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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
FWIW the green % on my -190cs for Friday actually went DOWN as the stock dropped from 175 to 173.... IV spike?
It's getting dumped with the meme stocks. However, doesn't negate the fact that 180 was traded. If I was to be wrong, we'd break 167. I don't think we will. As @Knightshade mentioned above, calls are not being dumped. This looks highly mechanical. Looks to me, once the market made ATH, money got pulled out from the memes but not before TSLA completed a clear 5 wave impulse up from the low. I've trimmed my CC's for next week. Do your own DD.
I'm going to sit on my hand until 1 of 2 things happens: either we rocket or we break 167. Come to papa.
I will be surprised if the SP doesn't recover based on Elon's FSD Tweets about FSD monthly take rate and 12.4 coming soon with 10X fewer interventions. This drop doesn't make sense to me.
Thanks much! Dealers may need to buy as we head closer to 1500, market participants gamma magnet near 1400, 1500 tallest call wall, 1400 slightly less. I'll decide to fish or cut bait later today.
I have end of May 170CCs that still have almost $5 extrinsic in them. I could roll to end of June 180 for minimal debit. I can wait longer and hope I get lucky with a drop in SP. I could roll to Jan 2025 240 (but then I have no income from those shares for 8 months). Thoughts?
Didn't go to 190, but this may still be the last refueling station. Good luck!
As it relates to this Friday’s expiration, is the market saying that it does not want TSLA to close the week above 180? That is my sense based on price action and the options positioning/GEX levels that others have posted… FWIW (probably not worth much tho)
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
TBF since he provides no actual take rate #, nor any actual base the 10x is from, neither is really useful info (and a full on bear could easily read the LACK of detail as meaning the #s still suck, they're just higher than they were)
The issue though is the pace of meaningful progress has slowed (relatively). 12.4 with actual smart summon and reverse was supposed to be out this time last month. Tesla’s gotta keep coming out with big updates on a consistent pace for Wall St to keep applying more valuation.
If what Elons is tweeting is accurate in terms of disengagements I would expect it to impact the stock price. But it’s still like 2-3 weeks out from wide release, nearly 2 months later than expected, and we don’t have clear idea if it actually includes actual smart summon and reverse.
So 12.4 needs to deliver to really reignite the autonomy value rally that has faded quite a bit since we’ve only had minor updates in the past 2 months
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quick 700 bucks got me to close and re-think what i wanna do
(fear and greed ...)We have
Pros
.macro, inflation news and possibility of rate cuts
.FSD
Cons.
.Elons comp vote
.Q2 P&D
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at the rate this is going, it does look like my SMCI cost basis 901.66 will quickly reduce to 850 and i am finally out, which means DITM CC + Stock Repair is a super deadly combination where income is virtually guaranteed and there is no possibility of capital loss (unless SMCI goes bankrupt)another thing i learned is that the strategy is almost delta-neutral (websites didn't teach this
long x1 = 50Δ
short x2 = 54Δ
net = negligible -4Δ
by buying 4 shares, i become delta-neutral and have eliminated the risk resulting from stock moves (ie, unrealized gain/loss stays 0 until expiry as long as i keep/update the hedge daily)
what did i learn?
- when stock fell from 900 to 700, there was still about $250/wk OTM income while waiting for sp to rise; this worst-case scenario in itself is already very good (ie getting paid to wait it out)
- when stock traded sideways, there was Stock Repair income while waiting for sp to rise; ~$1000/wk per contract
- when stock rose to 850, i keep $812 for my trouble, and the Wheel round 2 starts again
- in other words, there is income down or sideways or up, and covered call means there is no chance of blowing up acct
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