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Presumably Tesla is using vision transformers, since Elon was making fun of Yann Lecun on Twitter one or two days ago and stated that Tesla isn’t using CNNs anymore (or at least not a lot). Is there any other approach to vision other than CNNs and vision transformers?

It’s really crazy that Elon had a vision of FSD earlier than the point in time that the transformer architecture was published. “Attention is all you need” was published in 2017: Attention Is All You Need - Wikipedia

Those are not deep underground.

Fossil fuels.

Een tijdje geleden heeft een kennis zonder benzine gevallen op de autostrade (in Belgie). Van de pechverhelpingsdienst (inbegrepen in de huur van de huurwagen) moest de wagen ook getakeld worden tot het dichtbijzijnde benzinestation. Ik vermoed dat dat betekent dat je helemaal niets mag doen op...

The introduction rate of non-autopilot and app features has gone up recently. It’s as if they now have more c++ developers available. Another side effect of removing the bulk of the autopilot c++ code.

Flanders will reach its target of having fast chargers every 25km along its highways by the end of next year. This is ahead of the EU’s target of fast chargers every 60km in 2025: https://www.tijd.be/politiek-economie/belgie/vlaanderen/Vlaamse-snelwegen-liggen-voor-op-Europese-laadpaaleisen/10547899

I have the following questions in my mind and I don’t know the answers but I have the gut feeling that the answers point to a relatively short term AI stock price spike (just like what happened a couple of years ago with EVs): - How many companies can spend $1B on AI compute? - Is it possible to...

30 charging locations planned in Flanders for electric trucks in the next 2 years: https://www.tijd.be/dossiers/de-verdieping/komende-twee-jaar-30-laadpleinen-voor-e-trucks-in-belgie/10546846 “A European trucker needs to rest for 45min after driving for 4.5 hours. During that time the truck can...

Look at this, it should give us a good idea of the Robotaxi dimensios. Just look at the positions of the McGyvered cameras:

First picture of new supercharger with ‘cofunded by EU’ labels: Remember that some time ago Tesla received huge EU grants for upgrading/expanding the supercharger network:

I just wanted to give an example about NVidia’s competition, that some of the companies with the largest AI needs build, and keep improving (whether it is 2x or 5x is not that important), their own AI chips. Because it’s cheaper than buying NVidia solutions. At some point in time, NVidia’s...

Google releases new TPU almost 5x faster than it’s predecessor:

The Foundation is fiction. Just like psychohistory. Let’s not confuse a made up science from a fiction book with real science.

Unece/EU countries may get less restrictive Autopilot according to some proposed changes: “ One of the proposed amendments is to stop hands on requests on highways unless a system boundary is detected. To me this reads as a step in the right direction to get rid of the nag. The other is about...

The demand in 2023 was artificially high due to an endless stream of promotions, from inventory discounts to fsd transfers and even free supercharging transfers. I’m not even mentioning lower prices. I was one of the persons incentivized by free supercharging transfer to buy 1 or 2 quarters...

The Prius that I had before I got a Model S had adaptive cruise that was functional but much worse than the Tesla. It only detected vehicles that switch to your own lane when they’re already in the middle of your lane. I had many times that I had to brake myself to prevent an accident. But that...

Would you buy a new car without Autopilot? I’m not even talking about FSD.

I’m currently on holiday in France and I was surprised that practically every big grocery shop has at least a couple of fast chargers. Quite the change since our last holiday in France. I stumbled on this X post with an overview of the fast charging market in France. Tesla is still the biggest...

@unk45. As an illustration, see the following press release about the state of the car market in Belgium Q1 24: Analyse du marché automobile au 1er trimestre 2024 | FEBIAC (I found this article while looking if the april data was already released). The Model Y is the most sold car model in...

Yes, AJ is absolutely a must-follow on X.

If you’re moving just for the fast chargers, you’d need to be in Flanders. Wallonia is a couple of years behind Flanders in that respect, for various reasons. Mainly because Flanders is richer with more EV’s, and the Wallonian government not wanting to subsidise rich EV drivers.

According to industry insiders, Belgium is on its way to have an oversupply of fast chargers in about 2 years: https://www.tijd.be/ondernemen/milieu-energie/energyvision-installeert-goedkope-snelladers-bij-doe-het-zelfketen/10512454.html The company quoted in the article believes that at that...

Yes, I also had similar experiences a couple of years ago in France. Which is why I have a wallet full of charging cards. And use local apps and try out prepayment at home before leaving on holiday. With the recent EU regulation to accept any credit or debit card just like a gas station I...

True. It’s 100% margin on each additional subscription sold. Welcome to the world of software.

It’s a revenue stream the competition doesn’t have for the foreseeable future. So it’s a competitive advantage.

100% margins versus 10% margins.

Our government has pushed for fast chargers with a lot of incentives. The end result is that there are fast chargers everywhere. I count at least 20 locations in the immediate (let’s say 5 to 10 minutes drive) neighbourhood of my local highway exit. They all charge around 0,85 €/kWh. They are...

What if firing the Supercharger team is similar to to firing the Starlink team a couple of years ago:

I didn’t think of that. IIRC, that’s in Buffalo New York. Maybe the prefab supercharger production process needs a lot less personnel now due to automation. The leaked mail makes it sound like Tesla is stopping the rollout of the supercharger network. Let’s hope that’s not the case and it’s...

There’s a good chance it is similar to the 3000 layoffs rumour in Berlin (which turned out to be a couple of hundred): highly exaggerated. How could the Supercharger team be 500 man to start with? AFAIK, most of the work neccessary to open a SUC (landscaping and digging and such, even setting up...

Shall we refer to the $140 local bottom of last week as the “Gerber-Black” bottom?

I expect a subscription with a price per mile for people for which the subscription is too expensive.

You assume that sales will remain at 2m, that is not realistic. Sales will keep increasing, and certainly as long as Tesla is the only company offering FSD. You assume that the monthly price will remain at 100 dollar, that is not realistic for unsupervised FSD.

Google has its own AI chip designed and is on generation 4 of 5 or so. For internal use and available via the cloud. Microsoft is designing its own chip, maybe already finished, I don’t know. For use on Azure. And thus automatically for OpenAI. Apple has its own AI neural engine, and is...

Tomorrow is a good day to charge your EV in Western Europe:

In Belgium the new battery parks are located on the premises of old coal or gas electricity stations, reusing an otherwise obsolete grid connection.

Their fleet may be FSD capable, but they do not have the right to use them as robotaxi.

Another thing that Elon mentioned (and IIRC confirmed by Ashok) was that FSD is already a good driver in other countries. That is something I didn’t expect. Looking at our local road infra, there are loads of situations that do not occur in the US. Like country roads that are so narrow that cars...

I don’t claim to have better insights, but days like today remind me why I just hold. I won’t sell as long as Tesla’s long term future looks bright to me. And because I don’t know what to buy with the proceeds anyway.

You don’t take into account the 2 most important reasons why free cash flow was negative: - $2.7B growth in inventory, which was confirmed on the CC to be sold during Q2 - $1B AI infrastructure capex. These 2 items were choices done by the Tesla management team. They could have chosen...

I also remember ‘No’

What else could it be? Model 3 has just been refreshed and still doesn’t use the megacasts that make the larger Model Y so much cheaper to produce. Model Y is on its own refresh trajectory. It would make sense to already include stuff like 48V architecture and steer-by-wire. Model Y is already...

And the (WIFI) bandwidth needed to get the input data to the car and the results back.

For me, the most important comment Elon made was (maybe because I didn’t realise it until Elon said it) that , if Tesla realises FSD, all other manufacturers will have to license it, because otherwise nobody will buy their cars.

And still 200M$ free cash flow. If Tesla had decided to somehow match the production with the consumption and not invest in extra AI compute, they would have had 3.9B$ free cash flow. EDIT: I have to correct myself, free cash flow was negative -2.5B$. So without those items free cash flow could...

And maybe introduce a version with an even smaller battery. There are now in many places so much superchargers that some people may prefer charging more than paying more for the car. Would also make sense for a second or third car.

Driven by 2.7B$ inventory increase and 1B$ AI compute. Not a bad reason IMO. It would have been much worse if it was caused by selling cars below cost.

You mean like Toyota and hydrogen? :)

I have drastically cut down my Facebook usage mainly because it kept presenting me views exactly the opposite of mine, the FB algorithm even preferring to present me posts making fun of my views. Mainly the “electrisch rijden doen we op de kermis” views (the dutch equivalent of coal rolling)...