Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

what is the utility of HODL, if it's possible to ManupilateODL?

In the long run. dividends.

 

[Gigapress]

label me "concerned" (well, hopefully not that type). trying to understand better from a principles standpoint:

what market force(s) fuel or allow this extreme disregard of fundamentals?
what is the mechanism that forces a "reversion to the mean" so to speak in?
does/can this ever happen to other stocks?

seems due to many loopholes MM, hedges, etc can freely manipulate SP without checks and balances. If so, what's to keep this from happening in perpetuity? I always thought it was unsustainable due to some mysterious governing force but these days have be wondering.

what is the utility of HODL, if it's possible to ManupilateODL?

I know of at least two backstops. Maybe others know of more.

1) Tesla starts paying dividends, thereby converting earnings per share into actual cash received by shareholders. Then a low stock price simply translates to a higher annual dividend yield on invested capital. This is the fundamental valuation backstop of any company. We shareholders collectively own Tesla’s bank account and eventually our board of directors will approve distributions back to us. Even for stock buybacks, the fundamental reason why they raise the value per share is the fact that at some point they will result in a higher dividend yield per share, all else being equal, due to the cash distributions being spread across a smaller number of shares. The theoretical extreme possible end game for buybacks is a single share remaining with one person owning the entire company, and the way they’d cash out is by doing a dividend to themself.

As an extreme example, imagine TSLA is hammered down to $69 per share permanently, but then in 2025 Tesla starts paying ever-increasing dividends that add up to $420/share by 2035. Neglecting income tax considerations for simplicity, that would mean if you bought at $69/share then you made 6x your initial investment via accumulated dividends, with presumably more dividends on the way as the company keeps making money. The resale value of your shares would not be very important because you’re still getting paid without selling them to Mr. Market. If an investor believes the net present value of Tesla’s future cash flows per share exceeds the current share price plus an acceptable margin of safety to compensate for risk and uncertainty, then buying is probably a good deal and the option to resell the shares is just a nice side bonus.

2) Some entity, most likely a company or a group of companies and/or high net worth individuals, initiates a buyout attempt to gain a controlling majority ownership stake in Tesla, takes the company private, and then does whatever they want without regard for public market stock trading.

What Is a Buyout, With Types and Examples

A buyout is the acquisition of a controlling interest in a company; it's often used synonymously with the term "acquisition."

www.investopedia.com

As a notable example, this is what happened with Twitter, which if I’m not mistaken was the biggest hostile takeover of all time and it was aided in part by Musk’s use of leverage with a margin loan against his TSLA stock. Leveraged hostile takeovers were especially common in the 1980s, and although they’ve fallen out of fashion they are still possible as far as I’m aware.

 

[StealthP3D]

Not sure how that has any relevance to Elon’s bogus argument for why TSLA has fallen so much in the current rout.

Is this your first bear market? Honest question.

 

[MC3OZ]

Tesla starts paying dividends, thereby converting earnings per share into actual cash received by shareholders.

I think dividends are not as popular in the US where the tax treatment is very different to Australia,

The most effective investment strategy I am aware of is, compounding via reinvestment of dividends, that was a friend running a very successful family trust.

 

[mongo]

"Those shares" aside from yes, being a gift, not only were as you write dependent on hitting goals but they were made dependent on Mr Musk continuing to merit them

Oh, that's what you meant before?
His return on the options and, post exercise, shares is dependent on Tesla's performance and, by extension, his continued leadership. However, his possession of vested options/ shares is not dependent on anything*. If he were fired from Tesla today, he would still be entitled to 11/12 of the 304 million options in the plan already vested and would have a year to exercise them.

Subject to any applicable clawback provisions, policies or other forfeiture terms, once a milestone is achieved, it is forever deemed achieved for determining the vesting of a tranche.

Proxy Statement

*Unless the accounting which was the basis for the tranche vesting was in err.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Gap filled
CGS buying again
buyers stepping in
welcome back to the face ripping rally for christmas

 

[anthonyj]

My acct is down like 3m this year. So wat! I wasn’t planning on selling anytime soon.

This is literally me rn. I got TSLA on the low low and I’ll make a quick double in my swing account like I’ve been doing for years. I’ve never seen sentiment so low for something so dumb. I can not WAIT to snort coke (diet) with my 2018 homies.

 

[Gigapress]

I think dividends are not as popular in the US where the tax treatment is very different to Australia,

The most effective investment strategy I am aware of is, compounding via reinvestment of dividends, that was a friend running a very successful family trust.

Not as popular now but fundamentally they are required at some point for a company to offer financial returns to investors. Otherwise the corporation would just perpetually accumulate cash or shrink the share count via buybacks until one share is left. The ultimate fundamental value comes from distribution of the capital back to shareholders via dividends.

 

[Artful Dodger]

That pool has been reduced. We don't know how much.

Yeah, if that pool is in Beverly Hills, or San Fran. But if the pool includes Georgia, it's increased.

Tesla isn't going to get to 7M/year sales in the U.S. by selling on the coasts. It needs to move into the heartland.

Focus on the new ground to be gained, not on small losses on conquered territory.

Cybertruck.

 

[Discoducky]

No, it wouldn't be stepping down. 25 is greater than 3. By a lot.

I hope so, but I'm used to the first minor update digit needing to be higher to associate it to a forward progress of the code.

Anyways, did a short drive, but it was inconclusive due to the amount of slippery snow.

PSA: Recommend NOT driving with FSD in the snow. Here's why: FSD will go from thinking it is a striped road to an un-striped road (Chuck calls these "unmarked") and can drive off of grippy road and onto loose snow, ice and out of the ruts, then quickly correct. This can be dangerous.

 

[WattsHappening]

Perspective…. (Even if it did drop quite a bit just in the last 3 months.)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605395901450661888

As you say, now do the same since Twitter buyout.

 

[StealthP3D]

weird how "the longer the base, the bigger the breakout" has turned into "the bigger the breakout, the bigger the crash."

I don't see what's 'weird' about that. That is precisely why I was speaking out about rooting for ever higher prices last year. And that I was happy with where the price was at, and I would prefer a period of consolidation vs. continuing to climb to unsustainable levels. But some people didn't like me ruining their dream that the price would continue to climb beyond the fundamentals and downvoted those comments and told me I was wrong.

When a stock climbs too far, too fast, it increases the chances of a bigger correction or a crash. That should be common sense. And the problem with that is it's a very difficult thing to time reliably so it's best to just sit tight. A stock can climb higher, and crash further than you thought either was likely or even possible.

Now that we have swung too far in the opposite direction, some of the same people who were rooting for it to go ever higher are now blaming Elon. I find that rather comical.

 

[Gigapress]

IMHO the vast majority of 'arcane in English' words 'that dude' uses are of latin origin, although some of them came to English from various indo-European tongues. How is it that using language properly is somehow inhibiting civil discourse? He's short on memes, to be sure but memes "meme \MEEM\ noun. 1 : an idea, behavior, style, or usage that spreads from person to person within a culture"
By definition those are unintelligible to the uninitiated and often misleading to those who think they understand.
As for "...stupid people are enticed by complex things" is not that inherently illogical?
Your last line also reflects a certain lack of context. Flemish is an amalgamation of dialects with lexicographical differences that are sometimes vast (look it up). English is quite the same. A native English speaker from, say, West Virginia mountains will probably not understand anything at all with a native English speaker from, say, Chennai while neither one will understand much from a typical native English speaking Cockney.

The point is simple. Dumbing down language and using memes and other colloquial forms is intended linguistically to enhance us-vs-them.

I hope, perhaps vainly, that we all try to communicate with each other here using standard English language words that facilitate use of standard translation tools and dictionaries.
We are all from quite different backgrounds linguistically.
The topic of your ire is a person who uses words that are contained in dictionaries and can easily be understood by nearly anyone with a simple search. No so with many of the colloquial forms, many of which mean entirely different things depending on cultural context. In this forum cultural context is not commonly held.

If I emphasize this excessively it is perhaps because much of the posts here are unintelligible to me and are not easily deciphered with a simple search. Mostly I think my English may be adequate, albeit with typo -laden posts.

So if Audie should 'cool it' with correct word usage how about other people 'cool it' with memes typically used by people with possibly limited vocabularies in the English language.

Effective writing always needs to consider the goal of the communication and the audience. In general writing should be clear and concise, using the simplest combination of the fewest words and sentences necessary to get the job done.

Here the purpose is productive, efficient discussions of Tesla, TSLA and the Investment World.

The audience is a forum with diverse international participants, many of whom use English as a non-native language. English is of course the primary language of Tesla the corporation and the primary shared international language of business, so we use it as a tool. Just as memes, slang and pop culture references can be exclusionary and confusing, frequently using arcane words that aren’t in the top few thousand most common words in modern English vocabulary and convoluted grammatical structures is generally overkill for this forum and tends to be exclusionary and confusing to members, whether current or prospective lurkers, who may have good input but are relatively weak in their knowledge of English. I would like to hear more perspective from Italians and Koreans and Brazilians and not primarily those of us in the UK and former British colonies.

The full breadth and complexity of English prose can be wonderful for literature or in academic settings within English-speaking institutions, but is quite unnecessary for investment discussions where the best dictionary lookup is no dictionary lookup and where ideally a sentence only needs to be read once to be comprehended. It already takes enough time to keep up with this thread.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Yeah, if that pool is in Beverly Hills, or San Fran. But if the pool includes Georgia, it's increased.

Tesla isn't going to get to 7M/year sales in the U.S. by selling on the coasts. It needs to move into the heartland.

Focus on the new ground to be gained, not on small losses on conquered territory.

Cybertruck.

Bingo.

That and keeping the SC network proprietary to suppress competition. There is no room for fee fees in business.

 

[Artful Dodger]

My read is that there are those that believe the bird made Musk vulnerable and they see an opportunity to gain his TSLA shares at a discount and mess him up with Tesla and the bird. (Mind you, I’m *not* blaming Elon—He’s fighting the good fight and the forces of darkness are fighting back)

All the money gushing in for Big Oil and their bankers offers plenty of ammo. But how much are they really willing to lose from their short positions when the tide turns?

The Street wants to flush retail out of TSLA before they buy TSLA back up to flog to Main Street via various funds.

All the amateurs in options incents the Street to both increase volatility and create plateaus in the stock price range. How much longer do they risk keeping these amateurs under water in the face of diminishing returns?

When and how does this unwind? Hard to say, but this is surreal (we’ve a PEG less than .2 now, if I’m not mistaken). One chink in the-sky-is-falling-all-the-time-and-everywhere narrative could trip the spring: There is no honor among thieves after all.

Or, it could take awhile. I’m not happy with this share price, but I’m long and I’m patient.

Nominated for "Moderators' Choice: Posts of Particular Merit". Thank-you.

 

[StealthP3D]

Well the difference for Auntie this time is she bought low... /s

And she sold when prices were a lot higher. Which raises the question, where are all the people brashly telling her how stupid she was for selling at such a low price? That's right, they are hiding in the corner, hoping no one remembers their harsh criticisms of her trading abilities and acting like they were trading geniuses that knew better than she.

 

[EVWatcher]

Perspective…. (Even if it did drop quite a bit just in the last 3 months.)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605395901450661888

I have to admit I’m a little shocked by these graphs. I’ve honestly tuned out and focus more on personal life rather than on teslas numbers lately and just believed growth was still solidly above 40% yoy. Are these charts accurate? This is not the picture I was perceiving from the last few earnings calls.

Edit; did I just got so engrossed in Optimus/robotaxis/tesla energy that I missed tesla auto stalling out super hard this year?

 

[Prunesquallor]

General Motors Co (GM.N) said Tuesday it is recalling 140,000 Chevrolet Bolt EVs in North America because the carpet could catch fire after a crash where a front seat belt pretensioner deploys

GM recalls 140,000 Chevrolet Bolt EVs over fire risks

General Motors Co said Tuesday it is recalling 140,000 Chevrolet Bolt EVs in North America because the carpet could catch fire after a crash where a front seat belt pretensioner deploys.

www.reuters.com

edit: and the amazing thing, given Reuters, is that they didn’t find a way to work “Tesla" into the headline.

 

[thesmokingman]

General Motors Co (GM.N) said Tuesday it is recalling 140,000 Chevrolet Bolt EVs in North America because the carpet could catch fire after a crash where a front seat belt pretensioner deploys

GM recalls 140,000 Chevrolet Bolt EVs over fire risks

General Motors Co said Tuesday it is recalling 140,000 Chevrolet Bolt EVs in North America because the carpet could catch fire after a crash where a front seat belt pretensioner deploys.

www.reuters.com

How many times is it now that they are recalling Bolts for fires? I lost count!

 

[EVWatcher]

I have to admit I’m a little shocked by these graphs. I’ve honestly tuned out and focus more on personal life rather than on teslas numbers lately and just believed growth was still solidly above 40% yoy. Are these charts accurate? This is not the picture I was perceiving from the last few earnings calls.

Edit; did I just got so engrossed in Optimus/robotaxis/tesla energy that I missed tesla auto stalling out super hard this year?

Based on troys numbers I feel like there’s some X factor I’m not seeing in the graphs above but 43% growth sounds good to me.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605319330039840770