Russia/Ukraine conflict

[SageBrush]

This link says that about 60% of Russian oil and gas exports are from Baltic seaports, and that the two targeted by UKR this week are the two major sites. If correct, and UKR can keep them offline, that sounds like a massive blow to the Russian war machine. Best news I've read in quite some time.

Tankers subject to the price cap policy transporting oil products, chemicals, and LPG handled 63% of the total volume of products. The remaining volume was transported via “shadow” tankers. This month, 59% of Russia's total oil exports were shipped from Russian Baltic Sea ports. ... ... Should Ukraine successfully strike Russia's two major oil terminals in the Baltic Sea, Ust-Luga and Primorsk, it could halt the export of 1.5 million barrels of oil per day.

 

[wdolson]

This link says that about 60% of Russian oil and gas exports are from Baltic seaports, and that the two targeted by UKR this week are the two major sites. If correct, and UKR can keep them offline, that sounds like a massive blow to the Russian war machine. Best news I've read in quite some time.

Though economically this is not good for the world economy. We do need to move away from oil as fast as we can, but right now, the world is still very dependent on oil. Shut off a significant portion of Russian oil and oil prices worldwide will go up. Even in the United States which is now a net oil exporter. A lot of democracies are having elections this year.

As much as I like seeing Ukrainian success, I am concerned about this factor.

Oil prices haven't shot up sharply since the attack, which is good, but a number of grades have been inching up a bit the last couple of weeks.

 

[Unpilot]

Though economically this is not good for the world economy. We do need to move away from oil as fast as we can, but right now, the world is still very dependent on oil. Shut off a significant portion of Russian oil and oil prices worldwide will go up. Even in the United States which is now a net oil exporter. A lot of democracies are having elections this year.

As much as I like seeing Ukrainian success, I am concerned about this factor.

Oil prices haven't shot up sharply since the attack, which is good, but a number of grades have been inching up a bit the last couple of weeks.

Unfortunately, we are not going to get off our oil addiction without pain.

For my kid's sake, I prefer we pull this bandage off NOW.

 

[navguy12]

From my morning Guardian news feed:

• A Mexican border security deal in the US Senate is being finalised in a painstakingly negotiated compromise aimed at unlocking Republican support to replenish US wartime aid for Ukraine. But far-right House Republicans under the sway of Donald Trump have indicated that they want to block any bipartisan deal in order to hamper Joe Biden’sprospects for re-election as president – even if it leaves chaos at the US-Mexico border. “Let me tell you, I’m not willing to do too damn much right now to help a Democrat and to help Joe Biden’s approval rating,” Troy Nehls, a Texas Republican, told CNN.
• Moderate Republican congressman Dan Crenshaw has criticised Maga Republicans not willing to work with Biden on border security and Ukraine aid. Crenshaw told MSNBC that some Republicans were saying “we’ll never vote for it if it’s attached to Ukraine aid. Really? We get meaningful border policy with the Ukraine aid and you’re not going to vote for that? You want Russia to win more than you want border policy changes? Some people say Biden wants it now because it’s helpful to him politically? OK! I want border security, that’s what I told my constituents I would do for them. So if we can get that deal, that’s a no-brainer.”

Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 699

Riposte to Lavrov at UN security council for ‘pursuit of obliteration of Ukraine’; Turkish parliament due to debate Sweden’s Nato membership

www.theguardian.com

 

[iPlug]

Following Ukraine’s successful attack on the oil/LNG export terminal in St. Petersburg…

Unclear if slipped out of a window or slipped something into his drink.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1749715102431916180

 

[Artful Dodger]

Looks like the oil/gas terminal by St. Petersburg struck by Ukrainian drones a few nights ago will be at reduced capacity from some time:

Hahaha, good! And you just know those Russians were fighting that fire with seawater (salty goodness loves steel). Well done!

 

[SwTslaGrl]

Hahaha, good! And you just know those Russians were fighting that fire with seawater (salty goodness loves steel). Well done!

Well, it's more brackish water in the Baltic sea but I'm holding my thumbs.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well, it's more brackish water in the Baltic sea but I'm holding my thumbs.

Fukushima wasn't a write-off until the Japanese decide to use seawater to cool the reactors. Now they've got the perfect site for solar power plants (for at least 10,000 years)

 

[navguy12]

From a paywalled story in today’s Globe and Mail:

Making peace with Russia now would be surrender, Ukrainian winner of Nobel Peace Prize says​

“…Both the U.S. and Germany are reported to have nudged President Volodymyr Zelenskyto be more open to a negotiated settlement, and opinion polls in Ukraine suggest that the idea is becoming slightly more palatable here too. Support for negotiation rose to 19 per cent from 10 per cent between May and December of last year as the second anniversary of the war approaches, though the vast majority still oppose any territorial concessions…”

”…But Ms. Matviichuk says that any deal that leaves Russian troops occupying Ukrainian land is no peace at all. “Peace doesn’t come when a country that was invaded stops fighting. Because it’s not a peace, it’s occupation,” Ms. Matviichuk told The Globe and Mail in an interview at a café in the trendy Podil neighbourhood of Kyiv.

She said she and the Centre for Civil Liberties had learned through a decade of dealing with human-rights cases in Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine that life in those regions was anything but peaceful. Russia illegally seized and annexed the strategic Crimean Peninsula in 2014, and Russian-backed forces have ruled parts of the southeastern Donbas region since the same year…”

Making peace with Russia now would be surrender, Ukrainian winner of Nobel Peace Prize says

As Zelensky faces pressure for a negotiated deal with Russian invaders, Oleksandra Matviichuk stresses that there’s a difference between peace and occupation

www.theglobeandmail.com

 

[navguy12]

As expected, the Turkish parliament has approved Sweden's NATO membership. This means that another important hurdle has been overcome for the Swedes to join the military alliance. Only NATO member state Hungary now has to agree.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1749892981572690389

 

[iPlug]

Putin on how he keeps winning:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1749905210489589821

https://twitter.com/x/status/1749910207344398518

 

[madodel]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1749892981572690389

I wonder what the price was to buy off Erdoğan and what the price will be to buy off Orbán.

 

[wdolson]

Unfortunately, we are not going to get off our oil addiction without pain.

For my kid's sake, I prefer we pull this bandage off NOW.

There are a number of elections this year. The UK is fine as far as Ukraine is concerned, but the best outcome for Ukraine in the US election is for the current administration to continue and economic issues always play a big role. Fuel prices need to decline this year to help the outcome of the election.

From my morning Guardian news feed:

Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 699

Riposte to Lavrov at UN security council for ‘pursuit of obliteration of Ukraine’; Turkish parliament due to debate Sweden’s Nato membership

www.theguardian.com

The Senate is fairly easy to negotiate, the House is a different story. Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House, said a week or two back that the only deal that would be acceptable to his caucus would be a complete shut down of the US-Mexico border. That border is the busiest in the world with over $600 million in commerce crossing the border every day. Shutting down that border would paralyze the US economy.

 

[navguy12]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1749892981572690389

It looks increasingly likely that Hungarian government officials have consistently lied to Swedish and NATO/EU counterparts, and that Hungary would not ratify Sweden’s NATO accession before Turkey.I reported more than a week ago that Hungary’s president already hinted at this.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1749738846692974970

 

[DanCar]

... Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House, said a week or two back that the only deal that would be acceptable to his caucus would be a complete shut down of the US-Mexico border. ...

Likely in reference to illegal border crossings, not legal ones.

 

[wdolson]

Likely in reference to illegal border crossings, not legal ones.

That will happen right after they shut down the illegal drug trade. In the real world it isn't possible.

 

[DanCar]

That will happen right after they shut down the illegal drug trade. In the real world it isn't possible.

Agree. They should make it legal and tax it instead. Profit vs loss.

 

[Tiger]

I wonder what the price was to buy off Erdoğan and what the price will be to buy off Orbán.

As we learned from the Swedish strike, Swedes don't play softball.

 

[Tiger]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1749738846692974970

Hungarian politicians lie? Get them out of there.

 

[Tiger]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1749738846692974970

It just occurred to me: is Hungary spying within Nato for Russia? How can we be sure?