Tech". I can be the go-between to put Martin in touch with Dr. Smarr/CALIT2. Remember, Media/Communications was Martin's specialty (Nuvomedia) before he co-founded Tesla Motors. Larry Smarr's son Joseph is a Stanford M.S. Computer Science grad, & also went to the same high-school I did. Dr. Andrew Chien

(the mischievious one, now Intel Director of Research & VP of Corporate Technology, who squired Martin w/water while Martin was wire-wrapping a PC board)

also went to this University High School, which produced 3 Nobel Laureates: Physics '77, Economics '82, Medicine 'xx) ]


He just started his own VC firm Boutique this year, initiallly capitalized at 300 million.

Marc Andreessen Forms Boutique Venture Capital Firm | Epicenter | Wired.com (http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2009/07/marc-andreessen-forms-boutique-venture-capital-firm/)


Marc Andreessen and business partner Ben Horowitz launched a boutique VC fund Monday with an initial capitalization of $300 million that the pair intends to invest in “anything that involves chips and computers” at a clip of $50,000 to $50 million per startup.

The firm, Andreessen / Horowitz, makes a business of what has been a consuming private enterprise of the two, who have made angel investments all over Silicon Alley. While the money they have at their disposal now is considerably more than they had as lone private investors their approach will remain essentially the same, Andreessen and Horowitz told Wired at a recent briefing. That is to say, they they won’t invest in anything they don’t understand, period. This includes a lot of “cool stuff,” the eternally-boyish Andreessen explains, like clean and nano technology.

If you get to make a pitch a decision won’t be long in coming because it’s only the two partners deciding. But don’t bother to cold e-mail them with your Google-killing idea. You need an invitation to this party — a referral from somebody you both know and that they respect

Marc & I had the same undergrad boss, Ginny Metze..the wife of Dr. Gernot Metze (specialty is FTC/Fault Tolerant Computing), a UIUC Electrical Eng professor. He was also at the Interdisciplinary outfit CSL/Coordinated Science Laboratory (where Martin & I were officemates), mostly Electrical Engineers, some Computer Scientists, some Physicists. The Director was Dr. Robert Chien (also an Electrical Eng prof, Martin's supervisor), whose son Andrew is now Intel Director of Research & Vice-President of Corporate Technology.

Back to Ginny Metze, she was working in the CFD/Computational Fluid Dynamics group at CSL/Coordinated Science Laboratory (3rd floor, Martin/Steve/me were on the 2nd floor), where my father was part of that group in the 60's. It was led by Dr. Bruce Hicks

[ Caltech PhD, Linus Pauling's PhD student..the 2-time Nobelist in Chemistry & Peace. LP was a GIANT in Physics

"anything he wanted to do..HE COULD DO IT"
-- James Watson, Nobelist (discovered "double helix" with Frances Crick)

another example of a Caltech alumni coming into UIUC ]

Ginny moved on the Materials Research Laboratory (next to the Physics Bldg, aka Loomis Laboratory of Physics, where Martin gave his Sept/2008 talk "Doing something Worthwhile"). Her office was just down the hall from the legendary Dr. Stephen Wolfram, the Caltech GENIUS PhD (he got it at a few weeks into age 20, almost got it as a teen-ager). My Dad (because of his extensive Caltech contact, especially Dr. Hicks his mentor), was on the search committee that lured S. Wolfram from Princeton IAS/Institute for Advanced Study

( where he ended up, after he left Caltech on bad terms..Caltech was trying to mooch off his entrepeneurial activity @Caltech, the pre-cursor to his Mathematica work ).

S. Wolfram ran into the same problem @UIUC, like he did @Caltech, the Corporate Mono-Culture of Academia couldn't contain "his immense mind".

[ this is reminiscent of how the mono-culture at Tesla Motors..led by you-know-who..couldn't contain the "immense mind" of Martin Eberhard or Wally Rippel..Caltech genius who learned from the legendary Dr. Richard Feynman/Caltech Physics/Nobelist, see Tesla Motors blog post "Richard Feynman, a Curious Character". Both Martin & Wally were part of that Stealth Bloodbath, as was Judy Estrin..she resigned from the Tesla Board shortly thereafter ]

S. Wolfram went on to found Wolfram Research (a co-founder Theodore Gray is an alumni of my High School, University High School on UIUC campus, just 1 block away from CSL/Coordinated Science Laboratory, where Martin/Steve Cross/I worked at), the rest as they say is history.

Lesson Learned:

"Life is 20% What happens to you, 80% HOW YOU RESPOND TO IT"
-- a wise man once said

"When 1 door closes [ leaving Tesla ], another one opens [ a new startup ]"
-- Spanish Proverb

Look at what happened to S. Wolfram, he got punked out of 2 top notch universities (mono-culture that it is, the Ivory Towers are not cracked up what they are supposed to be), but created a VERY successful entrepeneurial career. Similarly, Martin E. seems to be in the same position: his next startup should be INTERESTING. Some of the "seeds I've planted above" may interest him. I mentioned some of them to him at LA Auto Show (last Wednesday), but I missed an opportunity to have dinner with him on Wed for further disucssions. Drat! I had all my presentation materials in my backpack, with laptop. Martin talks fast, walks fast, he was REALLY HARD to keep up with!! I last saw him at the Audi booth for their media-presentation, didn't see him after that.

Sorry about getting off-track, but there are some opportunities coming my way (offered 2 partnerships in EV startups, given some of my above contacts).

Bottomline:
I think I might be a go-between, to hook up Marc Andreesen's Boutique, with Martin E. Or, I might run with it myself (with others).


Lesson Learned:

Networking is the Key. Business (& Research) is about making Connections, see the relationships, & securing Deals. I am REALLY GOOD AT THIS, since I'm a researcher TRAINED to "go crazy" & follow multiple threads SIMULTANEOUSLY. That's why my TMC posts look so..WEIRD. You're actually seeing my nested hierarchical neuronal activity in action.

"Multi-tasking MANIAC"
-- me

"We have a meeting in the morning. THen, the rest of the day, WE MULTIPLEX LIKE MAD"
-- Dr. Scott T. ('93 PhD UIUC, Vice President & Director of Research of XXX, 700 million dollar US Govt contractor)

"we're juggling many things at once at Tesla Motors"
-- M. Eberhard
[ not the exact quote, but you get the idea ]

Q&A with Linus Pauling (Caltech Giant in Chemistry, Nobelist):

Q: How do you come up with such good Ideas?
A: I try a LOT of Ideas ("shotgun approach")


Elon Musk could be the most OUTRAGEOUS "Multitasking Maniac" or "Multiplex like Mad" on Planet Earth. Who on earth, would try SpaceX (out of this world) & Tesla Motors (earthly), SIMULTANEOUSLY?? If he succeeds, he will become very famous. I think Martin needs to take a smarter more level-headed approach:

"The SMARTEST racer will win the Baja 500 [ race ]"
-- Ricky Johnson, '07 Baja 500, legendary Motocross champion

"Cooler heads will prevail"

"You're not thinking, you're REACTING"


That way, between Elon (outrageously wild) & Martin (controlled wildness), someone will succeed & lead the way for EV.

I know other researchers, who are even WORSE THAN ME!! Like a friend of mine, this former Harvard Physics junior faculty member (String Theory), a really wild character.

"The amazing thing about Nature, is how EVERYTHING is INTER-CONNECTED"
-- Dr. David Suzuki, Biologist ("Carl Sagan of Biology")

Look at the above (& previous post), you see "threads eminating out of UIUC". This "common ancestry" leads to relationships ("trust"), that is the backbone of successful startups/businesses. Obviously, other top-notch universities have the same Dynamic: Stanford (Doug's current one, he was Cornell undergrad..another heavy hitter in Academia), MIT (huge reputation), Harvard, Columbia, Princeton, Georgia-Tech, et al. All the Tier 1 universities (Big 10, Pac 10, etc)

TMC is pretty good, in that it is a Meta-Web type of thing for Tesla Motors. Doug & TEG (& others) are like "bees", digging for information via Google search (0th order information). They post it, analyze it...that's 1st, 2nd, 3rd order level of information processing. So, I'm contributing my Information (the UIUC connection, having been with Martin in grad-school).

Somewhere in the above "mess", is "jewels in the test-tube" for several startups in EV. Key players: Caltech & JPL, Georgia-Tech & GTRI, U. of Illinois, Stanford, MIT, UC San Diego/CALIT2. There is ONE GUY (my secret weapon), who I'm not going public with. He could be the most DANGEROUS weapon of them all (famous inventor & enrepeneur)..he's another PhD in AI/Artificial Intelligence

[ again!! the AI guys like Robotics..the topic of Martin's Masters Thesis, which naturally give them an affinity to Automotive ]

with a strong interest in Automotive. Hint: he's been on TED (where Martin has attended, where Bill Gross/Idealab..another Caltech alumni has given a talk)

Another lesson. Study hard, work hard. It takes you to high places, with other industrious people. Look at the above. Max Planck (Nobelist in Physics), R. Feynman (via Wally Rippel, Nobelist in Physics), Stephen Wolfram (genius, triple appt in Math/Physics/Computer Science, & successful entrepeneur), Martin Eberhard (serial entrepeneur, icon in EV), Marc Andreesen (serial entrepeneur, has his own VC firm).

I think Doug (Stanford Physics PhD candidate) is another "dangerous" guy, currently a lurker/observer, about to jump into the EV fray. I'm really WELL CONNECTED in Physics & HEP/High Energy Physics, it's close to my heart. Caltech calls its Engineering divisioin "Engineering & Applied Sciences". Physics is the "King of the Sciences", so I;m sure the key to Alternative Energy with be R&D. I think Physicists will be key. Just look at the 2 top dogs @Dept of Energy:

1) Dr. Stephen Chu
Stanford Physicists, Nobelist

2) Dr Stephen Koonin
MIT PhD, Caltech undergrad, Caltech Physics Prof & Provost, former Chief Scientist @BP/British Petroleum. He & Vice-Provost Dr. David Goodstein

[ who wrote the alarmist book "Out of Gas".

hired by R. Feynman, who is continuing with RPF's Educational Initiative "Feynman's Lectures on Physics", with Project Mathematics!. Done in conjunction with the legendary Dr. James Blinn, a renowned Computer Graphics researcher. I was in this Computer Graphics group, when Dr. Goodstein came to Dr. Blinn's office for this Production. He is in the same field as Dr. Ed Catmull, Loren Carpenter..the latter who is a Tesla Roadster owner ]

Both Goodstein & Koonin are on the warpath to push Alternative Energy. This is what Caltech is famous for: Agile/Mobile/Hostile:

"The Caltech people are REALLY SMART. THey get into arguments, but in the End..THEY DO THE RIGHT THING"
-- Dr. Fred S., PhD Geophysics/Stanford, my high-school classmate (dad was Theoretical Particle Physicist)

I think we're seeing it with Dr. Koonin (in conjunction with Dr. Chu), in their ATVM initiative at DoE. "Fueling" (no pun intended) Tesla Motors with 450 million, Fisker with 180 million, etc. We already have seen Wally Rippel & Alan Cocconi do their magic, at the Engineering level for EV.

I have some meetings schedule with Caltech's President (given that he's former colleagues with my former office-mate in grad school Steve Cross of Georgia-Tech), Provost & Vice-Provost. Martin's 2nd home is in Sierra Madre (just down the road from Caltech). There apparently is some "convergence" at Caltech (Mechanical Eng & Electrical Eng Dept, also the Nonlinear Dynamics & Control & Physics Dept). I'm working this "angle". Already, the NASA/JPL MSL/Mars Science Laboratory thing has "born fruit", so that's really promising. Which should trigger other "fruit".

I could use some perspective/advice from TMC "super geniuses", who are future EV clients. In the end, it's "all about the (EV) customer". The product has to be designed with the Consumer in mind, & Customer Service is the name-of-the-game:

"You [ consumer/client ] are the King, We [ engineers, businessmen ] are your Fools"
"I want to be Attentive to Your Needs, How may I give you Excellent Service"

[dpeilow]

2) Dr Stephen Koonin
MIT PhD, Caltech undergrad, Caltech Physics Prof & Provost, former Chief Scientist @BP/British Petroleum. He & Vice-Provost Dr. David Goodstein


Both Goodstein & Koonin are on the warpath to push Alternative Energy. This is what Caltech is famous for: Agile/Mobile/Hostile:

"The Caltech people are REALLY SMART. THey get into arguments, but in the End..THEY DO THE RIGHT THING"

I think we're seeing it with Dr. Koonin (in conjunction with Dr. Chu), in their ATVM initiative at DoE. "Fueling" (no pun intended) Tesla Motors with 450 million, Fisker with 180 million, etc. We already have seen Wally Rippel & Alan Cocconi do their magic, at the Engineering level for EV.



Koonin of "it's premature to deploy PV" fame?

Hmm.

[chimpanzee]

BTW, the iTunes video-podcast for my "2009 LA Auto Show" got approved:

http://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewPodcast?id=345320182

Click on it, it will take you to iTunes Store, to subscribe to it. Hit Subscribe, connect your iPod, Sync, & you will have the videos on your iPod (incl the one of M. Eberhard with Bob Lutz/GM Vice-Chairman). Walk around with it, to "spread the word"..Alternative Energy is coming.

THere is STILL a Public Perception problem, this Alternative Energy is a bit of a tough learning curve. I know, because even *I* am a bit of a newbie (busy on my other projects, I only read TMC ocassionally). This is my role on TMC, via my Jumplive.com "Multimedia Technology Demonstration", to "unleash the beast":

iTunes video-podcast, as a Viral Marketing medium

See also:

http://tesla-roadster.blogspot.com

It was designed to make sure History "get's it right" (M. Eberhard & M. Tarpening are the REAL co-founders of Tesla). Subscribe to it on iTunes, so you can show these videos over your iPhone/iTouch/iPod (mobile media solutions, "PR in your Pocket").

[chimpanzee]

Search for Common Ground

Being there, you can sense the Enthusiasm, Happines, Passion, Obsession of LA Auto Show attendees. It spans race, gender, age,..whatever.

I got a call yesterdays (just before I left), from a Caltech research professor. Very smart guy, Italian German, PhD in Nuclear Physics & Digital Life specialist. Turns out he is into cars (drives a 3rd generation Mercedes), installed a solar array in his Pasadena home (just like M. Eberhard did), very knowledgable about Tesla Motors, knows about Toyota Prius (major presence on Caltech campus, which produced Wally Rippel & A. Cocconi), runs 26 miles marathons, is an avid book reader (like M. Eberhard). Obviously, this guy is a candidate for my project (NASA/JPL MSL/Mars Science Laboratory, 2011 mission to Mars, doing cross-over PR/Marketing with Automotive).

Also met a super-genius girl @Audi booth, she excelled in Academics. She & I engaged in a deep discussion about Audi (vs BMW, Mercedes), Education in America, how to run a successful business.

"Slow & steady wins the race"

She was talking about how Audi was NOT affected by the Credit Crisis last year, & in fact increased sales! She told how Audi slowly steadily makes progress, while BMW got into trouble with 0% APR loans (not taking care of profit margins). Thus, the credit crisis left BMW with a 1 billion dollar hit. Mercedes, she said, lost QC when they outsourced Mfg'ing (when I told her my friend traded in his Mercedes..constantly in the shop for repairs.., for an Audi).

The above should be a signal to new startups (Tesla & Fisker), to use a "discretion is the better part of valor". Think "long term", instead of a "glory hit". I understand Tesla wants to go public soon, where Elon Musk wants to do a quick "cash turnover". I would recommend to him to execute M. Eberhard's dream, & focus on Product Development

[dpeilow]

She told how Audi slowly steadily makes progress, while BMW got into trouble with 0% APR loans (not taking care of profit margins). Thus, the credit crisis left BMW with a 1 billion dollar hit. Mercedes, she said, lost QC when they outsourced Mfg'ing (when I told her my friend traded in his Mercedes..constantly in the shop for repairs.., for an Audi).

Whereas Audi (in fact VAG as a whole) suffered the same problems with outsourcing and QC in the late 90s. I should know - I had one from that era with all sorts of issues. JD Power surveys from that time really marked the Golf down for reliability. They were trading on a reputation which was no longer justified, but happily they seem to have got on top of the situation.

Maybe the lesson is to get the difficult stuff over and done with quickly?

[chimpanzee]

What does an electric vehicle look like?

The News-Gazette.com: Tesla's all-electric car stops in C-U en route to Detroit (http://www.news-gazette.com/news/local/2010/01/06/teslas_all-electric_car_stops_in_c-u_en_route_to_detroit)

http://cdn.news-gazette.com/photos/story/news/20100105-232010-pic-115439483.jpg

"Tesla employee Ben Kanner parks the Tesla Roadster Sport in the courtyard at Everitt Lab on Tuesday in Urbana. By Darrell Hoemann"

Everitt Lab is Electrical Engineering Bldg, where Martin & I were EE grads. Behind & to the right of the camera is EE Bldg, 2nd floor is ADSL (Advanced Digital Systems Lab), where Martin did his M.S. thesis with Dr. Ricardo Uribe/ADSL (also my M.S. Thesis advisor).

from http://www.ece.illinois.edu/mediacenter/resonance/pdf/FALL-2007.pdf


Martin Eberhard, who
said he received his most
expensive speeding ticket
while at Illinois driving
an old Mustang to Philo,
served as a teaching
assistant in the Advanced
Digital Systems Lab
(ADSL).
When he wasn’t breaking the law, Eberhard
spent time working on his master’s thesis
project: a robot that was essentially a giant
piece of aluminum with a wheel on each corner
that was independently steered.
“Movement was coordinated by a network
of 8,051 microprocessors

[ bad technical editing by Resonance, they are referring to Intel 8051 processor!! ]

This thing was
designed so you could translate while you’re
driving or spin in a straight line while you were
moving,” Eberhard recalled. “The amount of
freedom of movement that was possible was
absolutely unbelievable. It was this big giant
ungainly thing, and when you turned it on, it
was a ballerina.”
Eberhard, whose focus was in control systems,
was influenced by Professor Ricardo Uribe,
who oversaw ADSL at the time and was
one of his advisors. He called Professor Ed
Davidson’s [ who ended up moving to U. of Michigan/Electrical Eng Dept as Dept Head ] classes a delight (Davidson was his
other advisor).

Ok, here's the deal. This UIUC stop-over right in front of EE Bldg, is obviously a "slight" at M. Eberhard. You will recall the recent scandal about EM's dubious academic credentials a U. of Penn

[ BTW, many Penn Physics alumni end up at Caltech & a recent Caltech Nobelist in Physics is a U. of Penn alumni ]

& Stanford. I was going to get in touch with some UIUC people, get the best pranksters, & plaster the Roadster with "Martin Eberhard, co-founder of Tesla Motors" stickers. The ADSL people certainly would have obliged!! (probably going beyond just a sticker, probably some SERIOUS electronic hacking to disrupt the Roadster operation)

[ note that Caltech & MIT have an ongoing "pranking" feud. You will recall the '84 Rose Bowl, where UIUC played UCLA & got hammered 45 to 19. Late in the game, a Caltech prankster initiated the infamous "Caltech 45, MIT 19". They had previously broke into the building housing the electronics, & figured out how to replace UCLA with Caltech, Illinois with MIT by radio control ]

Why not a stopover @U. of Michigan EE Dept? (near the Big 3 Auto Mrs in Detroit) I have been in touch with Dr. Ed Davidson (emeritus @UM, see above) recently, & I'm sure a co-conspiracy of pranksters @UM could have "planned something" for the Roadster.

Purdue University ("Boilermakers", in reference to trains.."Transportation") should also have been a stopover. Martin's supervisor Dr. Robert Chien (when Martin & I were office-mates) recruited Dr. Tom H. (who ended up being my PhD advisor) from Purdue. Robert's son Andrew was an '81 summer intern (from his undergrad MIT studies) with Martin at Coordinated Science Laboratory/AARG (Advanced Automation Research Group). Andrew is now Intel Director of Research & VP of Corporate Technology, formerly Computer Science professor at UIUC & UC San Diego.

Just some background info for the UIUC EE stopover by the Roadster..

I live 2 blocks from Caltech, so I will mention this "slight" towards M. Eberhard. You will recall that Martin saved Alan Cocconi's (famous Caltech alumni, along with Wally Rippel, both of whom worked on the GM prototype Impact @Aerovironment) company ACP from bankruptcy, & ACP's PEM was licensed for the Roadster. I'm sure the Caltech pranksters will get "fired up" & decide on some sort of response. Wally Rippel was victimized in the "Stealth Bloodbath" back in late 2007, so there's double-the-reason for some payback.

"We Protect our Own"

[vfx]

http://cdn.news-gazette.com/photos/story/news/20100105-232010-pic-115439483.jpg

"Tesla employee Ben Kanner parks the Tesla Roadster Sport in the courtyard at Everitt Lab on Tuesday in Urbana. By Darrell Hoemann"

Everitt Lab is Electrical Engineering Bldg, where Martin & I were EE grads. Behind & to the right of the camera is EE Bldg, 2nd floor is ADSL (Advanced Digital Systems Lab), where Martin did his M.S. thesis with Dr. Ricardo Uribe/ADSL (also my M.S. Thesis advisor).

from http://www.ece.illinois.edu/mediacenter/resonance/pdf/FALL-2007.pdf



Ok, here's the deal. This UIUC stop-over right in front of EE Bldg, is obviously a "slight" at M. Eberhard. You will recall the recent scandal about EM's dubious academic credentials a U. of Penn

[ BTW, many Penn Physics alumni end up at Caltech & a recent Caltech Nobelist in Physics is a U. of Penn alumni ]

& Stanford. I was going to get in touch with some UIUC people, get the best pranksters, & plaster the Roadster with "Martin Eberhard, co-founder of Tesla Motors" stickers. The ADSL people certainly would have obliged!! (probably going beyond just a sticker, probably some SERIOUS electronic hacking to disrupt the Roadster operation)

[ note that Caltech & MIT have an ongoing "pranking" feud. You will recall the '84 Rose Bowl, where UIUC played UCLA & got hammered 45 to 19. Late in the game, a Caltech prankster initiated the infamous "Caltech 45, MIT 19". They had previously broke into the building housing the electronics, & figured out how to replace UCLA with Caltech, Illinois with MIT by radio control ]

Why not a stopover @U. of Michigan EE Dept? (near the Big 3 Auto Mrs in Detroit) I have been in touch with Dr. Ed Davidson (emeritus @UM, see above) recently, & I'm sure a co-conspiracy of pranksters @UM could have "planned something" for the Roadster.

Purdue University ("Boilermakers", in reference to trains.."Transportation") should also have been a stopover. Martin's supervisor Dr. Robert Chien (when Martin & I were office-mates) recruited Dr. Tom H. (who ended up being my PhD advisor) from Purdue. Robert's son Andrew was an '81 summer intern (from his undergrad MIT studies) with Martin at Coordinated Science Laboratory/AARG (Advanced Automation Research Group). Andrew is now Intel Director of Research & VP of Corporate Technology, formerly Computer Science professor at UIUC & UC San Diego.

Just some background info for the UIUC EE stopover by the Roadster..

I live 2 blocks from Caltech, so I will mention this "slight" towards M. Eberhard. You will recall that Martin saved Alan Cocconi's (famous Caltech alumni, along with Wally Rippel, both of whom worked on the GM prototype Impact @Aerovironment) company ACP from bankruptcy, & ACP's PEM was licensed for the Roadster. I'm sure the Caltech pranksters will get "fired up" & decide on some sort of response. Wally Rippel was victimized in the "Stealth Bloodbath" back in late 2007, so there's double-the-reason for some payback.

"We Protect our Own"


Shhhh!

It's a secret!

[dpeilow]

I was going to get in touch with some UIUC people, get the best pranksters, & plaster the Roadster with "Martin Eberhard, co-founder of Tesla Motors" stickers. The ADSL people certainly would have obliged!! (probably going beyond just a sticker, probably some SERIOUS electronic hacking to disrupt the Roadster operation)



So you'd see the car fail in front of the World's motoring press just to spite an individual? And where would that leave the EV movement? Yet alone yourself with the criminal nature of what you are suggesting.

Occasionally you post the odd good write up, but I have to say most of your contributions don't put you in a good light - no matter how aggrieved you may feel for your 20 years previous acquaintance.

[chimpanzee]

Tesla Tests Out the Roadster - WSJ.com (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704586504574654464060576956.html?mod=WSJ_PersonalFinance_LSAutos )


Tesla Tests Out the Roadster - WSJ.com (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704586504574654464060576956.html?mod=WSJ_PersonalFinance_LSAutos )


What does an electric vehicle look like?

The News-Gazette.com: Tesla's all-electric car stops in C-U en route to Detroit (http://www.news-gazette.com/news/local/2010/01/06/teslas_all-electric_car_stops_in_c-u_en_route_to_detroit)

I mean, what is the point of posting the above links on a Forum/BBS? It only addresses the "endemic" crowd of Tesla Motors enthusiasts. It's like Auto Racing, where you have to reach the masses, & get the "non-endemic" demographic. Just like NASCAR has done, to pull off their revolution. I.e., they are the 2nd ranked watched Sports on TV (with the non-endemic Tech company Sprint as the Title Sponsor), based on ratings..leap-frogging over Baseball (the national past-time of America)

The key is these Viral Mediums like the Big 3: Twitter, Myspace, Facebook, iTunes video-podcast hardly gets mentioned, along with Youtube channel. There is the potential of quickly reaching the Masses.


I am just AMAZED at how such a high-tech car company like Tesla Motors, is NOT using the Latest/Greatest in Multimedia Technology. They are reporting the Road Trip over a text/photo blog (located on their website). They could be doing it over a video-blog

[ syndicated to iTunes as a video-podcast, which is a Viral Medium into itself like Facebook/Twitter, with its own Search Engine. I.e., people can find "Tesla Roadster", "electric car", etc in the iTunes Store search engine ]

I've been doing it with a "Tesla Roadster" video-blog (Blogger)

Tesla Roadster (http://tesla-roadster.blogspot.com)

using various mobile-devices:

1. Sony P&S camera, using video-mode which outputs a .avi file
import to portable Apple Powerbook G4/1.5Ghz, quick edit, export, upload to Blip.tv

2. Sony HC3 1-chip compact HD camcorder (mini-DV tape), 1080i
same as 1)

3. Sony FX1 (or FX100) 3-chip HD prosumer camcorder (mini-DV tape), 1080i
same as 1)

Even my solution is a bit behind the times (the Technology changes by the month, even day). People are using SD-based camcorders, like the Canon VIXIA 200:

http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4047/4249406387_15e90fd50c.jpg

http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4007/4249407801_fa0e9ff632.jpg

She is with Netbook online website, doing video interview uploads (using Tube Mogul, which distributes to various online video services like Youtube, et al) after Media Day #1 (2010 CES), using WiFi at the Media Lounge. Done deal. Then we all headed out to a bar for drinks. This is the "Alternative Model" for Media Coverage: Agile/Mobile/Hostile, versus the old-fashioned "Standard Model" (Print, TV) which is time-delayed (slow). Even, the online article (see above links, which were found by Google search, & posted on TMC forum) is outdated.

Take a look at the below post on Video-Blogging group, about the New England Car Show. It was done with a Flip (portable HD camcorder, SD card based):


The Flip minoHD saves files as MP4, the Kodak Zi8 as MOV.

Both work fine in iMovie.

I have not tried the new flip yet with the bigger screen.

I love the Zi8's mic in jack. It has a replaceable battery too.

Here's a video I shot at the New England Auto Show this weekend in 720p 60 fps, edited in iMovie.

YouTube - Sexy Cars on Turntables - Cadillac, Chevy and Ford (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgYM_1DaBmE)

It's so good.

Note: My Zi8 was a gift from Kodak.

--Steve
http://stevegarfield.com

Needless to say, the quality is AMAZING. Could be uploaded quickly using a WiFi equipped Netbook (not even a laptop!).

TMC forum should setup a video-blog (syndicated to iTunes as a "TMC Tesla Motors" video-podcast, searchable with terms like "Tesla Roadster", "Martin Eberhard", etc), which can take *contributions* from "video peeps" from all over the world. Instead of getting posts on TMC forum of online videos, articles, etc. Hey, that would be my role! I.e., I just found myself a new gig with TMC.

The following entities should be doing the above:

Tesla Motors
Chris Paine (documentary film-maker)

I actually met someone from Chris Paine's group at 2009 LA Auto Show, & he was raving about some portable HD SD-based camcorder (the Flip?). So, they are already doing it.

"If you don't play [ using the latest VoD/Video on Demand Technology ]..YOU GET LEFT BEHIND"
-- David Zaslav, NBC Universal

[ article on how Steve Jobs' Oct/2005 introduction of the video iPod, created a WILDLY SUCCESSFUL response: 2 million $1.99 ABC videos (Steve Jobs is majority shareholder of Disney Entertainment, which owns ABC/ESPN) sold to iPod users within 2 months. It triggered Industry wide VoD deals. NBC Universal & DirecTV, CBS & Comcast, et al


"CBS and NBC have announced deals to offer replays of prime-time programs for 99 cents per episode, shifting television toward a sales model that gained popularity with downloaded music. CBS is teaming up with Comcast Corp. and NBC with satellite operator DirecTV to offer the on-demand replays. Less than three years ago, Apple helped spur the explosion of legally downloaded music with its iTunes Music Store and iPod portable players - the latest versions of which now play video."

http://www.latimes.com/business/custom/cotown/la-fi-ondemand8nov08,0,2732256.story

"Both deals are the first of what are expected to be numerous similar arrangements. They mark the latest examples of how technology is altering the television experience and the traditional network business."

"For 50 years, TV has been a passive medium," said David Zaslav, president of NBC Universal's cable group, which includes networks USA and Bravo, whose programming is also part of the DirecTV deal. "But consumers want more choice and more convenience. All the signals are there of a meaningful change in how people watch television."

"If you don't play, you'll get left behind," NBC Universal's Zaslav said.

He added that NBC programming would be increasingly available on devices other than television, such as cellphones, to expand its revenue sources. NBC makes parts of "The Tonight Show With Jay Leno" available for download on mobile phones.

]

I know the President of Disney Animation (Dr. Ed Catmull, who wants a TM Model S), who is co-founder of PIXAR..owned by Steve Jobs. From his autograph signing at SIGGRAPH 2008:

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3003/2770789292_b4afd61bdd.jpg

My background (Electrical Eng like M. Eberhard), is the Driving Technology behind Special Effects in TV/Film Industry, Computer Gaming, Computer Animation.

The keyword is "Entertainment", which is how Apple Computer transformed itself from a computer company to a "Consumer Experience" company. It revolutionized the way the Music Industry distributed Music. Tesla Motors should also realize this paradigm shift: it should transform itself from a car company into a "Consumer Experience [ Entertainment ]" company. Working with Alpine for a high-end "automotive console" (streaming Internet Radio using Pandora, iPod connectivity, etc) is along this path. NOT having an iTunes video-podcast presence is a major gaff.

TMC must also realize this paradigm shift, & get with the new Content/Distribution model. They are recognizing the value of Video with the "video section" on the forum, but this is old distribution model. Need to setup a video-blog (syndicated to iTunes video-podcast), Youtube channel, etc. This is all part of the New Media, i.e. Citizen Journalism. ANYBODY can be a media-outlet.

[dpeilow]

I mean, what is the point of posting the above links on a Forum/BBS? It only addresses the "endemic" crowd of Tesla Motors enthusiasts.

Like it or not, this is a Tesla fan site. The members here are interested in endeavours like this road trip and bringing together news stories from the local press along the route into one thread is exactly what a forum like this is for.



I am just AMAZED at how such a high-tech car company like Tesla Motors, is NOT using the Latest/Greatest in Multimedia Technology. They are reporting the Road Trip over a text/photo blog (located on their website). They could be doing it over a video-blog

You may recall that the company did indeed do an awful lot of this kind of innovative promotion in the early years. That seems to have died down since Darryl Siry left.



The key is these Viral Mediums like the Big 3: Twitter, Myspace, Facebook, iTunes video-podcast hardly gets mentioned, along with Youtube channel. There is the potential of quickly reaching the Masses.

Ask yourself why they have pulled back from doing that. Maybe they do not want or need to reach the mass market. The promotion seems to be target towards more 'exclusive' events and media - the sort of places where you reach a customer base with Roadster money to spend.

I'm sure as we get closer to the Model S launch, the targeted demographic will change and you will see more far reaching promotion again. It is the GMs and Nissans of this world that need to do the viral EV marketing at the moment.



Big ramble about media technology

You've dodged my question.

[RGB]

Tesla Roadster | Facebook (http://www.facebook.com/teslamotors)

YouTube - TeslaMotors's Channel (http://www.youtube.com/user/TeslaMotors)

TeslaMotors (TeslaMotors) on Twitter (http://twitter.com/teslamotors)

[chimpanzee]

I went to the Supercar Sunday event (SCS) yesterday (Woodland Hills Mall, parking lot) & saw a bunch of supercars. Including Lotus Elise. After the event technically ended at 10am, Jay Leno rolled in with a Bugatti (special edition, worth 2 million?). I had a brief conversation with Jay, & he is "into" electric. He's tried an electric motorbike:

Supercar Sunday "test" video-blog (http://supercarsunday.blogspot.com)
supercarsunday on blip.tv (http://supercarsunday.blip.tv)

I ended up at the LA Auto Gallery dealership for Lamborghini (at the nearby Topanga Mall, north of SCS), & they were discussing "store traffic". Like NASCAR, they have to realize that it goes beyond the car..it's also the DRIVERS. I recommended to them, to get some iconic owners of Lambos into the store, for autograph-session (ala NASCAR). Fans of a driver, will automatically become fans of whatever make of car they drive (Dodge, Chevy, Ford, Toyota, etc) or Sponsor they have. It's the old "You are who you surround/associate with", cross-over PR/Marketing


"Billboard on 4-Wheels"...the Business Model (very successful for NASCAR)
"Soap Opera on 4-Wheels"..the Entertainment Model (very successful for NASCAR)

So, Tesla Motors needs to find some "iconic" drivers (with brilliant personalities), to complement their production cars. Call it an A+B package (A = car, B = drive personality). Spokespersons for the Roadster, Model S, etc. There was that 1 Chicago stockbroker who apparently is doing it on his own. The "Who Killed the Electric Car" created a bunch of "accidental" spokespersons like Chelsea Sexton, actress (who starred on Baywatch), Ed Begley/Jr.

Another way of saying it is: "Human Interest" factor.

I posed a question to a fellow Getty Images photographer:

Q: What photos sell the best?
A: Human Interest photos (i.e., ones with people in the photo)

The issue came up in Classical Music ("Art of the Piano"):

"There are many many people who strived for a career as a concert pianist [ scientist, Racer, car company, etc ]
ahh..the Ones that SUCCEED..just accept the fact that they have fabulous technique..and accept the fact, you know, they can play the instrument..*WHAT makes people SUCCEED, is how they are able to CAPTURE THE AUDIENCE*"

-- Schuyler Chapin/Impresario, "The Art of Piano"

That is why Bugatti let Jay Leno test-drive the above 2 million dollar car. His brand-name ("Jay Leno's Garage") would light-the-fire for potential buyers. Has Jay Leno been offerred a Tesla Roadster for a test-drive?

The tragedy of M. Eberhard's exit of Tesla Motors, is the Human Interest factor ME contributed to TM. There are many testimonials of TM fans, who were attracted by ME's HI factor in presenting TM to the public.

[dpeilow]

That is why Bugatti let Jay Leno test-drive the above 2 million dollar car. His brand-name ("Jay Leno's Garage") would light-the-fire for potential buyers. Has Jay Leno been offerred a Tesla Roadster for a test-drive?


Jay Leno test drives a Tesla Roadster (http://www.noob.us/entertainment/jay-leno-test-drives-a-tesla-roadster/)



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1zCXVr1NzQ

[TEG]

And don't forget all the visibility Robert Llewellyn has provided...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxHgXEiaYxM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Erb6qQFHCVM

[vfx]

Don't forget the contirbutions of Martin Eberhard.
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdhwvGPGKvo)

;)

[vfx]

pLo0Ji9pOMQ


NNrRepLBFvE

[chimpanzee]

Leno is used to getting his cars free. That's why he never bought a roadster. Since they were only going to make a couple thousand of them, Elon and the board made the decision to not give any away for promotion purposes. They only time they broke the rule to my knowledge was the one they gave Toyoda. Given the Japanese culture, it was more of a purchase than a gift.

Jay Leno & Bugatti [ '10 Jan/17

M (http://supercarsunday.blogspot.com/2010/01/jay-leno-bugatti-10-jan17.html)y interview with Jay, when he came in a Bugatti (~1 million). This should tell you he gets cars for "free" (mfrs want to use Jay as an extension of their Marketing Dept).

I just saw a show about female Moms with Twitter/FB based businesses (drawing huge traffic #'s), incl Soleil Moon Frye (of "Punky Brewster" fame). Mfrs send them boatloads of their products for "free", so these Moms can make plugs (product exposure) on Twitter/FB. Welcome to SN based commercials.

If you have celebrity status (movie star) or Internet status (Twitter/FB "star"), you get the "goodies".

"You work hard, you get the goodies"
-- Steve McQueen, car enthusiast & racer

picture of Steve & his wife, fancy home in background, w/stable of sportscars

[chimpanzee]

Props to our own Tom Saxton for valiantly pleading on public radio's Marketplace (http://www.marketplace.org/topics/sustainability/electric-cars-catch-fire-sales-not-so-much) for placing the Volt story into proportion:

I fly R/C electric airplanes (along with Alan Cocconi) at the Rose Bowl park. The (late) Dr Paul MacReady (Aerovironment founder, famous Caltech Aeronautics PhD) also does. AV was where Alan & Wally Rippel did their pioneering work on GM EV1 prototype.

It is a WELL KNOWN fact that Li Polymer batteries are VERY DANGEROUS, when not handled properly: charging (in cars or home) or crashes (batteries get "messed up", can ignite at later date). There are some horrific pictures of cars & homes BURNING DOWN completely, because of unattended "bad" charging. They literally turn into "fiery roman candles", & the surrounding area flat out goes up in flames!!

Just goto RCgroups.com, click on Forums, batteries section. There is a Sticky with hundreds of responses, this fire issues is hotly debated (just like here). FACT: many people charge their LiPo batteries OUTSIDE (not indoors) in a PROTECTIVE METAL enclosure (like military surplus ammo box). THIS is why I haven't gone to LiPo (still staying with NiCad, NiMH), it's not worth the risk, plus they're kinda expensive.

I was just at 2011 LA Auto Show, & CODA had a booth for their 39K pricepoint EV.

Sun Nov 27 [ '11 LA Auto Show ] - a set on Flickr (http://www.flickr.com/photos/chimpanzee/sets/72157628189469245/with/6418289581/)

[ nice booth, nice display, met an interesting couple there, husband owns engineering company ]

IMG_8486 | Flickr - Photo Sharing!
(http://www.flickr.com/photos/chimpanzee/6418291469/in/set-72157628189469245)http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7164/6418291469_0488e9cfaa_b.jpg

LiFe Phosphate battery, mounted on floor (like Model S configuration). Having a fire underneath you is NOT a good thing, especially since this config hasn't been tested in real-world. I expect "high centering" (along with frame twisting) to create some fires in the future. Possibly some injuries & fatalities.

FACT: car fires WILL happen. But, the sensational nature of just a few, could have a devastating PR/Marketing effect. Gas cars have this problem (rear-end collisions, Pinto & Ford xxx..the one with a bolt on rear-end housing that sparks when it hits gas tank) too.

I think the newer technology Li-xx batteries DO have an issue with higher fire risk. Me, I'll wait until the "real world testing" irons out the bugs

[JRP3]

Don't contribute to the FUD. LiPoly batteries for RC toys are not at all the same as the chemistry used in any production EV. Just because a battery has lithium as a component does not mean it's the same as other batteries that also contain lithium. LiFePO4 is one of the least reactive of lithium chemistries. I'm much more comfortable sitting over any EV battery chemistry than a tank of gas.

[chimpanzee]

Don't contribute to the FUD. LiPoly batteries for RC toys are not at all the same as the chemistry used in any production EV. Just because a battery has lithium as a component does not mean it's the same as other batteries that also contain lithium. LiFePO4 is one of the least reactive of lithium chemistries. I'm much more comfortable sitting over any EV battery chemistry than a tank of gas.

CAREFUL Lipo Fires Are Real!!!!

Lipo Fires Are Real!!!! - Page 20 - RC Groups (http://www.rcgroups.com/forums/showthread.php?t=719116&page=20)
[ look at the videos & pics in this thread, SCARY! ]

These are NOT toys, R/C electrics have penetrated US Govt DoD applications (many Aerovironment employees fly them for recreation & work, see Matt Keenon TV appearances for micro R/C aircraft for military surveillance). Do you fly R/C electric? Doesn't sound like you do, if you call them toys. THEY AIN'T TOYS! Real-time video from on-board camera (all accessible to consumers), I've dabbled a bit in this area. Autonomous flying aircraft, with onboard GPS (they can fly a pre-programmed GPS path)

FACT: there is NO data on Durability/Reliability testing for long periods. That is done by the first consumers ("guinea pigs" aka unfortunate souls who have the privelege of being beta-testers or "kentucky fried chicken")

I was watching the Detroit Auto Show 2010, marketing slough by Tesla Motors. WOW, the fluff/hyperbolae I heard from Dir of Engineering (?) was unreal. When the Model S will get high-centered (or other long term stress load), the chassis will transfer the mechanical stress-load to the battery-pack. FACT: they will endure only SO MUCH, before they will crack or split. There is simply no DATA for long-term stress loads (chassis -> battery pack).

"Know yourself [ driving ability ], know your opponent [ driving environment, car limitations, etc ], you will never be defeated, in a 100 battles"
-- Sun Tzu "Art of War"

It's a WELL KNOWN fact that ANY car (race car) can be driven beyond its limits & BREAK IT. The smart racers know the cars limit, & drive to that boundary. Alain Prost was probably the most famous example, they called him the "Professor".

"Racing is a THINKING MAN's GAME"
-- Wally Dallenbach

Alain P would drive a conservative race, saving the tires, so late in the race he would have an edge over the competition, & go for the win. Rick Mears (Offroad Racing origins, a great testbed for understanding car + desert/environment), 4 time Indy 500 winner, was also a student of this approach. He would "hang around" within striking distance of the leaders, then make a late move for the win. A conservative approach.

"I drive slow enough to WIN"
-- Rob MacCachren, Offroad Racing legend

Another Desert Offroad Racer, who understand the limitation of car (equipment) & environment (extreme duty environment, Desert).

I guarantee you that the 1st Model S drivers will be "pushing the limits" & getting into problems. Look at how the multi-speed gearboxes FAILED under Durability/Reliability testing @Tesla Motors

[ the 1st time I saw Martin Eberhard in 25 odd yrs, was on the NBC test drive..everything OK, tranny blew up, had to pull over with NBC reporter riding shotgun. Little did we all know, THAT was the beginning of the end for Martin's tenure @Tesla. Elon Musk (apparently NO legitimate Physics degree, much less Engineering) kept "pushing the limits" to insanity, asking WAY TOO MUCH from engineers. Man, you CANNOT do "off the shelf" R&D, especially with a new unproven formula: multi speed gear box mated to electric motor. instantaenous torque curve putting HUGE stress loads on tranny internals: breakage inevitable. I actually know an Offroad Racing team which was an Xtrac development Partner & they had the SAME BREAKAGE problem. It took SEVERAL MONTHS of empiricism (returning broken tranny, seeing what broke, beefing up that part, repeat) before they FIXED IT. They went on to win their first race EVER, followed by podium finishes (& wins) in later races that year ]

I guarantee you problems surfacing about chassis flex, battery pack damage, some fires. It's all UNPROVEN in long range use: time & mileage. Unless, they're REALLY LUCKY, with some exceptional robust engineering (doubtful). I think they are cutting weight (thus losing robustness in mechanical integrity/rigidity).

I have a PhD in Electrical Eng (Martin was in same group as me, he has Masters), & I've seen it all & done my own share of Engineering. SH*T HAPPENS. You can never predict the future, in terms of worst-case scenarios. That's why

"Real World Knowledge" (field tests) ALWAYS TRUMPS "Book Knowledge" (computer simulations, modeling, etc)

I hope Tesla Motors IS aware of the fire danger of Li-XXX batteries & addresses it with robust engineering of battery packs & chassis. Otherwise, the multi-speed gearbox failure will pale in comparison to "luxury Model S, masquerading as a firebomb"

"in order to Push the Limits, sometimes you have to EXCEED THE LIMITS"
-- Formula 1, Australian GP (2003?)

ALL the major Auto mfrs have extensive Racing Programs, from their very beginning of their formation. Honda, Audi, Volkswagen, Porsche, Toyota, etc. Where is Tesla Motors racing program? Some afterthought thing, not a detailed Development Partner (like Xtrac did). You can do in 1 race, what would take 100K miles in simulated long term real world simulation (Durability/Reliability phase). Lotus & Chevrolet are coming as new engine suppliers to Indycar, & they signed certain teams as "partners" (factory teams that have a strong bi-modal communication). E.g., HVM Racing for Lotus Motorsports, it was just announced this last 2011 LA Auto Show. A new Dallara chassis is coming next year, extensive testing is happening RIGHT NOW. Penske Racing is at Fontana/CA right now, putting it thru its paces (Chevrolet engine + Dallara chassis) Here is what happens at that track, when something goes wrong:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3tl-6oqN0i4

Greg was set to move on to Penske Racing in 2000, before he was tragically killed in last race for 1999.

I guarantee you someone in a Model S is gonna get hurt! (or worse). I'm not being a pessimist, just being realistic.

[chimpanzee]

...another link from RCGroups.com "battery section"

Complete Guide to LiPo Batteries and Failure reports - Part II - RC Groups

Complete Guide to LiPo Batteries and Failure Reports - Part II - RC Groups (http://www.rcgroups.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1287041)

I expect to see such a forum & discussion for Model S owners. Is there even such a thing for Roadster owners? There must be, & Tesla should be nurturing it, since this is all VALUABLE info. Real world Durability/Reliability data.

[drees]

Hey chimp - you do realize that lipo batteries without battery management are a lot different than the LiMn used in the Volt with regards to safety and stability? Your posts are FUD.

[vfx]

Tesla has 15 million miles of data on the Roadster. The battery is in a steel case that has been approved for international shipping (the first) and each cell is packed so any one cell's thermal runaway cannot propagate to the next. Half of Tesla's patents are for the battery packaging. In the Roadster, the battery case is sealed and not accessible to owners without voiding warranty.

The case also has active heating and cooling something that cannot be done in the smaller form factor of a scaled vehicle. Mercedes, Toyota and FedEx are all buying Tesla's powertrain for inclusion into their vehicles. Yes there will be fires but with 15M miles have you seen one yet?

[ckessel]

Elon Musk (apparently NO legitimate Physics degree, much less Engineering)
I hate to say it of someone registered on the forum for 4 years, but with things as demonstrably inaccurate as this, I have to wonder what the agenda is.

From Wikipedia about Elon: From the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, he received an undergraduate degree, and stayed on another year to finish a second bachelor's degree in physics.

Wharton's not some fly by night school. It's been around for 130 years and is apparently part of UPenn which is also well known.

[chimpanzee]

I hate to say it of someone registered on the forum for 4 years, but with things as demonstrably inaccurate as this, I have to wonder what the agenda is.

From Wikipedia about Elon: From the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, he received an undergraduate degree, and stayed on another year to finish a second bachelor's degree in physics.

Wharton's not some fly by night school. It's been around for 130 years and is apparently part of UPenn which is also well known.

Martin Eberhard filed a lawsuit claiming Elon Musk NEVER got a Physics degree from U of Penn. The ONLY documentation was some posterboard with that claim. I personally called U of Penn/Physics prof (who was critical of Elon Musk as being "diluted", i.e. trying to do too much)..NEVER CALLED BACK! Kinda suspect!

Heh.

"Don't believe anything you Read, & only HALF WHAT YOU SEE"
-- Skepticism, ruling mantra in Science

[stopcrazypp]

...
I was watching the Detroit Auto Show 2010, marketing slough by Tesla Motors. WOW, the fluff/hyperbolae I heard from Dir of Engineering (?) was unreal. When the Model S will get high-centered (or other long term stress load), the chassis will transfer the mechanical stress-load to the battery-pack. FACT: they will endure only SO MUCH, before they will crack or split. There is simply no DATA for long-term stress loads (chassis -> battery pack).
...
I guarantee you someone in a Model S is gonna get hurt! (or worse). I'm not being a pessimist, just being realistic.
I think you are missing the major distinction between battery cells (Tesla uses many small 18650 laptop cells) and a battery "pack" (which is inclusive of the metal enclosure designed to protect the individual cells from an impact/intrusion). I don't see any issue with using the pack as a stressed member. Just like how most cars today use the passenger cell (akin to the enclosure part of the battery pack) as a stressed member while placing no mechanical stress on the passengers (akin to the individual cells); the same can be done with the battery pack.

The pack is a stressed member in the Roadster too:
http://www.teslamotors.com/roadster/technology/battery

The pack enclosure is designed to withstand substantial abuse in the vehicle, while maintaining the integrity of the internal components. The pack is a stressed member of the chassis and helps provide rigidity to the rear of the car
The Roadster has been on the market for 4 years, sold over 2000 units, and as vfx says, accumulated 15 million miles of data (the empiricism you are talking about). So far there is no indication that there is any issue with this type of design; I think Tesla has enough data to proceed with the same idea in the Model S.


Hey chimp - you do realize that lipo batteries without battery management are a lot different than the LiMn used in the Volt with regards to safety and stability? Your posts are FUD.
Same as I was about to say about the chemistry. Plus a home brew BMS/charger can't be compared to one any highway capable BEV for sale today (esp. in a pack that has it's own liquid cooling system!). Also, the issue right now isn't really any danger from overcharging/overheating in normal operation.

The issue with the Volt is that the puncturing of the battery cells and coolant line in a severe accident may lead to fires (although delayed). That points to either a defect/design issue (Leaf didn't have similar issues, although it's important to note the battery is air cooled LiMn, not liquid cooled), or that there needs to be special procedures for handling the car after a severe accident (esp. one that punctures the battery compartment).

[chimpanzee]

Hey chimp - you do realize that lipo batteries without battery management are a lot different than the LiMn used in the Volt with regards to safety and stability? Your posts are FUD.

Again, a lack of Engineering "situational awareness". I have a PhD & have DONE digital & analog design.

"We live in an IMPERFECT WORLD"

"Fault Tolerant Computing"

"You can't STOP IT..only CONTROL IT"
-- female Head of Internet Security, Washington DC
[ Web attacks ]

"There is NO SUCH THING as bug-free software"
-- Y.C. Pan, office-mate to me & Martin Eberhard (way back in '81 U of Illinois/Coordinated Science Laboratory/AARG (Advanced Automation Research Group)

[ software & even hardware, is designed by IMPERFECT humans. Remember the Stanford Math prof who tracked down why his computer program spit out BAD result? He traced it to a BUG in the hardware fabrication of the Intel CPU chip!! WOW, if that doesn't send a chill down your spine..nothing will ]

OK, now we address the question of this "Battery Management" thing (hardware & software)

You are talking like it is PERFECT, 100% success in various environments (120 deg in Death Valley, 60 below in Urbana/IL..home of U of Illinois where Martin/me/YC Pan were at in 1981). DO YOU REALLY think this hardware/software can pass these various environmental extremes ("extreme duty environment") with 100% success rate??

Heck no.

Mathematical models, Physical models, Computer models..they ALL have "error bars".

Precision (# bits) /Accuracy (how close it is to reality) /Repeatability (probabilistic nature of measurement, etc)

[ the above is taught in Middle School "Introductory to Physical Science" ]

FACT: there is NO WAY..I mean NO WAY, the various pathological conditions (environment, prolonged shock, worn out battery chemistry, etc) could be modeled in Simulations. Not in Durability/Reliability tests (some fake simulation on track, etc).

Only Real World tests (which is KING)

"Real World Knowledge always TRUMPS Book Knowledge"

"I do not know"
-- 1800's math Giant, "Uncertainty is the ruling paradigm"

If that "flexy" Model S chassis finally breaks, say getting high-centered on object (like a metal paper clip when bent cycled repeatedly), IT WILL DESTROY the battery pack & fire might result. TOo complicated to model, just do real world tests.

Your comments NEVER address worst-case pathological scenarios. I go back to my AUto Racing analogy, race-cars WILL BREAK if you push them hard enough. Have you seen F1 & Indycars in accidents, they are pretty fragile (to minimize weight, increase Power/Weight ratio), they seem to distentegrate. It's designed to ABSORB ENERGY, to protect the driver.

I'm sure Model S engineers are real concerned about weight (cutting corners in ridigity/durability), given early generation Battery Technology. Trying to get as much range. It was reported on a Physics blog that the ~3K lb Tesla Roadster had worse handling, than the equivalent gas Lotus Elise (~2300 lbs). The 900 lb battery pack is a real liability (put in rear), leads to over-steer

I defer to another vehicle that was undergoing Real World Durability/Reliability testing..the Space Shuttle:

Space Shuttle Challenger disaster - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Shuttle_Challenger_disaster)


One of the commission's most well-known members was theoretical physicist Richard Feynman (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Feynman). During a televised hearing, he famously demonstrated how the O-rings became less resilient and subject to seal failures at ice-cold temperatures by immersing a sample of the material in a glass of ice water. He was so critical of flaws in NASA's "safety culture" that he threatened to remove his name from the report unless it included his personal observations on the reliability of the shuttle, which appeared as Appendix F.[41] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Shuttle_Challenger_disaster#cite_note-40) In the appendix, he argued that the estimates of reliability offered by NASA management were wildly unrealistic, differing as much as a thousandfold from the estimates of working engineers. "For a successful technology," he concluded, "reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled."

Recall that Wally Rippel (Tesla engineer hired by Martin from Aerovironment, who worked on GM EV1 prototype along w/Alan Cocconi, who posted Tesla Motors article "Richard Feynman, a curious character") & Alan Cocconi went to Caltech & had Feynman as instructor.

I am saying what R Feynman is saying: "marketing/PR idiots" (similar to Tesla fanboys with NO Engineering background, who read Tesla (or any other mfr for that matter) brochures) are WILDLY UNREALISTIC, as per what I heard from Tesla "propaganda" at last year's Detroit Auto Show. They are "setting themselves up for DISASTER", just like the Space Shuttle. Not listening to the hard-core engineers (like myself, who have ACTUALLY DONE it), who are putting some grounded Reality to the whole situation.

I don't have an Agenda (against Tesla), I absolutely hope they succeed. The eventuality of EV (sooner than later) depends on it. I think Elon Musk's CRAZINESS works to his advantage in "pushing Tesla to success". But, it can also work against him, in pushing the engineers to hard (there ARE limits to EXISTING TECHNOLOGY). WHich is what led to the tragedy: Martin getting pushed out & Wally Rippel (& many others) FIRED..the so-called "stealth bloodbath" (as per Martin's blog)

My agenda is Scientific/Engineering REALITY. As per Feynman, "Nature cannot be Fooled".

Look at the HUGE thread on RCGroups.com & the Failures of LiPo batteries, & the incriminating videos & pics. Any type of "energy density" cell can catch fire, it's a FACT. Firemen call wood "fuel", houses can go up in an instant!

My point is that a relatively new immature Technology like LiPo, LiFe Phosphate, etc simply don't have a Durability/Reliability track-record, to make any sort of valid long-term statements on Validity!

PseudoScience (crackpottery) is all based on Ignorance of STEM (Science Technology Engineering Mathematics), & STEM ignorant public making all sorts of invalid/kook statements. Hate to say it, but most of Tesla Motors Club is just fanboys (like Apple fanboys), they don't argue based on reason, just on Passion (more like fanaticism). THIS will be the enemy of Tesla Motors, just look at the Space Shuttle. They had TWO catastrophic failures (significant delays in the Space Shuttle Program), which laid bare the chronic problems at NASA. I know, since I used to work there (COUGH CHOKE).

BTW, there is an oncoming MAJOR SCANDAL about to hit Caltech JPL NASA, which will basically be an EXTINCTION EVENT. 7 million/yr overbilling by JPL contractor, gone unchecked for god knows how many years.

Tesla is a new company, but they better be "out of the box" in terms of Management & Engineering. During the time about when Tesla almost CLOSED DOWN (down to 9 million in cash, Xmas 2008?), whistleblowers inside company were going Public with damning dysfunctional behavior. Elon Musk even hired a security outfit to track it down (indicates Tesla Motors was dysfunctional on 2 levels: internal dissent & couldn't track it down!). An interesting comment appeared in an article, which I remember to THIS day:

"that Tesla Motors is certainly a funny little company. Not what I consider a smooth running organization"

I happened to talk to Lotus at this last 2011 LA Auto Show, & got an interesting viewpoint (from Lotus insider):

"Tesla was run like a computer company, not like a car company. You can't do shift-control-delete to make software work, you're BUILDING CARS"

I realize Tesla hired a bunch of EXPERIENCED car veterans, that's good. However, I've been sampling some car people (experienced veterans), & it's 100% that Tesla will fail in the Model S

"Experience is a GREAT TEACHER"

They have NO EXPERIENCE in mass manufacturing a car. PERIOD. The Roadster was a systems engineering exercise, all the parts converged to N. Cal, & they assembled it. Look at Fiskar, they seem to be having problems "ramping up" production.

Going back to 2011 LA Auto Show. You can TELL the experience/critical-mass ($$, resources, etc) of the major mfrs, they are GOLIATHS. Tesla is a "David", trying to beat Goliath. They may pull it off, but oddsmakers would be betting against them.

Again, I DO hope they pull off the "David vs Goliath". But, it's an INCREDIBLY competitive business. Little guys get SQUASHED. I mean, opening up dealerships all over the world & trying to compete with other $50K pricepoint luxury sedans. THe name of the game in any business is Customer Service, consumer experience. I guarantee you there will be issues & problems, one mistake (PR disaster, cars w./problems which can't be addressed by scattered dealerships)..GAME OVER. People will abandon ship like a rat in a toilet.

I think Tesla's contribution (Martin's vision) is that of a catalyst, "waking up major Mfrs" that a David could challenge the Goliaths. I went to 2011 LA Auto Show to check out EVs, & that Audi e-tron is pretty killer.

2011 LA Auto Show (http://2011laautoshow.blogspot.com/)
[ will be uploading videos soon, hang in there ]

As is that BMW concept hybrid.

Sun Nov 27 [ '11 LA Auto Show ] - a set on Flickr (http://www.flickr.com/photos/chimpanzee/sets/72157628189469245/with/6418291469/)

You can point to my former grad school officemate Martin Eberhard for that!

"It's good to be IDEALISTIC!"
-- Dr Alan Barr, Caltech Computer Science prof

It was Martin Eberhard's IDEALISM, that created all the exciting new EV activity in Automotive!

[chimpanzee]

I think you are missing the major distinction between battery cells (Tesla uses many small 18650 laptop cells) and a battery "pack" (which is inclusive of the metal enclosure designed to protect the individual cells from an impact/intrusion). I don't see any issue with using the pack as a stressed member. Just like how most cars today use the passenger cell (akin to the enclosure part of the battery pack) as a stressed member while placing no mechanical stress on the passengers (akin to the individual cells); the same can be done with the battery pack.

The pack is a stressed member in the Roadster too:
http://www.teslamotors.com/roadster/technology/battery

The Roadster has been on the market for 4 years, sold over 2000 units, and as vfx says, accumulated 15 million miles of data (the empiricism you are talking about). So far there is no indication that there is any issue with this type of design; I think Tesla has enough data to proceed with the same idea in the Model S.


Same as I was about to say about the chemistry. Plus a home brew BMS/charger can't be compared to one any highway capable BEV for sale today (esp. in a pack that has it's own liquid cooling system!). Also, the issue right now isn't really any danger from overcharging/overheating in normal operation.

The issue with the Volt is that the puncturing of the battery cells and coolant line in a severe accident may lead to fires (although delayed). That points to either a defect/design issue (Leaf didn't have similar issues, although it's important to note the battery is air cooled LiMn, not liquid cooled), or that there needs to be special procedures for handling the car after a severe accident (esp. one that punctures the battery compartment).

I disagree with your flippant remark about R/C electric airplanes as "hobby", home brew chargers. These are NOT home brew, but professionally designed chargers by legit engineering outfits. The LiPo batter packs have sensor leads for each cell, to properly "balance charge" the packs, the chargers support this. Again, I go back to

"we live in an imperfect world"

Some battery packs come shipped as defective, they won't take a "balanced charge". I actually bought a LiPo battery pack, which sat for 3 yrs. It "puffed up", & was in danger of EXPLODING! My house could have "gone up". The Mfr was a major supplier (Korean origins), who mfrs for the Automotive industry!! Just goes to show, how "new" this Technology is, & EVERYONE is learning. "Puffing up" is simple degradation of LiPo batteries, the standard batteries have a shelf-life. That thing is sitting outside in my backyard, I will go & post a picture of it soon.

Electric has REVOLUTIONIZED R/C flying, more so than Automotive! Gas R/C planes are nicknamed "slimers", messy. Again, these vendors have spunoff into DoD/Dept of Defense contractors, a notable one being Aerovironment! (where Alan Cocconi & Wally Rippel used to work). Supplying R/C surveillance aircraft, using the LiPo battery packs charged by legit chargers (not homebrew like you say).

Again, it's Tesla Fanboy syndrome, not properly maintaining PERSPECTIVE:

"+" & "-"

If you don't address minus, that flaw will CREEP into Model S & cause problems! I don't think Tesla has the CRITICAL MASS (customer support in dealerships & even PR) to handle a catastrophic failure. Look at Ford, they are ALWAYS recalling cars. If a major mfr with all the resources CAN have defects in Engineering, what chance does Tesla Motors have? FACT: Problems WILL arise, & how they deal with it is essentially Make/Break for the company

"Life is 20% what happens to you, 80% HOW YOU RESPOND TO IT"
-- a wise man once said

Tesla is completely & totally unprepared to deal with an engineering issue & mass recall. PERIOD. No dealership network, just mobile vans.

To Tesla Fan Boys, try brainstorming on how Tesla or a customer will deal with a Model S engineering "issue", then get back to me. They have scattered dealerships, no way can customers just DRIVE to a dealership, drop it off, get it repaired, then pick it up. They have these roving mobile vans, NO WAY that would address a mass recall, forget it.

THe more I think about this, Tesla was just a "Proof of Concept", NOT a legit automotive start up.

[VolkerP]

This is the Tesla enthusiast forum not the Tesla engineer's board.
What we post here will have NO impact on Tesla's battery pack design.

[Robert.Boston]

Chimp, you fail to address the very facts that you claim to be seeking: Tesla has about 2,000 BEVs on the road with over 15 million miles of data on the battery performance. I'll grant that those Roadster owners have been running a vast experiment, but now the data is in. So why do you ignore those data in reaching your conclusion that the Model S is just a "proof of concept" vehicle?

[dpeilow]

Tesla is completely & totally unprepared to deal with an engineering issue & mass recall. PERIOD. No dealership network, just mobile vans.

Tesla recalls 439 Roadster 2.0 and 2.5 electric cars due to fire hazard -- Engadget (http://www.engadget.com/2010/10/04/tesla-recalls-439-roadster-2-0-and-2-5-electric-cars-due-to-fire/)

[JRP3]

Chimp you are bordering on rambling insanity once again as you did before. Actually you've crossed the border. Keep it in check and stay on topic.

[ckessel]

I have a PhD & have DONE digital & analog design.
So, you don't believe the degree of a very public figure like Elon has been vetted, but we're supposed to believe you have a degree?

This has descended into birther levels of crazy.

[AnOutsider]

Chimp you are bordering on rambling insanity once again as you did before. Actually you've crossed the border. Keep it in check and stay on topic.

Sounds like he has a personal beef with Tesla, especially with all the "Martin and I are chums" talk. Such an obvious bias works against credibility as you can't be seen as objective chimp.

[vfx]

... During the time about when Tesla almost CLOSED DOWN (down to 9 million in cash, Xmas 2008?), whistleblowers inside company were going Public with damning dysfunctional behavior. Elon Musk even hired a security outfit to track it down (indicates Tesla Motors was dysfunctional on 2 levels: internal dissent & couldn't track it down!). An interesting comment appeared in an article, which I remember to THIS day:

Do you have a link to this article? It's old news but might have interesting historical context.

[qwk]

Chimp must have got a job with exxon. He just ignores facts, and posts irrelevant nonsense. If you do indeed have a phd in anything, I hate to say it, but you wasted your money.

[dpeilow]

I personally called U of Penn/Physics prof..NEVER CALLED BACK! Kinda suspect!

You don't say.

[Doug_G]

You don't say.

I suspect sarcasm is lost on him.

Let's be explicit: no prof is ever going to return that call. No interest in stepping into it. Highly unlikely to have open access to student records. 'Nuff said.

[stopcrazypp]

Let's be explicit: no prof is ever going to return that call. No interest in stepping into it. Highly unlikely to have open access to student records. 'Nuff said.
I'm surprised chimp wouldn't know this, given he claims he's a PhD. From my experience as a undergraduate and also working with universities on other projects, student privacy is a huge deal in the US. Even parents have to be given explicit permission in order to access student records, much less unknown third parties.